Local Government TV

Thursday, February 29, 2024

What Are the Lehigh Valley's Natural Hazards?

Earlier this week, I told you that both Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management agencies are in the process of updating the Lehigh  Valley Hazard Mitigation Plan Hazards. It identifies both natural and man-made hazards. Below is a listing of the natural hazards considered here in thye Lehigh Valley, which include a summary of past occurrences and an estimate of the likelihood of recurrence.  I'll list man-made hazards on Friday. 

Drought: "Predicting the frequency of droughts is challenging. However, droughts appear to be cyclical, implying they'll reoccur in the future. In fact, periodic droughts are commonplace in almost all U.S. climates."

Earthquake: "Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, as well as previous historical earthquake events, the probability of occurrence for earthquake events in the Lehigh Valley is considered Unlikely (less than 1% annual probability), as defined in the Methodology Section."

Extreme temperature: "The highest temperature ever recorded in the region was 105°F on the 4th of July weekend in 1966, while the lowest temperature ever recorded was -15°F on January 21, 1994. Since 1996, the Lehigh Valley was subject to more than 196 extreme temperature events. ... Over the 27 years of record keeping of extreme temperature events (1996-2023), there have been 196 recorded events, an average of 7.25 events per year. In the last 10 years, 2013 – 2023, there has been an extreme temperature event in 7 of the 10 years. As such, the probability that the Lehigh Valley will experience an extreme temperature event in any given year is Highly Likely."

Flood, Flash Flood, Ice Jam: "The Lehigh Valley has a long history of flooding events. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Events Database, the Lehigh Valley experienced 235 flood events between January 1, 1996, and March 31, 2023. These floods resulted in one death, four injuries, an estimated $145.75 million in property damages, and approximately $2 million in crop damages. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for flood events in the Lehigh Valley is considered Highly Likely with a higher than 90% probability of annual occurrences as defined in the Methodology Section."

Hailstorm: "Hailstorms can occur as a routine part of severe weather in the Lehigh Valley. The potential for hail exists throughout the Lehigh Valley, with a few minor incidents recorded each year. ... Based on historical occurrences of hailstorm events retrieved from NCEI, the probability of occurrence for hailstorm events in the Lehigh Valley is considered Highly Likely, greater than 90% annual probability as defined in the Methodology Section."

Invasive Species: "Invasive species have been entering the Lehigh Valley for quite some time, though not all occurrences have required government action. Specific occurrences and quantified losses were not identified for these invasive species in the Lehigh Valley. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for invasive species impacting the Lehigh Valley is considered ‘highly likely’ (higher than 90% probability) as defined in the Methodology Section."

Landslide: "Pennsylvania has frequently been a hotspot for significant landslide occurrences due to its unique blend of a humid climate, locally intense topography, and the varied erosion and weathering characteristics of its sedimentary rocks. Additionally, human endeavors, including commercial, residential, and industrial development, along with transportation and mining projects, often intensify the susceptibility to landslides. ... From the perspective of the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies, the probability of landslides occurring in the Lehigh Valley is categorized as 'unlikely'."

Lightning Strikes: "Defined as a lightning strike resulting in death, injury, or damage to property or crops, a lightning "event" has specific consequences. From 1993 to 2023, the Lehigh Valley registered 86 such events, with Northampton County accounting for 60 and Lehigh County for 26, as documented by NOAA-NCEI. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for lightning strike events is considered ‘highly likely’ as defined in the Methodology Section."

Pandemic and Infectious Disease: Includes data concerning incidence of COVID-19, influenza, West Nile virus and lyme disease. "Influenza is among the most common and recognizable diseases within the Lehigh Valley, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and the U.S. as a whole. Influenza virus infections are detected year round in the U.S., although cases typically increase during “flu season” in the fall and winter months. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies’ operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for pandemic and infectious disease events in the Lehigh Valley is considered ‘likely’ as defined in the Methodology Section."

Radon Exposure: The LV is in a "Zone 1" radon zone, "which means that the average indoor radon levels are likely to exceed 4 pCi/L (picocuries per liter). The EPA recommends that all homeowners who have radon concentrations of 4 pCi/L or greater take remedial actions to reduce the presence of radon. ... Radon is a constant threat throughout the Lehigh Valley. As a naturally occurring element, radon has been present in the ground across the Lehigh Valley since long before the area was settled. Overall, Pennsylvania is an area with historically high radon levels due to shear fault zones in the state that contain large amounts of uranium which eventually decays into radon. ... Radon exposure is inevitable given present soil, geologic, and geomorphic factors across Pennsylvania. In the future, the overall likelihood of radon exposure in the Lehigh Valley will remain high."

Subsidence/Sinkholes: "The Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources’ Sinkhole Inventory Online Database, along with the 2023 Pennsylvania State Hazard Mitigation Plan, recorded 470 sinkholes in Lehigh County and 677 in Northampton County between 2010 and 2013. Additionally, local data from the Lehigh and Northampton County Knowledge Center databases for 2012 and 2017 indicate 101 sinkhole incidents across 23 municipalities. Bethlehem Township experienced the highest number of sinkholes (28), followed by Palmer Township (19), Easton (12), Hanover Township in Northampton County (6), and Lower Saucon Township (5). ... . From the perspective of the Emergency Management Agencies of Lehigh and Northampton Counties, the likelihood of subsidence and sinkhole incidents in the Lehigh Valley is categorized as 'likely,' in accordance with the definition provided in the Methodology Section." 

