I've always thought of Northampton County as a Democratic stronghold, and Lehigh County as more Republican. But over the past ten years, Lehigh has had a higher percentage of Democrats than Northampton. What's more, Northampton County is losing its blue edge.
Ten years ago, Democrats made up an even 50% of Northampton County's then 196,367 registered voters. But that percentage has been dropping, slowly but surely, in a steady decline. In 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected, Democrats accounted for just 46.9% of the then 211,402 registered voters. Though Trump's approval rating last November was 41%, there were fewer Democrats on election day. Democrats made up 45.8% of the 208,417 registered voters,
So in the past ten years, the Democratic edge in Northampton County has dropped 4.2%.
In Lehigh County, however, the numbers have swung more sharply.
In 2009, Democrats accounted for 50.2% of Lehigh's then 223,051 registered voters. The percentage actually increased to 55.2% in 2013. But last year (11/19) Democrats made up 48.3% of the county's 230,199 registered voters.
There have been too many swings in Lehigh County's percentages for me to draw any conclusions about what is going in there. But in Northampton County, we are slowly but surely turning red.
Voters there may detest Trump, but they appear to detest Democrats even more. I believe this is because the party has lost its appeal to its biggest base - the blue collars. Rightly or wrongly, the Democratic party is perceived as elitist and more interested in banning plastic straws than helping people.
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
Local Government TV
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Tuesday, February 18, 2020
48 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
It would appear the local democrat's are less concerned with how their constituent's feel about issues and more focused on extremely liberal national politics. There have been many common sense democrats in local offices in Northampton County but they are being pushed out by the new ultra libs and feminists.
ReplyDeleteEasiest way to put this-
ReplyDeleteThe MAKERS are fed up with the TAKERS.
It's not that hard to see, the democrat party has become the representative of government union workers, the dependent class and several fringe groups. They have not done much for manufacturing workers, self employed or private sector workers. In fact their lust for regulations and embrace of unfair trade have hurt many american workers. It seem they are out of touch with the people that are not residing in Washington D.C. New York or California.
ReplyDeleteLook at what the democrats stand for---sanctuary cities . killing babies up to 9 months, no respect for the law against borders all kinds of stuff for illegals more and more taxes most of them are socialist I can go on and on how can a person with any brains be a democrat
ReplyDeleteDonald Trump is NOT a problem, after all.
ReplyDeleteDemocrats are worse than communist
ReplyDeleteBernie here is the real story, Republicans are staying Republicans and voting Republican, some Democrats are switching parties to become Republicans or Independence and many are voting for Republicans, finally some are embarrassed to be Democrats.
ReplyDeleteIf someone is employed and working for income they want to keep what they make for their efforts. More are working now than were working during the past several years. If they don’t like their job, they leave and quickly pick-up something else.
ReplyDeletePeople earning a wage don’t want to lose the tax cuts Trump enabled. They don’t want higher taxes and more fees on everything to accommodate Democrat promises. They don’t want their jobs sent overseas, and they don’t want to flood the country with new competitors for their jobs at much lower wages. They reject heavy government regulations that restrict their freedoms.
There is only one choice here. Keep what you have . . . or vote Democrat.
TRUMP in landslide house back to republicans senate stay republican THANK YOU Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler, Schumer, OAC, and Omar.
ReplyDelete"Bernie here is the real story, Republicans are staying Republicans and voting Republican, some Democrats are switching parties to become Republicans or Independence and many are voting for Republicans, finally some are embarrassed to be Democrats."
ReplyDeleteIf that were so, why has Lehigh County largely remained the same?
I believe 1:27 may be right. Plus, NorCo Dem party leadership is terrible.
it is interesting you bring up the bill of rights Bernie as the two largest attacks on the bill of rights are sponsored by the democratic party.
ReplyDeleteCurbing freedom of speech in the name of stopping fake news.
Taking away the right to bear arms in the name of public safety.
Voter registration doesn't tell the real story BO, elections do. Since Trump's Norco win in 2016, Dems have won all countywide races (Executive, Council, Judges, Congress, Governor, Senate, Controller, Governor, with 2 very close exceptions...Peg Ferraro and Megan McCarthy. Norco still leans blue Lehigh is now solid Dem. If a sane moderate like Klobachar is the Dem nominee I suspect Trump will lose both counties.
