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| Dr. Luther Rhodes |
First, of the state's draconian lockdown, he noted that "fear is dictating this." He added that the Lehigh Valley should be on the yellow phase of re-opening, "with hints of green." I by no means am suggesting that Covid-19 is, but many of us, including the Governor, have over-reacted.
Second, he confirms a point I made Tuesday about the Covid-19 statistics. He said it is "data biased" because the high rate of infections and deaths at nursing homes present a false picture of what is going on elsewhere within the Lehigh Valley.
Third, and he wondered why there has been so little news coverage of this point, he said it is no longer necessary to isolate someone with Covid-19 symptoms for any longer than 10 days. In fact, he noted the CDC has changed its guidance to reduce the isolation period from 14 to 10 days. According to Dr. Rhodes, a person infected with Covid-19 is only highly contagious for the first three days after symptoms first appear.
Follow the science.
Hopefully, State Senator Lisa Boscola will listen to Dr. Rhodes the next time she is asked to vote on a measure ending the shutdown. For her part, she is advocating a "sales tax holiday for restaurants that have been forced to close their doors. "It's going to take awhile to recover," she admitted. Actually, Lisa, some will never recover.
62 comments:
Rhodes is on the right track but he didn't mention feral cats, and Boscola is picking favorites, it must be a tough time to have an expense account.
Only restaurants serving rice and beans are going to need help.
Forget about COVID-19. The real health emergency is mental illness. Just look at the comments on this blog.
Tom Wolf is an asshole
Tom Wolf is the most responsible governor Pennsylvania has known in a long, long time. And to think the author of this blog voted for him even though he would have you think that Wolf is acting in a "draconian" manner.
Opposition to reopening comes from a vocal minority on fixed incomes. C'mon, admit it! Surely we are all can agree on the post at 5:50 AM: Tom Wolf is an asshole>
He's right of course. But everything is politically charged these days, and the virus response is too. One party benefits from economic collapse at the polls this November. It's in that party's best interest to prolong the pain closer to November. I think that's why Boscola and her ilk will not be listening to your crazy infectious disease doctor vs a troubled pediatrician who will eventually depart this soil (hopefully after a long life) as a confirmed male decedent. We're checking boxes and trying to win elections. The virus is a tool, not a problem.
Wolf is bad news he is wrecking the lives of far more people than the virus.
And the expert is just guessing as he does not have testing to back up his claims.
He may have a point but without any proof he is just talking.
The elitists hate when I call Wolf's lockdown "draconian." That's precisely what it is. Ask the 1.6 million who have no job or the many self-employed who have no income. Ask the small business owners who have been destroyed by Wolf's imperious edicts and his absolute refusal to be transparent. He has forgotten the blue collars and working poor, the people who make this country tick. I remember a time when his party was the champion of these people. Now he even screws the trade unions.
Agree with your post- The Dr. analysis make sense. And Wolf has screwed the small business/ blue collar guy. Look at the debacle when you try to access the state unemployment website. For the life of me, I don't understand Boscola's popularity- like most of our local pols, she's become a back bencher. Emrick is non-existent. The only 1 trying to do anything is Scavello. We need term limits!
There is little attention being paid to the pain that is coming:
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-pa-coronavirus-state-budget-revenues-shortfall-20200324.html
According to this article, PA has enough reserve to fund itself for 3.5 days.
Wolf's answer so far is to keep his fingers crossed and hope that the Feds will bail him out.
-Clem
Bernie O'Hare said...
The elitists hate when I call Wolf's lockdown "draconian." That's precisely what it is. Ask the 1.6 million who have no job or the many self-employed who have no income. Ask the small business owners who have been destroyed by Wolf's imperious edicts and his absolute refusal to be transparent. He has forgotten the blue collars and working poor, the people who make this country tick. I remember a time when his party was the champion of these people. Now he even screws the trade unions.
May 7, 2020 at 7:46 AM
No, those "elitists" want to live and don't believe that you non-elitists (what a joke THAT is!) should be able to impose undue LIFE-THREATENING risks upon everyone else.
What exactly do you think is happening when the White House is suppressing the CDC reopening guidelines that the White House itself requested? Is that "following the science" or "following the Kushner"?
