Business shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders have been issues by Governor Tom Wolf to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of Covid-19, but how are we doing? Not so good. Pennlive.com has been keeping track of the daily state increase in known coronavirus cases. It appears that these draconian measures have had little or no effect, although I suppose the argument could be made that the spike would be far greater without them.
Other countries have approached this problem differently, and with greater success. Instead of lockdowns, Iceland is engaged in aggressive testing, contact tracing and strict quarantines of those who are infected. This is also the approach employed in South Korea, which has been very successful in fighting this pandemic despite being located close to China, where the virus originated.
Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, who learned from the SARS crisis in 2003, were ready for this pandemic. In addition to the Iceland approach, these countries were quick to impose travel restrictions with foreign countries and to screen those who returned.
In contrast to those countries that have been successful, the biggest error in the US appears to be its failure to pursue rigorous testing. This is mostly the result of bureaucratic bungling. The CDC produced flawed test kits. The FDA was slow to approve new testing. Even now, testing is limited.
Some reported numbers should be questioned. I have now seen documents by the CDC explains how to indicate Coronavirus on Death Certificates. Don’t know if what I was reading was pertaining only to California, but sure seems plausible to everywhere.
ReplyDeleteInstructions explain it is acceptable to list Coronavirus as cause of death whenever Coronavirus is discovered by test, OR, presumed to be related. That’s rather stunning, I think. In other words, Coronavirus Does not necessarily be the exclusive reason, even if there was an existing underlying serious condition.
I become similarly suspicious of “numbers” when the Morning Call started using a numerical tally with these words. “ X number of real and PRESUMED cases.” Might not, in some reporting, these results have no more reliability than political polling? As we have found, political polling is VERY easy to fix to reveal whatever result desired.
Just something else to consider in this era of a Different Definition for Journalism.
“Now, three weeks after the United States and other countries took sweeping suppression steps that could last months or more, some public health specialists are exploring a different consequence of the mass shutdown: the thousands of deaths likely to arise unrelated to the disease itself.
ReplyDeleteThe longer the suppression lasts, history shows, the worse such outcomes will be. A surge of unemployment in 1982 cut the life spans of Americans by a collective two to three million years, researchers found. During the last recession, from 2007-2009, the bleak job market helped spike suicide rates in the United States and Europe, claiming the lives of 10,000 more people than prior to the downturn. This time, such effects could be even deeper in the weeks, months and years ahead if, as many business and political leaders are warning, the economy crashes and unemployment skyrockets to historic levels.”
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-usa-cost/
May want to save that article. The PC police may pressure Reuters to "cancel" it soon, although their take that "the poor will be hardest hit" may.
So now you know more than the public health officials to repeatedly entreat us to stay the hell away from each other?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM.
12.00
ReplyDeletefrom the study
"The effects at age 19 and
20, i.e. the contemporaneous effects of higher unemployment on mortality, are negative.
For every additional percentage point in unemployment at graduation, mortality at age 19
and 20 is reduced by about 0.2 deaths per 10,000. This finding is in line with Ruhm (2000)
and related studies, who have shown that mortality tends to decrease during times of high
unemployment."
the study only considers "The increases in mortality are chiefly driven by certain causes of death, including heart disease, lung cancer, liver disease, and drug poisoning.suicide
"
yet fails to address say cars with better safety systems which reduce deaths for example.
Older folks in the study do worse as getting a new job tends to get harder the older you get.
Lastly the study does not reflect say folks going back to school when unemployed.
The numbers are based on unemployment numbers from states.
Betting the farm on that study would be problematic
There are several articles about the FDA hoop jumping. It seems they had a hard time distinguishing between, a routine process that may take years and an expedited process. The original CDC test had a very high false positive rate. When the hurdles were cleared for things to be put out to private labs, they got it right and quickly.
ReplyDeleteMuch has been trial and error, of course the political opportunists will be quick to blame Trump. One good thing is in the future there may be a better system in place.
It also seems that the assumptions about this virus were wrong. It appears to be able to be contracted without physical contact.
Masks may have been in order for everyone, but then, we must realize we no longer have the industrial capacity to quickly make things. we have become dependent on china.
" Iceland is engaged in aggressive testing, contact tracing and strict quarantines of those who are infected. This is also the approach employed in South Korea, which has been very successful "
ReplyDeleteSure and Iceland has 364 thousand people,
that is why they can do things differently.
for example -" the Lehigh Valley, which had a population of 821,623 residents as of 2010" or Staten island has 476 thousand.
bigger problem in both scale and capabilities.
"So now you know more than the public health officials to repeatedly entreat us to stay the hell away from each other?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM."
The same doctors who told us not to wear masks, but who are now telling us top wear them. Look at the data. Look at the approaches used in countries that have been successful. Learn. That's what science dictates.
"Sure and Iceland has 364 thousand people,"
ReplyDeleteTrue, and South Korea has 51 million. Taiwan has 23 million. Their governments succeeded. Ours failed, on both a national and state level. It's just the way it is.
Hey Bernie, is there any truth in the following initiative PREDICT?
ReplyDeleteTwo months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.
The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories — including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
Shockingly, USA Today online has put-up a nice feature about the many problems with overreacting by taking away citizen rights in response to this pandemic. When the new media starts to backpedal, I start to smile, and without a mask so that smile can be seen. Next White House press conference listed for 3:30 today. The major news organization reporters’ response could be worth a look.
