So Much For Freedom of Navigation

Iran's decision to close the Strait of Hormuz was just another in a long line of complete disregard of international law. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who might be the only sane member of Trump's cabinet, made very clear that the United States is opposed to charging tolls to use an international waterway. "That’s the law. It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway ... . That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world and that’s the way we’ll expect it’ll be here.”

Infortunately, President Donald Trump, who has little regard for any law, national or international, is now imposing his own toll. "The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World.”

Actions like this make us no better that Iran.

UPDATED 2:12 PM - In the story you see above, I point out that Trump is violating international law with a proposal to impose a 20% toll on oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. This would also increase our gas prices even more than they've already risen since he attacked Iran, stopped, attacked, stopped, attacked, etc.  I am assured by the Trump cult that "Trump is playing 4-D chess while peasants like Boonie lose to chickens playing tic tac toe at the county ... ." Trump has now reversed himself, something you don't do in chess or even tic tac toe.

Trump Blinks ... Again

"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Shakespeare never met Donald Trump but obviously knows the type.  Once again, after days of apocalyptic rhetoric, Trump has blinked and agreed to a two -week ceasefire during which Iran's armed forces will actually facilitate passage through the Strait if Hormuz "with due consideration of technical limitation."  That sounds pretty much to me like a toll booth, something that never existed until Trump began shooting off his mouth and Hegseth started to bray "no quarter, no mercy"

Even Ahab, one of Israel's worst kings, once remarked, "Let not him boast who puts his armor on like him who takes it off." 

Donald Trump and the Pottery Barn Rule

Last night, President Donald Trump addressed the nation about the decision, along with Israel, to attack Iran. It was an address that should have been given 32 days ago. While I completely agree that this use of force is entirely justified and overdue, I find Trump's use of hyperbole ("No one's seen anything like it") to be a bit over the top. His claim that Iran's ability to project force has been decimated, but that's contradicted by the missile and drone attacks that have continued. Three weeks ago, Hegseth announced that Iran's firepower has been reduced by 90%. But those missiles and drones keep coming. Nobody has seen anything like it. On top of that, Trump has claimed we'll be out of there in two weeks or so and has incredibly asserted that the Strait of Hormuz will "open naturally." I've never seen anything like it. 

Is he out of his mind? What we have done is given Iran permission to use Hormuz both as a toll both and as a way to strangle world commerce. Trump forgets the pottery barn rule. You break it, you fix it or pay for it. He bragged about the families of fallen soldiers who told him to finish the job but apparently plans to leave without doing so.  He won't pay. We will. 

I've never seen anything like it. 

How Do Congressional Candidates Feel About Strike on Iran

Incumbent Congressman Ryan Mackenzie -". The world will become a safer place in the long run because of President Trump’s actions."

Robert Brooks -"The Iranian people deserve freedom. Our kids deserve a country that learns from its mistakes. And our troops deserve better than another war in the Middle East. Especially without Congress signing off."

Ryan Croswell - "No one doubts the Iranian regime is dangerous and repressive, but starting a war without a clear objective, without a defined end state, and without Congressional authorization, puts our troops at risk and weakens the very rule of law they swear to protect and defend."

Aiden Alexander Gonzales - nothing on Facebook. 

Lamont McClure - refers to it in passing as an "undeclared, unauthorized war in Iran."

Carol Obando-Derstine - "Regarding the strikes in Iran today - the American people re-elected Trump in hopes of seeing lower gas prices, lower utility bills, and less inflation. But, what we're seeing is unilateral and unchecked decisions to deploy illegal tariffs, launch foreign wars, and experiment with regime change. We deserve better."

Lewis Shupe - nothing on Facebook.

The Attack On Iran Was Overdue

Regular readers of this blog know I detest President Donald Trump. But I agree completely with his decision to authorize a joint US-Israeli attack aimed at Iran. It's about time. 

We've been at war with Iran since 1979, when that country's militants attacked our embassy in Tehran and took 66 hostages. That war has continued with the murder of American troops in Beirut and with the IED devices it supplied to kill hundreds of Americans in Iraq. It has been a state sponsor of terror, arming Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Shia militias. While denying nuclear ambition, it had enriched uranium nearly to the point in which it could build a nuclear bomb. This is the country that has referred to the US as "the Great Satan." It has called Israel a "cancerous tumor," using language that would make Hitler proud.

