Covid-19 Three Times More Lethal Than Common Flu in Greater Lehigh Valley

Someone smarter than me did some numbers crunching if Sunday's coronavirus numbers as they appear on the state Department of Health and CDC websites. One out of 262 persons in the greater Lehigh Valley area has contracted Covid-19 thus far, and so far, one out of 13,662 people has died. The common flu kills 2 out of every 100,000 people, according to CDC. Covid-19 appears to be killing 7.32 per 100,000 here in the Lehigh Valley. This makes it a little more than three times as lethal as the common flu. Dr. Anthony Fauci has said Covid-19 is 10 times more lethal than the common flu, but it remains to be seen whether this coronavirus is actually as deadly as projected.

What's more interesting is an examination of the data from the New York and New Jersey The total population is around 21 million. Covid-19 has hit that dense population hard, infecting 825 people per 100,000. It has killed 6.28 per 100,000, making it about three times as lethal as the common flu.

In the rest of the country, the infection (97 out of 100,000) and mortality rates (3 out of 100,000) are much lower. This could mean things are about to get worse in those areas. It could also mean that, because the population is less dense, fewer people will get ill.

Time will tell. At this moment, however, the data show different stories for the New York area and the rest of the country. In New York, the disease is more prevalent and more fatal. Outside the northeast, it is much less prevalent.

If you are unfortunate enough to contract either the flu or Covid-19, the risk of contracting pneumonia increases. Here's an interesting piece of information. Fifteen out of 100,000 people who die every year do so from a flu-pneumonia combination. It has always been one of the top ten causes of death here in the US.

No one has ever shut down the economy over this concern.

I believe it's important to listen to public health officials and err on the side of listening to them. But just as the military should play no role in actual decisions concerning foreign policy, public health official should have no role in deciding our actual domestic policy.

That's why we have elections.

Well, at least we once did.

Interestingly, it appears that a group of experts and government officials are finally urging the Iceland approach, one which I have repeatedly advocated. As explained in The Washington Post, it "relies on the three pillars of disease control: Ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn’t have to stay in permanent lockdown."

Instead of limiting tests to those who are already at death's door, a concerted effort should be made to test everyone as quickly as possible. Thus far, just one per cent of Pa. has been tested.

Below is the latest coronavirus curve from Pennlive. It clearly demonstrates that the number of new cases is dropping every day.

Penn Medicine Opens Covid-19 Testing Site For Anyone With Symptoms

The most important weapon against Covid-19, and one this country has failed to use, is the widespread and rapid use of testing. This approach has been successful in Iceland, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Penn Medicine has opened a testing site for anyone with symptoms. No referral needed. No charge. Details here.

The Coronavirus Curve in Pa

Business shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders have been issues by Governor Tom Wolf to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of Covid-19, but how are we doing? Not so good. Pennlive.com has been keeping track of the daily state increase in known coronavirus cases. It appears that these draconian measures have had little or no effect, although I suppose the argument could be made that the spike would be far greater without them.

Other countries have approached this problem differently, and with greater success. Instead of lockdowns, Iceland is engaged in aggressive testing, contact tracing and strict quarantines of those who are infected. This is also the approach employed in South Korea, which has been very successful in fighting this pandemic despite being located close to China, where the virus originated.

Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, who learned from the SARS crisis in 2003, were ready for this pandemic. In addition to the Iceland approach, these countries were quick to impose travel restrictions with foreign countries and to screen those who returned.

In contrast to those countries that have been successful, the biggest error in the US appears to be its failure to pursue rigorous testing. This is mostly the result of bureaucratic bungling. The CDC produced flawed test kits. The FDA was slow to approve new testing. Even now, testing is limited.

Covid-19: Both National and State Government Have Failed; Local Government Trying

As of noon on April 2, the state Department of Health reports 378 Covid-19 cases in Northampton County, with 9 deaths. In Lehigh County, there are 479 cases but just 5 deaths. In the Lehigh Valley, the current mortality rate is 1.6%. Statewide, the mortality rate is 1.3%. Nationwide, CDC reports a 2.1% fatality rate as of yesterday.

This is about ten times the fatality rate of seasonal flu, but does not include people who were never tested for Covid-19 and who had the virus but were asymptomatic. According to aggressive testing in Iceland, as much as 50% of those with Covid-19 never know it. If this is corroborated by additional testing, this would mean the fatality rate is actually much lower, but still far more lethal than seasonal flu.

In addition to testing at least 13% of its population thus far, Iceland also does contact tracing with all persons who have been in contact with a positive result. It also employs a strict quarantine on those infected. As a result, it has been able to avoid the lockdowns and business closures that have been prevalent in much of Europe as well as the United States. What Iceland does is similar to the practice employed in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a public health official at the spearhead of the virus crisis, has conceded CDC's "failure" to develop and implement a test.

