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| From 538 |
538, a website that focuses on opinion polls, is concerned that Hillary Clinton is just a little too sure of winning Pennsylvania this Fall. She has undeniable lead in the polls and has set aside $137 million for television. But she's reserved no air time in the Keystone State, which is gone from Democrat to "toss up," according to NPR. Given the perception that many Pennsylvania Democrats are corrupt, from Chaka Fattah to Kathleen Kane to Fed Ed, this omission will hurt unless quickly remedied.
From 538:
"Many Democrats take Pennsylvania for granted because it hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988. But in 2012, its margin for President Obama was just 5.4 percentage points, equal to his margin in Colorado and less than his margins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — all states included in early pro-Clinton ad reservations this year. Moreover, unlike those four states, Pennsylvania has trended toward Republicans over time, thanks to its older, whiter and more working-class electorate."Political corruption among Pa. Democrats should reach a crescendo toward the end of the summer, when Attorney general Kathleen Kane goes to trial. In the meantime, federal investigations and guilty pleas have painted Democratic elected officials in a very poor light. Democrats are certainly going to lose the Attorney general's seat, and could lose every row office, especially with an inept Governor who needlessly dragged out a budget fight that he ultimately lost.
* * *
"So far this year, 73,543 Democratic registrants have switched to the GOP. The switchers mostly live in heavily white, working-class counties, and most did so in advance of the April 26 primary, presumably to vote for Trump. Trump took 57 percent statewide, but he took 70 percent in Fayette County (Uniontown) and 77 percent in Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) — locales that recorded two of the highest rates of party switching."
It could be that Hillary is not taking Pa. for granted. Remember, this is the state derided by then candidate Barack Obama for clinging to guns and religion.
She may have written the state off.
67 comments:
I believe she may have written us off. The state is trending more Republican in recent years. No worries - she's going to kick that racist celebrity's behind in November.
She is the most investigated presidential candidate in the history of our country and guess what, she has never been indicted for all the republican charges that were brought against her. She appears to be squeaky clean according to the FBI and other investigative sources. She gets my vote.
More of the same vote Hillary. Looking for a change vote Trump
12.04,5,30, She has never been indicted, because her party has been in power wherever she has been, The party that is as corrupt as she is. It is obvious to anyone with any objectivity that she is guilty of intentionally by-passing open records and archive laws while secretary of state. Not to mention breaking national security laws. This was to hide her using her office to solicit donations to the Clinton foundation. She bold faced lied to the house committee, was caught lying on camera, and was praised by the media and the democratic party for it. Why don't you just admit that she is a corrupt, lying politician and is really good at it, and that you are proud to be associated with her and her corruption, then you would at least be honest.
Trump/Clinton
Two pieces of shit.
Trump is looking at a 40 state win in November. Pennsylvania will be one of those 40 states.
@8:00 I fully expect Hillary Clinton to receive and also to accept a full pardon from Obama after the election, win or lose.
Hillary Clinton was a senator, the secretary of state, and could become president. Therefore, banks, corporations, foreign governments and businesses want to be on her good side. They want Hillary in their pocket. Paying her a bag of money would be illegal. So they paid her payola via speaker fees of $250,000 and higher for 20-minute speeches.
Hillary has learned that being a Democrat in Washington permits her to arrogantly function outside the law without consequence.
@8:09,
Are you suggesting that she will be indicted & convicted before the November elections?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/06/24/pro-clinton-super-pac-plans-10-5-million-ad-buy-in-pennsylvania/
Another 4-more years of Obama's politics and control! God Bless us!
@8:25 I fully expect the FBI to present to Attorney General Lynch a list of laws that Hillary Clinton has broken that they uncovered in their investigation, and recommend indictments.
I also fully expect that the Attorney General will simply sit on this and take no action, as there is a massive conflict of interest between the Attorney General working for the President, who has endorsed Hillary to be his successor.
A major uproar would happen if indictments are issued or the opposite if no indictments were issued so I suspect the entire situation will be put off by AG Lynch to avoid the ramifications of her recommending indictments or not.
