Steve Thode has been tracking the COVID-19 data here in the Lehigh Valley since the pandemic's inceptions. He noticed and reported on spikes and drops before just about everyone. He's also refrained from trying to turn this into a political football, although he has pointed out some startling weaknesses in the way the state collects and disseminates data. He now is trying to determine how deadly the Omicron surge has been. Here's his analysis.
Here's my first comparison of cases and deaths for both the 20-21 COVID "Surge" and the 20-22 COVID "Surge" in Lehigh and Northampton counties.
Before I display the chart, several points of explanation:
1) I chose the starting point for each surge as December 5 (about a week or so after Thanksgiving);
2) I start counting deaths seven days later. Although I don't know the exact average time between someone getting a positive COVID test and their subsequent death, an average of seven days seems to fit fairly well;
3) Death reports by county are typically fully-updated on Thursdays, but there is also a delay in reporting deaths through the NEDSS system of up to 5 days. So, the most reliable report on total deaths is those recorded through January 22.
4) Hence, the chart shows reported COVID cases for the time period December 5 - January 15 for both years; and, reported deaths for the time period December 12 - January 22.
Here's the chart:
The total number of cases is reported on the left axis. As of January 15, 2021, last winter's surge had 22,537 new cases for Lehigh and NorCo combined; while as of January 15, 2022, this winter's surge had 38,271 new cases for Lehigh and NorCo combined. That's an increase of 70% this winter compared to last winter.
The total number of deaths is reported on the right axis. From December 12, 2020 to January 22, 2021, last winter's surge had a total of 427 recorded deaths for Lehigh and NorCo combined. From December 12, 2021 to January 22, 2022, the current surge has had a total of 266 recorded deaths for Lehigh and NorCo combined. That's a decrease of almost 38%.
Based strictly on this data, and, on this methodology, as of January 15, last winter's surge has proven fatal in about 1.9% of all reported COVID cases. For this winter's surge, about 0.9% of all reported COVID cases have proven fatal.
Some cautions are in order: 1) there is no reliable source for determining how many of this winter's cases were Delta and how many were Omicron. Nor is there any reliable source for determining how many deaths were those infected with Delta and how many deaths were those infected with Omicron (the CDC has, so far, released no data on the differences). Thus, we have no way of knowing exactly how deadly Delta has been relative to Omicron this winter; and, 2) I use only reported cases. To the extent that, especially this winter, many people self-tested at home, and did not report positive cases, this winter's cases are probably higher than the actual number reported. Likewise, there may have been many more asymptomatic cases this winter - especially of Omicron - which, obviously, were never tested, nor reported.
14 comments:
No chart
Not to worry. Word is now being spread that a brand new Covid variant, BA.2, is being discovered and has reportedly reached America. Hold on to your supply of face masks! It’s obvious now, a new round of scare tactics and citizen controls will be available through the 2022 Election cycle. I expect a move to full online voting soon.
I reloaded Steve's chart bc some of you could not see it.
Bern, Wish we could track these stats based on unvaccinated. I bet the level of deaths from the vaccinated would be a far lower graph while the level from the unvaccinated would be exponentially higher. Although the unvaccinated would deny it when they are the ones that become sick they beg for care. It is a shame that they are delusional enough to give their lives for their head trash.
without being able to disaggregate vaccinated from unvaccinated, these stats don't say all that much about the strains of virus. They say more about what proportion of people were vaccinated.
https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/rep-wild-lanta-discuss-infrastructure-law/article_f4d4fd82-7e2b-11ec-b6b2-1bcb4645c504.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share
No mask, Susan Wild??? Let's end the nonsense.
As long as we have "KITS" that you can test yourself at home and those positive tests are not reported, these numbers ain't worth the paper they are printed on. I'm willing to bet thousands of cases are not reported every week. these numbers are false indicators on just how many people have the virus all because of the home testing kits. The home testing kits are great, but they really mess up the statistics as being reported.
A new theory is out about the covid. Many people think It is spread by the nose or the mouth when in fact it is spread by assholes. Yep, the assholes that refuse to get vaccinated.
What data do you allow and what data don't you allow, Bernie?
It seems you don't allow data from the CDC Weekly Provisional updates, though I don't know why you wouldn't. It brings a very enlightening counterpoint to a simple count of "cases."
I was at SAMS Club this morning and did a quick survey in the check out lines. There were approximately 167 men women and children in the check out area. Of those, only 11 were wearing masks. No wonder people are transmitting the recent variants more.
Second event of the day. Went to Salad works for lunch then. I got a to go salad but because the place was empty I decided to sit down and eat. I was the only one in the restaurant eating. About 5 minutes later a couple came in coughing and hacking and got salads. The entire place was open but they sat in the booth right next to mine. They proceeded to hack and cough. I got up and went to move to another table. The guy asked me if I had a problem with them. I did not say anything but he continued by saying that I was a loser piece of shit and made the snide comment that I probably would be really pissed if I knew they were not vaccinated. His partner then made a comment that I was most likely a socialist. And then he turned toward my table and in a pissy mode said that it was disappointing that they served losers in the place. I held my composure but as I passed he again asked if I had a problem with him as he coughed and hacked directly at me. I couldn't take it anymore and turned to him and said these words. YES as as a matter of fact I do. I consider you a threat to my health and therefore potentially a thread to my life because of your actions Aren't you smarted enough to let people be who they are. He went to stand up. I said that definitely seems threatening, took out my phone and suggest he sit back down before I have to dial 911 and then defend my life with all means possible and put my other hand behind my back. I think he assumed I was carrying and sat back down. On the way out the door they were both throwing verbal jabs. I couldn't help but stick my head back in the door and suggest that I hoped they truely enjoyed their hopefully very very short life and that they would die a horrible lonely death after being on a ventilator for a monthly or two with no one being allowed to see them.
This is what any scientist would have predicted, based on common knowledge of virus behavior. As the virus mutates, more people get it but it is less lethal. Of course, those who don't believe in science and instead believe in conspiracy theories have a totally different explanation.
10:18
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/08/facebook-posts/viruses-and-other-pathogens-can-evolve-become-more/
Although I would agree that whether politifact is pro science or a purveyor of conspiracies is a matter of opinion.
"A new theory is out about the covid. Many people think It is spread by the nose or the mouth when in fact it is spread by assholes. Yep, the assholes that refuse to get vaccinated."
Uh, the vaccinated are just as likely to spread the virus, knucklehead. Vaccines are good, but not for the reasons touted by bumpersticker quoting morons like you. Get vaccinated to keep your own ass alive. Your vaccine ain't helping one other person on the planet. Your stupid statements are why we can't meet in the middle.
@10:18 - careful with your phrasing. Mutations absolutely do occur on a regular basis and higher public exposure levels do lead to an increased ability to fight off the viruses and any mutations (aka herd immunity) which strangles the virus due to a lack of viable hosts/breeding environments, but the mutations themselves do not trend towards a reduced lethal threat.
The magic bullet would be a mutation that is both lethal and robust enough to survive. Right now we have far too many people out there who are willingly choosing to be hosts because they're afraid of needles, worried about government tracking implants and other paranoid delusions.
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