It brutally represses dissent. It has killed thousands just over the past few months. There is no gender equality. Women are inferior and can be beaten or fined if caught without a hijab. If you're gay and caught in a relationship, the punishment is death. Prostitute? Death. Blasphemy? Death.  

So yes, this attack is overdue.

Is it legal? Many experts say No and that Trump needs Congressional authoriztion. They are forgetting his Article II powers, which are provided for in the Constituion. I believe it imbues the President with broad authority to use military force as he sees fit. This is also what past Presidents have done.

Trump's Attack on Iran's Nuclear Sites Results in Ceasefire

I would never have expected this, but President Donald Trump's attacks at Iranian nuclear sites appears to be on its way to a happy ending. Instead of activating sleeper cells or closing the Strait of Hormuz, I ran has agreed to a ceasefire. Everybody wins. Iran's nuclear dreams have been delayed a few years. Israel has seriously weakened its most belligerent adversary. Iran survives.

Here's how the nonpartisan Institute for the Study of War, which tends to be unbiased, has to say: 

US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire that will go into effect at 12:00 AM ET on June 24. Trump said that Iran would adhere to the ceasefire starting at midnight on June 24 and that Israel would join at noon on June 24. Trump said that the war would officially end at midnight on June 25. Trump congratulated Israel and Iran for “having the stamina, courage, and intelligence” to end the war. Trump announced the ceasefire five hours after Iran conducted a ballistic missile attack targeting US forces in Qatar. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that Iran agreed to a Qatar-mediated, US-proposed ceasefire.

Iran conducted a retaliatory, but largely symbolic, ballistic missile attack targeting a US airbase in Qatar on June 23. Iran launched 14 medium- and short-range ballistic missiles at the United States’ largest position in the Middle East—al Udeid Airbase—just before 1:00 PM ET. The United States and partner forces intercepted 13 missiles and “set free” one missile on a “nonthreatening” trajectory. Trump confirmed that the Iranian attack did not injure or kill any US servicemembers or Qataris and caused “hardly any damage.” Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian claimed after the attack that Iran fired one missile at al Udeid Airbase for each bomb that the United States dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21. Initial reports claimed that Iran also fired a single short-range ballistic missile targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq, but a US military official refuted that claim.

Key Takeaways:

• US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.

• Iran conducted a missile attack targeting the US al Udeid Airbase in Qatar in retaliation for the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. The attack was largely symbolic and inflicted no casualties or damage, however.

• Iranian elite, including some moderate leaders, have reportedly tried to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accept a ceasefire or sideline him entirely. It is unclear what role these individuals played in the US-announced ceasefire.

• Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Policy Majid Takht Ravanchi announced that Iran will remain a member of the NPT. Iranian officials have previously threatened to withdraw from the NPT in response to US and Israeli strikes.

• IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that the United States likely inflicted “very significant damage” in its strikes on the Fordow nuclear site. Iran may have moved some of its nuclear material to undisclosed locations beforehand, however.

Irani Attack Was in US Nat'l Security Interests

Northampton County approved a number of livable landscape grants and have awarded a contract for a new parking deck at the courthouse campus, but those stories will have to wait until tomorrow.

On Saturday evening, US B-2 stealth bombers launched precision strikes at three Irani nuclear sites, including the underground site at Fordow. Not only was this attack justified, but it was in the interest of our own national security. six American warplanes dropped 12 30,000-lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) bunker-busting bombs on Fordow

According to the Institute for the Study of War, satellite imagery of Fordow from June 22 shows six probable entry-point craters on top of a ridge above the underground complex that houses two halls of at least 2000 centrifuges. These were producing nearly enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear weapon per month. Initial Israeli assessments indicate that US strikes did not destroy but inflicted serious damage. Iran may have moved materials and equipment from the site ahead of the strike. A senior US official similarly said that the US strikes did not destroy but severely damaged the Fordow nuclear site and took it “off the table.”

Was it the right thing to do?  Opinion is divided in both parties. 

House Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said that Trump acted unconstitutionally and has given the House grounds for yet another impeachment. But the attack was praised by Democratic Senators John Fetterman and Josh Gottheimer.

Republican congressional leadership lined up behind Trump.  But there are voices in the isolationist MAGA movement, like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Greene Taylor, who condemn our involvement in yet another foreign war.

I believe this strike was an absolute necessity and in our own national security interests. Iran's raison d'etre since 1979 has been to promote a Shia version of an Islamic revolution, including state-sponsored terror by the 3 Hs - Houtis, Hamas and Hezbollah.  It has been a driving force behind international instability. 

