A week ago today, there were a large number of upsets nationwide, with Democrats beating Republicans even in more conservative districts. I nevertheless expected that incumbent Republican Joe Emrick would defeat Democratic challenger Jeff Warren in a close race. I reached this conclusion on the unscientific basis that I saw far more Emrick campaign signs in people's yards than I did for Warren. I was unable to get Emrick's pre-election campaign finance report until yesterday but assumed that both candidates had spent roughly the same amount of money. I had around 50 mailers (yes, 50) from both candidates, and there were only slightly more from Warren.
Unofficial results show that Warren defeated Emrick with 54.09% of the vote. Aside from general disgust with Trump and the GOP agenda, I'd say that the amount of money raised by Warren certainly helped.
According to Warren's campaign finance reports, he raised $1,217,911.91 in actual and in-kind contributions. In contrast, Emrick only had $333,904.47 to spend.
Warren spent $73.03 for each of the 16,677 votes he received. Emrick spent $24.14 for each of his 13,832 votes.
Either the state Republicans thought Emrick was safe or were willing to lose him.
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