Folks started dropping hints here yesterday afternoon. There was this: "You can stick a fork in Callahan....you will read tomorrow morning that he is down by 17 points in the latest polling." And this: "Callahan being served up to the Democratic Candidate Death Panel Review and they are pulling the money out....down 17 points with 18 days to go....adios."
Looks like those predictions were accurate. The Morning Call is reporting that LV Congressman Charlie Dent now has a whopping 17-point lead, based on a survey of 496 likely voters between October 5 and 13.
What's even more amazing is that the more people get to know Johnny "Casino" Callahan, the less they like. His negatives are now at 38 per cent. That's what happens when you circulate flyers depicting a soldier with blood streaming down his face.
The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight currently rates Dent's chances of winning at 90.2%.
If this were a kids' football game, it would be time to invoke the mercy rule.
43 comments:
When Winston Churchill said that democracy is the worst form of government EXCEPT for all of the rest ..... he must have been thinking about the voters of the Lehigh Valley sending Charlie Dent to Congress. It is difficult to understand how anyone who knows Charlie can vote for him.
I know Congressman Dent and i am voting for him.
"That's what happens when you circulate flyers depicting a soldier with blood streaming down his face"
no,
it's what happens when you bring in a bunch of washington hacks to run what should have been a local campaign.
it would have been a tough go for callahan in this cycle regardless, but this race was winnable.
7:45,
You're right on both points. The DC hacks ran a terrible campaign, again, and Callahan won't be the only Congressional candidate victimized by this throughout the country.
Secondly, any race where a liberal R (abortion, deficit spending, bailouts) is running with very similar positions to the D in a D-leaning district, the D should win.
There are few differences between Dent and Callahan. But local Ds have been horrified by the national party and find Dent, despite his registration, a much more loyal, local D.
OMG, Jon, what do we do! what do we do!
Heard if Dent is going to be elected this will be his last term.
Then he is going to be a lobbyist?
If that is so, wow that is a classic sell out.
Have absolutely no respect left for any politician. Dent, Mann, Brown (spouse of a lobbyist) or anyone on the ticket.
It seems to always come down to pay to play. Could be one day Anarchy will rule when this version of Democracry finnsly fails.
Speaking of Churchill, Johnny Casino evoked his leadership skills in a vague attempt to smack down Dent's leadership at the Muhlenberg debate. Does Calahan have scoliosis? Why was he so slouched over during his responses? Ironically, to the right.
The poll doesn't surprise me at all, but I think the margin is inflated by 5% points at the least.
This poll was likely designed to discourage Democrats from voting and keep turnout down. They are being told they can't win, so why bother?
I'm still waiting for a report on the true financing of this poll, and an admission by Borick and his gang at Muhlenberg of their personal political leanings.
They are entitled to their own opinions, but readers should be aware of Borick's inclinations and any incentives he might receive to push a poll one way or another.
He doesn't exactly have a great record for accuracy, but I have no doubt that the day after the election he will have a poll showing how right he was, or how the race "narrowed" or "changed" drastically in the last few days. (or Didn't)
DEnt is looking at around 53.5% now, and if Towne gets around 6.5%, that leaves 40% for Callahan.
That's not pretty, but I think it is about right.
" Does Calahan have scoliosis? Why was he so slouched over during his responses? Ironically, to the right."
Hey, Callahan is a Head Start kid. In addition to the speech mpediment (which expains his sonfusion over his jobs plan), he couldn't stand and had to be carried everywhere like FDR. They just fixed that a few weeks ago.
"Heard if Dent is going to be elected this will be his last term."
I have not asked him about this, but I've heard the same thing. Except I hear he intends to run for the U.S. Senate, and he should. He would be a great Senator.
"If that is so, wow that is a classic sell out"
You know what's a real sellout? Running for Bethlehem Mayor and then ditchig the peple who elected AND PAY you, to run for Congress.
Thanks for writing on Saturday Bernie. This is a treat for regulars. Enjoying your glimpse into Dent's lead. We heard the debate at Muhlenberg. Thought Callahan went so ugly, he lost a lot of respect.
