Tuesday, November 06, 2012

How's The Turnout? Who Are Your Picks?

The lower the turnout, the more likely it is that Obama's bid for re-election will fail. So what is the turnout like in your polling district? Fill us all in. List where you voted, whether there was a wait and if you encountered any problems.

If you want to make any last-minute pitches for the candidate of your choice, now's your chance.

I'll report on my own experience after I vote. I plan on voting for Romney, Smith (U.S. Senate), Cartwright (U.S. Congress), Kane (Att'y General), McCord (Pa. Treasurer), Summers (Auditor General) and Capozzolo (state house). That's two Republicans, four Democrats and one Libertarian.

I explained my Romney vote yesterday. Since Casey seems to have fallen off the Planet Earth, I'll vote for Smith. Cartwright brings passion and a real concern for the environment to Congress. Kane will be an excellent check on a Republican state government. McCord has performed well as state treasurer. I'm going with the Libertarian in the Auditor General race because the two mainstream party candidates are simultaneously running fr their state house seats. Joe Emrick has never responded to a single email, while Joe Capozzolo is always accessible.

Updated 10:55 AM: Early turnout appears to be strong in the LV. This likely bodes well for Obama.

Updated 11:53 AM: "Turn out is below average in Allentown way above in the burbs."

Updated 1:31 PM: "According to election judges in south side [Allentown] it's not 08 turn out. Burbs Upper Saucon 3 1 hour 20 min wait to vote."

Updated 1:35 PM: Spotted at Butztown Post Office. Does Obama looks good in a mustache?  Of course this is nonsense from the Larouche crowd, and will likely give Obama a few votes.

Updated 2:10 PM: I am voter #429 at my precinct in Nazareth. No waiting. Elections officials there tell me turn out is heavy, but not at the level it was four years ago.

Updated 4:15 PM: Mike Fleck called to say that, as of 2 PM, turnoput was at 50% its level in 2008. If this holds, turnout will be at the same level it was in 2008, or very close. A friend trying to vote in Forks around 2 PM had to leave, as cars were lined up on Sullivan Trail.

Updated 4:40 PM: Voting in West Easton is expected to be at the 2008 level.

Updated 5:35 PM: In a mock election at Bethlehem's Middle School, students in every grade voted for ... Obama.

Updated 7:50 PM: Poor Abigael is crying because she's tired of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Ten more minutes, Abi!


Updated 7:51 PM: Two Hour Wait at Forks Lutheran Church! - Although other polling places in Forks have no wait, everything seems to be bunched up at the Lutheran Church, where voters in line are being told, now, that they will have to wait two hours before being able to cast their ballot. I reported on this precinct at 4 PM, and it appears that County officials have been slow to respond to a problem location.

Updated 9:15 PM: At 8 PM, there was a 1.5 hour wait at a Upper Macungie precinct.

Updated 9:30 PM: Early Lehigh County (11 precincts) results Give President Obama and Senator Casey commanding leads. Even Congressional Challenger Rick Daugherty has 58% of the vote.

Updated 9:40 PM: Fox projecting Pa. for Obama and Casey, and shows a close Congressional race between Charlie Dent and Rick Daugherty.

Updated 9:45 PM: Lehigh County has results for 41 precincts, while Northampton County has none.

Updated 10:00 PM: Some Northampton County results are on their web page. Most of the results are coming in from Bethlehem and Easton.

Updated 10:30 PM: Charlie Dent appears to be pulling ahead of Daugherty. Justin Simmons, Marcia Hahn, Dave Molony and Joe Emrick appear to be on their way to victory.

107 comments:

Anonymous said...

No post from Buddy Christ today?

Romney wins PA 51-49 Smith beats Casey 52-48 Simmons wins 57-43

Anonymous said...

Obama wins PA. Obama wins nationwide with 292 electoral votes.

Suck on it baggers.

Anonymous said...

4:56 - Did Mom get up aand make you a hot toddy? and don't forget your teddy bear slippers

Anonymous said...

Romney (although he'll lose PA)
Smith (in a shocking upset)
Cartwright
Dent

It would be nice if Democrats take their defeat with dignity.

Anonymous said...

