Although six Democrats had announced their candidacy as their party's nominee in the Pa. 7th Congressional District, only four have filed nomination petitions. Robert Brooks, Ryan Crosswell, Lamont McClure and Carol Obando-Derstine filed nomination petitions in Harrisburg yesterday. Candidates Lew Shupe and Aiden Gonzales failed to file and hence are ineligible as Democrats.
35 comments:
A crook, a carpet bagger, a snake oil salesman and a wild joke. RM has this win in the bag.
It's not over. But it's pretty much over. Likelihood of winning, per Kalshi Prediction Market:
Brooks 68%
McClure 19%
Crosswell 18%
Obando-Derstine 10%
It's not over. But it's pretty much over. Mr. Brooks goes to Washington. Likelihood of winning, per Kalshi Prediction Market:
Democrat 74%
Republican 22%
I am aware of Kalshi. It was brought to my attention over the weekend. I believe it reflects non-local traders betting on the Shapiro endorsement. Too easily manipulated. I bet only on the Eagles.
I'll tell you why this is nonsense. It does not have Obando-Derstine in the top three. She is the sole woman among three men. Democrats love to vote for women simply bc they are women. There is no way she does that poorly.
In the most recent county race, a woman who got no funding from the unions was the top vote getter. Another woman, who did absolutely nothing, won. So this prediction market has to be wrong.
Brooks is the one we want, down to earth did his time as a true public servant and even backed by Shapiro. McClure is a life long politician, sounds fake with his “fight like hell” rants and overall does not sound authentic to the common folks. Brooks vs Ryan m will be a close race in the fall.
Perhaps. But, Kalshi reflects those who are willing to put their dollars on the line. It's proven a much better predictor of political results than weighted polls by media outlets with agendas. Just as odds can move, so may Kalshi. But launching at 68% is a huge number for any prediction. The race is over, and you can join a large majority by betting on it. I'm a right-leaning Independent and am disappointed by the likelihood of Mackenzie getting walloped. But he was always a weak candidate.
Agreed with bernie on Kalshi. Not sure the rationale behind that market, but Obando has a clear advantage being the only woman (and only non-white person) runiing. In my view this comes down to Carol and Brooks, because no amount of money can help crosswell with the attack ads that are going to come his way
Brooks will wipe the floor with Mackenzie lol
This is ridiculous reasoning, people will vote for her just because she's a woman? She has no shot.
Of course it is ridiculous reasoning, but it is reality. Democrats tend to vote for women simply bc they are women.
Kalshi bets total less than $4,000 so the margin of error is probalby +/- 50%
I had a Dianic Witch (look it up) read the bones and she said Carol wins. Then I had a Druid priest cast the runes and he said Lamont wins. And THEN I had virgin priestess of the oracle of Delphi go into a trance and she pronounced Crosswell the One chosen by the Gods. Finally, I asked Jakie Fenstermaker at the Nazareth diner who HE thought would win and be burped and said "that fireman guy" . I asked why and his response was "Why not?" -- the most profound insight of the whole bunch.
Very low volume market. I'd put Brooks & McClure as close to even, with the other two having zero chance, if I were handicapping. But you can put very little money into this market, and change the odds drastically.
The correct interpretation of this is that RINO McKenzie's federal pension is DENIED!
The rationale is that very few people are betting on it. You can make very very little by knowing the Derstine and Crosswell have basically zero chance.
You don't think a GOP to Dem former prosecutor will play well with a district that has many suburban middle class people who watch cable news (CNN/MSNBC) that that appeals to?
Crosswell has led in fundraising two quarters in a row now, that's not nothing.
Backed by Shapiro means McClure for me. Anyone endorsed by Shapiro and/or Wild is a big no for this voter.
That's some good legwork, there, 12:53. I asked Carnac the Magnificent and when he put the card to his head he said "Name the Four Stooges" and then he opened the card that read "McClure, Brooks, Crosswell, Obando-Derstine" so that was little help. I got a few quarters so I'm going to see what Zoltar says.
Brooks has the major Dems behind him and should win. McClure has no personality and struggles to connect with people.
That's somewhat inaccurate. Crosswell appears to have the Washington Dems behind him. Brooks has Shapiro and left-leaning Dems. Obando-Derstine has women. McClure has most of the local Dems and trade unions.
You have to all hope a republican wins
I don't care what anyone else is doing, I'm writing in Bernie O'Hare for Congress. We need a man with common sense.
Agreed, met and talked with the guy several times. More integrity in his little finger than Crooksy Brooksy.
McClure's good old boy crew is dying off, finally. He had to loan himself money in order to get anywhere in thus race. Sorry, but his ilk are "been there, done that".
Brooks is endorsed by Gallego and Chris Coons, not exactly left leaning. He also has more local and union support than you let on: Allentown mayor and city controller, 25 PA house dems, 8 state senate dems, Plumbers Union 690, Sprinkler Fitters 692, Steamfitters 420, SEIU32BJ, IAFF, CWA district 2-13 workers, then he has moderate senate support in Chris Coons and Ruben Gallego. He also has Jamie Raskin's endorsement. He's assembled a coalition of local and national, left and center. He's the unity candidate for dems.
I am skeptical of anybody endorsed high up the food chain in this particular race. Invariably they will be beholden to their holders in some capacity. We have had enough deep state politics.
Hoofty, the only reason you'd say that would be to get me out of town. No such luck for you.
That's really not much union support for a guy who is a union president. He does not have support from local leaders and also has something of a reputation for being untrustworthy. This is a guy who actually was pushing McClure before he stabbed him in the back. He stiffed his in-laws the cost of the home he built. He had a substantial unpaid judgment to his mother-in-law last time I checked. And I'd really like to know more about his finances.
Nothing burger story
All terrible choices!
All candidates, eventually, will need to offer a return on any financial investment/donation given by unions or business. Favors, ask backs, bribes, indebtedness, all come around once the voting is over and choices are made. This election will be no different.
Let’s see if McCure’s opponents will unearth and replay the infamous voting machine debacle that occurred under his and Dertinger’s
Illustrious 3 million dollar deal that put Northampton County in the news across the country.
and Ironworkers Local 404, Teamsters Local 773, the Machinists, National Nurses United, and Sheet Metal Workers Local 19. He has more labor support than Lamont!
Brooks has more union support than McClure now Bernie, iron workers local 404 teamsters local 773 sheet metal workers local 19, international association of machinists, national nurses united. McClure definitely has more local elected support though.
McClure is severely disliked by employees in the government building. He dumped lots of problems on the new executive that he should’ve addressed. Thankfully there’s much better candidates to choose from.
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