ReplyDeleteThe Democratic Party has gone toooooooo far Left. With legal rights and health insurance to illegal immigrants, live birth abortions, health insurance for all, sanctuary cities and lastly their ever increasing push to deny Trump the presidency. Now Bloomberg and Clinton in the news. Bloomberg has better if elected have a secret service agent in his bedroom to insure he does not commit suicide. Bloomberg will try to eliminate the second amendment. If Bernie gets the vote, then were in real trouble. Amy Klobuchar is the only moderate that I would consider voting for President. If anyone else is selected, then Trump another 4 years. The silent majority is ready to rise again.
ReplyDeleteHe is a threat to democracy, and the largest problem facing this nation. If you believe in the Bill of Rights and the Constitution, Trump must go. If you want a banana republic dictator, vote Trump.
ReplyDeleteHow is Trump a threat. Every Demo says he must go, but we get no FACTS. You would rather have Sanders as President. I think not
Democrats make CLAIMS. Facts in proof not required. Anyway, Bernie left out the big one, Trump the racist.
ReplyDeleteOur party based primary system and the high costs of campaigning have created a monster that favors the ideological extremes in both parties. Many of us believe that none of them represent out beliefs and interests and we therefore vote against someone as the lesser of evils rather than strongly support anyone. The right wing Republicans at all levels do a far better job of demonizing their opponents whether they be Democrats or moderate Republicans. The left wing Democrats on the other hand often offer confusing proposals that make little sense to many citizens who will ultimately bear the costs of their ideas. Short of either party moving to a more centrist position to try to win in general elections, or perhaps even more unlikely that a new political organization is formed that caters to reasonable solutions of governing and can also raise campaign funding, the political horror that many of us are currently experiencing is not going to change anytime soon.
ReplyDelete"What Americans make, The Democrats (SOCAILIST) want to Take !" No sense in going to work if you are only suppling the man with your $$$ to support those who DON'T WANT TO WORK , WHO SUPPORT CRIMINAL ACTIONS , KILL THE UNBORN ,DISOBEY OUR LAWS AND CONSTITUTION. STAY HOME AMERICA !
ReplyDeletethe New democratic party has gotten sucked down the rabbit hole of endless identity politics. NorCo voters are too astute to follow them
ReplyDeleteI think its mostly about demographics Bernie. What you are seeing is simply a result of the 33/78 connection in January 2002 making Bushkill, Upper & Lower Nazareth, Forks, Palmer and Tatamy more commuter friendly for NY/NJ jobs and the resulting influx/migration of high income earners and new housing boom in those townships over the past 15 years.
ReplyDeleteIt's a process of sociological self sorting - people gravitating towards places and people they're comfortable with and historically, white suburban voters are Republican, hence the spike in numbers.
While the party registration #'s are certainly interesting and potentially good news for Republicans, the flip side of the coin is that suburban, college educated voters, especially female are trending away from the Republican party over the past decade.
Interesting perspective.
ReplyDelete9:58, I will do a separate post, laden with facts, on why Trump is a danger to our Constitution and Bill of Rights. You will, of course, dismiss them. And I would take ANY of the Dem candidates or R candidates over him.
ReplyDeleteyes, but unlike the Ds the Rs will never cross vote they will stick with the R even if she is named Sarah Paylin
ReplyDeleteI believe 1:27 may be right. Plus, NorCo Dem party leadership is terrible.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely correct statement, NORCO DEMS is being run into the ground by some really disturbing leadership, Look at this group and what they stand for and you can see why i became a Republican who will vote for a great D when i see one and ignore most things both party chairs have to say
Lehigh will turn soon ---Armstrong will see to that.
ReplyDeleteBernie said he would vote for anybody but TRRUMP--EVEN THE COMMUNISt
ReplyDeleteI wonder if in-migrating population to Northampton is made up of more older/white suburban and rural population while the corresponding increase of in-migrating population in Lehigh County is dominated by younger/minority population moving to Allentown?
ReplyDeleteTransplants to Pennsylvania from New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, etc. are escaping high taxes, higher fees, expensive homes and apartments, higher crimes. All the result of Democrat administration.. They also like the fact Pennsylvania is one of the few states remaining that doesn’t tax pensions.
ReplyDeleteI detest Trump.
ReplyDeleteI detest the Democrats even more.
I think your assumption is correct Bernie. No sense trying to deny the truth of the matter. I am an independent..left leaning liberal but I see the writing on the wall very clearly. I consider myself a minority at this point and unfortunately on the wrong side of the tyranny of the majority.