This failure has devastated the economy and the normal functioning of government. State Governors like Tom Wolf are imposing business shutdowns that have been unevenly enforced and with no consideration to the millions who have been negatively impacted. Yesterday, it was impossible to access the state benefits site for food stamps and cash assistance, while the unemployment site has crashed repeatedly.

Local government has been more responsive. Many municipalities, with some glaring exceptions, have extended tax deadlines and are still trying to serve their communities.

Most recently, Northampton County's Judge Craig Dally still convened Drug Court at a time when those in early recovery are tempted to stray. The County Government has dedicated a floor at its nursing home as an isolation unit. It has gathered and distributed personal protective equipment to numerous first responders. All inmates have been moved from the Work Release facility in West Easton to a building on S. Union Street in Easton. West Easton's Center for low-risk offenders is being prepared in case Northampton County requires a staging area or field hospital as it responds to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The West Easton facility has an open barracks set up. If any inmate tests positive or showed symptom of Covid-19, the entire facility would have to be quarantined. At the Community Corrections facility on S. Union Street, inmates can be housed in smaller groups and will be closer to medical resources in the Northampton County Prison.

The Work Release Facility in West Easton has a 120 bed capacity, a large classroom for briefings and a kitchen which can be used to warm food. It can be used for medical needs or as a quarantine site.

Aegrescit Medendo - The Covid-19 Cure is Worse Than the Disease

Several state governors, including our own Chicken Little, have paralyzed their state's economies. It's for our own good, they say. Some communities are being ordered to shelter-in-place. That's for our own good, too. Media outlets bray away at the sudden spike in Covid-19 cases, totally oblivious to the reality that this sudden increase is almost certainly because more testing is available now than there was even a week ago. The nation sits paralyzed in their living rooms, guarding stashes of toilet paper and bottled water, waiting for the end. But we are over-reacting and have created a dangerous precedent for anyone who actually cares about individual liberty or our economy. Let me explain why.

Covid-19 is a brand new virus. It only reared its ugly head in December. So little is known about it. The mortality rate - 10 times that of the common flu - is based on known cases. But what about those who had it and never knew it? For all that you or I know, we could have had this disease. It is illogical and, dare I say, unscientific, to draw conclusions based on insufficient information.

Iceland has been doing extensive testing, proportionately more than any other country. As of March 21, the results of 5,571 tests yielded just 48 positive results (0.86%), meaning the prevalence of the virus is modest. Nearly half of those infected had no symptoms. This is corroborated by a smaller study of 565 Japanese, in which about 31% of those who had Covid-19 never knew it. So what the science tells us, and I agree we should give science priority over histrionics, is that this virus only infects a small segment of the population, and a large proportion of those who get it never get sick.

Without question, some people become seriously ill. A few die. It has to be taken seriously. But we are over-reacting and this matter has become sensationalized. Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has been spearheading the national response to this pandemic, told CNN he likes to be accused of over-reacting because that means he's doing it right. But he's failed to consider the medical maxim aegrescit medendo, i.e. the cure just might be worse than the disease.

Bret Stephens, a columnist for The New York Times, put it best: "Sooner or later, people will figure out that it is not sustainable to keep tens of millions of people in lockdown; or use population-wide edicts rather than measures designed to protect the most vulnerable; or expect the federal government to keep a $21 trillion economy afloat; or throw millions of people out of work and ask them to subsist on a $1,200 check."

Can we all return to earth already?

Congressman Dent Favors "Responsible Drawdown" in Iraq

LVRamblings: How do you see America responsibly handling the War in Iraq and America's growing debt at the same time? What condition are we going to leave the country in for our children? This question is posed by one of your supporters.

Congressman Dent: "It's a reasonable question. As we all know, the war began before I arrived in Congress. I was briefed recently in the situation room on the Status of Forces Agreement. The Status of Forces Agreement is something that I urged well over a year ago. There are over 70 Status of Forces Agreements around the world. We have them in Germany, Korea, Iceland. They state the terms and conditions under which our troops maintain a presence. We have one in the Philippines. They don't want us to be there so we're gone. The same thing is happening in Iraq. We are very close to initialling a Status of Forces Agreement.

"I believe you will see a significant drawdown of our troops, based on conditions on the ground, and that is a good thing. The Iraqi government has talked about time horizons and that is being discussed as part of a Status of Forces Agreement that will be flexible. The good thing about that is that the Iraqi government now feels that they have enough control of the security situation and political situation to basically encourage a lessening of our combatant presence. That is a good thing. That is a very good thing.

"Remember, if the state of Iraq fails, the people who are negotiating this Agreement will be the first ones who will be lined up against a wall and shot. And they know that.

