Friday, November 09, 2012

Simmons Clinging to Razor Thin, 25-Vote Lead, in Lehigh County

Justin Simmons
State Rep. Justin Simmons represents the 131st legislative, a hodge podge of  blue and red precincts. It includes much of both Allentown's south side and Salisbury Township, areas dominated by blue collar Democrats. But it also includes J.B. Reilly country in the Saucons, dominated by blue bloods as opposed to blue collars. So no matter who sits on the 131st throne, it's best not to get too comfortable.

Two years ago, Simmons came out of nowhere to knock off Karen Beyer in a hotly contested Republican primary. I thought Simmons was morally wounded after that dogfight, but he went on to win the general election against Michael Horton, a weak candidate whose residence there was questionable.

Kevin Deely
In office, Simmons has led by example. He refuses to take a state car, per diems or participate in a pension. He's the state rep who quietly got the ball rolling on the NIZ settlement, in which Allentown and surrounding municipalities were at war over a tax grab to fund a hockey arena and office buildings in the downtown. He even managed to get some legislation passed.

Easton High School match teacher Kevin Deely, in contrast to Simmons, is pretty much a one-issue candidate. At a Business Matters debate a few weeks before the election, it was painfully apparent that, aside from education issues, Deely has no real knowledge or understanding of state issues. You'd think that Simmons would cruise to re-election on autopilot, but something happened.

Barack Obama.

Two years ago, there was no Presidential election driving large numbers of Democrats to the polls. But this time, the lever pullers came out in force. And all of a sudden, there's a horse race.

After being down most of the night, Simmons emerged in the early morning hours with a 562-vote lead. But that's unofficial.

The official vote count began in Lehigh County yesterday. Without the absentee ballots, Simmons would have lost.

Machine Numbers:

Justin Simmons          Rep   12273
Kevin T. Deely Jr.     Dem   12512

Absentee Numbers:

Justin Simmons          Rep   678
Kevin T. Deely Jr.     Dem   414

Total Machine and Absentee:

Justin Simmons          Rep   12951
Kevin T. Deely Jr.     Dem   12926

As you can see, he is up by a scant 25 votes in Lehigh County.

In Northampton County, the official count begins today. It will likely continue for several days because there are over 500 provisional ballots county-wide. Simmons is up by 430 votes in Northampton County, so I think it's highly unlikely that Deely will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

But you never know. Both candidates will be sending lawyers, guns and money to the festivities.

Elections officials in both counties will be unable to conclude the official count until November 13. That's when absentee ballots are due from the military and emergency first responders.

Updated 10:25 AM: I originally called this a "razor sharp" lead. A reader corrected my error, and I have changed my headline to "razor thin." .

Updated 12:15 PM: Simmons Lead In Lehigh County Down to One Vote! - Don't think one vote makes a difference? Think again. After going through the provisional ballots, Simmons' lead in Lehigh County has shrunk to just one vote. His firewall is Northampton County, where he is still up by 430 votes. Provisional ballots are being examined there now, but officials are not expected to hit his district until Wednesday.

31 comments:

Anonymous said...



The Voters don't care for a legislaror who uses one-liners and stories.

They want someone who delivers!

This should show Simmons that destroying the Middle class and giving out corporate welfare is wrong.

Mark Baker said...

but to vote for a union puke who doesn't know the issues. your ass is showing

Anonymous said...




They are both WEAK!!!!!

IS THIS THE BEST WE HAVE TO OFFER!!!!

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Deely ever smoked dope with his students? I wonder if he'll get stoned today? Where does he buy his weed? Does he prefer joints, bowls, bongs, vaporizer? How often did he wake-n-bake before going into school to instruct children? I think a presser is called for.

Anonymous said...




Simmons smoked, but didn't inhale!!!

Anonymous said...

Simmons alienated his Allentown voters several times w/ comments he made during the debate and in the community. A union hack is a poor alternative but Simmons is too arrogant for many in his district.

