Pa. 7th Congressional Race and Prediction Markets

If you look at prediction markets like Polymarket, Bob Brooks is running away with the Democratic nomination in the Pa. 7th Congressional district currently held by Ryan Mackenzie.  Based on nearly $12,000 of bets, Brooks has a 69% chance of winning while other candidates are getting trounced. Ryan Crosswell is at 23%, Lamont McClure comes in at 8% while Carol Obando-Derstine gets a scant 2%.  But this is all nonsense and I'll tell you why. 

First, these prediction markets are highly susceptible to campaign insiders who will pour money into them to create the illusion that a candidate is running away with a race. In the Pa 7th, for example, Crosswell has dipped 27%, McClure has dropped 42% and Obando-Derstine is down 47% since betting started. This is just ridiculous. There is no way that voters move that dramatically. But people associated with campaigns do. It is clear that the Brooks and Croswell campaigns have spent some of the money they raised to create a false narrative.

Second, Obando-Derstine, the only woman in this race is predicted to have just a 2% chance of winning. Anyone who follows Democratic politics should know that there are many Democrats who will crawl through barbed wire to vote for a woman precisely because she is a woman. In the last municipal NorCo Council race, one woman was top vote getter despite getting no support from the trade unions. Another woman won despite mounting no campaign and spending no money. In this climate, it is absurd to suggest that Obando-Derstine has a mere 2%.

Third, Lamont McClure, a two-term NorCo Exec and before that, a long-time member of county council, is easily the most well-known of the four candidates. Until very recently, Brooks actually supported McClure. Croswell was a Republican prosecutor who never lived in the Lehigh Valley. Obando-Derstine had no involvement with the public whatsoever and was and remains relatively unknown. The only candidate that Democrats actually might know is McClure. To suggest he's running at 8% is preposterous. 

I can see why Congress is growing concerned about prediction markets. 

On top of everything else, Brooks' chances of winning are probably declining as negative stories begin to circulate about him. I've written about the way Brooks stiffed his in-laws over land and money they provided for him to build a home. He failed to repay a dime of the money they lent him, and his mother-in-law had to sue for a $130,000 judgment that Brooks refuses to pay. I've also told you about a lawsuit recently filed by Attorney David Dunn, claiming that Brooks engaged in subterfuge and possible fraud when he supposedly conveyed his interest in marital property to his current wife, while still refusing to repay his debt. I've also reported on his failure to list his judgment when he filed his financial disclosure. He's shady. 

These negative stories have been spreading to other media outlets, including Alternet, Spotlight Pa and Lehigh Valley News. A candidate with this kind of negative attention does not rise 20% in polling, but could rise in a prediction market when his own campaign does the betting. 

It's what I'd expect from a shady person. 

When the President of the United States is an Internet Troll

"Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Gracedale Has Reduced Reliance on Agency Nurses to 57%, But Is Still Operating at a Loss

Though Northampton County's Gracedale is currently its biggest headache, nearly all of yesterday's meeting of Council's Human Services Committee was devoted to other departments. Administrator Michelle Mortin had only 15 minutes to update Council. She started by passing out a chart covering different data collected, but it was only presented to Council. As a result, I can only rely on what she stated in her description of her handout.

Gracedale staff v. Agency nurses. - According to Morton, agency hours are 57% to 43% by Gracedale staff. She stated this is a significant improvement over the 75% reliance on agency staffing one year ago. As a result, Gracedale has spent less on agency nurses. 

Hours per patient per day (PPD). - The state minimum is 3.2 hours per patient per day. Morton stated that Gracedale has consistently been above this minimum threshold since it was cited for being below this minimum on November 18, 2025 and again on January 8, 2026. 

Census remains below 520. - Morton acknowledged that its census remains below 520, which is the minimum census required to break even. She explained this is because the nursing home has been more selective with its admissions. 

Non-nursing Overtime Reduced. - Early last year, non-nursing staff were averaging 240 hours per month in OT. That has been reduced to 40 hours per month. 

Gracedale is in the red. - In January and February, Gracedale had operating losses. But she said that there is significant unpaid revenue because if takes about 300 days to get someone approved for Medicaid. Once that revenue is realized, she expects Gracedale to be in the black. 

Gracedale's residents. - She noted that 85% of the residents have psychiatric diagnoses, compared to 60% on the state and national level. She added that 17.5% are under 65.  This population has a negative impact on quality measures because of the medications that most be used. 

Gracedale's One-Star Rating. - is due to the exorcist nurse and staffing shortages. As a result of the nurse who assaulted a resident, Gracedale will be stuck at one star for a year

Department of Health Visits. - There have been seven visits from the state Department of Health so far in 2026. Aside from the staffing deficiency found on January 8, there have been no additional deficiencies.

Initiatives. - The home is currently conducting dementia training through a state grant to improve empathy and care quality. It has begun an infection detection project to reduce transfers to a hospital and improve detection in dementia residents. It has an ongoing falls reduction strategy

Donald Trump and the Pottery Barn Rule

Last night, President Donald Trump addressed the nation about the decision, along with Israel, to attack Iran. It was an address that should have been given 32 days ago. While I completely agree that this use of force is entirely justified and overdue, I find Trump's use of hyperbole ("No one's seen anything like it") to be a bit over the top. His claim that Iran's ability to project force has been decimated, but that's contradicted by the missile and drone attacks that have continued. Three weeks ago, Hegseth announced that Iran's firepower has been reduced by 90%. But those missiles and drones keep coming. Nobody has seen anything like it. On top of that, Trump has claimed we'll be out of there in two weeks or so and has incredibly asserted that the Strait of Hormuz will "open naturally." I've never seen anything like it. 