Then once the election is held and decided, Obama will step in and just pardon Clinton, along with Eric Holder, the IRS Director, Lois Lerner and all the others which have committed dubious acts during his administration.
I have always found it repulsive the way Hillary and Democrats consistently imply that blacks are mentally inferior. For example: In essence, Hillary and her fellow Democrats say it is too hard for simpleminded coloreds to acquire a photo ID. Thus, requiring a photo ID to vote is racist and disenfranchises blacks. This is absurd and extremely insulting.
In my political system, you cannot pardon someone for a crime they have never been convicted of. Just sayin'.
Hillary Clinton had an unprecedented 14 point national average swing in the last month. She will win the electoral college with little problem and bring with her a wave election sweeping out many incumbent Republican congressman.
When it gets down to it, the American people are smart enough to see an unqualified charlatan like Donald Trump for what he is - a huckster using national campaign airtime to promote his businesses.
To think, a lot of low information voters will vote for Trump because he wants to end China's trade imbalance all while hypocritically making products with his brand IN CHINA. Think.
The Obama /Clinton plan is simple, if she wins in November, they will indict and she will be pardoned by Obama, or if she looses same plan. If she looses and is not indicted, she is at risk of being indicted by Trump. Also she cannot criticize Obama or she will be indicted. She will be covered by the media and Obama praised for fostering unity.
8:34 - So says Andrew Napolitano and the other Fox News alternate reality stars. You need to step away from the right wing echo chamber and actually educate yourself. One area you might want to focus on is the independence of the Atty General and the Justice Dept.
8:50 - Yeah. that's exactly what the Democrats say. Give me a break with your racist rants.
8:56 - Another genius. Ray, why not look into spelling "lose" and then move onto basic civics. You are exactly the kind of voter Trump is looking for. He LOVES the uneducated, he said so! Why not have a taco bowl at lunch today?
@8:51 Nixon was pardoned and never convicted of a crime
@8:53 When they poll Democrats only, they get the results you believe in
Trump/Clinton are two bad choices this fall, but it's not like the respective primaries offered much better options. It was Clinton or someone further left or Trump and a few others further right. Sane, reasonably intelligent prospective candidates look at the current political arena and figure the headaches and heartache isn't worth it and we're left with ego-maniacs who are used to skirting the law or bulldozing over them.
That all said, anyone expecting some sort of decades worth of old investigations to explode over the next couple months is holding their breath for nothing.
Hillary Clinton has learned how to deceive black voters; insultingly talking down to them by speaking with a black dialect (“I don't feel no ways tired”) and claiming to carry hot sauce in her purse. Oh please!
9:04 - Oh Christ, this again? You didn't listen to the polls in 2012 either when it was evident to everyone except Mitt Romney and his supporters that he was going to lose. Mitt didn't even write a concession speech because he didn't "believe" the polls. (Otherwise know as mathematics. Math is hard, we know.)
9:07 - And between the two, anyone who loves this country HAS to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Brent Scowcroft who served as National Security Adviser to Presidents George H. W. Bush and Gerald Ford ENDORSE HRC along with many others in the world of national security. You want to be safe? Don't vote for an unqualified dope like Trump.
9:08 - Yet African Americans love her and Bill and vote for them in overwhelming numbers. Go figure! Better to vote for Trump who likes to point out "my African American!".
Actually, Blacks have suffered greatly under Obama, epidemic unemployment and so on.
Hillary will continue Obama's failed policies, furthering the downward spiral of black Americans: more poverty, more joblessness, more black-on-black crime, more fatherless households and more government dependency and enslavement.
As a black guy, it sickens me that so many blacks continue stupidly voting for their greatest Nemesis, Democrats.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll released Friday showed that 46.6% of likely American voters supported Clinton while 33.3% supported Trump, the likely Republican nominee.
Though she portrays herself as a champion of women, Hillary Clinton's history confirms that she is the complete opposite.