Joe Cap? Please Bernie..just because Joe E. didn't reply? Even the newspaper picked Emrick. He's also tied to Garvin. Please reconsider..

Anonymous said...

Obama wins PA and 4 more years. Casey and Cartwright in the new 17th. Dent wins easy. Romney loses close ECollege votes. Split congress and a D senate.

Anonymous said...

Marcia Hahn is toasted by Altieri. Good riddance. Dem's regain some seats at the statehouse.

Anonymous said...

Romney should win in a close race, he even has a chance in heavily Democratic Pennsylvania.

Unless one of the candidates wins by huge margin, I'm afraid we really won't know the actual winner until about 2 months later. There will be challenges and recounts. Too many reports of voter fraud already across several states.

This has been the most divisive 4 years in our nation's history. An ugly time that MUST end. Without a switch to Romney, I'm afraid the next 4 years will be even worse, our country's principles thrown out the window.

Anonymous said...

Rant..rant..rant. What voter fraud? The BIG LIE!

Anonymous said...

Long lines before 7:00 at Bushkill Elementary School. Cars out to Bushkill Center Road and into neighborhood across street. 45 minute wait. Heavy R districts.

Anonymous said...

Does Buddy Christ have any predictions???

Anonymous said...

Voter #1 from Allentown 17-1 checking in. The line at 7:00 a.m was about 20 deep at the JCC (Wards 17-1 and 17-2), a bit less than in 2008. The only excitement was an unstable poll worker who for some reason was yelling at JCC staff and voters in the lobby and acting like a loose cannon.

Anonymous said...

Pretty crowded early in Bethlehem polling places..Guess Obama will win Pa. as all Democrats do statewide...The only reason the republicans always win the House and Senate in pa. is because they gerrymandered all the seats..Either way, Smith , who is running for Senate is an extreme teabag nut case and he has no chance of winning thank God!

Anonymous said...

Voted at 7 in Allentown. Surprisingly long line, much longer wait than 2010.

Predictions:

1 - Obama wins more than 300 electoral votes (including PA), carrying Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa, possibly Florida, but too close to call. North Carolina looks like a stretch, but a good ground game could pull that off. The Democrats did register hundreds of thousands of new voters there in the last two years, so it's not a stretch.

2 - Senate: Dems 53, Republicans 45, Independents (Dems) 2. The GOP has shot themselves in the foot for the second election cycle, and 2014 isn't going to be any better.

3 - House: Republicans retain control. Margins narrow.

4 - PA Statewide: Dems sweep statewide races. Ticket-splitting will be pretty rare.

5 - Hillary Clinton wins in 2016. Democrats add 4 nominees to the Supreme Court by 2020.

Anonymous said...

Just voted. Long line of smiling people. Small group over in the corner crying. Asked a polling person who they were. She said Democrats.

NLVlogic said...

I was number 84 at 8:30am in a polling place that normally does 200. It will be a heavy turn out.

I was neutral in the AG race til Kane came out with her anti-NRA add. There is no Florida gun carry permit loophole. She convinced me to vote for her opponent.

NLVlogic said...

Anon 8:49 AM must be smoking crack!

Anonymous said...

@9:20am

Smoking crack on which points? That Republicans will keep the house? That Democrats will increase their margin in the senate? That Obama is going to win PA and the election?

I'm not exactly pulling these conclusions out of my ass.

barry o said...

anon 9:27,

well then take your head out

PippySqueek said...

Planning on going after work. But I wonder with numbers so close and with all the voting nightmares going on in NY and NJ if this will be the first presidental race that we may not have an answer as to who won until the next day?

Anonymous said...

Reibman wins County Executive Race Big today!!!

Anonymous said...

9:39 - 2000 Florida recount ring a bell?

Anonymous said...

1. Romney wins 52% to 48%; he wins 32 states; he wins 295 electoral votes; he loses PA narrowly; he wins FL easily; he wins NC in a laugher; he wins NH, OH, VA, CO. Pre-election polls skewing +10% Democrat are off by 6 points. Exit polling is equally misleading as 5-10% of Rs continue tradition of refusing to be polled; or purposefully lying in an effort to make polls unreliable.

