Yesterday, I gave you an overview of the natural hazards identified in the draft Lehigh Valley Hazard Mitigation Plan. I found the summaries of past occurrences and the threat assessments quite interesting. Today, I'm sharing portions of what are identified as man-made disasters.
Civil Disturbance / Mass Gathering: "The Lehigh Valley is home to annual events classified as mass gatherings by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. ... Most past occurrences of non-planned gatherings within the Lehigh Valley have been peaceful, with only one incident being associated with any type of violence: a large group of juveniles (30-40) were reported fighting in North Whitehall Township. ... Many civil disturbances are reflections of human behavior and responses to current events. This reality makes it virtually impossible to predict future occurrences of civil disturbance. However, it is highly likely that future instances will occur, as the First Amendment of the Constitution protects freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and the right to petition. At the same time, the possibility of a gathering of people becoming disruptive and/or violent cannot be eliminated, and law enforcement may be put in the difficult position of having to uphold the Constitution while maintaining law and order and protecting the public. Major national and global events are often catalysts for civil disturbances, and the Lehigh Valley should be particularly vigilant in the wake of such events. The likelihood of civil disturbance/mass gathering is considered ‘highly likely’ as defined in the Methodology Section."
Dam Failure: "There have been no recorded dam failures in the Lehigh Valley. However, the Lake Minsi Dam, which is categorized as a high hazard dam in Upper Mt. Bethel Township, was deemed unsafe due to limited spillway capacity. The lake was drained in 2017 for the dam to be repaired. ... . Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for dam failure events in the Lehigh Valley is considered ‘unlikely,’ as defined in the Methodology section."
Drug Overdose Crisis: "The most commonly identified drug category in toxicology reports varied for counties across Pennsylvania in 2022, and overdose deaths commonly involve more than one substance. In Lehigh County, there were 162 reported overdose deaths in 2022, and the opioid class of drugs contributed in 85.8% of these deaths.178 Troublingly, Fentanyl accounted for 95.7% of all opioid-involved overdose deaths and was specifically identified in 82.1% of all overdose deaths in Lehigh County. Non-fentanyl opioids contributed to only 3.7% of overdose deaths in Lehigh County. The second most common drug class contributing to overdose deaths in Lehigh County in 2022 was stimulants, which contributed to 59.9% of overdose deaths. For Northampton County, 67 overdose deaths were reported in 2022. The opioid class of drugs was the most common contributor to overdose deaths in Northampton County, accounting for 86.6% of all reported overdose deaths. As was the case in Lehigh County, fentanyl was the specific drug identified in virtually all opioid-related deaths in Northampton County; non-fentanyl opioids contributed to only 1.5% of overdose deaths in Northampton County. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for drug overdose events in the Lehigh Valley is considered ‘highly likely’ as defined in the Methodology Section."
Environmental Hazards / Explosion: "The region has been the location of several significant hazardous materials incidents. In 1999, a large containment vessel used to distill hazardous material ruptured, and the subsequent blast led to the deaths of 5 employees and 14 injuries. The explosion damaged numerous buildings within the industrial park as well as residential structures in the adjacent area. ... Additionally, in March of 2009, Wind Gap Borough in Northampton County was impacted by the spill of hydrogen fluoride following a motor vehicle accident. The incident took place on Route 33 just south of the borough. A truck carrying more than 33,000 pounds of chemical products rolled onto its side, closing the road for hours and forcing 5,000 people to evacuate. ... Another incident occurred in August 2011 on Interstate 78 near the Route 100 interchange. A tractor trailer involved in a collision spilled more than 7,000 gallons of motor oil on the roadway and into the nearby soil and waterways.194 This incident lasted approximately 18 hours, prompting Pennsylvania Department of Transportation to mill and resurface the roadway. In total, the initial response was able to collect just over 4,000 gallons of product, leaving almost 3,000 gallons for the state and environmental cleanup agencies to handle. ... The Lehigh Valley is also experiencing significant growth in the number of warehouses. The proliferation of warehouses is likely to lead to an increase in the volume of hazardous materials in the Lehigh Valley, and improper storage and handling of these materials can cause injuries and require an emergency response. It is recommended that warehouses maintain a detailed record of the materials which are being stored so that emergency responders can better understand what hazards may be present in the event that an emergency arises at a warehouse. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for environmental hazard/hazardous materials incidents in the Lehigh Valley is considered ‘highly likely’ as defined in the Methodology Section.
