NorCo Continues to Lose Democratic Edge

Northampton County's final voter registration statistics in advance of the 2020 Presidential election were as follows:

Total: 227,315, compared to 211,593 in 2016.

Democrats: 102,436, compared to 98,929 in 2016.  Democrats accounted for 45% of the total registration, compared to 47% in 2016. 

Republicans: 81,345, compared to 73,638 in 2016. Republican registration increased from 34.8% to 35.8% of the total registration.  

Other: 43,534, compared to 39,026 in 2016. Independents shrunk from 19.15% to 18.4% of the total number of registered voters. 

Though the county did vote for Biden, it is no longer a blue county.  It is becoming more and more conservative,, as the voter registration totals before the May 17 primary make clear. On election day, this is the voter registration data.

Total registration: 220,685. 

Democrats: 97,710. This is 44.2% of the total number of registered voters, compared to 47% in 2016. Democrats have been losing voters for the past six years. 

Republicans: 80,198. This is 36.35% of the total number  of registered voters, compared to 34.8% in 2016. Republicans are clearly becoming more dominant.

Other: 42,777. This is 19.3% of those who are registered, and is approximately where it was in 2016.

Conclusion? Northampton County voters are increasingly rejecting the Democratic message, at least on a national level. 

Erratum at 9:15 pm: My thanks to a reader who observes that the independent percentage has increased from 18.4 to 19.15%.  

 

The Math Favors McClure

Popular belief is that the advent of MIBs has increased elections turnout. Studies at Stanford and the National Academy of Sciences, however, disagree. They conclude that actual turnout is about the same one could expect with an in-person election. Their conclusion is certainly supported by Northampton County's measly 20.87% turnout in this year's primary. Despite all the work that has gone into MIBs and drop boxes to make voting more convenient, the number of people voting has only marginally increased. While actual turnout is apparently unaffected by MIBs, there certainly has been a change in the way voters exercise their franchise. Democrats prefer to vote by mail, while Republicans prefer voting in person. In the 2020 presidential, 53,481 of 74,125 MIBs went to Joe Biden (72%). If this trend holds, Lamont McClure will be re-elected Executive.   

Northampton County's Election Day turnout in its 2017 municipal election was 23%, or 46,526 voters. This was prior to the advent of no-excuse mail-in ballots (MIBs), which only started in 2020. In the Exec race, Lamont McClure defeated incumbent John Brown with 22,520 votes, or 48% of the total turnout. 

Turnout in 2017's general election was marked by the fissures in this nation caused by a divisive President who chose to tear people apart instead of bring them together. This divide has only deepened. So I expect to see at least a 23% turnout on November. As of October 18, there are 219,258 registered voters in Northampton County. This means an election day turnout of 50,429 voters. There will be voters who cast no ballot in the Exec race. Many Republicans and Independents recognize challenger Steve Lynch as a fringe candidate, but are unwilling to vote for McClure. So just like in 2017, McClure will win if he can garner just 48% of the 50,429 expected voters, or 24,205 votes.

This is where MIBs come into play. In Northampton County, 27,125 have been mailed. As of this morning, 8,663 (32%) have been returned. In Northampton County's 2020 Presidential, 88,7% of requested MIBs were returned. If history repeats itself, that means that 23,897 ballots will be returned. If 72% of these MIBs go for Lamont McClure, that means he will have 16,727 votes from MIBs alone. 

He still would need 8,000 votes, but should get those easily from in-person votes. In the 2020 Presidential, Biden captured 30,753 in-person votes on election day, which translates to 17.87% of the 172,065 people who voted.  If McClure captures 17.87% from in-person votes, that gives him 9,011 votes. 

The math favors McClure. I believe my estimates are conservative. I believe his margin of victory will be higher because many Republicans will just refuse to vote in the Exec race. 

On-Demand Mail Ballots Increase Sharply in NorCo, Dems Losing Voters

People can vote three ways in Pa. You can request a mail-in ballot, vote at your precinct on election day or physically appear at the elections office, request your ballot and vote then and there. I call this early voting, but technically, your vote is not counted until 7 am on election day. Approximately 3,700 people have voted ballot on demand in NorCo as of Thursday, according to Executive Lamont McClure. I've been telling you about it the past two days. The Exec told County Council that the number of people voting at the courthouse is a significant increase over the "few dozen" who voted that way in the Presidential race four years ago. He said the county has managed to keep up with the demand with help from volunteers from other departments, including cabinet heads. 

McClure also advised Council that there have been 57,996 requests for mail-in ballots (MIBs). Thus far, the elections office has sent out 57,664 ballots. Essentially, elections officials are getting them processed and sent almost immediately after they are received. So far, 38,438 MIBs have been returned. That's well below the number of ballots received four years ago. In the 2020 Presidential, the county received and counted 73,914 MIBs, most of which came from Democrats. Unless there's a sharp increase in requests over the next few days, that is a bad sign for Democrats, who tend to favor MIBs. The cut-off date for MIB requests is October 29. 

McClure also said there are 234,379 registered voters in NorCo, of which 87,527 are Republicans (37%) and 99,182 are Democrats (42%). There were 227,371 registered voters four years ago, of which 45% were Democrats and 35.8% were Republicans. 

Democrats are continuing a trend of losing registered voters while Republicans are gaining them.  

NorCo Elections Office Answers Questions For May 18 Primary

While the Presidential election is what attracts the most voters, municipal primaries are what attract the most candidates. In Northampton County, there are 482. Whomever is elected will have more impact on your day-to-life than Donald Trump or Joe Biden. It is the local officials who decide whether your street gets plowed or that pothole gets filled. These are the "servants" who will nickle and dime you with annual tax hike (if you live in Bethlehem) or stormwater fees enacted with only minimal notice.

The elections office and NorCo spokesperson Becky Bartlett have come up with answers to frequently asked questions:

What will be on the ballot?

County-wide offices, candidates for municipal offices, state judges, magisterial judgeships, a County-wide Home Rule Charter amendment and four stateside ballot measures: Equal Rights Regardless of Race or Ethnicity Amendment, Emergency Declarations Amendment, Legislative Resolution to Extend or Terminate Emergency Declaration Amendment and Making Municipal Fire and Emergency Medical Services Companies Eligible for Loans.

 

Who can vote in the Primary Election?

Registered Democrats and Republicans can vote for candidates running on their party’s ticket. All registered voters can vote on the County-wide Home Rule Charter amendment, stateside ballot measures or referendum questions.

Can I vote by mail?

Yes. Act 77, which was passed in 2019, allows for no excuse mail-in voting. Applications for a mail-in or civilian absentee ballot must be received by May 11^th and are available in the Election’s Office or online at VotesPA.com or NorthamptonVotes.com

How do I know my application has been accepted or if my ballot has been received?

Citizens who sign up on VotesPA.com will receive emails about their application/ballot status. Voters who applied on paper can track the status of their ballot at VotesPA.com once the state makes that tool available.

Why did I get an email saying my application for a mail-in ballot has been declined?

It’s likely that a duplicate application was filed or the application lacked a signature or a verifiable ID. Contact the Elections Office for assistance at 610-829-6260 or elections@northamptoncounty.org 

When will ballots go out in the mail?

Ballots will start being mailed out in April. Voters can check the status of their ballot on-line at VotesPA.com

I’m worried about getting my mail-in ballot back to the Elections Office on time.

To be counted, ballots must be returned to the Election’s Office by 8:00PM on May 18^th. The return envelope must be signed and dated and the ballot must enclosed in a sealed privacy envelope. We recommend voters return their ballot as soon as possible or at least get it in the mail by May 5^th.

What kind of stamp should I use to mail my ballot back?

Return envelopes require a first-class stamp or postage if they are mailed back to the Elections Office.

Do I have to return my ballot by mail?

No. Ballots can be returned directly to the Election’s Office at the Government Center at 669 Washington Street, Easton, PA 18042 or at one of the secure ballot drop boxes stationed around the County. (Boxes will be installed when ballots become available.)