Throughout their marriage, Bill Clinton has been unable to keep it in his pants. Women were coming out of the woodwork going public with affairs and sexual assault allegations against Bill. Hillary headed up the Bimbo Eruption Squad to destroy, intimidate and silence her husband's lovers and victims.
As the attorney for a child rapist, Hillary got him off. Hillary accused his 12-year-old victim of being a mentally ill slut. His 12-year-old victim said, “Hillary Clinton took me through hell.”
And if Obama actually made great efforts to help the black community, he would have been crucified by white, Republican jackoffs.
9:56 - You may want to look up the role and duty of a defense attorney.
With the corrupt media involved, polls are as worthless as a $3 bill.
Hillary claims to champion homosexuals while accepting millions from countries that execute homosexuals and enslave women.
The polls told us that Ronald Reagan was 30 some points down to that fool, Jimmy Carter. The people then told us something entirely different when they voted.
I think we should be smart enough to consider the source when these "objective" polls come out.
This post really ha nothing to with the relative merits of either candidate. This post focuses on whether Clinton is making a strategic error by not funding ads in Pa.
10:04 - Keep questioning polls - it's endearing. Nate Silver was nearly perfect in his polling of the 2012 race yet no one believed Romney would lose - and lose badly - to Obama.
10:36 - Possibly but it's obvious I know a hell of a lot more than you do.
Charlie, Nice catch on The Washington Post article. We know from 538 she is spending nothing in Pa. We now know, thanks to you, that a Super OAC is spending $10.5 million. That seems like a coordination between her campaign and the Super PAC. That's a pretty blatant violation of FEC spending rules.
Looking at the map you posted, it looks like Hillary knows she's not going to appeal to the pro gun crowd nor the bible thumpers outside of the big cities.
Even with the precincts in Philadelphia voting 150% for her, she's just not popular enough in PA to win the state. Therefore she wants to concentrate on places like Virginia where the Governor is allowing convicts to vote to give her the edge.
I can't stand Trump. But 538 has been comically wrong on Trump's chances since last June. They're not alone. They're not credible, in my opinion.
National polls really don't mean a lot anyway. Electing the president is done on a state-by-state basis with electoral votes. So it's the state polls that are what really matter.
The point is that if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Texas, and holds what Mitt Romney won in 2012, he beats Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. So it's really silly or shows just how weak Hillary Clinton is as a candidate.
Was it true that Hillary was heard to say...."Laws....where I'm going we don't need laws..."
if you want more jihad, don’t vote for Trump, and help Hillary win.
If you want to be sure our borders remain open, don’t vote for Trump, and help Hillary win.
And if you want the next president to be someone who got Americans killed and then lied about it, don’t vote for Trump, and help Hillary win.
And when Hillary Clinton is sworn in as the next president, you can pat yourself on the back, know you did the right thing, and raise a glass to your integrity, which will have served your ego but not the nation.
Whole lot of Faux News and Breitbart followers on here. It is a shame there are so many people lacking the critical thinking needed to separate facts from opinions. Of course, if all you want from right wing media is validation of your own biases then critical thinking is not required. Opinions are like a**holes (mine included), everybody has one. Just becasue you have an opinion doesn't make it a fact.
Oh, and despite all of your fevered conspiracy theories and wishful dreaming of a Hillary perp walk and beheading, she will win -- and win big. Deal with it.
I hope you don't gamble
How did Bill and Hillary Clinton, two people who have spent their entire lives in "public service" end up with a net worth of over $200 million?
When did "experience" being a bureaucrat become a good thing?
Hillary Clinton is always portrayed as a genius level mastermind who is ready for the presidency on day one. But what Democrat has not been presented this way to the American people for the past half century? John Kerry? Al Gore? Obama? In contrast the republican is always presented as a dunce.
Based on her history and education, I don't see much. She was a lawyer in a small law firm in Arkansas that was a criminal enterprise itself. Her positions are foolish, of course all liberal positions are. She's not particularly crafty, as an intelligent criminal should be, because she always gets caught. She merely has counted on being a democrat in good standing to avoid the legal consequences.
So, where do we see signs of real intelligence in this woman?
