Trump's Attack on Iran's Nuclear Sites Results in Ceasefire

I would never have expected this, but President Donald Trump's attacks at Iranian nuclear sites appears to be on its way to a happy ending. Instead of activating sleeper cells or closing the Strait of Hormuz, I ran has agreed to a ceasefire. Everybody wins. Iran's nuclear dreams have been delayed a few years. Israel has seriously weakened its most belligerent adversary. Iran survives.

Here's how the nonpartisan Institute for the Study of War, which tends to be unbiased, has to say: 

US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire that will go into effect at 12:00 AM ET on June 24. Trump said that Iran would adhere to the ceasefire starting at midnight on June 24 and that Israel would join at noon on June 24. Trump said that the war would officially end at midnight on June 25. Trump congratulated Israel and Iran for “having the stamina, courage, and intelligence” to end the war. Trump announced the ceasefire five hours after Iran conducted a ballistic missile attack targeting US forces in Qatar. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that Iran agreed to a Qatar-mediated, US-proposed ceasefire.

Iran conducted a retaliatory, but largely symbolic, ballistic missile attack targeting a US airbase in Qatar on June 23. Iran launched 14 medium- and short-range ballistic missiles at the United States’ largest position in the Middle East—al Udeid Airbase—just before 1:00 PM ET. The United States and partner forces intercepted 13 missiles and “set free” one missile on a “nonthreatening” trajectory. Trump confirmed that the Iranian attack did not injure or kill any US servicemembers or Qataris and caused “hardly any damage.” Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian claimed after the attack that Iran fired one missile at al Udeid Airbase for each bomb that the United States dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21. Initial reports claimed that Iran also fired a single short-range ballistic missile targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq, but a US military official refuted that claim.

Key Takeaways:

• US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.

• Iran conducted a missile attack targeting the US al Udeid Airbase in Qatar in retaliation for the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. The attack was largely symbolic and inflicted no casualties or damage, however.

• Iranian elite, including some moderate leaders, have reportedly tried to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accept a ceasefire or sideline him entirely. It is unclear what role these individuals played in the US-announced ceasefire.

• Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Policy Majid Takht Ravanchi announced that Iran will remain a member of the NPT. Iranian officials have previously threatened to withdraw from the NPT in response to US and Israeli strikes.

• IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that the United States likely inflicted “very significant damage” in its strikes on the Fordow nuclear site. Iran may have moved some of its nuclear material to undisclosed locations beforehand, however.