I think it's great that we have all these codgers on here who are much more capable than the governor!
I think it's a disgrace that our governor is less informed on economics than "codgers" who take a few moments out of their day to comment on a local blog.
The wimp has all day, every day, to figure it out. And yet, he remains clueless.
-Clem
The media and so called leaders of our country are responsible for the panic. This was handled in the worse way possible but that should be expected with our very corrupt career politicians. The system must change for us to have good government.
How many votes for governor did you get?
84% of deaths in PA had at least one comorbidity. 64% Had 2-4. Over half the deaths in PA were among a population who were literally at deaths door. While sad, some deaths, especially those with Alzheimers or dementia are not tragic. Whats tragic is the trampling of our freedom and denying the rights and financial futures of those arbitrarily labeled "non-essential". It's especially painful that all of the reasons for shutdown(death rate, Imperial College model, exponential growth, hospital capacity(93% beds available)) have all been proven to be obscenely overestimated and/or flat out wrong yet we still plow forward with lockdown with no real end in sight.
In addition to the nursing home statistics in PA, which have been well covered here, an interesting statistic has come out of NY.
Apparently most (about 65%) of the new, non-nursing home cases there are coming from people who are under that state's lockdown order.
So that means that not only is Wolf an idiot for his one-size-fits-all approach here that's collapsing the PA economy, his order is likely also putting you MORE at risk of getting the disease.
So now there's even more blood on Wolf's hands.
You show no awareness of what other options those new patients may or may not have.
It's very easy to criticize what those with the responsibility have done in a most difficult situation. Get a grip on yourself.
If hospitals get medicare payments of upward to $ 39,000 for treating a covid19 death, what will nursing homes receive if any? Are ventilators being used in nursing homes?
Anonymous said...
I think it's a disgrace that our governor is less informed on economics than "codgers" who take a few moments out of their day to comment on a local blog.
The wimp has all day, every day, to figure it out. And yet, he remains clueless.
-Clem
May 7, 2020 at 9:04 AM
So I guess you're one of those "manly men", eh?
I'm still trying to understand why golf was dangerous last Thursday, and suddenly safe the next day. Masks are not helpful. Don't wear masks. Masks are a probably good idea. Masks are the law. I'm not sure who's right. But everybody's taken a crack a being wrong.
Initially the Gov. closed all businesses except those that are "life-sustaining", which golf clearly isn't. Now that restrictions are being relaxed a bit, golf is considered to be an activity that poses a relatively low danger of virus spread.
Why wouldn't we want to be afraid of a deadly virus?
How can we trust in government preparedness when the White House is suppressing such as Dr. Fauci and the CDC? I prefer not to die, thank you very much.
From The Hill:
President Trump is running against the polls with his calls for state and local governments to reopen their economies in an effort to stem the damage from what is likely to be the worst economic contraction in 90 years.
Despite the protests that have garnered attention in Michigan and other states, voters in a series of polls have said they are not yet ready to resume anything approaching daily life as the pandemic coronavirus continues to rage.
12:32 Respondents to those polls were likely not financially impacted by the shutdown. The polls should ask that qualifying question
These are random samples. And they document what's the majority view.
The cure is killing more people than the virus---Wolf will kill more people and kill the Pa. economy. The truth hurts but so does Wolf.
@1:02 PM How exactly will Wolf's policies that are working to reduce/prevent the spread of COVID-19 "kill people"? Pennsylvania has about 2,500 deaths from COVID-19. How many have been killed by social distancing policies?
I got this straight from my state rep who was briefed by Dr Levine, these stats don't include the 200 or so that were added late yesterday due to miscalculations:
3106 have died of covid, 2108 of them were in nursing homes, personal care homes, or assisted living residences. So 67.9% of people who have died lived in these types of settings,
Average age of those that died is 79 years old.
of the 3106 who died, 11.9% had 4 comorbidities, 22.7% had 3 comorbidities, 27.2% had 2 comorbidities, and 22.6% had 1 comorbidity. 11% had zero. While these percentages only add up to 95.4%, these were the stats provided verbally, perhaps Dr. Levine is mathematics challenged.
