AM LOOKING AT NOTES BECAUSE I WANT TO GET THIS RIGHT. 48.58% TO 47.85%. THAT WAS THE MARGIN IN THE COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA FOUR YEARS AGO. IT UPSET A TREND THAT HAD EXISTED SINCE 1988. OUR STATE, WE WERE PART OF THAT BIG BLUE WALL. DONALD TRUM WAS TO OVERTURN THAT. THE REFLECTION THAT I HAVE ON PENNSYLVANIA LOOKING BACK, AND I DID NOT SEE IT COMING, C-SPAN VIEWERS SHOULD KNOW, AND PROBABLY DO, THAT I WAS NOT AMONG THE VERY FEW WHO SAID THAT TRUMP COULD PULL IT OFF IN PENNSYLVANIA. I DID NOT THINK THAT HE COULD. HILLARY CLINTON DID WHAT TYPICALLY A DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN THE STATE. SUCH WERE HER MARGINS IN PHILADELPHIA AND THE SOUTHEAST, THOSE SUBURBS, ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THAT YOU WOULD HAVE EXPECTED SHE WOULD HAVE WON THE RACE, BUT THE RURAL REBELLION, THE TURNOUT IN AREAS THAT HISTORICALLYN HAD NOT GENERATED THOSE KINDS OF NUMBERS FOR A REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, IS WHAT PROVIDED PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH HIS MARGIN.
WHERE DOES IT STAND NOW? I DO NOT KNOW. THERE ARE SO MANY INTANGIBLES IN THIS RACE AND NOW THE LARGES INTANGIBLE OF ALL EMERGES, WHICH IS A SUPREME COURT NOMINATION IN THE 11TH HOUR OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST. I DO NOT REGARD IT AS A PERSUASION ELECTION FOR AS MUCH TIME AS I HAVE SPENT ON RADIO TALKING ABOUT THOSE VOTERS WHO HAVEN GONE FROM R TO D IN THE PAST, IN THE END, I DO NOT THINK THAT IS WHERE THIS RISK IS DETERMINED. I THINK PEOPLE ARE LOCKED IN. IT IS A TURNOUT ELECTION. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
THERE IS A LOT OF PASSION FOR THE PRESIDENT'S SIDE OF THE LEDGER. I DO NOT KNOW THERE IS SO MUCH PASSION FOR THE MEN. I WOULD SAY THE SAME THING ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE OF THE AISLE. I DO NOT KNOW THAT THERE IS GREAT PASSION FOR JOE BIDEN. I KNOW THERE IS PASSION AGAINST DONALD TRUMP. I KNOW THERE IS PASSION AGAINST THE PERCEPTION OF WHAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS BECOME. I DO NOT SENSE ANIMUS ABOUT JOE BIDEN. I DO NOT MEET PEOPLE WHO DISLIKE JOE BIDEN. THEY JUST DO NOT EXIST. THAT IS DIFFERENT THAN A SITUATION FOUR YEARS AGO.YOU HAVE PASSION IN TERMS OF OPPOSING WHAT THEY THINK THE OTHER SIDE IS. WHO COMES OUT TO VOTE? IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
ONE OTHER THING ABOUT OUR HOME STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA THAT I THINK IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSCORE IS THIS. WE HAD A SIGNIFICANT SUPREME COURT DECISION IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS PAST WEEK WHICH OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE COUNTING OF BALLOTS FOR THREE DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION. ALREADY WE ARE COMING TO TERMS WITH VOTING BY MAIL IN PENNSYLVANIA IN A WAY THAT HAS NOT BEEN PERMITTED PREVIOUSLY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE. WHETHER THE MACHINERY IS READY TO GO TO TABULATE THOSE BALLOTS IS AN OPEN QUESTION. I HOPE SO, BUT NOW THE PROSPECT OF COUNTING THOSE BALLOTS THREE DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION, SO LONG AS THEY ARE POSTMARKED BY 8:00 P.M. TUESDAY NIGHT, MEANS THAT PERHAPS WE DO NOT KNOW WHO WINS THE COMMONWEALTH UNTIL BEYOND NOVEMBER 3. THEREFORE, WE MAY NOT KNOW WHO WINS THE WHITE HOUSE UNTIL AFTER NOVEMBER 3, AND NOT BECAUSE OF FRAUD BUT SOME BELIEVE BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO COUNT THOSE MAIL-IN BALLOTS.