Fire (Urban / Structural): "Since 2001, nearly 2,000 structural fires in the Lehigh Valley have been reported. Please note that due to archiving processes and reporting requirements prior to 2007, databases may not be complete and do not necessarily represent every structural fire that occurred. However, using these sources represents the most accurate probability estimates possible. "
The Lehigh Valley has seen some notable fires since the turn of the century. In March of 2008, the City of Bethlehem, Northampton County reported a fire loss in a row of joined homes. The fire claimed the lives of four children, injured one child and injured four emergency workers, making the fire the second deadliest in the history of the City of Bethlehem.
"Plainfield Township experienced a catastrophic fire at an industrial site in 2011. The site provided the plastics industry with plastic, glass and metal separation and grinding services. In March of 2011, a fire was reported within the structure, which led to a five-county fire response that continued for more than 36 hours. At one point fire crews were using approximately 8,000 gallons of water per minute and special foam trucks from Lehigh Valley International Airport to extinguish the flames.203 Once extinguished, the building and all products on-site were deemed a loss, with a total cost in excess of $9 million.
"In April 2023, a massive fire broke out at a warehouse in West Easton. In addition to destroying the warehouse, the blaze also damaged several surrounding structures before firefighters were able to extinguish it. The response required hazmat crews because of the chemicals believed to be stored at the site, and the Pennsylvania Department of Environment performed air and water quality tests in the area. Despite more than 20 fire marshals from across the area being involved with the investigation, officials eventually determined that it was not safe or feasible to determine the specific cause of the fire."
"Major fires will continue to occur several times a year, particularly in dense, urban areas with aging building stock. Future occurrence of structural fire is thus “highly likely” as defined in the methodology section."
Levee Failure: There are are four USACE levees or floodwalls in the Lehigh Valley: Allentown (Sewer Treatment Plant)
Levee, Salisbury Levee, Allentown-Jordan Creek Floodwall and Bethlehem Levee System. There are no reported levee failures, and the probability of one occurring is unlikely.
Nuclear Incident: "The Limerick Generation Station and the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station are both located outside
the Lehigh Valley but maintain 50-mile ingestion exposure pathway zones that include parts of the
region. Limerick is south of the Lehigh Valley in central Montgomery County, and Susquehanna is
northeast of the region in Luzerne County. ... The Limerick and Susquehanna plants have both experienced unplanned, sudden shutdowns – also
known as scrams – of their nuclear reactors as recently as 2020. On May 3, 2020, the Susquehanna unit
1 reactor automatically shut down due to a trip of the main turbine. The reactor water level lowered to -
1 inch causing Level 3 (+13 inches) isolation. However, the operations crew subsequently maintained
reactor water level at the normal operating band, and neither the Emergency Core Cooling System nor
Reactor Core Isolation Cooling were necessary.
218 This event was classified as a non-emergency by the
NRC.
On November 13, 2020, the Limerick unit 1 reactor automatically shut down due to a valid Reactor High
Pressure signal (1096psig). The NRC determined that the closure of the 1B Inboard Main Steam Isolation
Valve (MSIV) caused the pressure within the reactor to rise until it exceeded the Reactor Protection
System setpoint of 1096psig. Once the setpoint was exceeded automatic systems shut down the reactor,
and the pressure was normalized via steam bypass valves. Like the scram at the Susquehanna plant in
the same year, the 2020 scram at Limerick was classified as a non-emergency by the NRC. Despite the
classification of non-emergency, both events were reported to NRC Resident Inspectors, Berks, Chester,
and Montgomery Counties, as well as the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency."
"Due to the extreme rarity of nuclear emergencies in the United States and the complexity of safety
regulations guiding the actions of nuclear facilities, the probability of occurrence for a nuclear incident
which impacts the Lehigh Valley is ‘unlikely’."