Of the 3106 who died, 61% had hypertension, 54% had heart disease, 37% had diabetes, and 30% had chronic pulmonary disease.
According to the Hospital and Health System Association of PA, (HAP), citing PA dept of health stats, there are 37000 beds in PA hospitals, as of today, 2572 of these beds were occupied by covid patients, which amounts to 6.95%.
There are 539 patients on ventilators, which amounts to 1.46% of all hospital beds.
Given these numbers IMO we need to protect the nursing facilities, have the elderly and health challenged shelter in place, and smartly and carefully begin to open are economy back up.
Ma
"How exactly will Wolf's policies that are working to reduce/prevent the spread of COVID-19 "kill people"? Pennsylvania has about 2,500 deaths from COVID-19. How many have been killed by social distancing policies?"
You are being purposely obtuse and I am going to start deleting you bc you argue dishonestly. You know damn well that Wolf's lockdown has lead to deaths of despair, increased domestic violence from assholes, people who die bc they are afraid to go to the ER or see their MD and kids who are not receiving necessary vaccines. If you continue being a sophist and abusing readers, I will delete you or anyone who sounds like you. Most people now realize they've been had, and you are clearly supporting Wolf bc of his party, even though it is clear he has over-reacted. Now go away.
Wolf is the killer and his liberal friend will not admit--they are afraid of the truth.
Bernie, I see you are once again deleting people pointing out you many, many emotional issues. Also those e who don't skew the information in your way. You are really unhinged over all of this. Get help.
Bernie O'Hare said...
"How exactly will Wolf's policies that are working to reduce/prevent the spread of COVID-19 "kill people"? Pennsylvania has about 2,500 deaths from COVID-19. How many have been killed by social distancing policies?"
You are being purposely obtuse and I am going to start deleting you bc you argue dishonestly. You know damn well that Wolf's lockdown has lead to deaths of despair, increased domestic violence from assholes, people who die bc they are afraid to go to the ER or see their MD and kids who are not receiving necessary vaccines. If you continue being a sophist and abusing readers, I will delete you or anyone who sounds like you. Most people now realize they've been had, and you are clearly supporting Wolf bc of his party, even though it is clear he has over-reacted. Now go away.
May 7, 2020 at 2:42 PM
I don't know who wrote the first message, but are you truly so unable to have a discussion that you have to threaten censorship? If his arguments are so horrible, then rebut them.
I guess you're not much of a believer in free speech, are you?
2.42
"Wolf's lockdown has lead to deaths of despair, increased domestic violence from assholes, people who die bc they are afraid to go to the ER or see their MD and kids who are not receiving necessary vaccines."
so do you wish to compare the increase in deaths(above last years figure) as you say with the number of deaths due to Corona?
Which one is going to be higher?
And that does not even include the increase in Corona deaths due to a full opening up of Pa.
Anonymous said...
Wolf is the killer and his liberal friend will not admit--they are afraid of the truth.
May 7, 2020 at 3:21 PM
Yes, the truth is responsible for many deaths.
or
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/05/05/coronavirus-latest-new-university-of-penn-model-predicts-350000-deaths-by-end-of-june-if-all-states-fully-reopen/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
"Here’s what the model shows: if states continue stay-at-home orders, the model predicts, nationwide, roughly 117,000 COVID-19 deaths from May 1 through the end of June, with 18.6 million jobs lost.
Partially reopening would result in additional deaths during the same time, with 14 million jobs lost.
But if all states fully reopen, it estimates nearly 350,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of June, with a half-million jobs lost. So, the data shows the number of deaths could surge if states open too quickly.
"So, the data shows the number of deaths could surge if states open too quickly."
No...the MODEL shows that. The data do not show that.
You still have faith in models after they've failed so miserably to this point?
Don't forget the original model from this guy...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278465/neil-ferguson-coronavirus-imperial-college-london-epidemiology-sage-spt
You mean in the same way that when I think about jumping off of a cliff, it's the model that's telling me that I'll go splat and not the data?
Don't the data now tell us that the model was right the first 75,000 times?
You have an update on Sam Murray (not Irish/Lebanese Fraud) fixing an All Star Vote for his Son Joe =pathetic.