Can someone else deliver my ballot to the Elections Office?

No. PA State Law states that voters may only drop off their own ballot. If you come into the office, you may be asked for your ID. If you drop off someone else’s ballot because they are physically unable to do so, you will be asked for a signed “Certification of Designated Agent” form. A copy of the form can be downloaded at VotesPA.com

Can I vote using Ballot on Demand?

Yes, Ballot on Demand will be available in the Election Office at the Government Center when ballots become available until 4:30PM on May 11^th. You need to bring an ID with you to the office.

I requested a mail-in ballot but now I want to vote in-person at the polls.

Voters who prefer to use the machines can bring their mail-in ballot and the return envelope to the polls. The Judge of Election will spoil the ballot and ask the voter to complete a “Declaration to Surrender Ballot” form before allowing them vote on the ExpressVote XL machine.

Will the polls be open on May 18^th?

Yes. As of right now, the Election’s Office plans on staffing all 156 precincts with 315 voting machines.

Have the ExpressVote XL machines been tested?

 Yes. The machines will undergo testing before the Primary on May 18^th. The machines performed very well for both elections in 2020.

Have any polling locations changed?

Easton 3^rd Ward 3^rd District has been moved to the Kirby Sports Center 700 W Pierce Street, Easton

 

Hanover Township District #1 has been moved to Brith Sholom at 1190 W. Macada Road.

Do I have to wear a mask at the polls? What about the poll workers?

All poll workers are required to wear masks. We strongly request that voters wear masks out of respect to the people who volunteer in our elections.

Who should voters call if they have problems or questions either before or on Election Day?

The Northampton County Elections Office: 610-829-6260 or elections@northamptoncounty.org 

Our democracy increases in strength the more we all participate. If you, or someone you know, has an interest in taking a more active role, please consider becoming a poll worker. Poll workers are paid for their training time and work on Election Day. https://www.northamptoncounty.org/CTYADMN/ELECTNS/Pages/PollWorkers.aspx

Allentown To Consider Initiative to Require Social Workers, Not Cops, To Respond to Some 911 Calls

CRT Bill by BernieOHare on Scribd

Allentown City Council will soon, perhaps as early as this month, consider a bill that would basically require county 911 dispatchers to play God and decide whether to send police or social workers in response to 911 calls. In fact, in most instances, this ordinance would actually prevent county 911 operators from sending police. The Morning Call has some detail, but I thought you'd like to read the proposed ordinance yourself.   This request purportedly comes from 2,000 registered voters. If that is so, and Council votes this down, the voters will be able to weigh in themselves in the November election. 

City Clerk Mike Hanlon has 20 days to determine if the petition is sufficient, i.e. are there really 2,000 registered voters from Allentown who want social workers to respond to domestic disturbance calls? 

The petitioners' committee includes Patrick Palmer, Susan Jordhauno (sp?), Mary Tomlinson, Lissette Pauulino and Sarina Torres.

Torres is running for City Council. Palmer tried, but failed, to meet the ballot deadline. City Council member Ce Ce Gerlach, who participated in "Fuck the Police" rallies in 2020, is of course a big advocate.

This issue came up at yesterday's Bethlehem City Council member debate. Most politely said they need more information. In Bethlehemese, that means No.

I'll have more tomorrow. 

Express Vote XL Vendor to Explain What Went Wrong in Nov Election

Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, along with representatives for the Express Vote XL voting system, have scheduled a news conference at 1 pm today to discuss arising significant issues during the rollout of this $2.9 million hybrid touch screen and paper ballot system. Some voters complained they had difficulties making choices in the retention race. More importantly, at the end of the night, when the polls closed, most of the printouts showed that Democratic judicial candidate Abe Kassis had zero votes. A scan of the paper ballots, conducted election night and into the early morning hours, showed that Kassis had actually won.

The Express Vote XL voting system is a product of Electronic Systems & Software (ES&S), a wholly owned subsidiary of The McCarthy Group. It is the largest manufacturer of voting systems in the United States, including paper ballot systems like the one used in Lehigh County. ES&S Senior VP Adam Carbullido will be at the news conference, and both he and McClure will report their findings to County Council later that day.

How Did Northampton County Get The Express Vote XL?

You can blame failed Green Party Presidential candidate Jill Stein, along with Governor Tom Wolf. In 2016, she filed a bizarre lawsuit demanding a recount and attacking the various systems used to count votes throughout the state. Judge Paul S. Diamond gutted most of the suit, noting that Stein had presented "no authority recognizing a right to have one’s vote verified through any procedure," let alone paper ballots. He also said Stein's fear of vote tampering in “borders on the irrational.”

Though her lawsuit was on life support, Governor Tom Wolf nevertheless settled. He commanded all 67 counties, in late 2018 unfunded mandate, to acquire voting systems that include voter-verifiable paper ballots. What's more, they had to be in place in time for the 2020 presidential election. No consideration was given to the logistics of such a demand or the financial burden it imposed on counties.

The Express Vote XL was the choice of the vast majority of about 30 election judges who viewed four different systems in Lehigh County. It was the choice of Northampton County's Election Commission, who recommended it to Northampton County Council by a 3-2 vote on March 6, following a contentious meeting pitting election judges against paper ballot purists.

Arguing in favor of The Express Vote XL was GOP Chair Lee Snover. "We're not a third world country," she assserted. "We have technology for a reason. I don't want anyone determining the intent of my vote except for me and the machine."

Before accepting this recommendation, Northampton County Council waited to see how the system performed in Delaware's primary. Council finally approved the purchase on May 16 after the system received a glowing recommendation from Delaware election officials.

Numerous election judges and poll workers spoke in support of the new system. They argued it would be familiar to voters and present none of the privacy concerns or multiple lines that would accompany paper ballots.

In addition to election judges, Elections Commissioner Maude Hornick said she supported ExpressVote XL because she wants no election official to decide how she intended to vote.

Trudy Fatzinger, Secretary of Pennsylvania Council for the Blind, reported that ExpressVote XL is handicapped-friendly. This was a selling point to Executive Lamont McClure, who observed that 25% of Pennsylvania's registered voters have some form of disability.

The sole dissenter was lameduck Robert Werner, who argued illogically that because an old touchscreen voting machine could be reversed engineered, it necessarily follows that the Express Vote XL would be vulnerable, too. This is what is known in logic class as a fallacy.

Why Did It Take So Long To Find Out What Went Wrong?

Immediately after the election, a court order impounded the voting system in anticipation of a possible challenge. So ES&S was unable to look at the system until November 26, the last day on which a challenge could be filed. The company was legally unable to look at the machines until late November.

Questions to Be Answered at News Conference

1) What did voters have issues using the touchscreen, and how is this being resolved?

2) Why did the printed returns contain incorrect vote totals, and how is this being resolved?

3) Why were these glaring errors missed in the "logic and accuracy" testing done on each machine prior to an election, and what steps are being taken to ensure that these kinds of mistakes are caught before an election?

4) What is the County doing to ensure the Presidential election runs as smoothly as is possible?

Allentown City Council Hears From Supporters of $4 Million Initiative to Send Social Workers, Not Cops, on Some 9-1-1 Calls

On Tuesday night, Allentown City Council began the process of listening to supporters of a citizen initiative that would require county-employed dispatchers to send social workers, and not police officers, in response to some 9-1-1 calls. A citizen initiative is a form of direct democracy in which citizens, as opposed to City Council members, can sponsor legislation that could go directly to the voters. In Allentown, a city initiative requires the assent of 2,000 registered voters. After that threshold is met, City Council has 60 days in which to adopt, reject or take no action on this ordinance. It has no power to amend. Only the citizen petitioners' committee can authorize revisions. If the matter is rejected or no action is taken, it must be forwarded to the county as a ballot initiative for the voters in November. 

