What I know:
I know that a Halloween party at one local college led to 34 Covid-19 infections.
A sorority decorating party at another local college led to a spike and campus-wide lockdown.
What I guess:
1) The November 3 election, which brought lots of people close together, had to result in some infections. The high turnout made it extremely difficult to practice social distancing. Though most voters wore masks, some refused.
2) Halloween, Most communities had trick-or-treat, and there were numerous parties.
I know the likelihood of contagion is very small at places that really practice social distancing and enforce mask mandates. I believe there has been just one new case at the courthouse, where masking and social distancing is taken very seriously. I believe that true of most businesses as well. Unfortunately, at some places like my gym, there are customers who remove their mask or wear it around their neck or chin. This does no one any good, but I have no idea whether gyms really are a source of community spread because responses provided to the state are lacking.
Updated 8:40 am: Interestingly, I've just realized that Wall Street Journal (can't get past paywall) is asking the same question I am. My story focuses on Pa,, while WSJ is international. The big unknown is WHERE Covid is spreading. Is it bars? Parties? Nursing homes? Groceries?
You stated that you were going to make some "educated guesses" about the coronavirus. Honestly Bernie, I don't know if you are an infectious disease expert or have other qualifications but if you do please let us know what they are - since it is important to know what "education" factors into your opinion.
ReplyDeleteThe sad truth is that, at least in Pennsylvania, COVID continues to kill far more nursing home residents than people in the general population. Per the DoH, to date more than 65% of PA deaths have been nursing home residents. One has to presume that nursing home protocols (masks, sanitation, social distancing) should be better than in the general population.
ReplyDeleteNursing home residents make up only 0.6% of the PA population but have suffered 11.3% of all infections. And, almost one in thirteen nursing home residents has died from COVID.
The reality is that, regardless of your political beliefs, you must admit that no one has a grip on how to lessen the spread of the disease without severely violating our Constitutional rights.
Because most people are stupid. The stupid anti-science and anti-intellectual conspiracy theorists are all the rage.
ReplyDelete12:16, I was very clear regarding what I know and what I guess. We are being forced to guess bc your so-called experts have done a shitty job determining how this is spread, which you'd think they'd want to know.
ReplyDeleteHow many rallies did Trump hold in PA? How many of his flag waving minions gathered together leading up to the election? Most refused to wear masks at these events.
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'.
Personally, I think the summer months, being outside, lulled everyone into a false sense of security. COVID is a close cousin of the flu and the colder months is it's busy season. The habits that we had been diligently practicing last March/April got forgotten over the summer.
ReplyDeleteI now know 3 people personally who have dealt with it, all relatively young-ish and somewhat physically fit-ish and all 3 have said COVID kicked their asses. One still says they can't really taste anything 4 months after the fact.
Over the weekend, our extended family made the decision to skip the big Thanksgiving dinner and will just do a big online Zoom meeting with everyone for desert and drinks later in the evening. Feel bad for the grandparents, but they understand its for the best.
You don’t have to look far to understand why it’s spreading. Local dollar store, young man check-out clerk with the mask under his chin. You’re too cool for the mask, you rebel. Automotive supply store, one employee with the mask below his nose, one employee with no mask. Stupid governor- can’t make me wear a mask. Neighbors have a gathering, it’s ok- we’re outdoors-and we’re teachers so we know what’s safe. And airlines will book the middle seats? Governors have taken the blame for trying to keep the spread down. Most adults don’t know a public health department exists or what it does, since Civics was removed from curriculums in the mid-seventies.
ReplyDeleteFair post. One of my doctors travels regularly in Asia and says masks are probably not effective against animal-to-human viruses, and the West will simply have to live with these viruses, as Asians already have for years. Wet markets and unsecured bio labs were and will continue to be the culprits. Viruses will be around and we have to manage our medical system responses. That's where flattening the curve came from. Reporting big, scary numbers distracts from our management of the curve - which was the idea in the first place, and one we learned from Asia. Relax, stay open, but radically protect our older citizens whom we know share a much higher risk of death.
ReplyDeleteHow many confirmed cases for our NORCO poll workers?
ReplyDeleteThat will tell you if the election was a "super spreader" event
They should all be offered free Covid tests
11:05, We really don't know how the virus originated, and any contention that it come from an unsecured bio lab in the US or China is pure conjecture.
ReplyDelete"Stupid governor- can’t make me wear a mask."
ReplyDeleteI get your frustration, although the virus seems to be spreading across the globe, regardless of mask practices. More interestingly, you mention a governor who was caught on a hot mike joking about wearing masks for political effect. I save my ire for the obese. They cost us all money and stress a hospital system that doesn't need additional stress right now.
Protect yourself. Let those who won't be careful infect each other, if they must.
ReplyDelete