2. Senate ends 50-50; Smith shocks Casey

3. House stays R as they gain 15 seats

4. PA state races go the way of Smith in an R sweep

5. Hillary Clinton is investigated for her role in the cover up of Benghazi; her reputation is properly soiled and she goes to work for Bill's foundation in an attempt to rehabilitate it

Bernie O'Hare said...

"just because Joe E. didn't reply? Even the newspaper picked Emrick. "

The two biggest things for me are accountability and transparency. If Joe E ignores my emails, as he has done several times, I can't consider him either. He will win, but I am voting for Joe Cap.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Buddy Christ is making no calls this race bc the Obamaphiles might accuse him of playing favorites. He's in Vegas.

Anonymous said...

Obama warned against going to Vegas in these tough times. Buddy's insensitive.

Anonymous said...

9th district. 8am.
light turn out.
Machines are poorly programmed.
If you were to pick a straight ticket, and then enter a candidates name below, the thing makes you start over....
It easily could just automatically put the checks in front of the names - too.

NLVlogic said...

I'm not exactly pulling these conclusions out of my ass.

First off, I'm not exactly anon. My well known moniker was included.

The end result for each point in your analysis is a stronger democrat party. I don't see it.

You have the weakest top ticket since Jimmy Carter, and by most democrat accounts, the economy is worse than it was then, also like then gas prices have shot up, and you have an embassy scandal. The parallels are quite strong. I dont see a stronger democrat party coming out of this election.

Bernie O'Hare said...

That does not sound good. Is this LC or NC?

Bernie O'Hare said...

NLV, I guess you and I canceled each other out on Kane.

Anonymous said...

7:25
Right ------- more divisive than the Civil War.
This is a Tea Bagger clown site.

NLVlogic said...

Oh, and we had the savings and loan scandal with bank bailouts too! Anyone remember the Resolution Trust Co?

NLVlogic said...

BO

Actually, To follow up with you I think this was our "hobson's choice" not the Presidential race

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

Since the last four years have felt like the late 1970s, tonight will be 1980.

I think Casey gets dismantled. Nobody knows or cares who he is outside Scranton.

Anonymous said...

The Voting Location at the LEHIGH COUNTY CENTER AT 7 TH AND HAMILTON STS NEVER POSTED THE NO PARKING SIGNS FOR VOTERS WHEN THEY OPENED AT 7:00 A.M.

When I went down at 10:00 A.M. THERE WERE NO PARKING SPACES FOR VOTERS OR HANDICAPPED VOTERS.

I mentioned this and they quickly went out to post the signs THREE HOURS AFTER THEY OPENED. ALL THE SPACES ARE TAKEN BY SHOPPERS ETC

Anonymous said...
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Bernie O'Hare said...

I have deleted about six childish comments posted by Rolf Oeler, as well as some equally childish comments by his tormenter. Now he posts this. I will forward this comment to the Secret Service, Mr. Oeler. You can tell them you were kidding.

ironpigpen said...
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ironpigpen said...
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Anonymous said...

I thought Rolf was coming over later Bernie.

Well then,this blog is about to get some REAL attention. Certainly if you don't alert the Secret Service some reader will do their civic duty. This is not a laughing matter.

Anonymous said...

Obama will grab an early lead until Republicans get out of work.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Well then,this blog is about to get some REAL attention. Certainly if you don't alert the Secret Service some reader will do their civic duty. This is not a laughing matter."

The Secret Service has been alerted, has printed out the threatening remarks, and will take it from here. I have been asked to delete anything Rolf Oeler posts on this site, and will do so.

Anonymous said...

Bernie, Voting update from Murrells inlet South Carolina.As of 0915 hrs. there were 7 people in line.I had my drivers license and voter's registration card in hand but no one looked at them. I went to the terminal and when I got to the new 7 th. Congressional District seat Ms. Gloria Tinubu was on the Democratic ticket and also on the Working Families Party ticket.I made a few calls and being on the ballot twice for the same office is legal. I don't know if this new Congressional District came from Pennsylvania or not,but if it did thank you for the additional seat. Thanks, Bill Sherman

Anonymous said...

Honestly if you get this upset and bunged up over politics and who is or isnt the President, you clearly need to evaluate yourself. Obama, Romney, Rep or Dem, they all serve themselves. To wish death upon any of them however reflects poorly on you and your soul.