And what exactly do you have to say about winning in Pa? That is the subject of this post.
RCP Pennsylvania poll average has Clinton only plus .5, so essentially a tie. All the talk of "low information voters" comes across as the hubris of folks who only swim in the same water with similar fish. A cautionary reminder of how confident NorCo Dems felt about Callahan and Council races a few years ago. I have heard and read perspectives from across the political spectrum trying to explain the appeal of Trump. Interestingly the more critical "analysis" from both the "liberal" and "conservative" viewpoints have actually been more similar than different. I suppose to some that common ground sounds like a recipe for a Clinton victory, but conventional analysis and "wisdom" has not been worth too much this year and such analysis typically cannot escape an anti-Trump starting point.
This year's presidential election is shaping to be a rather visceral vote. I don't really mean the yahoos who show up at rallies who sucker-punch anti-Trump protesters, or assault or egg pro-Trump supporters. Regardless of economic class; regardless of "low" vs "high" information; even regardless if you acknowledge that both (including your own) candidate has said less than truthful things, if not out-right lied, for political expediency; which candidate best projects your concerns/apprehensions/fears/anger against (--fill in the blank, L or R--)? Not necessarily an inspired vote "for" your candidate, but a vote "against" whatever you think the opposing candidate represents. A voter's perception is their reality, right or wrong.
To come full circle to the original post. I'll throw another poll, albeit very unscientific, that reinforces that PA is a toss-up barring some devastating news about one or the other candidate between now and the election. In my high school government in-class mock elections the youth vote went for Trump. Interestingly the 2 AP classes ("low information"?) were the strongest for Trump. In the general-level classes, 1 was comfortably for Trump, 1 was barely for Clinton. I was a little surprised, and asked why. Some of the comments were pro-Trump based on his campaign rhetoric at the time. For some, particularly in one of the general-level classes, there was stronger support for Sanders. Consistent in all classes, however, was a fairly wide-spread dislike for Clinton. I know national polls show both Clinton/Trump have very high unfavorables, and I can personally relate, but make of it what you will... how many of you knew "that" person in school, or on a sports team, or in the workplace... you may have felt they were actually quite qualified, but you just didn't like them.
Anyone who has a breath of sanity could not vote for Hillary the Criminal. She's made a career out of public corruption (look at the millions in payoffs she's taken in exchange for political favors), and has little or no regard for our national security. She has committed transgressions with classified material that anyone else who does not have her political protection would be spending 20 years in Leavenworth for.
And you think she's going to take Pennsylvania or win in November?
Yes. One word Philadelphia
"A cautionary reminder of how confident NorCo Dems felt about Callahan and Council races a few years ago."
Excellent point. The council candidate's were sold down the river by a terrible Executive campaign by Callahan. Also Bethlehem rejected him, he only own it by about 200 votes. The election was over at that point. The team pieces were crap and the other candidates paid the price for riding with him.
The funny thing is the tea party guys that won immediately raised taxes by 10% trying for 20% and started running for other offices before their chairs were warm. Low information voters indeed!
I'm writing in Lil %2 Mikey Molovinski for president of the Ustados Unidos!
Mr. O'Hare
It's also important to remember that it's late June, not late September. People are thinking about summer road trips, not the Presidential election.
Let's wait until election season before we prognosticate :)
@3:26,
You are absolutely correct. The last 3 elections have been a battle of "who don't you want to lead the nation". We no longer look at what the candidate has to offer, rather what detriment he/she can cause the nation. It has become selecting the lesser of two evils.
Jamie, I get sick of hearing about the defects with Hillary or Trump, they usually come from people more accustomed to talking at each other instead of to each other. I wanted to focus on the race and Pa, and received some interesting comments. The race is on now, not September.
I personally don't like either candidate, but If someone made me 'Dictator for a Month' I would have ordered Donald's head shaved and that he pay back all the vendors and others the others he owes BEFORE he allowed to run of President-- I would put Hillary in a cell that had water running thru the cell floor,in her underwear - cold and dark and then ask her what happened to Vince Foster -why are you subdi sizinging pal on a non-profit and the other people that got killed in her State Dept term in LIbya, for starters.