"The problem with Congress on Iraq is we've always talked about congressionally legislated timelines. If we had adopted the timelines that Siobhan Bennett had advocated, she would have in effect have legislated defeat."

LVRamblings: And possibly genocide?

Congressman Dent: "And possibly genocide and unspeakable atrocities. Had we done what we wanted to do, we would be having a very different conversation today about a Status of Forces agreement and a time horizon agreed to by both governments. This is being driven by the Iraqis and that's a good thing. it means the security situation has improved as has the political situation. That is encouraging.

"The problem in Congress is that the debate has always been very narrow. We've been debating very narrow aspects. Pro-surge or anti-surge. Timelines. Mandatory rest periods. By the way, if we had done what Bennett wanted to do on the rest period, she would have in effect extended the deployment of troops currently serving in Iraq and treated people serving in Iraq differently than people serving in Afghanistan. That's what she wanted to do. She would have extended their deployments because if you couldn't move people in, you wouldn't be able to move people out. She would have extended them."

LVRamblings: You mean, my daughter would have stayed there a little longer?

Congressman Dent: "Yes, that is correct. If we had done it the way Bennett wanted to do it, your daughter would be staying there longer. She would have had a much longer deployment than she would have liked.

"The goal is to go to one year rest for one year deployment, but the way she proposed it . . .

LVRamblings: It would have been inequitable . . .

Congressman Dent: "It would have been inequitable and it would have extended deployment of our men and women serving in Iraq. It would have been a fiasco.

"By the way, I was one of the guys - there were a handful of us on both sides of the aisle - who always, when these Iraq votes came up, said we have this bi-partisan document, the Iraq Study Group. We wanted to present it as a comprehensive policy. The truth is, the Bush administration wasn't thrilled about it, Speaker Pelosi didn't like it, Speaker Pelosi refused to allow it to be considered. I went to the Rules Committee on two separate occasions, trying to present this to the whole House for a vote. They said No. I think that was in February of 2007. I went back again three months later - I think it was in the summer of 2007 - and they told me I should have brought it up months ago. I said, well I did, but you said no then. Remember? They said No."

LVRamblings: I think I remember blogging about that . . .

Congressman Dent: "But that';s the way i tried to work. Sestak was there . . ."

LVRamblings: Sestak is a Democratic Congressman . . .

Congressman Dent: "He was there. He sat in the Rules meeting with me . . ."

LVRamblings: He is the first one to announce candidly that "immediate withdrawal" means 18 to 24 months . . . that there's no way you can withdraw troops any quicker without exposing them to danger . . .

Congressman Dent: "And Joe Sestak, who served in the Clinton administration, said it took six months to move 10,000 people out of Somalia. You can't move 160,000 people out of Iraq in six months. It's just impossible."

"That's the problem with Siobhan Bennett's timelines. They would have legislated defeat, would have led to enormous safety problems for our troops, many of whom would have died in that kind of ignominious retreat. That's really what she would have prescribed. I think that's the reality.

"I've always voted to fund our troops. I believe Senator McCain always has, and Senator Obama has on most occasions. There's one occasion when he did not. But Siobham does not support funding our troops. She has been in opposition to any funds going to our troops, who are in harm's way.

"All she ever wanted to do is establish operational controls on our troops. I've been to Afghanistan, I've been to Iraq. What really disturbs me about Bennett's position is what I see with NATO allies who impose very strict operational controls on their troops. I've seen this. That puts very heavy pressure on other NATO forces, especially us, to do what they are unable to do because of the controls placed on them. That's what Siobhan wants to do to our troops and commanders in Iraq - place operational controls so they cannot do what they need to do.

"It's one of the challenges and this gets back to the Russia-Georgia issue. I am very concerned about NATO. I believe in NATO, but NATO is not a club. It is a collective defense organization. If this collective defense organization fails, we'll all be the worse for it. So we have to be very careful when we talk about admitting new nations into NATO, whether it be Georgia and that obligates us to their . . ."

LVRamblings: It obligates us to defend them . . .

Congressman Dent: "That's correct. Or the Ukraine or whoever.

"We have to have a very sober conversation about what membership means. Our nation spends nearly 4% of its GDP on defense. Many of our good friends in Europe spend about 1%. So this defense obligation will fall most heavily on The United States of America. So we have to think about this. We have to consider or revisit the membership criterion of NATO. Maybe nations should be required to invest more in their own security. This is an American guarantee for their defense. At the end of the day, we are providing so much of the leadership in NATO, whether it be in Afghanistan or Europe, that this is something we have to think very hard about.

"Last night, I wrote up my feelings about Iraq. You can have this if you want."

LVRamblings: Sure, I'll load it up on my blog. (Congressman Dent's condensed views about Iraq are portrayed in the blog below).