I was willing to give JC benefit of the doubt over his noticeable slouching during the debate. Posture is important to convey an image of command, and respect for the audience. He looked like Groucho up there without the mustache and cigar.
Bernie
Who had a flyer with blood running down a face?
Does Calahan have scoliosis? Why was he so slouched over during his responses? Ironically, to the right.
We noticed Callahan leaning way over to reach the podium at Muhlenberg too. Perhaps he hurt his back.
Sure hope it's not true that Dent's going to be a lobbyist. That will be a huge disappointment and loss of character.
The state needs legislation to forbid any elected official from running for another job while still in office. More than once on this very blog, city residents have written how their current mayor is hardly a presence at city hall. That's not fair to the taxpayers who voted for him and believed he would at least give a fair day's work for an excellent day's wage. Callahan should have resigned.
Loss of character? He's a handsome, smiling, progressive Rockefeller Republican who virulently defends banks and business at the expense of anyone who gets in his and their way. He became very un-conservative when it came to bank bailouts. Was anyone surprised?
He supports unrestricted partial birth abortion and grisly testing on the innocents' remains to make sure rich guys like him don't suffer from baldness, limp dick, and diseases the rest of us can't afford to fight.
He's never seen a war he doesn't jump to fund. He championed the bombing of innocent civilians in a wider war in Pakistan. It's all war all the time. If they wear a rag, slaughter the bastards! Death, death, death.
But that million dollar smile makes it so palatable.
Granted, Callahan's another pathetic punchline. But Charlie's a bad guy. The voters of the 15th have lost until demons like Dent are gotten rid of.
Bernie
Took a moment to read yesterday's comments. Your recollection of a Burkette event is horrible and does not showcase her in any kind of compassionate light. We are sorry to hear she acted like this.
But wait! I just got an e-mail from John Callahan saying he was only down by 2%. He wasn't lying to me -- was he?
Anon 10:37, Kiss ass much?
Anon 11:27 am
Boy, I'd hate to see what YOU must see when you close your eyes at night.
What, Charlie didn't send you a Christmas card last year or something?
What a hate-filled rant. Makes me wonder which frustrated democratic political operative you really are....
"Thanks for writing on Saturday Bernie. This is a treat for regulars."
It's very nice of you to say that. I was at my grandson's football game or I would have thanked you sooner. Sorry about the troll.
"Who had a flyer with blood running down a face?"
Callahan did it and even defended it. I've lost all respect for him, not just as a candidate, but as a human being.
"You know what's a real sellout? Running for Bethlehem Mayor and then ditchig the peple who elected AND PAY you, to run for Congress"
Didn't Dent run for Congress, while being a state senator? Did he sellout then? He was running for congress on his constituent dime?
"Callahan did it and even defended it. I've lost all respect for him, not just as a candidate, but as a human being."
Yet you remain friends with Angle, and he has done much worse.
"Didn't Dent run for Congress, while being a state senator? Did he sellout then? He was running for congress on his constituent dime?"
The difference, and it's a big one to me, is that Callahan ran for the Mayor's office and Congress simultaneously. If he's running for one of those offices, he should not be in the other.
And I do generally agree with resign to run laws, especially when you're running for two incompatible offices simultaneously. Mann has done that. Callahan has done that. Dent has not.
" you remain friends with Angle, and he has done much worse."
Yes, I do remain friends with Angle. While he can be divisive and rubs many people the wrong way, he has never run a campaign like that. But he has been the victim of several dirty campaigns by people attempting to portray him as a Nazi, etc.
He will be the first to admit that he has flaws, but I've met very few people in public office who care as much about what they are doing for the people. Too many others are more interested in doing the bidding of special interests like the Lehigh Valley Partnership or unions. And they get angry at Ron bc he usets their apple carts. So he is vilified.
But most people are starting to realize that Ron is a smart guy who can be uncouth, but is one of the few publjc servants who understands he's there to serve the people. That's why Stoffa, his ideological opposite, tries to work with him.