Initiative supporters were led by one of the petition circulators, Imogen Wirth.  She indicated she got her start as a result of George Floyd's murder. She said her group became more concerned by the way Allentown police responded to a 2020 overdose subject (he had ingested 7 bags of cocaine) who was staggering and vomiting in the middle of the street, at night, outside of a local hospital. He was endangering both himself and the public. Police at the hospital on an unrelated matter assisted hospital personnel by placing a spit mask on this addict, but a shorter video from a different angle made it look as though police were kneeling on this man's neck. The City nearly rioted that night, as convicted felon Hasshan Batts led a mob with chants of "F--- the police."  The Mayor was doxed and was told by members of this mob that they knew where he lived. 

Intentionally or unintentionally, Wirth misrepresented what happened that night. 

Wirth went on to claim that the $4 million budget proposed for this program is entirely reasonable. because Bethlehem's former Health Director told her so. "It would not touch the police's budget in any way.  There would be no need to raise taxes. ... This is the future of public safety."

She said her mobile response team would have their own vehicles and operate 24/7. 

City Council did hear from other speakers, but there were more no-shows than actual speakers. That's OK, because Council President Daryl Hendricks told Wirth he'd allow her to continue to present during tonight's meeting. 

Wirth failed to address three very important questions. First, what legal authority does Allentown have to tell county 9-1-1 dispatchers what to do?  Second, has PEMA been consulted concerning how 9-1-1 dispatchers should be retrained? Third, isn't it discriminatory to refuse to allow former police officers who became social workers to serve on these teams?

During the meeting, Wirth used the term "We" a lot and attempted to drape herself in the clothing of an Allentown resident. Comparing Allentown to Bethlehem, she said, "We're a much bigger city [than Bethlehem]." Interestingly, she's no Allentown resident. Here's what one reader, who is an Allentown resident, told me: "As a City resident, I find it very interesting that the spokesperson and representative of the petition committee (Imogen Wirth) lives on a peaceful suburban street in Lower Macungie Township, a municipality that is 95% white and doesn't even have a local police department. Her position as spokesperson/representative of the petition committee can't help but give the impression that Bill 47 is being advanced by outsiders with a political agenda. How can some hypocrite lecture me, an Allentown resident with a real social conscience, about George Floyd while choosing to live on a suburban cul-de-sac in an essentially segregated public school system? I've bought a home in Allentown and put a child through the public school system. They couldn't even prop up some local Allentown resident to speak for the committee?'

Several Allentown residents did speak, but Wirth was their facilitator.

Federal Court Rejects Challenge to Voting Machines Used in NorCo

Lamont McClure backs ExpressVote XL

In 2016, Jill Stein failed as the Green Party's candidate for President. In Pennsylvania, she garnered 49,485 votes, less than one percent. Now she's failed in a federal lawsuit demanding that the ExpressVote XL voting system be scrapped. That just happens to be the one used in Northampton County.

In a scathing opinion, District Court Judge Paul Diamond on April 29 rejected all arguments in her "pointless" "eleventh-hour" motion that "would have disenfranchised some six million Pennsylvania voters." Of the ExpressVote XL, Judge Diamond noted "[t]he machine is reliable and easy to use. It is a hybrid device, combining ballot-marking and tabulating/scanning functionalities within a single system." He rejected the "daft theories" advanced by her so-called expert, noting they undermine public confidence in our voting system. His final conclusion is that Stein based her motion on "absolutely nothing." He quoted from a voting machine expert who said Stein's allegations are "as likely as the fact that androids from outer space are living amongst us and passing as humans.”

Judge had previously gutted most of Stein's suit because she presented "no authority recognizing a right to have one’s vote verified through any procedure," let alone paper ballots. He added her fear of vote tampering in “borders on the irrational.”

Though her lawsuit was on life support, Governor Tom Wolf nevertheless settled. He commanded all 67 counties, in a late 2018 unfunded mandate, to acquire voting systems that include voter-verifiable paper ballots. What's more, they had to be in place in time for the 2020 presidential election. No consideration was given to the logistics of such a demand or the financial burden it imposed on counties.

The ExpresVote XL was the choice of the vast majority of about 30 election judges who viewed four different systems. It was the choice of Northampton County's Election Commission, who recommended it to Northampton County Council by a 3-2 vote on March 6, following a contentious meeting pitting election judges against paper ballot purists.

Arguing in favor of The ExpressVote XL was GOP Chair Lee Snover. "We're not a third world country," she asserted. "We have technology for a reason. I don't want anyone determining the intent of my vote except for me and the machine."

Before accepting this recommendation, Northampton County Council waited to see how the system performed in Delaware's primary. Council finally approved the purchase on May 16 after the system received a glowing recommendation from Delaware election officials.

Numerous election judges and poll workers spoke in support of the new system. They argued it would be familiar to voters and present none of the privacy concerns or multiple lines that would accompany paper ballots.

In addition to election judges, Elections Commissioner Maude Hornick said she supported ExpressVote XL because she wants no election official to decide how she intended to vote.

Trudy Fatzinger, Secretary of Pennsylvania Council for the Blind, reported that ExpressVote XL is handicapped-friendly. This was a selling point to Executive Lamont McClure, who observed that 25% of Pennsylvania's registered voters have some form of disability.

The sole dissenter was Robert Werner, who argued that because an old touchscreen voting machine could be reversed engineered, it necessarily follows that the ExpressVote XL would be vulnerable, too. This is what is known in logic class as a fallacy.

Like Stein, Werner has sued, too. His lawsuit is in Commonwealth Court, where lawyers for the state are seeking delay because of Covid-19. Based on Judge Diamond's ruling, it appears there's no need to worry about getting a new system.

ES&S: Decertification of Express Vote XL Would Result in "Complete Chaos"

The Express Vote XL voting system is the subject of two lawsuits in both federal (E.D. Pa. 2016-6287) and state (Commw. Ct. 674 MD 2019) courts. Both challenges, filed just days ago, seek a ban on the continued use of The ExpressVote XL voting system. Three counties - Philadelphia, Northampton and Cumberland - intend to use this hybrid voting machine in the 202 Presidential Primary. A Brief filed in federal court yesterday by machine manufacturer ES&S (Electronic Systems & Software) argues such a result would throw that election into "complete chaos." It could disenfranchise the 1.2 million registered voters in these three counties.

ES&S serves approximately 3,000 of the nation’s more than 10,000 voting jurisdictions. It is 100% American-owned and, over thirty years, has grown into the industry leader with voting-machine solutions for each phase of an election. ES&S notes The ExpressVote XL is one of the voting systems certified by the Federal Election Assistance Commission. It has been certified twice by Pennsylvania's department of State. It also has been state certified in California, Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey and Texas.

In Philadelphia, the first County to purchase this system, ES&S notes there were 827 public demonstrations of the ExpressVote XL between June 2019 and October 2019, and more than 100 poll worker trainings throughout the City. In Northampton County, I can add there were at least 20 public demonstration and five training sessions for elections workers. In Philly, a pilot election was conducted in August 2019 involving 80 ExpressVote XLs across the City of Philadelphia and more than 100 Board of Elections employees. (Unfortunately, this did not happen in NorCo and should before the Spring primary).

Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar has affirmed with ES&S that it is simply “too late for Counties to replace ExpressVote XL machines in time for the 2020 primary, which will be held on April 28, 2020.” That is apparent given the fact that “[t]he ballot for an election is finalized roughly 50 days before the election.” For the April primaries, the ballot will need to be finalized around March 9, 2020 – less than three months from now. ES&S argues that unfounded assertions must give way to the considered judgment of Secretary Boockvar and the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Failed Presidential candidate Jill Stein speculates it is “feasible for malware to cause the machines to print bar codes that corresponded to candidates the voter did not select.” ES&S disagrees. "There is absolutely no record that any of the kind of hypothetical malicious cybersecurity breaches Plaintiffs describe have ever taken place, either in actual elections or in testing of the ExpressVote XL," it asserts. In addition, it observes its system has no connection to the Internet.

