Local Government TV

Thursday, May 18, 2023

NorCo Election Analysis - A Tale of Two Cities

Easton and Bethlehem are Northampton County's only two cities. They are located in close proximity to each other. Easton has a slightly lower income, but Bethlehem has a slightly higher poverty rate. Easton has a slightly more diverse population, but both cities are far more diversified than the rest of the county. Both are Democratic strongholds. Despite these similarities, they voted a lot differently on Tuesday.  

Bethlehem - In the DA race, challenger Steve Baratta completely smoked Houck, 2,654 to 1,353, He took every single precinct, and walked away with 67% of the Democratic vote. But in the judicial race, Democrat Brian Panella barely squeaked by Republican Nancy Aaroe. He pulled in 1,961 votes to 1,890 for Aaroe, giving him a bare majority of 51%. In the Controller's race, Tara Zrinski defeated Nadeem Qayuum, 2422 to 1416,in the Democratic primary. She captured 63% of the vote. But interestingly, Qayuum won in the poorer precincts. 

Easton - It was completely different in Easton. In the DA race, Houck defeated Baratta, 1135 to 1079, capturing 51.3% of the vote. It was no blowout, but a win's a win. In the judicial race, Panella destroyed Aaroe, 1,374 votes to 659, with 68% of the vote. And in the Controller's race, Qayuum beat Zrinski, 1369 to 746, getting 62% of the vote. 

Why did Qayuum win in Easton? Of course, that's where where he lives and campaigned the hardest. Buy why did he also win in the poorer sections of Bethlehem (Wards 1N, 1S, 2-5, 16 & 17) while getting trounced elsewhere?

Why did Panella do so poorly in Bethlehem compared to Easton? How could Houck get demolished in Bethlehem yet win in Easton?  These are my guesses. 

First, just as the Morganelli mafia was after Houck, I suspect they wanted to embarrass Panella as well.  

Second, Easton is less impressed by money than Bethlehem. Easton rejected a City Council candidate who raised three times as much money as all other city council candidates combined.  So the fact that Baratta raised twice as much money as Houck meant nothing in Easton. 

Third, Houck and Panella got help in Easton from guys like top vote getter Frank Pintabone. Bethlehem's elected officials are too busy looking at themselves in the mirror to be much use to anyone. 

Fourth, in Easton, nobody gives a shit about LGBTQ?&# or plastic straws. I think there's a difference between actual working poor and the faux liberals, most of them the white well-heeled females who make up Zrinski's base. They call themselves allies but had no problem making classist and xenophobic comments about Qayuum. The working poor are more interested in putting food on the table than listening to a tirade against plastic straws or sludge.  But in the more foo foo sections of the Christmas City, where people drive hybrids and want back yard chickens so they can pretend they're helping the planet, someone like Tara is just right.  

Why do you think there was such a difference between the voting in Bethlehem and Easton.?  I threw out my guesses, but I'm very interested in what you think. 

16 comments:

  1. Easton voted in public servants with roots in the city. I’m happy to see our city reject developer and Republican funded Greene.

    Panella spent quite a bit of time campaigning here as well. I think that helped grow his supporter base. Who doesn’t like that guy?

    City council race was right across the board. Pintabone and Rose seemed to dominate the precinct lists. Good to have some young people & first timers on council. Hope to see them all come together and do great work for years to come.

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  2. Commander Terra has used the bullhorn and organizing tactics from "Rules for Radicals" masterfully and it triggers the unwoke boomer incels like Bern who claim to be allies of Gaia by way of a few bike rides.

    Plastic straws are an environmental nightmare and it took bravery and vision to stand up for the creatures who have no voice like the tiny bog turtle Bernie would have gleefully seen drown in the runoff of effluent smeared on fields by scatalogical minded terrorists

    BLU badger

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  3. i think your assessment is right on the mark. Laird won the city council majority vote in Bethlehem because of those very left wing liberals. In Easton, Callahan would have smoked Laird for top vote getter. Republicans may help overcome that bias in the general election because Callahan is a traditional moderate dem that appeals to the blue collar working class voter & normal business leaders.

