Thursday, January 13, 2022

Omicron Nearly 4X Last Winter's Peak in LV

Steve Thode, who has been faithfully keeping track of the COVID-19 data, notes that the Omicron peak here in the Lehigh Valley is 3.75 times higher than what we witnessed last winter. His report: 

Today is the one-year anniversary of the peak 7-Day Case Rate for COVID during last winter's "surge."

On January 11, 2021, Lehigh and Northampton counties reported a combined total of 4,349 new COVID cases for the previous seven days. For the next two months, seven-day new cases slowly declined, reaching a low of 1,080 on March 10. After rising from March 11 to April 10, new cases dropped dramatically to a seven-day rate of a mere 28 cases on July 1.

Today, on the one-year anniversary of the 2021 winter peak, Lehigh and Northampton counties smashed numerous new case records. Lehigh County has recorded 9,329 new cases the past seven days while Northampton County has recorded 7,009 new cases the past seven days. The combined total of 16,338 new cases the past seven days is 3.75 times as large as the seven-day peak last winter.

Here's a chart:

LehighNorCo 1 11 22.jpg

How big has the surge been this winter? Since December 1, 2021, (41 days ago) Lehigh and Northampton counties have reported a combined total of 43,604 new cases. Last winter, it took from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 (120 days) for Lehigh and NorCo to record that many new cases.

LehighNorCo Dec 1 11 22.jpg

Comparing last winter's surge to today's surge is a bit like comparing an afternoon hike up South Mountain to an expedition to scale Mt. Everest. And, it's not clear we have reached the peak yet.


Anonymous said...

I am hearing from some very conservative Republicans that their families have experienced multiple people getting significantly ill from COVID-19. When asked if those ill were vaxed, the answer is always "I don't know."

Anonymous said...

I wonder if the majority of residents have now had some form of covid.

Anonymous said...

Anecdotally, I've read/seen indicators that the #'s are falling and that the curve is very close to matching what we've seen globally with a steep up slope and a similar down slopes.

Luckily for all of us, Omicron is highly contagious, but fortunately not as deadly as some previous variants. Unfortunately for health care workers, the sheer volume of Omicron still put a similar level of demand on hospital beds and equipment.

More exposure does lead to higher chances if herd immunity, but again, we're still not close to that and additional waves and variants are probably a good bet. If you haven't done so already, get vaccinated. It reduces your chances of getting it, which reduces the chances of you spreading it to others. When it spreads, it mutates. Most mutations do nothing and crash out, but every once in awhile a mutation will survive and spread.

We dodged a bullet with the Omicron mutant. The next one could spread like Omicron and be as deadly or deadlier than Delta...

Anonymous said...

We have the unvaxxed to thank for not being closer to normal.

As they say in the South, "isn't that precious?"

Anonymous said...

Thanks to Dr. Thode, who's been working hard to keep us up to date on the local numbers and try to make some sense out of the non-specific information that the state government is giving us.

However, I can't help but notice that I haven't seen many (if any) posts about what's going on at the national level. I'm thinking of things like:

The number of deaths since January 2021
The lack of testing, and the failure of the federal government to have a sufficient number of test kits available for the late fall/early winter covid season.
The failure to consider natural immunity for those previously infected.
The lack of contact tracing.
The lack of focus on therapeutics.

I seem to remember a relentless haranguing of the previous POTUS on those issues and more, and now there seems to be a near silence of criticism towards the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

And that silence comes despite there being record cases, record deaths and the utter failure of the present administration to put together a competent policy and "shut down the virus", despite having a vaccine from Day 1.

Kind of strange, huh?

Bernie O'Hare said...

I refuse to publish comments containing blatant disinformation about the vaccine or the pandemic. These include comments suggesting that officials do not know whether the majority of Omicron infectees are vaccinated, but refuse to disclose it. This is simply untrue. While a vaccination is not as efficacious against the Omicron or Delta variants, it does reduce the likelihood of severe illness or death. The unvaccinated, in contrast, are feeling the brunt of this surge.

Anonymous said...

Somehow the phrase "we will follow the science" from government folks is not so warm and fuzzy sounding as the media would portray. Yes, I have had the vaccines and booster but sure wish we had more therapeutics in our arsenal.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bernie @9:38 except in Florida where it had been shown that they have manipulated the real numbers over and over again.