I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL JOE BIDEN RUNS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE, WHICH IS WHERE HE WAS RAISED BEFORE THE FAMILY RELOCATED ON PAPER, HE SEEMS LIKE THE IDEAL CANDIDATE TO BRING BACK INTO THE FOLD THOSE HIGH-SCHOOL EDUCATED, WHITE, WORKING-CLASS VOTERS. HE IS EMBLEMATIC OF THEM. THAT IS AN AREA WHERE DONALD TRUMP DID EXTREMELY WELL. I DO NOT SENSE THAT THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP FOUR YEARS AGO ARE READY TO ABANDON HIM.
IF YOU HANDED ME A MAP OF PENNSYLVANIA'S 67 COUNTIES, I COULD COLOR SHADE IT RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF WHO WINS WHERE. IT WILL BE JOE BIDEN FOR SURE IN PHILADELPHIA, INNER SUBURBS. IT WILL BE JOE BIDEN FOR SURE OUT WEST IN ALLEGHENY COUNTY. THE REST
OF THAT MAP, INCLUDING ERIE, MY HUNCH IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE A SEA OF RED, THE COUNTRY AT LARGE, YOU COULD PRETTY MUCH COLOR-CODE IT AS WELL. IT WILL BE RED EXCEPT FOR URBAN AREAS AND OTHER OUTLYING AREAS THAT ARE BLUE - WE KNOW WHERE THE VOTES ARE COMING FROM. WHAT IS UNKNOWN ARE THE MARGINS. THAT IS WHERE PASSION PLAYS A ROLE
22 comments:
Smerconish is a model rino from the demo cesspool that is lower merion twp. They daytrip to philly ten minutes away to instigate and agitate while retiring in the evenings to their majority white neighborhoods/school districts. A typical "not in my neighborhood" white boy.
Smerconish spent far too many words attempting to differentiate between red and blue areas.
Let me be more concise.
In red areas, people fly the American flag and respect cops.
In blue areas people burn the American flag and assault cops.
If you’re not sure with which color you identify, use that as your litmus test.
Oh won't the "debates" be interesting ?
The debates ought to be interesting eh???
Excellent analysis! There are very few people who have not made up their minds on the candidates. I also believe that many people are disillusioned by the entire national situation in 2020. Many people will therefore be more prone to vote against someone rather than for someone. Now the remaining question is who will actually make the effort to vote?
@6:43 " In red areas, people fly the American flag and respect cops. - In blue areas people burn the American flag and assault cops." Such a simple world you live in isn't it?
I find it borderline hilarious to drive thru rural areas with all of these 'Support the Police" signs on their lawns, like they're making some big brave statement - of course they like their local law enforcement there, and they're not alone. Rural, suburban, even most city residents do support and respect the police. Of course there are those who run afoul of the law and have an adversarial relationship with LEOs in both rural and urban areas.
There is a HUGE difference on how and where people interact with LEOs. If you live in Saucon Valley area, maybe you call the police because of a stray animal in your yard or you see a mysterious van driving slowly around, maybe a fender bender at an intersection. Worst case is a family member is somehow in danger. You call in the police to help and to assist you with a potential problem and are grateful for it. Violent crimes are almost unheard of beyond mental health/domestic situations.
Inner city is a different equation completely. More people living in a smaller space = higher likelihood of crimes of all types. Much tougher area for LEOs to operate in, there is a level of distrust between the police and the citizens that does not exist in less crowded areas, based on years, even decades of experience from BOTH LEOs AND residents.