Wildfire: "The Pennsylvania 2023 State Hazard Mitigation Plan notes reported wildfires and acres burned in the Lehigh Valley between 1992 and 2015. 122 wildfires in Lehigh County burned over 313 acres, while 87 wildfires in Northampton County burned more than 168 acres. 151 Wildfire events that were recorded in the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Events ... with one death reported. In addition, Lehigh and Northampton County Knowledge Center databases identified 67 brushfires from 2012 to 2017. Information regarding damages, injuries or deaths was not available. ... Based on the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies operational viewpoint, the probability of occurrence for wildfire events in the Lehigh Valley is considered ‘possible’ as defined in the Methodology Section.

Windstorm/Tornado: "Data from the NCEI Storm Events Database reveals a notable increase in tornado occurrences over recent decades. Comparing two periods, from 1950 to 1995, a span of 46 years, there were 493 tornadoes recorded. In contrast, a shorter period from 1996 to 2021, lasting only 26 years, saw a similar number of tornadoes at 497. This trend appears to be more pronounced regionally and might partly be attributed to advancements in reporting techniques. According to a 2018 report by the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, the overall frequency of tornadoes across the United States has been relatively steady since 1950, suggesting that the observed increase could be linked to more sophisticated and thorough reporting methods. ... From the perspective of the Lehigh and Northampton County Emergency Management Agencies, the probability of windstorm and tornado events occurring in the Lehigh Valley is categorized as 'possible,' as outlined in the Methodology Section. This classification underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparedness in the face of these natural phenomena."

Winter Storm: "Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Information reveal that between 1993 and 2023, Lehigh County encountered 256 winter storm events, while Northampton County faced 257. These events led to property damages of approximately $3.8 million in Lehigh County and $2.25 million in Northampton County. ... . Based on assessments by the Emergency Management Agencies of both Lehigh and Northampton counties, the probability of winter storm events occurring in the Lehigh Valley is classified as 'likely'."

18 comments:

  1. I would suggest that the resolution queen from Easton completely abandon her quest for more legislative dole. It would then be free to handle the duties of both the lehigh and northamption offices of emergency management. Surly she could conjure up magical resolutions destined to eliminate cold air, floods and mudslides. And don't forget that hot air is her specialty.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sink holes are a huge problem in the Tatamy, Stockertown, Palmer, Upper Nazareth area and the LVPC keeps approving building warehouses and residential developments setting off more events. in 2021, Tatamy Road was closed for months when massive sinkholes around the Amazon warehouse destabilized the road. In 2022, the bridge on Hollo Road had to be repaired whent huge sink holes opened up in the creek. In 2023, Palmer suffered millions in damage when sink holes opened up under stormwater pipes. A bridge on Route 33 is currently undergoing repair for soil subsidence.

    And that's just the effects on public infrastructure. Private landowners have to deal with these things in their backyards all the time. Why does the LVPC keep approving building on sinkhole fields?

    ReplyDelete
  3. " the LVPC keeps approving building warehouses and residential developments setting off more events. in 2021, "

    Sinkholes are definitely a problem, and warehouses by themselves could probably be classified as hazards. But the LVPC does not "approve" these projects. That is up to the municipality. It does provide review letters to determine consistency with overall planning, but its opinions (on those rare occasions when one is offered) have no teeth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These projects go before LVPC and the board votes on them. The municipality may have final approval but they follow LVPCs recommendation.

      LVPC approved the development at Tatamy Farms. If you would like to see some photos of sink holes in that area let me know

      Delete
    2. Most of what you reference around Tatamy is in Palmer Township. Because Palmer has its own Subdivision and Land Development Ordinance, they have approval of developments, not LVPC. Pennsylvania is a municipal control state.

      Delete
  4. "The highest temperature ever recorded in the region was 105°F on the 4th of July weekend in 1966,


    Question. If we are experiencing global warming why has this record not been broken in 60 years? Just asking

    ReplyDelete
  5. 8:19AM ---

    Global warming isn't about whether record high temperatures in one region are exceeded, it's about the average air and ocean temperature rise worldwide due to the increase in CO2, Methane and other greenhouse gasses since the industrial revolution.

    It's like having a fever of 101 degrees (only a 2-3% increase), when that happens you're sick right? Well, that is exactly what's happening with the planet... the delicate balance of the planet is disrupted, which leads to more extreme climatic events (worse flooding, drought, hurricanes, etc)

    We've been burning millions of years of sequestered carbon in the last 100 years ... that's BIG problem.

    ReplyDelete
  6. tRump cult members are a bigly natural hazard!

    ReplyDelete
  7. hmmmm, I believe the civil engineer & developer of a given property have to take the possibility of sink holes into account when a piece of land is developed. A large portion of the most developed areas of the Lehigh Valley are prone to sinkholes... its called carbonate geology. Ever see those Limestone quarries scattered throughout the area?

    ReplyDelete
  8. 9:43 Global warming isn't about whether record high temperatures in one region are exceeded, it's about the average air and ocean temperature rise worldwide due to the increase in CO2

    Interesting you brought up ocean temp. I have been going to Ocean City MD for 30yrs and the lifeguards always put the daily ocean temp on their stands. For 30yrs it's always 73-75 degrees. If the ocean is warming why is it not going up in 30yrs? Secondly, If it will eventually rise when? I worry every year the MD coast ocean will be bubbling and ruin my vacation.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hey where is the I can be shot by a redneck gun owner?
    Or any gun owner, especially the police?

    ReplyDelete
  10. NYattorney general suing meet industry due to hazard of methane gas! Says no one wants to eat beef. I know off topic but seriously. How many people don't want to eat beef because of methane gas. The world's gone bonkers and this woman is a piece of work

    ReplyDelete
  11. 1:07

    Another example of looking at a small piece of data, not the entire dataset.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Sultana is a hazard.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Tara Zrinski is a natural disaster

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don’t forget her pal Sultana

      Delete
  14. Another example of looking at a small piece of data, not the entire dataset.

    2:34 30 years worth of data is a small piece


    ReplyDelete

You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.