ReplyDeleteIF Bernie Sanders is screwed out of the nomination (again), a great deal of his supporters will either NOT vote, or vote for a Republican just to get back at the Democrats. This belief should not be ignored. Bernie has the most dedicated followers of all Democrat candidates.
ReplyDeleteEither way, Trump will be extremely difficult to beat without some sort of cheating, or a REAL crime he commits.
DEMS--are anti america
ReplyDeleteI hate to see all this hate just because of a party registration. I Would agree the extremes of both arties have created fringe candidates that appeal to the super base voter. It would appear more common sense candidates get pushed out. In Northampton County the shrill screamers like Zirinski are now the preferred democrats. Left leaning moderates are far and few between.
ReplyDelete2:59- I respect your comment. but, what is “extreme” about the Republican Candidate for President? Seriously.
ReplyDeleteParty has never exclusively determined Northampton County elections. The election wins by Republicans in heavily Democrat areas are myriad. The interesting phenom post-1992 has been formerly strong R performing districts do swing when a Democrat has a compelling message. Bethlehem's 14th ward; College Hill in Easton, Hanover twsp 1; several palmer and forks now vote D in many elections. Lehigh the story is more profound as Republican county wide electoral hegemony has been ended by new voters in Allentown, Fountain Hill, Catty and Whitehall. The short of it: Candidates count. Campaigns matter.
ReplyDeleteNo more do nothing Democrats will be in any official seats. The true change is coming in 2020 cities, counties, states and the country.
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans will leave outer space for the do nothing dummacrates.
I cannot believe that local elected officials for the most part are crazies from the extremes of their parties. Over the years I have voted for people from both parties. if I think they are serious about their responsibilities. I follow local government. I would like to see more republicans like Cusick and Ferraro and more common sense democrats like Seyfried and Heckman. I have been independent and will always vote the person. It is sad the political parties want to purge themselves of these types of candidates. Local; governments need people who will work hard for solutions not bomb throwers.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.city-journal.org/pennsylvania-democratic-divide
ReplyDeleteInteresting read
Slowly, but surely, we're making America great again!
ReplyDelete2020 will be a unique year. Most reasonable people have had enough of the daily (most times multiple times daily) literally insane rantings and ravings of Crazy Donald. He did accomplish one thing. No one will ever honor any subpoenas or requests from Congress. I guess that makes some people happy. We are living among traitors to our Constitution and people who thumb there nose at the rule of law. Just remember ALL of the things you swallowed from this guy because eventually the tables will turn. Makes one realize that covering things up like the Slate Belt police thing has been made acceptable by this administration .
ReplyDeleteWhat a bunch of hooey!
DeleteTrump is a symptom of the problem The executive branches of government have become all powerful. Whether it is a President or a governor and even city mayors. Any government that has a strong executive branch has become more like a king. Most legislative bodies are weak and ineffectual and roll over for the executive branch. Even happens in our local governments.
ReplyDeleteProject onto others what YOU are guilty of. Common behavior in dirty politics.
ReplyDeleteAfter all is said and done--- TRUMP and the republican will win by a landslide thanks to the dems terrible policy and candidates
ReplyDelete1:41 Trump is far from being the problem--he is draining the swamp little by little and getting the political class to show their true colors
ReplyDelete10:52 - will, he’s putting a scare into all the corrupt FBI and CIA operatives! Also, those members of Congress who received various paybacks from monies sent to foreign nations. Joe Biden’s not the only politician with things to hide.
ReplyDeleteBetter red than dead(killed by a socialist)
ReplyDeleteNeed whole picture here. What is 3rd party and I registration? I suspect, some people are leaving the two party system in favor of Independence.
ReplyDeleteThis election will be close and one thing is for sure A LOT of people are going to be losing their minds next Winter.
ReplyDeleteThe overconfidence, assumptions and simple wish-casting shown above are mind blowing.
Outside of the purely political theater that was the impeachment which did little to move the needle in terms of peoples opinion of either party absolutely nothing has changed. The economy was good in 2018, it wasn't bad in 2016 either, but two entirely different outcomes in those elections.
Dems were smug and completely misdirected in 2016, they easily panic and over react to nearly every press release or story on a day to day basis and have the focus of a bored 3rd grader with ADHD. Republicans do tend to stay on message and brand almost to a fault and have not yet strayed from it, despite multiple beat downs in ANY election since 2017 in situational competitive environments, despite good economic conditions. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida are razor thin margins for both parties that will decide 2020.
People need to brace themselves.