According to 538, a website that does poll analysis, things are looking pretty good for Democrats. Josh Shapiro is clearly favored to win the Governor's race. His chance of victory is currently projected at 96%. John Fetterman is projected to win the Senate seat, with a 72% likelihood. Oz's chances have improved markedly over the last month, Though Pa-7 is a tossup, Susan Wild has a 51% chance of retaining her seat. She's gained a lot of ground since July.
33 comments:
If these polls are correct the people of Penna. are as stupid as they come, Don't they go food shopping, DO they like the border the Drugs etc., do they like their 401 plans maybe they like going to the gas station. Maybe they want a war. Penna deserve what they vote for.
I only trust the polls that indicate what I want to hear. All the rest are fabricated nonsense!
Bernie, Bernie, Bernie! 538, created by Nate Silver, owned origionally by ESPN, transferred to ABC News, which now is owned by The Disney Corp, one of the "wokest" of all in this 'democracy' which is actually a constitutional republic. Yeah, let's pin our hopes on this malarkey, you lying dog-faced pony soldier.....
If Women go out to vote then the Democrats will win big. A womens body is her own body and no one should take away laws concerning abortion. So Ladies go and voice your opinions and vote your body. Good Luck.
Pa. will go down the drain even further with those people representing us.
Polls taken in this political climate are not accurate.
I dont think 538 can really accurately handicap elections due to the fact polls miss large portions of the electorate. To generate a response with 500 likely voters, a pollster has to contact 3x as many due to the amount of people that don’t answer polls. Given the state of the country, are you better off now than you were two years ago? This question is never asked and its more important than ever this election. Susan wild will probably lose by a hair. Fetterman as well. Shapiro will win the governor race by a landslide. Ticket splitting will return.
While I'm not a poll denier, I think they are off this year. Most polls are polling registered voters rather than likely voters. My thought is that 1 registered Republicans generally turn out in slightly higher numbers than registered Dems (though mail in voting may change that equation), and 2 that despite media hype about Roe being overturned, etc. this will be a high turnout election for Republicans. Polls like Trafalgar should be watched closely, as they poll likely voters and account for the silent Republican poll phenomenon. I think those factors will mean Oz wins the Senate and Scheller wins PA-07, though both will be very close. Short of a miracle or record-setting turnout, Mastriano will not win. I know this is anecdotal and I disagree with their reasoning, but I know too many registered Republicans openly saying they will vote for Shapiro to have any hope that Mastriano can win this race.
Sadly, the GOP has embraced the lunatics of the far right more than the Dems have embraced the lunatics on the left (though they are certainly holding hands with them).
Too many Republicans have been too quiet and not spoken out against the extreme elements of their base. Whether its cowardice or simple self-preservation, it's enough for independent/moderate voters who see that silence as agreement with the misguided and self-destructive "America First" ideology.
Oz has done a better job at attempting to put some daylight between himself and Trump which is why he's at least in the ballpark. Mastriano has really leaned into the stupidity of election fraud and all of the other nonsense spouted by the conspiracy crackpots out there and that is why he is not even a consideration in most voters eyes.
I love how the GOP paints Wild as someone who votes with Pelosi/Shumer 100% of the time as a scare tactic, yet assumes nobody would think that Scheller isn't going to do the same thing in reverse.
Both parties are horrible and do not give two shits about their constituents. That said, only the GOP seems eager to tear the entire country down into some dystopian Hunger Games society.
Folks,538 does not do polls. It analyzes and rate the quality of them, based on past performance. It runs simulations and then gives its likelihoods.
"Polls like Trafalgar should be watched closely, as they poll likely voters and account for the silent Republican poll phenomenon. " Trafalgar is good, but missed in 2020.
Then let us pray that the silent majority of voters vote Republican because this prediction of a Democratic win is not only frightening but is truly another step towards Communism in our country and, more importantly, in the beautiful state of Pennsylvania.
Mastriano will get a vote from me, only because I do not want to vote for Shapiro, but Shapiro will win. Mastriano is an embarassment. Maybe I won't vote at all for the Governor. But the idea that Fetterman, living with mommy and daddy until 50, and then having tax issues? I mean, come on man!! Who would vote for this guy?? As for Wild, she is on her way to being a career politician. No thanks. Scheller, even with all of her baggage will get a vote from me. Can't hurt to give her a chance.