For the life of me, I can't think of one position that Hillary Clinton was shown to be correct on during the time she was Senator or Secretary of State
Why anyone would vote for this record of constant failure is beyond me.
She will win PA but by an even slimmer margin than Obama did last go round. Cities voter turnout will assure victory. PA Dem's know the race here is gonna be hairy.
3:26 - High school students will almost ALWAYS have the same preference as their parents. Very bad anecdote.
3:44 - Yes, because she is in no way as unqualified or overmatched as Donald Trump. Trump is scared. He didn't want to get this far. He has absolutely no knowledge on foreign or domestic policy. Independents will break to HRC just like most thinking Republicans. Republicans who value national security and sane foreign policy above all else.. HRC has over $120 million in campaign funds and Trump has $2 million. HRC hasn't even started hitting Trump - we all know everything there is to know about HRC. And to the poster that says she always "gets caught" that would imply she's ever been charged with ANYTHING other than phantom charges leveled against her by Fox stooges.
The American people will not want Donald Trump of all people in charge of the nuclear codes.
@3:26 - If there was a "like" button on here, I'd click it for your post.
As Jamie said, its still VERY early in the game and making bets or projections at this stage is at best a guess.
Pennsylvania has always had the reliable Republican "T" in the Center and Northern counties, with Dem's always counting on Philly, Pittsburgh and their suburbs. While the map showing Pittsburgh starting to tilt over to Republican should be of concern to the Dems, Philly still has a 5 to 1 advantage population wise over Pittsburgh. Trump needs to crush Hilary everywhere in the state outside of Philly or make MAJOR gains in Philly to confidently win the state.
I think Trump does crush Hilary in the "T", but not sure he'll score the overwhelming wins he'll need in and around the Pittsburgh area, the Lehigh Valley or Philly 'burbs for anyone to confidently predict a Trump win in PA. That said, Hilary would be very foolish to ignore PA if she is assuming that the state is in the "safe" column for her.
Scott
http://www.politicspa.com/ppp-poll-clinton-46-trump-42/76503/
She is up 4 in PA according to new poll. Trumps antics were good for the primary, but will cost him the general.
"3:26 - High school students will almost ALWAYS have the same preference as their parents. Very bad anecdote.
8:34 AM"
Agree that statistically there is at this age a strong correlation. Like I said, make of it what you will. However, your own comment, "same preference as their parents" would indeed reinforce the whole point of Bernie's post, wouldn't it?
I will be writing in John Brown.
As some have said here, it is early. Depending on what happens between now and November and how each candidate responds will mean a lot. Guaranteed Trump will march boldly forward with foot firmly in mouth because he will not be controlled. Meanwhile, Hillary will look more and more presidential. Once the conventions are over, expect to see a rally behind Clinton especially if she takes the Berners seriously in a very public way. She is going to be forced to spend money in PA but will wait until closer to the election I'm guessing. Let's not forget she beat Obama in the primary here so her base has still been waiting for this opportunity.
I generally like 538, but I think the fact that the data used for this graphic goes from November 2008 (after all voters would have been registered for that year's general election) to June of this year gives a bit of a skewed impression of how registration has shifted. GOP voters tend to have higher turnout during congressional election years, of which there have been 2 since '08, while there has only been one presidential election, and that was with an incumbent president. Basically, I think registration could level out between now and the election, which would make a democratic win more likely.
It's also interesting that the highest increases in Democratic registration have been in the "ring counties" around Philly, which, unlike the city itself, have traditionally leaned Republican. This is an area that is unlike the other red parts of the state in that it is densely populated, and tends to be fiscally conservative, but not culturally conservative, so it is not as likely to turn out for Trump.
I think Trump flipping PA to red in November would require not only high turnout it the "T", but also very low turnout from Philadelphia and lower-than-usual turnout from young voters, who were more energized than usual by the primaries this cycle.
Know this thread is slowly getting buried, but 538 has new analysis out...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Scott
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