McClure Testifies to Pa. Senate on Election Integrity

Yesterday, NorCo Exec Lamont McClure was one of several local officials to testify before the Pa. Senate on election integrity. Although this review may very well be Republican-inspired, it's always a good idea to review our elections to determine what works well and where we can improve. County officials would like to begin counting mail-in ballots prior to election day. They also think the cutoff date for requesting a mail-in ballot, currently set at one week before the election, gives them too little time. There are other issues to consider as well: drop boxes; the danger of ballot harvesting; allowing voters to cure errors on their ballots; whether no-excuse mail-in balloting should be eliminated; voter ID; and open primaries. McClure commended the Republican-dominated state legislature for its reform, calling it "the most democratizing piece of legislation in the history of the Commonwealth." He supports two tweaks. First, he'd like election officials to have 21 days to pre-canvass mail-in ballots. Second, he'd like statutory authority to send a mail-in ballot application to every registered voter.

Of course, other local officials have different views. One Westmoreland County Commissioner asked that no-excuse mail-in balloting be eliminated, although he was contradicted by other Westmoreland County officials. 

McClure's Statement: 

The responsibility of running elections has always fallen on the shoulders of county government and it is a heavy responsibility. Voting is the cornerstone of every democracy and there is no room for error. Casting a ballot must be accessible to every eligible citizen and the process must be secure from registering to vote to the certification of the final results. The method of counting ballots must be reliable, the final tally incontestable and the entire process open to examination by the public. Plus you have to find a way to pay for it all.

 

Our bedrock principle in Northampton County is to put on fair, legal and accurate elections, and that’s what we did in 2020. Northampton is recognized not only a bellwether of the Commonwealth, but also of the nation. Over the past one hundred years, Northampton County has differed from the national result in a presidential election only three times.

 

In Northampton County, we know a little something about election stress tests. Pursuant to the Commonwealth’s settlement of the Stein case, Northampton County purchased the ES&S ExpressVote XL, a state-of-the-art touchscreen system with a paper ballot backup. In the context of election security, this was light years ahead of the DREs we had previously used. We were excited about this upgrade and paid $2.9 million dollars believing that not only would our election security be enhanced, but the experience would be better for the voter. During our election in November 2019 it quickly became clear that something was not right. By the end of the day, we learned of not just one, but two distinct problems which imperiled the entire outcome of the election.

 

Throughout the day we had fielded reports of touchscreens that were “glitchy,” particularly in the margins. What we subsequently learned was that approximately 1/3 of the machines we’d purchased had not been properly calibrated at the factory before ES&S shipped them to us. Despite these worrisome reports we were heartened to discover that, when questioned about whether their selections had showed up on the paper ballot, voter after voter indicated that they had. It may have taken a few extra taps on the touchscreen but, once they finalized their selections and hit print, the names of their chosen candidates were printed out on a paper ballot that they could review.

 

After 8:00PM that night, I got a call that no County Executive wants to receive. An additional factory error, initiated by ES&S mis-coding caused the votes for cross-filed races to fail to be tallied on the XL’s memory stick. Using the computer results became impossible. Instead, we would have to count the paper ballots. And, we did. All night long. Using high speed scanners we counted over 60,000 ballots and, by 5AM the next morning we had results. And, while this was not our preferred method of conducting an election, we learned a very important lesson—the paper ballot backup works. Ahead of what was likely to result in unprecedented turnout in a presidential year, if the voting machines failed, the paper ballot backup would allow us to put on a fair, legal and accurate election.

 

(I’m happy to report that ES&S quickly investigated the matter, made the requisite fixes and we went through a very busy 2020 without a glitch.)

 

After our harrowing experience, Governor Wolf signed Act 77 tasking election officials with essentially implementing two voting systems—one at the polls and one by no-excuse mail-in ballots. The General Election in 2020 required nearly 1500 people to handle both systems. Our County Council added another million dollars to our election’s budget to ensure there were enough resources. Because of the dedication of our staff and volunteers and the willingness of Council to provide additional funding, I’m happy to report our Primary and General Elections were virtually flawless. During the Primary of 2020 we were one of the first three counties in the Commonwealth to report our results. In November, we were the first to report our 2020 General Election results, posting them at approximately 6:00AM Wednesday morning.

 

I understand that Act 77 has come under intense and withering criticism from virtually all quarters. Some the concerns are valid such as the increased volume of work the new law has imposed on Registrars across the Commonwealth. Others are nothing more than conspiracy theories. Are there aspects of the law that can be improved? I think the answer to that question is, yes. However, it is the view of Northampton County that the Legislature should be commended for Act 77. It is the most democratizing piece of legislation in the history of the Commonwealth, and it is a statute its drafters and all those who voted for it can be deeply proud of upon reflection. 

 

Registrars across the state want to put on fair, legal and accurate elections, but they need your assistance. It is not feasible for them to conduct two separate elections on the same day. Allowing twenty-one days to pre-canvass mail-in ballots would give them more time. Sending an application to vote by mail to every voter has been shown to increase participation.

 

Voting is the cornerstone of our democracy. For our citizens to have confidence in the process we must increase accessibility and participation for voters and we must give our Registrars the tools and the space they need to do their work. As we saw in 2020, delays in reporting results can be weaponized and used to form conspiracy theories. As public servants, we serve the people of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I encourage the committee to not go backwards on Act 77, but to improve it.

 

NorCo Council Approves New Voting System

At a meeting attended by about 50 supporters of dueling voting systems, Northampton County Council voted 8-1 last night to approve a $2.9 million contract to purchase a new touchscreen voting system with a voter-verified paper trail. County officials expect to have it in place for November's election. The sole dissenting vote came from Council member Bob Werner.

This purchase was delayed by Council to see how this new system worked in Delaware, which conducted school board races on Tuesday. Northampton County's administrator Amy Cozze attended this election as an official observer, and reported the machines were unqualified success. Her endorsement was echoed by a Delaware State election official who phoned in. Castle Point, a Delaware newspaper, reports that county officials in the First State give the new system an A.

This is an unfunded mandate. Last year, Pennsylvania's Department of State directed all 67 counties to select new voting systems that include a voter verifiable paper trail, making post-election audits more accurate. They must be in place before the 2020 primary. Though the statewide cost of his change is estimated at $125 million to $150 million, the state has yet to provide any of the funding. The federal government has provided a $342,000 grant to Northampton County.

The Express Vote XL is a 32" touch screen similar to the system currently in use. It was the overwhelming and nonpartisan choice of election judges who attended a day-long presentation of different voting systems earlier this year. In March, the Elections Commission voted 3-2 to endorse this system over paper ballots that would be scanned.

Opponents of Express Vote XL, some of whom spoke several times, expressed security concerns even though it is a stand alone system with no network connection. They also complained that a vote could flip after it is cast, going to a different candidate than the person selected. They also argued that moving the machine would present calibration issues, making it inaccurate. They also criticized a bar code on ballots.

These concerns were discounted by ExpressVote XL vendors. There is no Internet connection. Testing on the state and federal level revealed that flipping is nonexistent. There also is no calibration problem. Vendors also pointed out that barcodes are common everywhere, from grocery store to hospital.

Numerous election judges and poll workers spoke in support of the new system. They argued it would be familiar to voters and present none of the privacy concerns or multiple lines that would accompany paper ballots.

In addition to election judges, Elections Commissioner Maude Hornick said she supported ExpressVote XL because she wants no election official to decide how she intended to vote.

Trudy Fatzinger, Secretary of Pennsylvania Council for the Blind, reported that ExpressVote XL is handicapped-friendly. This was a selling point to Executive Lamont McClure, who observed that 25% of Pennsylvania's registered voters have some form of disability.

What sold Council member Matt Dietz was money. When this matter was tabled a few weeks ago, Administrator Charles Dertinger warned that the County would be forced to be $20,000 in shipping costs. At Dietz' request, the vendor agreed to wave this additional cost.