British journalist Matthew Syed, whose father was a Pakistani immigrant, makes the case at Triggernometry. Here are some excerpts. 

"The doctrine of mutually assured destruction is what prevents people with nuclear bombs from initiating the first strike, because they worry that in the counter stripe they will be eliminated. So it's a very strong doctrine that even though there are nuclear weapons in the world, we have not yet, thankfully, be subject to a nuclear holocaust."

But Iran, unlike most countries, has no interest in the mutually assured destruction doctrine because they are religious fanatics.  

"They believe that they have absolute truth, many of them in the regime, and that anyone who disagrees with them by implication are infidels, and, moreover, they glorify martyrdom, they believe that if they can take out infidels, they will go through a door, into heaven, and be blessed for eternity." 

"A lot of people don't seem to know about the 20,000 child martyrs who are indoctrinated by the fanatics and the clerics who took over after the ' 79 Revolution to believe that the greatest duty they could perform for Allah was to walk and sometimes run into minefields and up against machine gun fire, to clear a path for the adult military coming in behind, and they died, their limbs strewn across battlefields, and they were then glorified in government propaganda , held up as icons of the Revolution. 

"The fact that the people who are supposed to protect [children] indoctrinated them into what is effectively a death cult seems to me very good evidence, in addition to all the more contemporaneous stuff, - the repression of women, the killing of people who have a sexual [difference], the funding of genocidal proxies committed to the elimination of Israel -  tells me that if they got a nuclear weapon, it is likely they would use it. 

"I could envision an aging fanatical leader initiating a first strike and then looking at the radar screen and seeing the inevitable response in which that person would die in thinking that I am closer to Allah. I don't think that that is true of Vladimir Putter. I don't think Putin is prepared to die for his ideology. He's a venal corrupt leader, of the old school. He's worth billions. He had a Black Sea palace, he's got a young girlfriend . He wants to live. I think the same is true of the North Korean leader, with this ham and his looted opulence. It is not true of religious fundamentalists who glorify martyrdom. 

"Nuclear weapons, potentially 9 or 10 nuclear devices being held by a militarian cult that is committed to the destruction of Israel and calls America the Great Satan. A nuclear war of that kind, even if it occurred between Israel and Iran, would kill hundreds of millions of people around the world."  

So yeah, eliminating Iran as a nuclear threat is in our own national security. If Canadian wildfire smoke can travel to France and interfere with the Criterium du Dauphine, there is little doubt in my mind that the nuclear fallout of a nuclear winter involving as few as 15 nuclear bombs following an exchange between Israel and Iran would kill millions worldwide.

Israel Has No Choice

Although I'll agree that Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu is a thug, there's a marked difference between him and Israel itself. If Iran is able to develop nuclear weapons, there is little doubt in my mind that they will be used, and against Israel. While Tehran insists it only wishes to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes, it is enriching uranium far beyond the level needed for civilian use. Moreover, the UN nuclear watchdog concluded last week that the Persian Power is ignoring its nuclear safeguard obligations. 

With the backing of 19 countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency has determined that

“Iran’s many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the Agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran ... constitutes non-compliance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement.”

Instead of vowing to comply, Iran instead said it would start a new "secure site" and speed up its uranium enrichment program, which is what is needed for nukes. 

So Israel has no choice.

Israel has attacked military targets, but the underground sites might be invulnerable to bunker buster bombs. If that is so, it might be necessary to use troops as Irael did in Syria.  

How Do We Respond to Drone Attack That Killed Three US Soldiers in Jordan and Injured 30+?

Three US soldiers stationed in Jordan near the Syrian border were killed on Saturday night by a kamikaze drone attack that also injured at least 34 more. According to President Joe Biden, "we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.” 

How should we respond? 

President Biden: "[H]ave no doubt — we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing."

President Trump: "This terrible day is yet more proof that we need an immediate return to PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, so that there will be no more chaos, no more destruction, and no more loss of precious American lives. Our Country cannot survive with Joe Biden as Commander in Chief."

Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (on Thursday, before the attack): ""Until Iran feels that its own interests and its own IRGC officers across the region are threatened, attacks on U.S. forces will continue."

Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: "We must work to hold those responsible accountable."

So far, as McConnell has observed, we've been playing whack-a-mole with Iran. 

Is Barack Obama the Neville Chamberlain of the U.S.?

