A week ago today, there were a large number of upsets nationwide, with Democrats beating Republicans even in more conservative districts. I nevertheless expected that incumbent Republican Joe Emrick would defeat Democratic challenger Jeff Warren in a close race. I reached this conclusion on the unscientific basis that I saw far more Emrick campaign signs in people's yards than I did for Warren. I was unable to get Emrick's pre-election campaign finance report until yesterday but assumed that both candidates had spent roughly the same amount of money. I had around 50 mailers (yes, 50) from both candidates, and there were only slightly more from Warren.
Unofficial results show that Warren defeated Emrick with 54.09% of the vote. Aside from general disgust with Trump and the GOP agenda, I'd say that the amount of money raised by Warren certainly helped.
According to Warren's campaign finance reports, he raised $1,217,911.91 in actual and in-kind contributions. In contrast, Emrick only had $333,904.47 to spend.
Warren spent $73.03 for each of the 16,677 votes he received. Emrick spent $24.14 for each of his 13,832 votes.
Either the state Republicans thought Emrick was safe or were willing to lose him.
You can’t just glance at the numbers, a lot of that is double counted on both sides, also that’s probably not Emricks total just based off of the TV/digital spend. Maybe some late in kinds are missing? You can never get them to properly open up on the DOS site. It’s also less that the Republicans thought he was safe and more that they just didn’t have any money all around. Reform should be done but doubt it happens
ReplyDeleteThere shouldn’t be any outside money coming into local elections for either party. That’s why Warren had such a huge war chest. The sad part is Warren is a joke and will deliver nothing for his district. The only good thing is, we done have to see him at the county council meetings anymore and listen to his long winded dumbass comments. What will Koo Koo Keegan do without him.
ReplyDeleteTime for "do nothing Joe" to do nothing somewhere else. Congratulations Warren! Can't wait to see all the great things you do!!!
ReplyDeleteOutrageous amount of money for a state house race. Where did all that money come from? I bet little of it come form within the district.
ReplyDeleteAs someone who is slowly losing faith in the American political system, the fact that these guys raise a million plus for a job that pays 100k a year, that show be a huge red flag.
ReplyDeleteThe politicians are being controlled by the parties and the parties are part of whats dividing americans. The sooner people realize rooting for their party like an NFL team is the root of the problem, the sooner we can start coming together to fix our country from this corrupt political system.
The same blind "D"s that elected the floundering fish TZ voted for a drunk and a crook. different day, same result, don't research, just press the button like an obedient robot.
ReplyDeleteMoney was irrelevant. The election was a referendum on Trump. Any Democrat with a pulse in a semi competitive district won.
ReplyDeleteAs is the case with many of these races, the people making the decisions about the finances depend on the early polling and don't reside in the area. As the campaigns wage on and the poll numbers and decisions on which campaigns they will finance progress they fail to change their strategies and decisions are made on outdated data. The mailers from Emrick just didn't cut it. When you look at the financial mess Northampton County is in this race should have been decided very early on. Emricks people ran a very poor campaign. Warren's peope were better prepared.
ReplyDeleteMoney that would have been better spent on the victims of drunk driving violence.
ReplyDeleteThis is why no one should ever take anything they read on this blog seriously. The House Republican Campaign Committee and an Independent Expenditure funded by billionaire Jeffrey Yass spent as much, if not more, than the Democrats spent on Warren. Warren raised virtually nothing himself. Most of his money came from the House Democratic Campaign Committee. The reason you know about it is Warren properly reported it in his expense reports. In my opinion, Emrick did not properly report the money the HRCC spent on his behalf, although, I’m sure they did or will.
ReplyDeleteNot all elections are about money. Warren also ran an incredible field program where he and his operation knocked on over 50,000 doors during the entire election cycle. Emrick didn't do that. Emrick didn't work as hard as Warren and his campaign.
ReplyDeleteFlyers, signs, ads, polls - total waste of money. Dumb "Ds" are going to vote D. Ridiculous "Rs" are going to vote R. Hardly anyone does research or thinks for themselves. Besides are that paper is environmentally harmful. Then to add insult to injury the bums leave their trashy signs up for weeks after the so-called elections.
ReplyDeleteIts pretty bad when a goof like Warren beats you, but I heard there's no tears being shed in the Republican Party, since his arrogance is breathtaking. Now, we need to get rid of Freeman, Schlossberg and Boscola.
ReplyDeleteThis would have been a none-of-the-above race for me.
ReplyDeleteThe incumbent never did much and the challenger never made a case for himself.
I live in that district and cast no vote in that race.
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