Its moronic to even begin to compare "patriotic red areas" versus "anarchist blue areas", when all of your understanding comes from where you currently live. Do you get offended when all Trump voters are assumed to be elderly dimwitted rednecks? Or do you know that there are other types of Trump supporters that don't match that criteria? Dumb blanket statements are just that, dumb and contribute to the divisiveness this country is seeing these days.
Both Dems and Reps are highly motivated this year. Historic turnout this election for sure.
I find that Smerconish and C-Span are both excellent. C-Span will expose you to diverse points of view on the right and left. Smerconish is adept at finding excellent presentations from all sides.
Worth noting when talking about the margins is the only third party candidate, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen. The Bernie Bros don't have the Green Party option like they did in 2016, but pro-marijuana, anti-war fiscal conservatives do!
Lots of republican supporters. Lots of flags flying. Great point. Afraid to put up a trump sign for fear of being cancelled or abused. The flag says it all
Lets not forget the election is also about the seat on the Supreme Court, foreigh policy (someone got two Arab Countries to sign an agreement with Israel), Troops coming home, abortion of babies being born alive, and the list could go on and on. Only one choice, and you know who that is. The current President.
Abidextrious writter Bernie, we all know that Trump is your man! This being you know if your left you just quite ain't Right!
I consider Trump the worst President in US history, but believe he could scare enough people to vote for him.
Trump making peace agreements and failing to start any wars certainly qualifies him as worst. I'm sure you prefer any one of the last 8 presidents who just couldn't get enough of sending kids to die. Bernie, you're so effing deranged you've lost sight of the important things in life. You'd prefer a more evolved leader who sends our kids to die in endless wars. That's sick. But you be you - which is apparently pro-war this month. Asshole dog chasing your tail.
A primary process that eliminates all the popular candidates for the same-old-same-old bullshit rammed down your throat.
The democrats did an excellent job turning me in to a Trump voter.
Many Republicans don't seem to understand or have no idea how many Tulsi, Bernie, and Yang voters, are voting for Trump, these so-called lefties have recognized that the Democratic Party's fifth column are known as "centrist", and it is better to have Trump in particular, or a principled Republican of any strip, than to take the side of a corporate "centrist" democrat, the worst of all political animals.
There is no principle or set of values a corporate centrist Democrat will not compromise in their lust for power and personal gain. They are not to be trusted.
Hey 1:36, Trump hasn't started any wars (although he was pretty damn close with N. Korea), but his failure to manage Covid-19 has already killed over three times as many Americans as died in the Vietnam War.
Trump has kept us out of war only by dumb luck. Why do you thnk the Secy. of Defense was sleeping in his clothes and praying more than usual?
2:38,
You believe the tripe you write? Republicans blocked an Obama selection for SCOTUS for 11 months on the grounds of it being an election year, now are trying to bum rush the Trump choice in before he is voted out. That's Republicans compromising when it's convenient to them.
No, the Biden-Harris (or is it the Harris-Biden) combination, controlled by far-left power brokers, is what scares (or should scare) people into voting for Trump.
**Bye-Don 2020**
No More Dipshit!
1:27AM
"controlled by far-left power brokers"
Here's one of those lefties pulling Biden's strings. Interesting video.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/QAOLLDP8eo8l/
Ya well, I have to report something this guy didn’t know apparently. Trump won By 44292 votes last time. However since riots ,gun sales are at all time high And mbmemb
H
Cabella cleaned out . And local places only have low end anything. Ammunition is scarce,limiting sales to two box’s are 4 times the regular price. An estimated 276,648 people bought guns in Pennsylvania for first time . My point is , 276,648 divide by44,292 = what percentage increase in voters for gun issues. 40 % of new buys are ladies. Well I’m seeing it my range. Joe is done here in PA. If Republicans and Dem .gun owners go vote . It’s my humble opinion .
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