Anonymous said...

Anon 657am hit it, and this is true at the local, state and federal levels.

Is this the best we got? Really?

God help us all.

The Banker

Anonymous said...

The left should bash Simmons for his religious views. Bashing God works.

Anonymous said...

It's "razor thin", not "razor sharp."

Anonymous said...

What is a legislaror?

Too many bong hits this morning?

Bernie O'Hare said...

10:00, You are correct. Mixing my metaphors.

Anonymous said...

I voted for Obama & Simmons. He was actually the only Rep I voted for. Seems like a genuine guy who will get things done.

Bernie, I learned about him through your site!

Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...

What is a legislaror?

Too many bong hits this morning?

10:13 AM"


Really?? I am not the author of the original comment...but really?? You couldn't figure out that was a typo??

What are we 5 here?

Anonymous said...

Simmons must now realize that Voters think nothing of him for not taking a Car, per diems or a Pension.

Anonymous said...

@ 1:07pm

please, like 60% of the people that voted for Deely ever heard of either of them, they were voting for Obama. The Obama "pull straight Democrat" machine is the only reason this was even a race. Simmons rocked Deely in every precinct outside of Allentown (where the Obama machine didn't have the same ground game)

Anonymous said...

for the record: The "straight ticket" was voted by 3X the amount of Republicans compared to Dems. The lower end of the ticket was hurt by Obama in Many areas.

Anonymous said...

"What are we five here"

I have no idea HOW MANY bong hits YOU did this morning ...

Was it MY JOB to keep track?

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
I voted for Obama & Simmons...

11:15 AM"

Oh...My...God...

-Clem

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
Simmons must now realize that Voters think nothing of him for not taking a Car, per diems or a Pension.


1:07 PM"

Yeah, they think he's a mental because "why he don't want free stuff? He can't be an American, cuz Americans want free stuff.

-Clem

Anonymous said...




Sorry for the mistake.....

"REPRESENTATIVE"

or should I say SHRINKING LEGISLATOR!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Regarding the state legislature.

I'd be interested in reading about why our state is falling so far behind others in social issues - primarily gay marriage, medical or legal marijuana, and abortion law.

From what I can tell, medical marijuana is legal in just about every other "blue" state. Gay marriage is legal in lots of RED states. Medical marijuana has been proposed in Harrisburg but the leadership won't even allow it to be brought to the floor.

Why are we so behind the times? Is this one reason why young people are leaving? Which of these candidates are going to bring real progressive change to the state?

Anonymous said...

5 as in 5 years old. But apparently your IQ isn't that high, or you'd have understood it the 1st time.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:54 is spot on.

Simmons--way too arrogant and ideological for everyone but his Tea Party friends that voted for him.

Don't know anything about Deely, but I figured he'd be an alternative to youngster that needs to soften his ideology.

Anonymous said...


LET'S DO THE MATH

Corbett.......School Pension
Corbett.......County Pension
Corbett.......Federal Pension
Corbett.......State Pension
Corbett.......Social Security

Simmons.......0

Anonymous said...

Simmons lead is supposedly down to 25 votes district wide with hundreds of votes left to be counted

Bernie O'Hare said...

No. His lead is down to one vote in LC. In NC, where he is up by 430 votes, it is mathematically impossible for the 17 or so provisional ballots or the absentee ballots (about 18) to change the final result. Now, in the canvassing, it is possible some errors can be discovered and corrected. So it could change. But elections officials won't do that race until about Wednesday. They did not even look at it today. I know. I was there.

Colin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Colin said...

anon 5:38 your numbers are WAY off. I know, I was there too.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

To ANON 7:54 and 5:21.
Dont mistake arrogance for superior knowledge .In the debates Rep Simmons schooled Deely on the issues of the District and the State.
Bernie was at the debate and I'm sure would agree.
Suck it up Dems...Deely lost !

Anonymous said...

Simmons Lead is now 16 in Lehigh County and 432 in Norco.