Voter Verifiable Ballots Will Help Minimize Election Errors

Over the weekend, I received a comment from a reader suggesting that "newer technology HAS already disrupted and changed final totals all across this nation." He suggests that if a system fails more than once, it should be replaced. "Accurate elections are too important," he concludes. I'll agree that newer technology, combined with mail-in ballots, have undermined public confidence in election integrity. But under this reader's logic, we'd have to get rid of democracy entirely to fix this problem. That is because ALL voting systems fail, and more than once. This can be established through our own history of voting. The only difference between the problems with elections now and those under other systems is that we are acutely aware of these problems on election day. That is because of voter verifiable ballots, under which voters can see for themselves if their intentions are being honored. Thus, when a problem is discovered on election day, voters are the first to know.

Voting in America was originally "viva vocce." If you were white, male and over 21, you'd go to the courthouse on election day, swear an oath and publicly announce your choices in front of everyone who was in there, actively campaigning. Obviously, the potential for fraud and abuse was great. You could easily sell your vote. But turnouts were great and alcohol flowed freely. 

To prevent that, elections officials decided to replace voice voting with secret paper ballots. At its advent, you could just scrawl your candidate's name on any piece of paper. Then political parties got wise, and began preparing their own ballots (called tickets) that you could throw in the box. This led to accusations of voter fraud and ballot box stuffing, something that I'm told (anecdotally) did happen here as ballot boxes made their way to the courthouse from the four corners of the county. 

In an effort to prevent this kind of fraud. the first green monster - a heavy lever voting machine - was invented and widely used in America throughout the 20th century. Like an old Crown Victoria, something about those hulking machines inspired confidence. Draped in a privacy curtain, you could select individual levers or straight party and then cast your ballot by pulling the main lever to open the curtain. You'd hear a solid thud and would be confident that your vote was cast. 

But did your vote actually count? Behind that secure curtain, there were problems. 

"For one, these machines had thousands of moving parts. They required careful maintenance and were difficult to test. When the last machines were produced in 1982, fixing and replacing worn parts became nearly impossible. Lever voting machines were also not tamperproof: they were vulnerable to the very technicians who were supposed to maintain them. The machines were also inaccessible to voters with physical limitations: the labels with candidates’ names were hard to see, and pulling the levers required strength and mobility."

As the teeth on gears began to wear, the result would be miscounts rarely caught by elections officials. Everyone had confidence in and loved these behemoths, but they were increasing undercounts in elections. 

Some jurisdictions began replacing the lever machines with punch cards, but that was a nightmare. We witnessed that during the 2020 Presidential, when election workers in Florida had to decide whether a dimpled or hanging chad should count.   

Northampton County fought to keep the lever machines in place as long as it could, but eventually had to replace them. 

In its first foray into life beyond the lever, NorCo chose what may very well have been the worst voting machine in the US. - the AVS WinVote. This system was so bad that music on your cell phone could cause it to go haywire. To make matters worse, the version NorCo used in an election had never been certified. Oops!

touchscreen that looked like a lever machine

Northampton County then opted for 300 touch screen voting machines that at least looked like the old lever machines. - the Advantage D-10. This heavy (200 pounds) touchscreen computer was user friendly, even to those who are differently abled. People really liked using it, and I'm unaware of any problems with it other than screen sensitivity. But it had one major drawback. Just like its green cousin, there was no way for a voter to determine if his touchscreen choices were actually registered. 

In response to concerns that there be a paper trail, Congress enacted the Help America Vote Act, which required the states, over time, to have a paper record of each vote cast, and one that the voter himself could verify. 

That's how Northampton County ended up with the Express Vote XL, which combines the convenience of a touch screen with a summary card on which you can review your choices. If you dislike them, you can spoil your ballot and choose again before casting your vote. Some people liked paper ballots that could be scanned, but I liked the redundancy of having my vote on both a flash drive and paper ballot, and with the understanding that the paper ballot rules. 

In 2019 and again this year, there have been problems with this system. The machine itself has been fine. It has been certified and recertified. It survived challenges in both federal and state court. There have been problems with programming, pre-election testing and having paper ballot backups at the polls. This has understandably created a crisis of confidence. But these are problems that would never have been noticed but for the voter verifiable ballot. 

Like you, I'm unhappy to see just one voter deprived of that right, which certainly happened. But thanks to the paper trail, voters and elections officials were able to detect a problem and make attempts to fix it. 

The days of blissful ignorance are over.  Our confidence in the green lever machines was misplaced. The paper trails we see on elections day can make them more sloppy and chaotic. But they will be more accurate. 

Allentown City Council Rejects $4 Million Citizen Initiative to Limit Police Response to 9-1-1 Calls

By a 4-2 vote last night, Allentown City Council rejected a citizen initiative to limit police response to many 9-1-1 calls and replace them with a $4 million mobile community response team consisting of social workers and EMTs who were never asked to participate. Voting against the initiative were Daryl Hendricks, Ed Zucal, Cynthia Mota and Candida Affa. Voting Yes were Ce-Ce Gerlach and Natalie Santos. 

Santo Napoli was absent.

This rejection fails to kill the initiative, which has the support of 3,800 registered voters. Instead, it will go the Lehigh County Board of Elections to be placed on the ballot for November's election.

Whether it gets there, however, is by no means a sure thing. Allentown Solicitor Charles F Smith, Jr., advised City Council that the expenditure of $4 million outside of the budget process contravenes the Home Rule Charter, In addition, he said Allentown has no authority over county-employed 9-1-1 dispatchers who are governed by state law. 

Before the vote, Mayor Matt Tuerk told City Council that the initiative has a "host of problems" that include misleading statements by petition circulators, but its biggest problem is that "this contravenes our form of government. We have a strong Mayor form of government" in which the Mayor is charged with preparing a presenting an annual budget. "This takes $4 million off the top and says we shall spend it in a particular way. It's not how we normally do things." He also blasted the lack of collaboration. "Programs that are successful need to have buy-in from the program participants. ... We should work to serve the public safety needs of our community, but we should do it together. That's not what happened here." He called the initiaticve  " a solution looking for a problem"

Among the numerous people who spoke against the initiative was Sgt Ben Iobst of Allentown Police Department (APD). He noted that APD already has crisis intervention teams (CIT) respond to mental health issues. He said every police officer receives 36 hours of de-escalation training, followed by 3 hours of A'town specific mental health training. Officers in  CIT receive an additional 40 hours of training. Crisis negotiation team gets 80 hours of training plus 96 hours of annual training. 

In contrast to what appears to be misinformation by initiative supporters, Iobst stated that APD made only 33 arrests last year of people with mental health issues. Nearly every one of those arrests was diverted by the DA for treatment. 

Police responding to overdoses saved the lives of 146 people in 2020, 174 in 2021 and 143 in 2022. After reversing these overdoses, they go out with Treatment Trends and do follow ups, not to arrest people, but get them help. 

SGT Iobst indicated that 1,268 serious mental health incidents called into police in 2022. Officers made 906 referrals to mental health services. 

In addition, they stopped 22 people who were actively attempting suicide. 

Iobst would know, He stopped one attempted suicide victim who had just learned he had a serious illness and was trying to jump off a roof.  In contrast to Iobst, initiative supporter Ce-Ce Gerlach filmed a suicide aftermath, and the victim's family learned about it from her Facebook Live. 

"Don't look at our officers like they're dangerous and can't respond to mental health issues," said Iobst. He instead called them "experts and heroes who do an amazing job and should be celebrated as community role models" 

Vicki Kistler, Allentown DCED Director, said she was at a neighborhood watch meeting and heard the initiative presented as an APD, Allentown Health Department program. People who signed the initiative later told her, "I had no idea what I was signing."  Incidentally, Kistler was a social worker. "I don't see a line of social workers saying this is a great program." 

Mehmet Barzev, who directs EMS in Allentown, was surprised to learn that his department was included in the mobile community response team. "We were not asked for any input in this." 

Something tells me this initiative will be rejected by Lehigh County's Election Board. It's illegal. 

Delano's Den: Midterm Analysis

Jon Delano, Money and Politics editor at KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, can be reached here. Here's his analysis.