Scott

Anonymous said...

You get credit for being accountable this time when the stakes suddenly became very real.

I feel badly for your friend. He is clearly having a hard time of it. I trust friends and family will reach out to him and I sincerely wish him well.

Anonymous said...

They're at it again in Philthy.

New Black Panther in his laughable paramilitary garb at the polls, R poll watchers booted (judge ordering them back in, apparently) a pro-Obama mural on the wall directly behind voting machines at a school.

Good stuff, eh lefties? Anything for the win, eh lefties? Anything to make you feel better about your miserable selves, eh lefties?

No matter who wins, you'll still be the outplayed who need to cheat, lie, steal and demagogue to win. And those you wish to punish will go unpunished, and still find a way to thrive and will continue to be the object of your jealous rage.

-Clem


Bernie O'Hare said...

Clem, Saw the news accounts. My guess is that Philly is going to be heavy pro-Obama. If anything, the appearance of Black Panthers at polling places might actually deter Obama voters. Doesn't seem to make much sense.

Anonymous said...

Have to disagree. Voters sticking with Obama are rabid and intense haters. The Panther will be a beacon to them.

-mwe

Anonymous said...

Will Democrats vote in the same numbers with the same intensity as 2008?

No way; not even close, according to early voting states.

Will Republicans vote in the same numbers and with the same lack of intensity they did in 2008?

No way; not even close according to early voting states.

President Mitt Romney. Never would've guessed it four years ago.

Anonymous said...

There are larger issues at stake my friends; much larger:

http://imgur.com/gallery/JscDS

Bernie O'Hare said...

Very good!!!

Anonymous said...

Having gone door to door in Allentown last night with other volunteers, I can tell you that the Democrat Party efforts were nearly invisible. In 2008 there were busloads of Acorn workers going door to door and hundreds of college students from NJ, NY, CT and MA working in downtown as well. I'm willing to bet the turnout in Allentown will be much lower than in 2008.

Heck, a good Republican candidate might have been able to make a run at the 132nd PA House District (Jennifer Mann's former district)in this race.

Anonymous said...

Voted in Allentown 17th WD, 4th DT at 8 am. The line to vote was 45 min. long. It may just be that Romney wins PA and loses OH.

Anonymous said...

I've been working the poll in Alburtis - the bellweather precinct for Lehigh County :-). Turnout here was 73% in 2008 and Obama won it by 142 votes (591 to 449) in 2004 turnout was 63% and Kerry won it by 6 votes (452 to 446).

As of 12:30 today, 440 votes had been cast which puts the precinct on course to do better than 2004 but less than 2008 - my guess is somewhere around 65%.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

more divisive than disco even.

i love the brain power on this site,

it keeps me coming back.

NLVlogic said...

Since the last four years have felt like the late 1970s, tonight will be 1980.

Not quite. Romney is no Reagan, but I do remember how vicious the slander against Reagan was. Do you remember the "Ronbo" posters with Reagan's head pasted over Rambos clearly telling us that Ronald would start WWIII. How wrong was that? Same spin, different day. I dont think the public will buy it this time.

Anonymous said...

Is that the president with a Hitler mustache sir. Have you no shame or honor. My father and many uncles fought in Europe.
You are a disgrace.

I am a republican sir. You shame all Americans.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Give me a break. I did not place that poster outside the Butztown Post Office. I am noting that it is there. It's called reporting. Hiding this from public scrutiny would be called disinformation, which is one of your specialties.

Anonymous said...

Good afternoon, Mr. O'Hare:

We're neighbors. I voted at St. John's UCC Church in Nazareth at about 10 am. Very easy, a few people in front of me (mostly neighbors!), but everything moved right along. No problems and I always love the bake sale the ladies have going!

I really can't make a prediction, too many variables, such as the NBPP voter intimidation (once again!) and barring of republican election officials in Philly. Only time will tell. It certainly would be lovely, though, if more people strove to be members of a civil society and bit their tongues instead of spilling vitriol.

Elyssia Mathias

Anonymous said...

No line at all in Upper Mac this morning at 8:20 AM. Easy Peasy!!

Mark Baker said...

BO,

You must laugh yourself to sleep every night after reading the comments on your blog. There are many more wackos than even my warped mind would think.

