During the darkest days of the Battle of Britain, which went on for 57 consecutive nights and claimed 557 lives, the British remained resilient thanks to one man. The British Bulldog, Winston Churchill, inspired hope and confidence in his countrymen. He had a knack for delivering the most dreadful news and making people feel that much stronger and courageous in the face of the Nazi menace. He made a point, with very few exceptions, of being totally honest. People could count on what he said as being the truth. We are now dealing with something that, while far less sinister than umbrella bombs, is more deadly. COVID-19 has claimed 763,000 American lives. But the agencies charged with keeping us informed have failed miserably. The Pennsylvania Department of Health (DoH), in particular, is a disgrace.
On Friday, the DoH issued a news release making this statement: "In licensed nursing and personal care homes, there have been a total of 79,904 resident cases of COVID-19 to date, and 17,453 cases among employees, for a total of 97,357 at 1,647 distinct facilities in all 67 counties. Out of total deaths reported to PA-NEDSS, 14,480 have occurred in residents from nursing or personal care facilities."
But today, it issued a news release that completely contradicts what it said on Friday. "The department has deployed a new algorithm for categorizing cases as residents or employees in licensed nursing and personal care homes. With the below breakdown, there is a one-time overall increase in cases of 17,810. In licensed nursing and personal care homes, there have been a total of 66,911 resident cases of COVID-19 to date, and 48,256 cases among employees, for a total of 115,167 at 1,663 distinct facilities in all 67 counties. Out of total deaths reported to PA-NEDSS, 14,941 have occurred in residents from nursing or personal care facilities."
How can it claim that, with the increase brought on by a new algorithm, there are now 66,911 resident cases of COVID-19 when that figure is actually much lower than the 79,904 resident cases reported on Friday?
This is both confusing and sloppy and completely fails to keep the public informed about the current severity of this pandemic.
Numbers cruncher Steve Thode, who has followed the data from the onset, has this to say:
"That is a stunning increase in LTCF employee cases by 30,803 - almost tripling the number of LTCF employee cases; and, a reduction in LTCF resident cases by 12,993.
"Also, that's an increase (from Friday to today) of 461 deaths among LTCF residents!
"I have lost any level of confidence I may have ever had in DoH's COVID data reporting."
Oh yeah, they've decided to count reinfections as new cases. This is something the CDC told them to do eight months ago, and they're just getting to it now.
If the pandemic were the Third Reich, we'd all be speaking German by now.
I'm more concerned with what the Guv, DEP and the Environmental Hearing Board are up to. Wolf and his executive agencies have been creating new regulations out of whole cloth, bypassing the legislative process. You know, that democracy thing?
ReplyDeleteThese are local issues for everyone. Everyone who has an electric bill, heating bill, sewer and water or even an on lot septic system. Get ready to pay more for all of these services. Wolf and DEP are playing an expensive game of hide the ball, all for his legacy and their ego.
Daddy knows best.
The entire COVID data-keeping process has been a mess for a long time. There's way too much concern about trying to correct minor recordkeeping issues from the past by skewing current statistics. If an issue needs to be fixed from the past, it should be fixed on the statistics from the past, not on the current numbers that determine public policy.
ReplyDeleteAnytime data is manipulated, it loses its usefulness, and also gives the deniers some legitimate reason for the skepticism. For example, I read an article recently on CNN about how a major item of concern right now is a sharp increase in 7-day cases in the northeast. Mixed in this data is the PA data dump for reinfections, and I seem to remember it being noted in the PA announcement that other states are making similar adjustments. Is this a real increase requiring action or is the increase largely (or even exclusively) the product of these data dumps? By the time the data is amalgamated, no one really knows.
First, you are off topic. It is highly insulting to just talk about something other than what is presented for discussion. It indicates your own stupidity, in addition to being rude.
ReplyDeleteSecond, any agency that haslegislative authority to create rules on given areas may do so when their authority to do so is specifically conferred by statute. That is democracy, too.
Third, when it is an agency charged with protecting us, they should be called protections, not regulations.
Fourth, the state DEP has been pretty much useless. Idf anything, it has been a tool for development.
Stick to the topic.
Am I the only one here seeing the irony of this post?
ReplyDeleteSo you're upset that you had one set of numbers, and were later given an updated count that materially changed what those original numbers meant.
Can you imagine if that happened in any other government function {heavy sarcasm intended}?
This doesn't end for a long time. I think conspiracy theorists are intellectually lazy (and usually high), but I don't think this is your father's animal-to-human virus. It's not nice to fool Mother Nature, and I suspect someone tried; with disastrous consequences. The latest is very troubling. What's the plan for Gracedale? Not another minute should pass without a plan to prevent and/or deal with something like this ....
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/8-dead-dozens-infected-with-covid-19-due-to-outbreak-at-connecticut-nursing-home/2652161/?_osource=db_npd_nbc_wvit_twt_shr
The CDC weekly cumulative COVID mortality numbers by standard demographic categories are here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
ReplyDeletePopulation by standard demographic categories are here:https://www.census.gov/
Calculate percent of population for death count of each demographic category (Deaths / Population) * 100
Does it surprise you or is it directionally what you expected?
@3:40
ReplyDeleteHere's what the plan *should* be across the board.
For the At-risk:
Military surplus M40 mask (almost as safe as an operating room whether or not others are wearing a mask) in any higher risk setting. Vaccination if they and/or their caregiver(s) concur it is the most prudent course of treatment.
For the Working Age and Children Without Comorbidity:
Nothing unless for some reason they or their parents want it. They're not at any statistically significant risk.
The DOH staff worked very hard to take data from many facilities and compile this data into something meaningful. We need to remember this important fact that facilities received more money for care and death of people with covid. For example someone on hospice who was dying and got covid and died they could put cause of death as covid. When in fact they most likely died from the diagnosis associated with hospice but covid became the final cause of death because again due to more reimbursement. So the numbers are skewed. All of these facilities made errors and corrections and DOH staff had to again make any adjustments. And let's not forget they had their regular jobs to do also. This has not been an easy time for DOH staff keeping up with the federal rule changes to their statistic building. At least they are giving us statistics and admitting to errors. We certainly aren't getting the statistics now that we should be getting on those in hospitals. What vaccine did they get?. How long ago? So we can actually see the effect on alleged decrease in efficacy of the vaccine to make an educated decision on when to get the booster based on what type we received. But no federal or state statistics on that. Numbers without details are just nbers and do not give us the information we all deserve
ReplyDelete