In just two weeks, some 90 million Americans are expected to go to the polls in the 2018 Mid-term Election. Sadly, that's still only 42 percent of the electorate, and, of course, voter turnout will dip and rise depending on the state and the contest. I have seen reports that turnout could be larger than normal, so who knows.

Once again, Pennsylvania is critical in whether there is really a "blue Democratic wave" sweeping the country or whether Trump Republicans & Trump Democrats will turn out to stem what everyone assumes will be GOP electoral losses on November 6.

Will Republicans maintain control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress and the vast majority of governorships? Or will some outpouring of anti-Trump fervor sweep the Democrats into at least partial control of parts of the government?

As a TV and radio political analyst for nearly 25 years and public policy graduate school professor for almost as long, this is my periodic report to you. If you are new to receiving this, welcome. I hope you stay on board. If you are a regular, thanks for your loyalty.

As always, if you need a speaker or moderator for a public policy program or a review of what happened in this election and what it all means, send me an email at jon@jondelano.com. I love to talk politics!

My focus in this newsletter is Pennsylvania and its unique role in this unfolding political drama. A lot is at stake on November 6. Do Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who oppose President Trump and a Republican Congress (that hardly ever stands up to him) show up to vote in record numbers? Or do Republicans, Democrats, and Independents who like what the President is doing say "more of the same" for the next two years?

As I outline below, Pennsylvanians will play a key role in answering those questions.

Feel free to share this newsletter with others, and let me know what you think, give me your comments, or send me off-the-record insights at jon@jondelano.com.

SUMMARY:

For the Democrats to have the slightest chance of a majority in the U.S. Senate, Bob Casey must be reelected by Pennsylvanians. For the U.S. House of Representatives to go Democratic this fall, Democrats must pick up at least four Pennsylvania congressional seats in the House. And, finally, for state Democrats to have any say in Harrisburg, especially with respect to redistricting following the 2020 Census, Gov. Tom Wolf must be reelected.

For those convinced Democrats will sweep, I would suggest a gentle reminder that this state voted for and elected Donald Trump president of the United States in 2016. Although his margin was just 44,000 votes out of 6.1 million cast, his victory, especially in western PA where he won every county except Allegheny, was impressive.

This state is always up for grabs, and the margin of victory (for either party) is almost always in the single digits. In former PA Sen. Scott Wagner and U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, the Republicans have two credible candidates for governor and Senate, although each has flaws like the incumbents they challenge. I would not write them off just because national pundits think this will be a "Democratic" year. Pennsylvanians will make up their own minds in the next two weeks, and depending on voter turnout, the margin is likely to be closer than many think.

So let's take a better look at these contests.

GOVERNOR'S RACE HAS BEEN HO-HUM

Overview:

If anyone thought this was going to be an exciting race between two highly charged candidates for the top office in the Commonwealth, they didn't really know Gov. Tom Wolf, the Democratic incumbent. In my view, he has done everything possible to keep this race -- and his Republican opponent Scott Wagner -- below the radar screen, and Wagner has been complicit.

Oh, sure, we've seen plenty of TV ads, predictably hailing the state's top executive and attacking Wagner -- and, of course, Wagner is doing the same to Wolf, although with much less money to do so.

But the governor's strategy from the get-go was to deny Wagner any kind of "free media" platform, and that has largely worked. For his part, Wagner's free media has not really helped the challenger (e.g., "I'll stomp all over his face with golf spikes.").

Wolf broke with tradition to deny Wagner any legitimate public debate (unless you count the ludicrous Alex Trebek show at the PA Chamber of Business & Industry a "legitimate" debate when Trebek used more time to talk than either Wagner or Wolf).

Former Gov. Tom Corbett gave challenger Wolf the "traditional" three debates in 2014, but Wolf was of no mind to accord the same to Wagner. So other than their paid advertising and periodic print & broadcast stories, this race has been surprisingly docile.

Outcome:

That has to be good news for Wolf.

Only one incumbent governor has lost reelection since1970 when PA governors were given the right to serve a second term, and that, of course, was Corbett in 2014. All the others were reelected. Some were reasonably close. Gov. Milton Shapp beat Drew Lewis by 300,000 votes in 1974; Gov. Dick Thornburgh beat Allen Ertel by just 100,000 votes in 1982.

But others were landslides. Gov. Tom Ridge beat Ivan Itkin by nearly 800,000 votes in 1998; Gov. Ed Rendell beat Lynn Swann by 830,000 votes in 2006; and Gov. Bob Casey beat Barbara Hafer by 1.1 million votes in 1990.

It's not that Wolf's been the perfect governor. Democratic insiders complain that he is rarely strategically "political" and gets "jerked around" by the Republicans who control the General Assembly. But, in fairness, it's hard to be a Democrat in Harrisburg when the party is so weak in the state House and Senate. What surprises many is that Wolf has actually been able to make some progress on some issues with the legislature, and he has been unafraid to use "executive" power to achieve other goals.

But on the issues that Wagner complains most about -- taxes, deficits, school funding, etc. -- whatever Wolf has done (or not done) has been because of the Republican-controlled legislature.

In the larger scheme of national politics, what matters most to Democrats is that Tom Wolf be in place to veto Republican bills, especially those that pertain to reducing voting rights, limiting health care, and gerrymandering districts after the 2020 census. That's why if this is a Democratic "wave" election, Wolf will win a second term.

BATTLE FOR U.S. SENATE RUNS THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA

Overview:

Democrats would love to control the U.S. Senate. After all, that's the body that has given President Trump a record number of judges and other appointments that many have criticized, including the 50-48 confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, which almost certainly means a "scaling back" in some way of abortion rights in the years to come.

The Republicans only hold the Senate 51 to 49 (counting the two Independents, Bernie Sanders & Angus King as Democrats with whom they caucus), so it would seem very do-able at first blush.

But Democrats are defending 26 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, and 10 of those are in states that Trump won in 2016. Five of these Democratic incumbents are running in states that the president won in a landslide: Claire McCaskill (Missouri +18); Joe Donnelly (Indiana +19); Jon Tester (Montana +20); Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota +35); and Joe Manchin (West Virginia +41).

Besides these five presumed "vulnerable" Democrats, there is at least one other Democratic incumbent in the "toss up" category. U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida is facing a strong challenge from Republican Gov. Rick Scott in another state won by Trump.

To win control of the U.S. Senate, it's not enough that Democratic incumbents win reelection everywhere in the country. They must also defeat Republicans or win open seats in at least two other states, three if Heitkamp loses in North Dakota, as many predict. [Don't forget. Vice President Pence breaks the tie in a 50-50 body].

Right now, Democrats have three (maybe four) states that (maybe) could elect a Democratic senator: Arizona where U.S. Rep. Krysten Sinema (D) will face off against U.S. Rep. Martha Sally (R); Nevada where U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) is trying to upend U.S. Sen. Dean Heller (R); Tennessee where former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has a shot at beating U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn(R); and Texas where U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) is running uphill but stronger-than-expected against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R).

With just two weeks to go, some polls show Democrats behind in all four of these states, although at this stage I caution that what really counts is the Get-Out-The-Vote effort of each campaign. For example, if every Hispanic American in Texas turned out to vote for O'Rourke over Cruz to protest President Trump's immigration policy, O'Rourke would win. That seems unlikely, but theories like this will make Election Night interesting for many of us political addicts.

The number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight say the Democrats have a 19.8 percent chance of taking control of the Senate. A long-shot, yes, but do-able if there really is a turn-out wave for Democrats.

Into this mix is the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania where President Trump and state Republicans think they see a particularly vulnerable incumbent in Bob Casey.

Can a Casey be Defeated in Pennsylvania?

"He's not like his father," says President Trump and many other GOP leaders in Pennsylvania.

By that they mean, of course, that U.S. Sen. Bob Casey is not the ideological conservative Democrat that his late father, Gov. Bob Casey, was, a man often at odds with the national Democratic establishment of his era.