Trafalgar was right just couldn't account for all the illegal ballots dropped off at drop boxes. these drop boxes are riddled with fraud.
https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/lehigh-da-hundreds-illegally-dropped-off-more-than-one-ballot-in-drop-boxes-no-prosecutions-planned/
"Trafalgar was right just couldn't account for all the illegal ballots dropped off at drop boxes. these drop boxes are riddled with fraud.
https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/lehigh-da-hundreds-illegally-dropped-off-more-than-one-ballot-in-drop-boxes-no-prosecutions-planned/"
This is nonsense. One person, most likely a spouse, might illegally drops off a ballot for another person. There is nothing in the law that renders that ballot illegal. Nor is there even the slightest suggestion of fraud.
I do agree that ballot harvesting is a concern, but that has nothing to do with the drop box. That can occur at the mailbox. It is a weakness of mail-in ballots because some folks can be pressured into voting a certain way once they get their ballots. They can also sell their vote. There has been some evidence of it happening in a GOP primary where charges have been filed. But there is no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud.
If I were to reform the system, it would be to ban the use of the postal system and keep the drop boxes, but man them with elections officials who could receive the ballots.
True the women vote is important they helped to give Biden.
I don't really consider anything else in my voting choice except abortion. I will endure a bad economy, sky high inflation, worldwide disorder, and all the rest if young girls are promised the right to have unprotected sex without worrying about the consequences. Nothing else matters.
12:46- I love my Drugs! And, for those Halloween trick-or-treaters (Actually, Democrat takers), don't worry about the candy I hand out. I like my Marijuana gummies and Fentanyl sweet tarts too much to give them to you.
Vote early and often, Democrats! And, Harvest plentiful! We can't cheat enough. Republicans, stay home. Dominion voting machines will only switch your vote anyway.
Ah, yes. I forgot. Please post the conservative leaning poll websites so I can take that information and support it by spreading it around the internet…
All I want for Xmas is for all these fascists in your comment section to self-combust, and for politics to be boring again…
Hi, RINO here, if our party would get its head out of its ass and put up an electable candidate we wouldn't be in this mess. I'm looking at all you piss pants MAGA commenters on here.
Play stupid games win stupid prizes.
Mastri-o-stolen is nuts
Shapiro is an opportunist of the first order
Fetterman comes from a good place it's just not reality
Oz, well Oz is a Democrat
Our choices suck and we have no one to blame but ourselves.
Republicans' only hope is that 538 is a comically inaccurate and highly partisan puddle of diarrhea. Other than that, this is tough news to take, especially keeping in mind how chatty Republican likely voters are when contacted by pollsters. Rs win both houses. The easy get the House. They take three seat edge in Senate. It's tough to get re-elected after throwing the economy into recession. Jimmy Carter and George Bush the Elder learned this. We threw their asses out at the first opportunity because they wrecked our economy. Biden has done worse and should expect worse.
10:50--you type of people should be deported to China.
Republicans have bad candidates. Trump needs to go away he’s killing them. Republicans will still get the House which will create grid lock. Grid lock is good.
3:27 are you calling the democratic candidate's good candidates -you must be on some other planet. By the way Republicans will win the house easily.
Fetterman did an interview on MSNBC today. It didn’t go well he clearly has brain damage from his stroke. I feel bad for the guy but he doesn’t belong anywhere near the senate.
Reading these comments here makes it plainly obvious why Republicans are always crying about election fraud. The cocksure comments of them taking back the house and senate are hilarious examples of them living inside their own fart chambers and seeing/hearing only news and views that they agree with. Then when reality doesn't reflect their desired outcome, it can only mean that someone is cheating.
Further illustrating the stupidity is their passionate belief that ANY political party has some sort of magical spell or control on the economy, price of food/gas, and that GOP control of the Presidency, and/or congress would make things all better.
People will actually vote for Mastriano: frightening he may win.
Who cares about Oz/Fetterman -- both essentially Dems, altho Oz is more easily swayed by daddies.
Mastriano is another Trump which we do not need. Oz is a joke. I wish I had more competient Republicans to vote for but I’m going to hold my nose and vote for Sharpio and Fetterman.
12:46
You’re one sickening Republican, please move to Florida since that is where you belong.
6:12--you are a typical left-wing democrat who is afraid of the truth which shows all os how well you people govern
No one took anything away. It is on the State, as it always should have been. Abortion was never a right.
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