According to Slate, the Geneva accord is a "good deal" that "makes it impossible for the Iranians to make any further progress toward making a nuclear weapon in the next six months—and, if the talks break down after that, and the Iranians decide at that point to start building a nuclear arsenal, it will take them much longer to do so." Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu agrees, but calls it a great deal for Iran.

It's a sad commentary on our President, but I trust Netanyahu over a guy who couldn't even get his facts right over Obamacare. I tend to agree that it is a "historic mistake.," Obama looks to me like the Neville Chamberlain of the United States.

Dent, Callahan Have Similar Views on Iran

John Callahan: "There's no doubt that Iran is a very real threat. Iran cannot be allowed, under any circumstances, to acquire a nucular weapon. It's threat to Israel, it's a threat to our country, it's a threat to peace in he Middle East in general. And I think that we need to have all options on the table. We should continue diplomatic sanctions, we should continue economic sanctions, and if need be, take military action. So all actions - all, all, all options - must be on the table and under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to acquire a nucular weapon."

Charlie Dent: "This threat from Iran is very real. It is one that is going to have to be addressed. I supported many of the sanctions, laws, that have been adopted. I'm certainly hopeful that these sanctions will be effective, particularly the one relating to refined petroleum.

"Iran, of course, produces a great deal of crude oil. They don't refine as much as they need to, they have to import much of their refined crude. Part of The Comprehensive Sanctions Act that I supported earlier this year, and we do hope that the ability of the Iranians to import refined crude, refined oil, will be impacted.

"We also need to disrupt Iranian transfers of money. hen they sell oil, they're paid in dollars - and it's been splashed on the pages of The new York Times so I'm not saying anything out of school here - we've been able to use the Treasury Department effectively to disrupt many of those transfers of money. We need to do that.

"And we are going to need some collaboration from some of our other friends. Not just the Europeans that we all love, but from Russians, from the Chinese and others who in too many cases have turned a blind eye to this Iranian threat.

"Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is a menace. He's a pariah. His people don't like him, and he cannot be allowed to have this. This cannot stand.

"And the military option should remain on the table. I hope it doesn't come to that. Israel may feel so threatened that they will need to take unilateral military action, and there will be an asymmetrical response.

"If Israel were to act, I would stand by Israel. This is a real threat. But please remember, should there be a conflict, there will be responses from Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies all over the world. And it will be something the likes of which we have never seen before. So we have to be very, very careful with our rhetoric on this. Ahmadinejad, again, is a menace and my time is up."

Blogger's Note: Both candidates are in basic agreement about Iran, but it is painfully obvious that Callahan's understanding of the complexity and nuances of foreign policy pales in comparison to Dent. That's no knock on Callahan because I doubt many Congressman have Dent's detailed knowledge of foreign affairs. Even the Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee, Buck McKeon, was forced to admit that Dent has visited Iraq and Afghanistan more than he.

I also couldn't help noticing that Callahan pronounces nuclear exactly like President Bush.

Obama Reacts to Attempted Christmas day Attack, Violence in Iran

This morning, I published LV Congressman Charlie Dent's reaction to a Christmas Day attempt to bomb a passenger jet carrying 250 innocent civilians. President Obama has now spoken out about that, as well as the recent violence in Iran.

Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. I just want to take a few minutes to update the American people on the attempted terrorist attack that occurred on Christmas Day and the steps we're taking to ensure the safety and security of the country.

The investigation is ongoing and I spoke again this morning with Attorney General Eric Holder, the Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, and my Counterterrorism and Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan. I asked them to keep -- continue monitoring the situation, to keep the American people and members of Congress informed.

Here's what we know so far. On Christmas Day, Northwest Airlines Flight 253 was en route from Amsterdam, Netherlands to Detroit. As the plane made its final approach to Detroit Metropolitan Airport, a passenger allegedly tried to ignite an explosive device on his body, setting off a fire.

Thanks to the quick and heroic actions of passengers and crew, the suspect was immediately subdued, the fire was put out, and the plane landed safely. The suspect is now in custody and had been charged with attempting to destroy an aircraft. And a full investigation has been launched into this attempted act of terrorism and we will not rest until we find all who were involved and hold them accountable.

This was a serious reminder of the dangers that we face and the nature of those who threaten our homeland. Had the suspect succeeded in bringing down that plane it could have killed nearly 300 passengers and crew, innocent civilians preparing to celebrate the holidays with their families and friends.