"Don't the data now tell us that the model was right the first 75,000 times?"
And wrong the next 2 million or so.
"You mean in the same way that when I think about jumping off of a cliff, it's the model that's telling me that I'll go splat and not the data?"
Good analogy.
"Tommy, just because Andy jumps off a cliff..."
Anonymous said...
"Don't the data now tell us that the model was right the first 75,000 times?"
And wrong the next 2 million or so.
May 7, 2020 at 8:08 PM
Models relate to scenarios. As I recall, the U. of Washington model for no mitigation involved such a number. It was not a prediction of what would happen in any case.
And you don't know how many will die. Dr. Birx says 100,000 to 240,000. That not enough for you?
That Birx prediction is holding up very well indeed.
We haven't yet seen how high the death count will go. That's what models help us to foresee. Maybe we'll hit 2 million after all. we sure are stamping out the virus.
This guy looks like the killer Facci that is a LEFT over from the last criminal president that helped finance the wuhun virus hiring the wuhun witch.
"And you don't know how many will die. Dr. Birx says 100,000 to 240,000. That not enough for you?"
Doesn't sound like it's enough for you. Keep cheering though. Maybe with enough creative counting, they'll deliver for you.
I believe Dr. Jahre, St. Luke’s head of infectious diseases, pretty much stated that business shuttering is overkill and with proper precautions, places should be able to reopen. I have a lot more faith in a doctor who has treated infectious diseases for a career than a political appointee.
Anonymous said...
"And you don't know how many will die. Dr. Birx says 100,000 to 240,000. That not enough for you?"
Doesn't sound like it's enough for you. Keep cheering though. Maybe with enough creative counting, they'll deliver for you.
May 7, 2020 at 10:41 PM
So, let's review: the Nitwit President who I assume you support does little to stop the spread of the virus, so lots of people die. You try to use those tragic results to suggest that Trump's opponents are happy with them.
This is as despicable as it gets, but we're on to you. And it's not going to help Trump, in case you were wondering.
What are you smoking?
OMG, really? Listen to the science. Democrats are!
So Wolf is the bad guy? Read your history and see what can happen without being cautious during a pandemic. This guy saying if you have it you only need to quarantine for 10 days? So that is when you're on a vent fighting for your life? You are no longer contagious? Wow. When you people you need to be free get out and resume your lives and your children get the disease , recover and get the second part of the disease you will be all peeved that the state opened too soon. None of this would have been necessary if there was an immediate swift response by the President when we got our first case. He is the leader, right?? Now that he and his vice president were exposed, they may require masks. Seriously? They were exposed , they should be quarantined. End of story. The handling and bungling of the handling of this virus will be a warning to future generations. It will kill avlot more people. Alot will be infected and recover but will they fully recover? Will they recover but have really bad problems after being on life support? I was on a vent for 2 weeks, I was septic. It was not fun. I still have nightmares and pain from the chest tubes and central lines. A few people are saying "oh it only hurts people who are old or have comorbidities" yep that can be your gram, pap, mom, dad, or your adult child with an impaired immune system. Just listen to the common sense guidance that may have saved you from dying.
And where is the proof that the lockdown was or is effective? Where is the data to support the effectiveness of ruining our economy? How many COVID-19 deaths have been prevented? Crickets?
In New Jersey the numbers line up with what he's saying. 50+% of covid19 death are in nursing home type facilities. That's nearly 5000.
I’d prefer to hear from more people with Dr. Rhodes qualifications. We need more people like him to lead us out of this difficult time. No political agenda, just compassionate competent advice.
Democrats are to blame for this MESS. WELCOME TO THE BEGINNING OF SOCIALISM. ENJOY
this must be big bad wolf himself or his buddy levine
While anyone with half a brain can realize that there is no way to prove that the lockdown saved lives, it would seem that Italy gives us a fairly good tool for measuring that. Regardless, I have no desire to go back in time for a redo without lockdown. Reread the sentence on Italy.
then stay in your house
"undue LIFE-THREATENING risks upon everyone else"??? Why can't YOU just stay home? Why do YOU get to dictate what everyone else can do? Because that's what elitists do!
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