Lighthouse said...

No problem voting in Bethlehem Twp even with the ID non-sense. We always have very efficient poll workers in my precinct.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Elyssia, That bake sale is always something. The smell always makes me hungry. Thanks for your report.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Mark Baker, You have no idea how many childish comments I have had to delete.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Lighthouse, Thanks for the report from efficient BT.

Anonymous said...

Like Republicans took their defeat in 2000 with dignity?? Thank you Conservative five justices on the Supreme Court.

Give me a break!

Anonymous said...

Bushkill Tp, Bushkill Ctr. District:

1,000th voter at 3:00 PM.

2008 turnout was 1,514.

Big crush traditionally starts around 4:30.

This district will see slightly higher turnout than 2008, when McCain carried district by 10 points. Romney is likely doing very well in the suburbs.

Anonymous said...

Bushkill Tp. is also very efficient. One lady is a bit slow, but painstakingly accurate. There'll be no voter fraud with this group in charge.

Anonymous said...

Remember the Saving and Loan debacles of the mid 1980's. One of those bailed out was Neil Bush, brother of the President.

My my how we forget the things we want to forget.

The new Teabagger Testament.

Anonymous said...

TEA Party. Like in Taxed Enough Already? Not a bad sentiment in my mind. Something ALL taxpayers can agree on.

My Lower Saucon polling place had no line at 1:30pm, but heard an official say this has been heavier than normal so far.

NLVlogic said...

One of those bailed out was Neil Bush, brother of the President.


I'll raise your Neil Bush and Silverado Savings with Jon Corzine's missing 1.5 billion

By their own admission, Corzine is the Administration's smartest guy they know!

Anonymous said...

Their are smart crooks and stupid crooks. No one ever accussed the Bush clan of beng smart crooks.

YOu have a point.

Anonymous said...

Bethlehem City Hall at 8:45. Five minute wait. Good election official - didn't balk when I (intentionally) declined to show ID. Voted all Republican with the exception of Kane for AG and Samuelson for state rep. I think Romney wins by surprising margin.

Anonymous said...

@4:22

Plus a number of good ones that you didn't agree with.

Anonymous said...

Looking at those in line today.... many many "have nots" and "elderly" (entitlement types) simply outnumbering the typical suburban business yuppie type voter. This bodes for Obama. Obama wins tonight, mark it down now and take it to the bank. We are going to be Spain/Greece in two years.

Anonymous said...

Those elderly entitlement types. unproductive uncooperative unnecessary. tell me what they add to the economy?
Not a damn thing.

Anonymous said...

Those elderly entitlement types are like 24/7 hall walkers. Ditto for the " have not " types.

A Republican said...

Dave,

I don't think Kane is anti-gun. I think those ads were posted by NYC's Mayor Bloomberg. He is the one creating the mess about the Florida loophole. Unfortunately, she can't do anything about an independent posting ads in support of her. But her opponent was quick to jump on the support of the NRA because of Bloomberg's tricks. Too bad. I really like her as a check and balance as the AG. Because I want her to draw blood on Corbett and the whole PSU debacle.

Anonymous said...

Didn't someone mention that there wasn't any voter fraud?

Hmmmmm: http://www.examiner.com/article/fraud-some-told-they-already-voted-others-brag-about-voting-multiple-times

Anonymous said...

Voting in Allentown 16th Ward, District 2 is over 900 at 6pm. 2008 was 1198 total. Big Obama turnout with 2 hours to go.

NLVlogic said...

the whole PSU debacle

Here here! Debacle it was! I fear there is much more we do not know.

I have pix from the PSU Sex Faire, with its Orgasm Bingo, Tent of Consent and C*&^Fest. Having a daughter there at the time, it was not a safe place for students.

I'm not discounting 46 players arrested since 2002 as of 2008, the Mardi Gras melee in Philadelphia and so forth. The charges against its President may tell more!

Clean house says I

NLVlogic said...

Their are smart crooks and stupid crooks. No one ever accussed the Bush clan of beng smart crooks

Ahhh ha! We have bipartisanship! Who-da thought on LVR! Lets add McCain as one of the Keating 5! Here here! Bipartisanship is not dead!