The American people should be assured that we are doing everything in our power to keep you and your families safe and secure during this busy holiday season. Since I was first notified of this incident I've ordered the following actions to be taken to protect the American people and to secure air travel.

First, I directed that we take immediate steps to ensure the safety of the traveling public. We made sure that all flights still in the air were secure and could land safely. We immediately enhanced screening and security procedures for all flights, domestic and international. We added federal air marshals to flights entering and leaving the United States. And we're working closely in this country -- federal, state and local law enforcement -- with our international partners.

Second, I've ordered two important reviews because it's absolutely critical that we learn from this incident and take the necessary measures to prevent future acts of terrorism. The first review involves our watch list system, which our government has had in place for many years to identify known and suspected terrorists so that we can prevent their entry into the United States.

Apparently the suspect in the Christmas incident was in the system, but not on a watch list such as the so-called no-fly list. So I've ordered a thorough review not only of how information related to the subject was handled, but of the overall watch list system and how it can be strengthened.

The second review will examine all screening policies, technologies and procedures related to air travel. We need to determine just how the suspect was able to bring dangerous explosives aboard an aircraft and what additional steps we can take to thwart future attacks.

Third, I've directed my national security team to keep up the pressure on those who would attack our country. We do not yet have all the answers about this latest attempt, but those who would slaughter innocent men, women and children must know that the United States will do more than simply strengthen our defenses -- we will continue to use every element of our national power to disrupt, to dismantle, and defeat the violent extremists who threaten us -- whether they are from Afghanistan or Pakistan, Yemen or Somalia, or anywhere where they are plotting attacks against the U.S. homeland.

Finally, the American people should remain vigilant, but also be confident. Those plotting against us seek not only to undermine our security, but also the open society and the values that we cherish as Americans. This incident, like several that have preceded it demonstrates that an alert and courageous citizenry are far more resilient than an isolated extremist. As a nation we will do everything in our power to protect our country, as Americans we will never give in to fear or division, we will be guided by our hopes, our unity, and our deeply held values. That's who we are as Americans. And that's what our brave men and women in uniform are standing up for as they spend the holidays in harm's way, and we will continue to do everything that we can to keep America safe in the New Year and beyond.

Before I leave let also briefly address the events that have taken place over the last few days in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The United States joins with the international community in strongly condemning the violent and unjust suppression of innocent Iranian citizens, which has apparently resulted in detensions, injuries and even death.

For months the Iranian people have sought nothing more than to exercise their universal rights. Each time they have done so they have been met with the iron fist of brutality, even on solemn occasions and holy days. And each time that has happened the world has watched with deep admiration for the courage and the conviction of the Iranian people, who are a part of Iran's great and enduring civilization.

What's taking place within Iran is not about the United States or any other country -- it's about the Iranian people and their aspirations for justice and a better life for themselves. And the decision of Iran's leaders to govern through fear and tyranny will not succeed in making those aspirations go away. As I said in Oslo, it's telling when governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation.

Along with all free nations the United States stands with those who seek their universal rights. We call upon the Iranian government to abide by the international obligations that it has to respect the rights of its own people. We call for the immediate release of all who have been unjustly detained within Iran. We will continue to bear witness to the extraordinary events that are taking place there. And I'm confident that history will be on the side of those who seek justice.

Thank you very much, everybody, and Happy New Year.

Seems to me that Dent and Obama are pretty much on the same page. If they can do it, can't we?

RIP Neda

The death of a young Iranian girl, Neda Soltani, may have done more to damage the legitimacy of Iranian government than any election fraud. Her last moments are caught on a graphic youtube video. I won't post it. I saw about half of it, and that was enough for me.

"Supreme guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the real source of power, delivered a speech on Friday. Most noteworthy about that was the absence of many senior leaders from Iran's military/security establishment.

And that was before Neda had been shot through the heart.

Why Immediate Withdrawal From Iraq Is Not a Good Idea

This is why I think immediate withdrawal is not a good idea.

BAGHDAD, Dec. 24 — The American military is holding at least four Iranians in Iraq, including men the Bush administration called senior military officials, who were seized in a pair of raids late last week aimed at people suspected of conducting attacks on Iraqi security forces, according to senior Iraqi and American officials in Baghdad and Washington.

Do you really think Iran, Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will sit idly by if we pull out? I never thought we belonged there, but the immediate withdrawal urged by Mike Moore is just plain stupid.