Structural Collapse: "Historical records for the Lehigh Valley, submitted annually to the state, note two incidents of structural
collapse, not generated as a cascading impact from a separate incident, over the past two decades. In
2006, while constructing a new apartment building in Upper Macungie Township, Lehigh County
construction crews reported a catastrophic failure of the structure. No injuries resulted from this incident. In 2007, a ceiling within a commercial building in Bangor Borough, Northampton County failed,
temporarily trapping four individuals.
In addition to stand-alone incidents, some notable structural failures based upon other incidents have
caused significant damage within the Lehigh Valley. "
Lehigh County has been home to notable structural
collapses suspected of being generated from incidents such as water main breaks or sinkholes. The most
notable of these incidents happened in 1994 in the City of Allentown. A commercial structure valued at
more than $9 million was impacted by a large sinkhole, which caused the failure of systems within the
structure. Following unsuccessful mitigation attempts, the structure was imploded to minimize any
additional damage to surrounding structures.
Similar to Lehigh County, Northampton County has also been impacted by structural collapses based
upon cascading events. In 2008, a large sinkhole at an apartment complex in Hanover Township forced
the evacuation of more than 40 residents. The incident caused the failure of load bearing walls within
the structures, ultimately leading to the demolition of the two buildings. In addition, the City of Easton
evacuated an apartment complex in 2004 following the development of a large sinkhole. The structure
sustained partial failure of load bearing elements forcing the relocation of 25 residents. Additional
information on land subsidence (sinkhole) frequency can be found in the Subsidence / Sinkhole profile.
"On January 28, 2022, the 447-foot-long Fern Hollow Bridge in Allegheny County fell approximately 100
feet into the ravine below. At the time of its collapse, there were four passenger vehicles and a bus on
the bridge, and 10 people were injured in the collapse. ... The Philip J. Fahy Memorial Bridge in the City of Bethlehem uses a rigid K frame
design similar to what was used for the Fern Hollow Bridge. The similarity of the design led PennDOT to
review the structural adequacy of the Philip J. Fahy Memorial Bridge, along with 4 other bridges in
Pennsylvania, immediately after the collapse of the Fern Hollow Bridge. PennDOT assessed the condition
of the bridges as “fair” and did not require posting weight restrictions. However, the cause of the Fern
Hollow Bridge Collapse has not been officially determined, and officials in the Lehigh Valley should
watch for any updates from the NTSB which may be relevant to the Philip J. Fahy Memorial Bridge.
"Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational
viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for structural collapse events in the Lehigh Valley is considered
‘possible’ as defined in the Methodology Section."
Terrorism: Suspected Terrorism in Lehigh Valley between 2018-2023:
"Prediction of terrorist attacks is
almost impossible because terrorism is a result of human factors. As long as fringe groups maintain
radically different ideas than that of the government or general population, terrorism is a possibility."
Transportation Crash: "According to the most recent report, there were 38,146 documented
crashes within the Lehigh Valley between 2018 and 2022. The DOT report also documents 238 fatalities
which occurred as a result of these crashes. It is notable that in 2020 both counties recorded the lowest
yearly crash totals during the 2018–2022 time frame, and this could be a reflection of lower overall
traffic following the outbreak of COVID-19. Conversely, the yearly fatalities because of crashes do not
follow the same trend, and both counties experienced an increase in the number of crash fatalities from
2019 to 2020. ... Population growth and development trends in the Lehigh Valley will likely result in a corresponding
increase of the risk of transportation crashes as more people and goods move within and through the
area. If the transportation crash statistics recorded between 2018 and 2022 are representative of near future conditions, the Lehigh Valley can anticipate an average of 7,629 automobile crashes and 48
automobile crash fatalities per year."
Utility Interruption: "The Lehigh Valley suffered a significant utility interruption in October 2011, when an early snowstorm
dropped between six and ten inches of wet snow on trees that still had leaves on them, causing historic
numbers of tree limbs and wires down, resulting in massive power outages. PPL and FirstEnergy, the two
largest electric utility companies in the Lehigh Valley, reported over 109,000 customers without power
for up to a week. Regional shelters and warming stations were opened throughout the Lehigh Valley to
care for people without power.