Is he out of his mind? What we have done is given Iran permission to use Hormuz both as a toll both and as a way to strangle world commerce. Trump forgets the pottery barn rule. You break it, you fix it or pay for it. He bragged about the families of fallen soldiers who told him to finish the job but apparently plans to leave without doing so.  He won't pay. We will. 

I've never seen anything like it. 

Commonwealth Court Rejects Taiba Sultana's Nomination Petition for Pa. State Senate

Yesterday, Commonwealth Court Judge Anne E. Covey rejected the nomination petition that former Easton City Council member Taiba Sultana filed for incumbent State Senator Lisa Boscola's seat. (You can see Judge Covey's Opinion below).

Objections to Sultana's nomination petition were filed by Patricia M. Hitzel (an Easton activist and regular attendee of Easton City Council, Celeste Dee, Patricia Bruno and Pamela A. Panto Wife of Easton Mayor Sal Panto. In the course of her very short political career, Sultana has managed to insult each of them. They were represented by Att'y Ray Lahoud, who grew up in Easton and was incensed by Sultana's divisive behavior as a member of Easton City Council. Sultana represented herself.

When a nomination petition is challenges, the Commonwealth Court directs the parties to meet in advance to review signatures and stipulate the status of as many as is possible. Sultana failed to respond to attempts to confer until the day before the hearing. Thus, the court had to recess the matter so the parties could discuss. When Judge Covey reconvened, she sat through 6 hours while 131 signatures were reviewed, of which 85 were clearly invalid. 

At this point, the Court was prepared to hear legal argument, and Lahoud had a good one. On both her nomination petition as well as her statement of financial interests, Sultana lists her occupation as "self-employed" but fails to state exactly how she is self-employed. Relying on Supreme Court precedent, Judge Covey concluded that Sultana's nomination petition is fatally defective. 

This Court agrees that by merely declaring that she is self-employed, without specifying the occupation in which she is self-employed, Candidate deprived electors of information the General Assembly and the Department of State deemed sufficiently material to appear at the top of each Nomination Petition page while electors apply their signatures. In Beyer, our Supreme Court proclaimed that “the statutory purpose behind the requirement [is] that Candidate supply for the benefit of electors his present occupation or profession.” Beyer, 115 A.3d at 841 (emphasis added). The effect of Candidate’s response is no different than if she had simply put employed. Accordingly, this Court concludes that Candidate’s failure to specify on the Nomination Petition the occupation in which she is self-employed had the potential to mislead electors and, thus, is a material defect.

Is this the end of the road for Sultana? Hardly. Expect to see her next year, declaring her candidacy for Easton Mayor.

Decision Rejecting Taiba Sultana's Nomination Petition for Pa State Senate by BernieOHare

"Pop Up" Voter Service Events Proposed as a Pilot in NorCo

Every election cycle, Northampton County's elections office conducts what amounts to three elections. First, mail-in balloting enables a voter to apply for and either mail in his choice for various offices or drop off his ballot at one of seven secure ballot boxes throughout the county. Second, ballot-by-demand enables a voter to appear at the elections or a satellite office, request his ballot and complete it on the spot.  Third, there's traditional in-person voting at precincts on election day. Now, elections registrar Chris Commini is proposing a fourth election. At a special meeting of the elections commission yesterday, he sought a blessing for "pop up voter service events to expand access for voters in Northampton County ahead of the 2026 primary election."

Commini said that pop-up voter services are the same as that provided with ballot-by-demand at the county or satellite offices, but at different locales. People can register to vote, complete a mail-in ballot application, receive their ballot and either drop it off or take home for review. A $40 drop box will be available and will be returned to the elections office by deputy sheriffs. These services would exist until May 12, the last day on which mail-in ballots can be requested. 

The two locations under consideration are Lafayette College and Northampton Community College. While this might make it easier for students to register and vote, it will be difficult for the elderly or handicapped to walk the rather large parking lots at Northampton Community College or to find convenient parking at Lafayette. So it's really no service to the elderly. But if the pilot program is successful in this year's primary, Commini noted that these services could be offered at numerous fairs and festivals with a more diverse audience. I'd suggest that it be offered at area nursing homes and senior housing as well. Solicitor Michael Vargo and Commini both noted that Montgomery County uses a van as a satellite office for ballot by demand at different events. 

The sole Commissioner to vote No to this proposal was Scott Hough. "I'm worried about security and I'm worried about fairness," he said. Since the pop-up event would be manned by existing staff and the mobile drop box would be transported by deputy sheriffs, it appears that this is secure. But fairness? In a primary, pop-up services that target two colleges might adversely impact more conservative Democrats. And in a general election, pop-up services that are limited to colleges would be a boon to Democrats and would hurt Republicans.  For that reason, it would be important to have locations that attract Republicans. 

On top of this concern is Murphy's Law. If something can go wrong, it will. In recent years, we've had machine failures, ballot issues and voters who have received ballots for the wrong district. I am far from confident that this is the right time and would be more comfortable with this laudable effort to increase access if we could first pull of one or two elections without too many issues. Perhaps that is never possible.  

According to Commini, NorCo would be the first county to offer pop-up voter services. Solicitor Michael Vargo and Commini both noted that Montgomery County uses a van as a satellite office for ballot by demand at different events.