But if Casey the Younger is in step with his party of the 21st century, why should that surprise anyone?

The more important question is, has Casey given voters any reason to deny him a third term in 2018? At this stage, most polls suggest not. The most recent poll has Casey up by 14 points. Considering he won in 2012 by just 8 points over an even lesser known GOP candidate (Tom Smith), many suspect this race is closer than the polling shows a few weeks out.

Still, the incumbent Democrat starts off with huge advantages. Name recognition, for one. A Bob Casey, often unrelated, has been on the state ballot since the 1966. Everybody knows Bob Casey.

Second, money. As of September 30, Casey had cash-on-hand of $6.7 million, having raised $20.9 million in the cycle, while his Republican challenger had $1.3 million on hand with an overall take of $6.2 million.

Third, message. Casey has been increasingly critical of the President with stronger words and louder rhetoric than the soft-spoken senator usually utters. There's nothing wishy-washy about his positions on issues these days, a clear sign that he thinks Pennsylvanians want someone who will stand up to the President.

Enter U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta of Hazleton PA in Luzerne County, not far from where Casey grew up in northeastern PA.

Barletta is President Trump's favorite candidate in Pennsylvania, urging him to run for Senate from the get-go. No surprise there. Barletta was an early supporter of Candidate Trump in 2016, and co-chaired the president's ultimately successful campaign in this state.

Most people don't know Barletta, as he doesn't come from the mega-media markets of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Still, he was a small town mayor who made big waves with his opposition to illegal immigration in Hazleton. It's obviously one of several issues that unites him with Trump.

In fact, when I asked Barletta where he disagreed with the president, he could only offer one -- he supported the Eagles in the Super Bowl, while Trump backed the Patriots. By the way, in a sign of how tight Trump and Barletta are, Barletta was one of the few invited to Mar-a-Lago to watch the Super Bowl with the president.

So if you're looking for a referendum on Donald Trump, the Casey-Barletta race is clearly one.

Trump is taking significant personal interest in this race, already campaigning for Barletta in Erie and earlier in Wilkes-Barre where he called the soft-spoken Casey "Sleeping Bob." A month or so later, that evolved into a rather well-made TV ad showing a Casey look-alike sleeping.

Of course, when it comes to most things Trump, Casey has found his voice, which is usually strong and sometimes strident. There is little doubt that Barletta is right that Casey has taken a turn to the left over the last few years. The question is, in the era of Donald Trump, do Pennsylvanians care?

If Casey loses to Barletta -- still thought by most to be unlikely -- there is no hope at all of the Democrats winning control of the U.S. Senate.

PENNSYLVANIA KEY TO CONTROL OF U.S. HOUSE

Overview:

With 435 members in the U.S. House of Representatives -- and 18 elected here in this Commonwealth -- Pennsylvania will play a larger role than ever in determining whether Democrats can retake control of that body.

Democrats must pick up a net of 23 seats to win control of the U.S. House, and 4 of those pick-up seats (17% of the gain needed) must come from Pennsylvania.

As I will outline below, many of these 18 seats are now in play, primarily because the state Supreme Court ruled "unconstitutional" the political gerrymandering of state Republicans in 2011. Those old district lines essentially guaranteed Republicans 13 of the state's 18 seats even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by 4.0 million to 3.2 million (with 1.2 million in other parties or independents).

In my view, Democrats need to split the PA seats, 9 to 9, to take control of the U.S. House. Some of the new districts are more competitive, allowing both parties the chance to pick up seats. And both parties have nominated credible candidates.

The national historic trend cannot be ignored. Traditionally, the party in the White House tends to lose seats in the U.S. House during the president's first term. Since the Civil War, that party has lost seats in the midterm 36 out of 39 elections, losing an average of 33 seats. In modern times (since World War II), the average number of seats lost is 26.

Of course, there are exceptions: 1998 and 2002 stand out. When House Republicans sought to impeach Bill Clinton in 1998, the country reacted by electing more Democrats. Similarly, George Bush's performance after 9/11 allowed his Republican Party to pick up seats in 2002.

But unlike those years, most pundits think the Democrats have a better than 50-50 chance to win the House, especially if President Trump's overall popularity remains static. Real Clear Politics has the president's favorable average at 43.2, nearly 10 points below is unfavorable average at 53.0. If Trump's approval rating stays in the low 40's, it's hard to imagine Republicans picking up seats. But, remember, the GOP goal is to keep the losses to under 23, allowing them slender control, but control nonetheless, of the House.

Pennsylvania's "Safest" Districts:

No matter how "compact, contiguous, and fair" you draw congressional district lines, some districts are inherently one-party simply because they are mostly urban or rural. That is true in Pennsylvania, too, where political battles in these districts will be within the party primary, not the general election.

Of the 18 districts in this state, at least eight can be classified as "safe" for the majority party. These include the 2nd & 3rd Districts in Philadelphia, represented by Democratic U.S. Reps. Brendan Boyle & Dwight Evans, the new 4th District in Philadelphia & Montgomery County now represented by retiring U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, but likely to be retained by PA Rep. Madeleine Dean, the Democratic nominee; the 11th District in York & Lancaster Counties represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker; the 12th District that includes all or part of 15 counties in north-central PA represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Marino; the 13th District in southwest-central PA now represented by retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster and likely to be retained by Dr. John Joyce, the Republican nominee; the 15th District in northwest-central PA represented by Republican U.S. Rep. G.T. Glenn Thompson; and the Pittsburgh-based 18th District represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle.

In addition to these eight reasonably safe districts, I know some political cognoscenti would toss in a couple of other districts listed below. But I am using an expansive definition of "competitive" just in case that "blue wave" becomes a tsunami.

Let's take a brief look at each of the other ten districts, which I have broken down into two categories: "competitive" and "possibly competitive."

Pennsylvania's "Competitive" Congressional Districts

1st Congressional -- Fitzpatrick (R inc.) v. Wallace (D)

U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is hoping his mostly Bucks County constituents see him as a very moderate Republican. He did vote against the GOP bill to repeal Obamacare and is endorsed by Gabby Giffords' gun control group, but his Democratic opponent, philanthropist Scott Wallace (grandson of FDR's vice president Henry Wallace) wants voters to think "Trump-enabler" when you think Fitzpatrick. Wallace has had problems of his own. His philanthropic fund donated to groups that support the BDS boycott of Israel for its treatment of Palestinians, although Wallace calls himself pro-Israel and blames other fund directors for those donations. With roughly 215,000 Democrats & 204,000 Republicans & 82,000 Independents, just about everyone thinks this district is a toss-up and up for grabs.

5th Congressional -- Open -- Scanlon (D) v. Kim (R)

Accused of sexual harassment, Republican U.S. Rep. Pat Meehan chose to resign, leaving this seat a likely pick-up for the Democrats. The newly redrawn district in Delaware County favors the Dems, roughly 255,000 to 176,000, where Hillary Clinton won by 28 points. Attorney Mary Gay Scanlon is the Democratic nominee against former prosecutor Pearl Kim, a Republican. Scanlon's career has focused on children and education, but she has embraced Democratic progressive positions on most issues from immigration to healthcare. Republican Kim, whose parents immigrated from Korea, has an equally impressive resume, working in both the PA Attorney General's office and local District Attorney's office with a special focus on human trafficking. Most pundits see this district "likely" Democratic. By the way, the same day voters elect a new representative for the 117th Congress starting in January, they will elect one to serve out the term of Meehan, giving the winner a leg up on seniority.

6th Congressional -- Open -- Houlahan (D) v. McCauley (R)

This district has often been a battleground between the parties with Republicans like U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello eking out victories. But the new district lines in Chester and part of Berks County makes this a slightly more favorable district for the Democrats, with Hillary Clinton winning by 10 points instead of just 1 point. Costello decided to retire at the last minute, leaving the GOP nomination in the hands of Greg McCauley, a tax attorney and former Wendy's franchise owner. McCauley had filed to challenge Costello for not being pro-Trump enough. The Democrats already had their candidate in Chrissy Houlahan, an Air Force veteran and businesswoman who has simply out-fundraised McCauley. Latest reports show her with $2.6 million cash on hand and McCauley with $129,000. Most expect this district to be a relatively easy pick-up for the Democrats.