"In March 2018, a series of major nor’easters created widespread power outages across much of the U.S.
Northeast, including the Lehigh Valley. The initial storm impacted Lehigh Valley on the morning of
March 2, and by the evening of the same day there were at least 35,000 customers without power in the region.248 By the end of the next day, that number was reported to be closer to 100,000. This storm
was only the first of four nor’easters to hit the Lehigh Valley that month, and reports of power outages
accompanied each subsequent event.
"[S]everal recent and high-profile examples have highlighted the vulnerability of utility infrastructure to
these attacks. Based on historical reports from 911 dispatch, small outages are likely to continue and
should be considered “highly likely”".
Gas / Liquified Pipelines: "In February 2011, the City of Allentown was impacted by a catastrophic failure of a large gas main under
a row of homes in the 500 Block of North 13th Street. The explosion killed five people and destroyed six
homes. The incident forced the evacuation of hundreds of residential and commercial properties,
including a senior living complex on the adjoining block. Since that incident, the Lehigh Valley has been
impacted by numerous failures of infrastructure causing smaller explosions with less impact.
PHMSA records of pipeline incidents since 2003 lists 13 separate events which occurred in the Lehigh
Valley, all within Lehigh County. ... . The PHMSA records
show no pipeline incidents occurring in Northampton County since 2003.
"According to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, there are multiple pipelines
under development which will transit the Lehigh Valley. Additionally, data from the U.S. Department
of Transportation (DOT) reveals that 63,311 miles of pipeline was constructed across the U.S. in 2022,
which is the most in a single year since DOT began tracking this in 2006. It is also a 70% increase from
the total pipeline mileage constructed in 2021 (45,532 miles).
The County EMS is predicting one incident every 18 months.
Cyber-Terrorism (and cyber-attacks): "One of largest cyber-attacks targeting an entity within the Lehigh Valley was detected in Allentown on
February 15, 2018. Unfortunately, the attack was well underway by the time it was discovered, and
many devices used by the Allentown city government had already been infected by a serious computer
virus known as Emotet. The virus stole credentials of city workers and severely disrupted government
functions, as well as other services which used information technology assets belonging to Allentown.
Among other things, the finance department of Allentown could not complete any external banking
transactions, video surveillance networks were down, and local law enforcement was unable to access
databases controlled by the Pennsylvania State Police. It took Allentown nearly two weeks to restore
some of the impacted services, and the cost to remove the virus from Allentown systems was
approximately $1 million.268 Unfortunately, the ease with which the perpetrators of these attacks can
remain anonymous makes it difficult to determine the motivation behind this attack. However, the
circumstances of the attack seem to indicate that its purpose was disruption rather than personal gain,
and this is a characteristic of cyber-terrorism.
"Another serious incident occurred in February 2023, when the Lehigh Valley Health Network was
targeted by an advanced cyber-attack. In this instance, malicious software (malware) named “BlackCat”
obtained access to highly personal and sensitive information, and the group behind the attack
threatened to publish this information unless a ransom was paid. The attack was traced back to a
nefarious cyber group associated with Russia, and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
has stated that the BlackCat attack is a new but “exceptionally capable” malware.
269 While the attack
appears to have been motivated by personal gain, the nature of the attack is alarming and exemplifies
some of the difficulties associated with preventing cyber-attacks and cyber-terrorism. First, it can be
exceptionally difficult to stop or hold accountable the perpetrators of such attacks when they originate
from outside of the U.S. Second, the possibility of foreign governments providing implicit or explicit
support for malicious cyber-activity may significantly increase the sophistication of attacks.
"Societal trends and the increasing complexity and interconnectivity of technology create an
environment where the frequency of cyber-attacks and cyber-terrorism risks are likely to continue to
rise. Concern about cyber-terrorism throughout the U.S. is growing as its impacts could have potentially crippling effects. Although advancements in defenses against these attacks are continuously being
made, the possibility of cyber-attacks, some of which may constitute cyber-terrorism, will continue to
remain a significant risk within the Lehigh Valley."
