In Texas, turnout has actually exceeded the county in 2016. Several other states are close. But Pennsylvania's a wee bit more anemic, at 39.3% of the 2016 total. The Keystone State has received 2,404,354 of 3,097,741 requested ballots, broken down as follows: Democrats - 1,591,048 (66.2%); Republicans - 552,627 (23%); and Others - 260,679 (10.8%).
2016 was a turnout election, and Republicans won it. Democratic turnout statewide was 69.4% but Republicans voted at an amazing 90%. Only 18.1% of independents bothered to vote. The overall turnout was 70.1%.
Turnout on Tuesday is likely to be even greater. But the only way Democrats win is if they turn out as much as the Republicans. Even if turnout is 85%, Biden will lose if Republicans come in at 90% again.
Since Republicans turned out at 90% for Trump in his first run, and since they know he is under a heavy attack, I will assume that 90% of all registered Republicans will turn out again. That's 3,188,038 voters. I assume 90% will vote for Trump. That's 2,869,234 votes.
What about the independents? I believe they will show in the same weak fashion they did in 2016. That amounts to 163,986 votes. The Libertarian candidate was the heaviest draw in 2016, sucking up 67% of their votes. It that happens again, it means only 54,115 votes will be in play. There is conflicting evidence about the, In Iowa, they are breaking for Trump. In Florida, they are breaking for Biden. My assumption is they will break slightly for Biden because the Libertarian will be getting most of the votes that might otherwise go to Trump. Let's say 55%, or 29,763 votes.
As for Democrats, they need to turn out. If there is a 90% GOP turnout again it will be very tough. , , so I will assume 85% voters, more than in 2016. That's 3,594,784 Dems. Let's say 85% vote for Biden. That's 3,055,567 votes. Not enough. He needs 87%.
What about the independents? I believe they will show in the same weak fashion they did in 2016. That amounts to 163,986 votes. The Libertarian candidate was the heaviest draw in 2016, sucking up 67% of their votes. It that happens again, it means only 54,115 votes will be in play. There is conflicting evidence about the, In Iowa, they are breaking for Trump. In Florida, they are breaking for Biden. My assumption is they will break slightly for Biden because the Libertarian will be getting most of the votes that might otherwise go to Trump. Let's say 55%, or 29,763 votes.
In the end, Biden will have the following votes if 86% of Dems show: Democrats - 3,091,514; Republicans - 318,804; Independents - 29,763. That's 3,404,134 votes.
Trump will have the following votes: Democrats - 507,499; Republicans - 2,869,234; Independents - 24,352. That's 3,401.085.
My tabulations are based purely on registration statistics and some percentage assumptions. I should note that there was a blue wave among Dems in Pa in 2017 and 2018. Trump has alienated women, seniors and minorities. He has caused division within his own party.
Still, for Biden to win in this battleground state. Democrats need to show up. Philly Democrats especially. They need to vote for Biden. More Republicans need to vote against Trump.
12 comments:
I find it funny you are saying Trump supporters are getting hostile which means they are worried but if you looked across the news, cities are boarding up their businesses because of the pending election. Hmmmm.....I wonder which side has been destroying cities, looting and burning businesses down lately? Find a new slant Bernie.
I think your assumptions wrong. Trump barely won PA in 2016 and that's only because Democrats turned away from Hillary Clinton. I believe there are Republicans who will turn from Trump after seeing what nearly 4 years of him have wrought upon the nation. Democrats have been given a better candidate than Clinton. Most people want normalcy, dignity, and sanity back in the White House.
My advice to voters, DO NOT be influenced by Exit Polls, Early Result Totals and other predictions spewed out by the news media throughout the day tomorrow. If you intended to vote in person tomorrow, do it! As we have clearly seen, talking heads on television are often not being truthful.
I anticipate all kinds of propaganda throughout the day, from phony interviews, deceiving images, to devious attempts to scare voters from leaving their homes to go to the polls. Please, just go and vote.
i have yet to meet an ardent Biden supporter. Yes, there is a strong anti-Trump movement, but the positive support for Trump is a historical moment. We will see which will prevail.
"I find it funny you are saying Trump supporters are getting hostile which means they are worried but if you looked across the news, cities are boarding up their businesses because of the pending election. Hmmmm.....I wonder which side has been destroying cities, looting and burning businesses down lately? Find a new slant Bernie."
It is true that some people have taken advantage of peaceful protests to engage in violence, but Antifa are not Democrats and support no one. Trump supporters yesterday blocked a bridge into NYC as well as a thruway in NJ. They disrupted a rally in Nazareth and blocked a Biden bus in Texas. They prance around with guns at their events for some odd reason. So yes, Trump supporters are getting hostile.
"I think your assumptions wrong. Trump barely won PA in 2016 and that's only because Democrats turned away from Hillary Clinton. I believe there are Republicans who will turn from Trump after seeing what nearly 4 years of him have wrought upon the nation. Democrats have been given a better candidate than Clinton. Most people want normalcy, dignity, and sanity back in the White House."
I know I do. I agree that Clinton was very unlikable. Biden is hardly the best we could do, but is at least a likable person and wants to bring people together. But if the GOP votes at 90%, Dems are going to have to vote at 86% to win.
Tomorrow, I will NOT be voting for militant white christian nationalism. Period.
Bernie you think Republicans are worried, Washington DC democrats local Democratic Party members should really be worried, why newspapers like the one in Pittsburgh endorses a Republican candidate Trump, Almost every law enforcement organization in America endorses Trump (Joe name one, can’t), Organize religions endorse trump, (Franklin Graham leads a prayer for Trump), (Supporting Israel (it’s in the Bible) gives him massive Jewish support, Latino and the Black community will support Trump more than reported). Come on man.
Historic turnout numbers are always a bad sign for Republicans. He won the electoral college because of a grand total of 100,000 voters across 4 states, FL, MI, PA & WI.
There is no reason for Republicans to be optimistic about their chances tomorrow. Trump has lost more voters than he has gained since 2016 - women, suburban and college educated. He has consistently played to his base of white, rural, & less educated and that base is nowhere near big enough to carry a national election.
He drew an inside straight in 2016 carrying those 4 states. Now he has to deal with a map that includes those 4 competitive states, plus Arizona & North Carolina, maybe even Iowa and Texas too.
That said - even if Trump keeps, PA, FL, IA, TX and NC, he doesnt have a path to 270 Electoral College votes when Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin flip. If North Carolina or Florida go Biden tomorrow night, it will signal a hellacious blood bath result for Republicans.
Many democratic feel that the Party has left them for big wall street money and far far left ideals. Many labor unions have gone republician with the exception of the teachers union (against the voucher program). Race will be tight.
"The Libertarian candidate" has a name...Jo Anne Jorgensen. She's a professor at Clemson University and a solid choice for those of us who cannot support either the D or R. Unfortunately the media has decided to completely blackout her candidacy because they blame third party voters for Trump winning in 2016.
I remember listening and watching a baseball game, Dodgers and Reds, broadcast by one of my favorite broadcasters Vin Sculley with Hall of famer Joe Morgan who recently passed. Joe Morgan was constantly citing statistics, inning after inning, the batter who advanced the runner with two outs in the eighth inning under a full moon etc. etc. etc. This went on until the seventh inning when Mr. Sculley apparently had heard enough statistics and said in a melodic droll tone, "Statistics are like a lampost to a drunk, while they may provide some support they offer very little illumination". Quote the Raven nevermore.
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