Anonymous said...

Bethlehem District 11 @ 3PM. I was 288 out of 716 registered voters

Bernie O'Hare said...

That's incredibly high turnout.

NLVlogic said...

This was great fun. My prediction, national vote count 53 - 48 Romney, give or take 2 %, a complete swag.

Bernie O'Hare said...

My guess is Obama will pull it out.

Anonymous said...

Allentown Ward 6, District 2: Over 500 as of 7:30. 2008 total was 564.

Allentown Ward 15, District 1: Over 700 at 7pm. 2008 total was 808.

This all looks good for Obama.

Anonymous said...

I'm watching election coverage on FOX. I really don't see any slant.

Overall, I believe FOX is doing a first class job.

NLVlogic said...

My guess is Obama will pull it out

if that is the case, I will buy you a breakfast at the local dig of your choice, if you will have me.

Bernie O'Hare said...

NLV, You're on.

Anonymous said...

It's still somewhat early, but it does look like Obama will pull it out.

As a conservative Romney voter, I can see defeat. I'm disappointed, but this will give me closure. That is, America as I knew it is now done. I'll go along for the ride over the clift and hope I somehow survive regardless.

Time to "batten down the hatches" and do what I can to preserve what I have.

Anonymous said...

NBC and Fox call PA for Obama.

Lol, and you guys thought it was a "swing state."

Anonymous said...

My picks for PA turned out to be dead on.

Bernie's, not so much. Still love you, Bernie - when you err, please err on the progressive side. You might fare better.

I will accept the Republican's defeat with dignity, 6:55AM

Bernie O'Hare said...

Your picks may or may not have won. We'll never know bc you never IDed yourself, and that's OK. My picks were the candidates I thought best suited to the job, not necessarily those I thought would win. I have felt all along that Obama would win. But that does not make your pick "dead on." What will make your pick right is if Obama performs as a good President in his second term.

Anonymous said...

9:23, I hear you. For me, America as I knew it ended in 1980 - and, in my judgement, we are still reeling as a result of that grievous error in judgement.

There are huge challenges directly in front of us. Regardless of partisan divisions, we have to come together to solve them. It's time we all start looking for common ground.

Regardless, I'm riding it out too.

Anonymous said...

Ya know, it seems to have been about "what AM I getting for free, and what CAN I get for free."

Problem is, it's really NOT free. Hold your breath.

Anonymous said...

This is a National rejection of the extreme tea party.

Anonymous said...

The best man won. Time to move on!

Anonymous said...

Let's see, at 8:49am I posted the following:

"Predictions:

1 - Obama wins more than 300 electoral votes (including PA), carrying Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa, possibly Florida, but too close to call. North Carolina looks like a stretch, but a good ground game could pull that off. The Democrats did register hundreds of thousands of new voters there in the last two years, so it's not a stretch.

2 - Senate: Dems 53, Republicans 45, Independents (Dems) 2. The GOP has shot themselves in the foot for the second election cycle, and 2014 isn't going to be any better.

3 - House: Republicans retain control. Margins narrow.

4 - PA Statewide: Dems sweep statewide races. Ticket-splitting will be pretty rare.

5 - Hillary Clinton wins in 2016. Democrats add 4 nominees to the Supreme Court by 2020.

8:49 AM"

As of 3:45am, all of my predictions are correct. When Florida is finally called for Obama, my prediction for 332 Electoral Votes will be confirmed.

The only disappointment is the fact that the house, which is disgustingly gerrymandered, will remain in Republican hands.

Guy Williams said...

Much has been said over this campaign season by many local partisans. I recall Pam Varkonys warning to her fellow Republicans during the primary season and have heard nothing since. Time is right to hear her take on the campaign results. Republicans would do well to take her advice seriously.

michael molovinsky said...

guy, pam hasn't written anything pertaining to the election in at least the last two years. pam would do well to become involved before giving any advise. you must still be reading newspapers from 1998.

Anonymous said...

Pam who?

NLVlogic said...

Let's see, at 8:49am I posted the following:

Got me. Except for no. 5. No. 2 might be a 1/2 point. Incumbents from both parties re-elected to senate and house. Now post your lesson's reportedly learned. I'd like to see if this goes somewhere.