    Reynolds must be neutralized at the ballot box for city council in November & Laird must be exposed as his puppet lib!!

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  4. Callahan came in 3rd and barely. He should have come in first but he is still perceived as angry and bitter. He needs to be critical without being mean-spirited. Laird's views are to the left of mine but I Like her knowledge of city issues and her willingness to listen. I do not consider her a rubber stamp at all. Michael Colon has proven to be a disappointment because, quite frankly, he has no spine. He absolutely should have insisted that Bethlehem assert itself in the landfill dispute. His failure there is simply indefensible.

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  5. Tara will be history in next campaign. She ran against a newcomer with no cult followers and still was beaten in Easton.Her aspirations to succeed Boscola are already being laughed at because she will soundly lose to Cusick before she makes another run at her pipedream.


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  6. "Fourth, in Easton, nobody gives a shit about LGBTQ?&# or plastic straws. I think there's a difference between actual working poor and the faux liberals, most of them the white well-heeled females who make up Zrinski's base."

    Good observation. If those are your concerns, then you don't have enough to worry about and must satisfy yourself by pretending to care for other things. Housing, food, job/income, and health care are all granted and untouchable in your life.

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  7. I’m a moderate Democrat and will vote for Cusick. Zrinski is part of the problem the Democratic Party faces in the future.Republican Party not much better their far right even worse

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  8. Frankly, am I the only one who got multiple flyers in the mail from Baratta and none from Houck?!? I voted Houck, but the fact is Baratta, while wrong, was fighting for the win/vote.

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  9. Max Rosenblum use to hand out a ticket with ten suggested votes. Never understood why, but his practice was followed by everyone else. The voter identifies with several candidates, figures the rest must be equally ok and follows through. Figure that in every election Senator Boscola would endorse a candidate and then another one. They all did poorly. If she suggested a ticket, the endorsement would work. People need to associate. In this election there were tickets promoted by officeholders and candidates. It works. Use to do it in Bethlehem, not any more.

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  10. Tom from Emmaus Not Santo PalMay 18, 2023 at 10:45 PM

    Bernie,

    Maybe I am naïve, but you need to fill me in here. Why would Morganelli and his gang want to embarrass a popular and on the rise candidate, Panella? Boggles my mind. I can find the ends for that.

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  11. I do not know his motives. You'll have to ask him.

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  12. Bernie, Bethlehem is so far left its laughable. The top vote getter was a women who in the debate read off Reynolds que cards. The sitting President of City Council Colon just lost to her! The far left has taken over Bethlehem. Callahan almost lost to Dee. That is laughable. Her only claim to fame is she is a crazy ass nut women! Pa. State House Rep Jennie McNeill can't even stand her. She has absolutely nothing to do with Bethlehem and just recently moved there, but hey she's a women, give me a break!

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  13. I think you’re overlooking the simplest explanation for the Controller race. In a low turnout, off year municipal primary, you go where the voters are. Zrinski focused on winning, building a lead where more people vote. Qayyum didn’t seemingly target anywhere strategically and tried to bite off more than he could chew. If one candidate is largely ignoring an area and the other isn’t, it’s no surprise that the later wins that area.

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  14. The real campaign will demonstrate that Zyrinski has done little, if nothing, to offer
    bills, amendments, or resolutions that actually pertain to County responsibility, while enamoring her to conservationists and plastic haters. She rarely inputs inside the real boundaries for county governance. Cusick knows and understands the Home Rule Charter, the Rules of Order, and how to navigate budget management. He has done it for years in an objective and relevant manner.
    Tara will be toast in the fall.

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  15. Anon: May 19, 2023 at 12:05 AM (a/k/a Bryan)

    You are back in, stop whining. Even if you got fewer votes this year than 2 years ago when you lost. And stop criticizing Celeste, she helped you win after all.

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  16. Dee is a nasty loser…

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