7th Congressional -- Open -- Wild (D) v. Nothstein (R)

This district in the Lehigh Valley (Allentown/Bethlehem) has been another one of those battleground districts with moderate Republicans like former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, a frequent Trump critic, usually beating the Democrats. But Court-mandated redistricting has made the 7th a bit more Democratic, turning the district from a +8 Trump district to a +1 Clinton district. Dent resigned his seat, and Republicans nominated Lehigh County Commission chair Marty Nothstein, while Democrats opted for former Allentown solicitor Susan Wild. Democrats do outnumber Republicans by 60,000, but Independents represent about 83,000 of the registered voters. Nothstein, a gold medal Olympics cyclist and an elected official, may have started with better name ID , but Wild has out-fundraised Nothstein two-to-one. Most analysts say this district leans Democratic.

17th Congressional District -- Rothfus (R inc.) v. Lamb (D inc.)

This is probably the most watched race in Pennsylvania this year, where two well-funded incumbents are battling in the suburbs of Pittsburgh: Republican U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus v. Democratic U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb. It is the only race in the nation where two incumbents are running against each other. The district includes major suburbs in Allegheny County and a small part of Butler County and all of Beaver County, a district that voted for Trump over Clinton by just 2 points. In terms of registration it's about 256,000 Democrats, 187,000 Republicans, and 70,000 Independents. In a "wave" year, Lamb should win this seat, and one poll has him up by 12 over Rothfus. That may be one reason that the NRCC (National Republican Campaign Committee) pulled its TV money from Pittsburgh. But Rothfus seems to be on TV as much as Lamb, so maybe he has enough money to win. As October began, he had $400,000 cash-on-hand to Lamb's $880,000. Bottom line. If suburban women stick with Lamb (as they did over PA Rep. Rick Saccone in Lamb's special election in March), Lamb ought to win this seat, which is why most pundits now think this district leans Democratic.

Pennsylvania's "Possibly Competitive" Congressional Districts

8th Congressional -- Cartwright (D inc.) v. Chrin (R)

Based in Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) and Lackawanna (Scranton) counties, Republicans think U.S. Matt Cartwright is vulnerable, even though the Democrat won in 2016 despite a Trump win of 10 points that year. The new district isn't a whole lot different, but Republicans have a very wealthy former banker from JP Morgan Chase and Merrill Lynch named John Chrin, who can self-fund a competitive race. It's a classic white working class district that liked Trump in 2016 while voting for Cartwright at the same time. The district has at least 75,000 more Democrats than Republicans, but in 2018, Trump voters are being asked to vote for Chrin, not Cartwright. If they do, that augurs well for Trump in the state in 2020, but so far this district seems likely to reelect Cartwright the Democrat.

9th Congressional -- Open -- Wolff (D) v. Meusser (R)

This district, now represented by U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta who gave up his seat to be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate is probably a relatively safe seat for the Republicans in 2018. After all, the district in 8 counties including Berks, Lebanon, and Schuylkill Counties, is overwhelmingly GOP, roughly 298,000 to 162,000. What makes it somewhat interesting is that the Democrats have nominated a conservative "Blue Dog" Democratic dairy farmer in Denny Wolff. Wolff, a former state secretary of agriculture under Gov. Rendell, is facing Dan Meusser, a wealthy businessman and former state secretary of revenue under Gov. Corbett. Meusser is a strong Trump supporter, which should play well in the 9th district. It's hard to imagine a Democratic upset in this district. If there is, you know the "blue wave" is beyond the current dreams of the most partisan Democrats.

10th Congressional District -- Perry (R inc.) v. Scott (D)

The 10th district in south-central PA includes Dauphin County (Harrisburg), York, and Cumberland Counties and should be reasonably safe territory for the reelection of U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a strong conservative and Iraq War veteran. Perry, a member of the House's Freedom Caucus, is being challenged by George Scott, himself a 20-year Army veteran and now a Lutheran minister. The district favors Republicans with around 219,000 Republicans, 197,000 Democrats, and 77,000 Independents. Perry, who was quasi-punked by Sasha Baron Cohen [he accepted a fake pro-Israel award but smartly turned down an 'interview' with Cohen], should prevail, but the redistricting has moved the 10th from a +22 Trump district to a +9 district now. And Democrat Scott has surprised many with his fund-raising. At the end of September, he had cash-on-hand of $520,000 to Perry's $540,000. That gives Democrats hope that in a "wave" year, they can knock off Perry. Maybe, but despite the strong challenge from Scott, many pundits still think Perry will pull this out.

14th Congressional District -- Open -- Boerio (D) v. Reschenthaler (R)

Most analysts put this southwestern PA district in the "likely GOP" category, and they are probably right to do so. But the open seat (once represented by former Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy and essentially the district Lamb won by 3/10ths of 1 percent over PA Rep. Rick Saccone) gives Democrats the dream of a pick-up with their businesswoman candidate Bibiana Boerio (rhymes with Oreo). The numbers can be misleading. This 4-county district has roughly 221,000 Democrats to 185,000 Republicans with 52,000 Independents, but this is strong Trump country (+29). In a hard-fought primary, Republicans chose PA Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, a young protege of Murphy, over Saccone, who narrowly lost the special congressional race to Lamb. When Lamb's hometown was put into the new 17th District, he chose to run there, leaving the 14th District wide open. Democrat Boerio, who comes from vote-rich Westmoreland County, was a former Ford Motor Co. executive who later served a stint as chief of staff to former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak. Republican Reschenthaler did not live in the district until a month or so ago, but he just moved to Washington County from Allegheny County, and portrays himself as a moderate-to-conservative veteran with a stint as a Navy lawyer. This race has been under the radar, in part because the Democrats failed to put any money into it. On her own, Boerio raised some money, going into the last weeks with $234,000 cash-on-hand to Reschenthaler's $253,000. Still, most think Reschenthaler will prevail, returning this seat to the GOP after Lamb, although if this is really the "year of the woman," who knows.

16th Congressional District -- Kelly (R inc.) v. DiNicola (D)

Democrats think that redistricting gives them a shot at beating Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, who hails from Butler County, the southern-most part of the 16th District. The Democrat is attorney Ron DiNicola, an Erie attorney in the northern-most part of the district with 190,000 voters, while Kelly's home county has just 90,000 voters. But the 5-county northwestern PA district still votes Republican even though the registration is practically even between the two major parties, and every county, including Erie, voted for Trump in 2016 by 20 points. Kelly has been closely allied with the president, which makes this district a good test for how far the "wave" extends in 2018, and another reason the president came to Erie recently. But seeing a possible pick-up, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent money here. Kelly is the odds-on favorite to win, but DiNicola, who raised and spent money and is getting outside Democratic support as well, is well-positioned to ride the wave if the blue waters sweep south from Lake Erie.

Summary

When the dust settles after all the ballots are counted in Pennsylvania for the U.S. House of Representatives, instead of the current 12 Republicans & 6 Democrats, Democrats hope to see at least 9 Democrats in their 2019-20 delegation: Boyle, Evans, Dean, Scanlon, Houlahan, Wild, Cartwright, Lamb, and Doyle. Anything less than that is probably a decent night for state Republicans.

But if Democrats pull off wins in any of the other PA congressional districts with Wallace, Scott, DiNicola, Wolff, or Boerio, you know it's a very strong Democratic night across the country. In short, Pennsylvania voters will have a lot to say about the make-up of the Congress next year. Stay tuned.

If you made it to the end of this epistle, five gold stars! I hope you found some of this helpful and informative, especially as you plan to watch the November 6 returns come in. I won't remind you to vote because you wouldn't be on this mailing list if I thought you didn't care about this nation's and the state's future. As always, I welcome your feedback!