I got polled on this. The first question concerned Obama's approval which them led into the Dent/Callahan question.
I just looked at it and you are right. In case you are interested, the specific results are here: http://www.mcall.com/media/acrobat/2010-10/56801381.pdf
Looks like Obama's favorable ratings are down from 55% in April to 42% now.
It's also interesting to see that Callahan has more support in Northampton (38%) than Lehigh (30%) County. I suspect that's bc (1) 2 of the 3 LV cities are in NC, and (2) Dent's base has been LC.
Callahan was re-elected mayor is 2009. The election for Congress is in 2010...not at the same time. You can try to spin that but Dent did the same thing Callahan did.
"I got polled on this. The first question concerned Obama's approval which them led into the Dent/Callahan question."
That is why the Mcall poll has a bias. It is not a true poll on the race...it is not quite a push poll but is not without bias. There is no reason to start the poll with questions about Obama.
Chris Casey said...
"...This poll was likely designed to discourage Democrats from voting and keep turnout down. They are being told they can't win, so why bother?"
Funny, my first thought was that this poll would lead more disaffected conservative/libertarian types to vote for Towne if they felt Callahan didn't have a chance!
Regarding Angle, if the swastika fits...
Really O'Hare? Angle is a self-serving sociopath who would and has sell a family member if he could get a headline. Sadly his wife will pay for his greed on the forged Will. The only public he cares about is the public that consists of Ron Angle. A thief and a liar.
Sigmund Freud
You are an anonymous coward, doing what you do, and fooling no one.
"Callahan was re-elected mayor is 2009. The election for Congress is in 2010...not at the same time."
Umm, he announced his candidacy in '09, not 2010. In other words, he was running for Confress and Mayor at the same time. His statement of organization was filed with the FEC on 7/31/09. He also began raising money and had a quarterly report in October '09 and Dec '09.
As Congressman Dent said to Callahan during one of ther own debtates, you're entitled to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.
Link: http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00464750
I know Congressmen Dent's recent voting record and I am voting for Callahan. He is not the moderate he once claimed to be.
What is remarkable is that Dent is still stuck at 49 percent. Maybe Dents special interest adds had some effect but it does not appear Dent has gained any votes .
1024 Oh Pleazzze. Dent ditched his State Senate seat a two years early it run for Congress. Looks like we will be paying for two retirements for Congressmen Dent. He gets Health Benefits for life unlike most working Americans.
Anon 637. So you mean it was a push poll? Maybe that explains why Dent did not gain any votes.
Wonder what the results would be if Likely voters were asked if they support giving unlimited Bonuses to Excutives who mismanaged firm in part lead to this recession and are using taxpayer funded TARP money?
Would they reward Dent for is vote against limiting taxpayer funded bonuses?
Teaparty members right, wrong, or indifferent are against any kind of raises.
How can the Lehigh GOP party Chair standup at a County meeting and call for votes against raises for middle class families, meanwhile Dent supports "sky is the limit" bonuses for Wall Steet Execs?
The Callahan campaign crew are an embarassment. What a bunch of idiots. Everything they have done has been a disaster. Then again, it's hard to do much when your candidate is clearly lacking in intelligence, facts, actions, etc. etc. etc.
But hey, at least Ol' John John has his talking points from Democrats in Washington!!
"So you mean it was a push poll? Maybe that explains why Dent did not gain any votes."
I don't think asking a general queston about Obama qualifies this as a push poll, but go ahead and bray away. Thankflully, the election will be over soon enough and you can plan on making the same mistakes again.
If Callahan loses the Congress seat he plans on being the next County Executive. He will ban you from your position as top propagandist.
If Callahan loses the Congress seat he plans on being the next County Executive. He will ban you from your position as top propagandist.
First, he has to win an election. And if he thinks he can play the games with County finances like he did in Bethlehem, he is sadly mistaken.
Read it an weep:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/pa/pennsylvania_15th_district_dent_vs_callahan-1264.html
Sunday Morning,
We hope Charlie Dent doesn't run for the Senate. He needs to prove he can work in private industry before another run.
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