ReplyDeleteS Korea was trending like Italy, Spain, and the US. They quickly pivoted to aggressive testing, masks, and social distancing. They crushed the curve. We've really blown this at every level. We could have kept working and achieved this number of infections. Instead, Wolf also ruined the economy and people's lives. Careless and stupid.
ReplyDelete2:00 PM
ReplyDeleteHuh? You find a negative correlation for 19 and 20 year olds and somehow think the whole study is negated? Doesn't society consist of more than 19 and 20 year olds?
"the study only considers "The increases in mortality are chiefly driven by certain causes of death, including heart disease, lung cancer, liver disease, and drug poisoning.suicide"
Well duh-h-h-h. You want them to consider work-place deaths WHEN NOBODY CAN FIND A JOB!!!
"yet fails to address say cars with better safety systems which reduce deaths for example."
What the Hell does that have to do with anything? If fewer people are dying in car accidents, wouldn't that tie an increase in deaths even more strongly to other causes?
"Betting the farm on that study would be problematic"
Translation: I don't like it.
2.55
ReplyDelete"Their governments succeeded. Ours failed,"
Yet one can admit that having say one thousand tests goes a lot farther in Iceland than say Staten island.
Also in Iceland when your told to self isolate they will enforce it.
Unlike say New Hampshire with the idiot who tested positive
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/2nd-presumed-case-coronavirus-new-hampshire/2085211/
"State health officials said that the first coronavirus patient "attended an invitation-only private event on Friday" despite being told to stay isolated."
Guess they need to ankle bracelet some folks
2.16
ReplyDelete"The same doctors who told us not to wear masks, but who are now telling us top wear them"
And the situation has changed.
The spread is quite larger than it was.
Most likely the failure of folks to self distance,pay attention to disinfect,led to the need to have ordinary folks with a mask.
Had there been enough masks at the beginning the docs would have recommended everybody wears one.
So if you have a limited number of masks you have to decide who has a greater chance of getting corona?
a nurse in the hospital? or a guy shopping at Walmart
3:53, Duh, It was known at an early stage that this virus is highly contagious, and it was also known that even a homemade mask is somewhat effective. Yet at the same time our bungling bureaucrats were shutting down businesses and ordering lockdowns, they were telling everyone not to wear masks. Now they are, and at news conferences in which these experts themselves do not wear masks or maintain a 6' distance. Had they imposed these less draconian measures sooner, it might very well be that we'd all be working.
ReplyDelete3:16, Your claim about PREDICT is being reported in the LA Times. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection
ReplyDelete2.00
ReplyDeleteread the study and the increase in mortality applies to ages 40 and up.
About all it really shows is that White males say over 50 suffer from losing their job.
Yep they get to start again at the bottom in salary and other items.
But that is when they lose their jobs permanently.
In today's case the business is still there but idle.
Employers can use this corona to replace older workers or replace folks that they probably wanted to get rig of anyway.
Most of them will not so the study does not really apply.
Except for it being harder for older workers to start again which is not really news.
5.44
ReplyDelete"Now they are, and at news conferences in which these experts themselves do not wear masks or maintain a 6' distance."
That is the Dukakius effect.
For example trump does not want to be seen in a mask as his political opponents will use it against him.
Or trump does not want his picture in the history books to show him wearing a mask.
trump is trying mightily to distance himself from corona and the deaths that are sure to come.
Nor do any of the political class want to get that attached to them in any way.
8:59
ReplyDeleteI want to make sure I understand your argument.
Since excess deaths due to economic hardship is only in older people, it doesn't matter?
I wish you'd come out and say what you mean.
In regard to the LA Times report about shutting down a study program, I encourage everyone NOT to rely on any one, single source, of news. That’s just not wise these days. The truth is what YOU can stitch together after paying attention to 5-6 different opinions. NEVER try to find YOUR version of truth by only visiting sites that you have always agreed with.
ReplyDeleteI did branch out for about an hour after reading that LA Times report. What I found was an extensive discussion of its actual relevance to where we find ourselves now. Without at least another hour of searching, I can only conclude the relevance/impact of that debate is light.
Regarding the PA curve and effectiveness of lockdowns:
ReplyDeleteOf course we have no controlled experiment. All “lockdowns” are not the same and no state has “done nothing,” so let’s use the esteemed great minds at the Washington Post for a benchmark.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/01/states-like-florida-lag-coronavirus-response-white-house-declines-push-harder/
In this hit piece, they make it clear that Florida is a disaster waiting to happen (hey, Republican guv!). Only recently was Florida steamrolled into something resembling a “lockdown,” and yet liquor stores remain open and road construction continues. So how’s proactive PA doing relative to dumb ol’ FL?
Wiki has conveniently summarized the data for both states.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Pennsylvania
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Florida
Florida had its first case on March 1 and first death on March 6. Pennsylvania had its first case on March 6 and first death on March 21.
The latest numbers (increases for most recent day):
PA: 10017 cases (780/million), 19% increase, 136 deaths (10.6/million), 33% increase
FL: 11545 cases (540/million), 12% increase, 195 deaths (9.1/million), 14.7% increase
To be fair, day-to-day increases can bounce around a bit, so let’s take 5 day averages. For the day-to-day increase 5 day average, we get:
PA: cases 19.6%, deaths 23.2%
FL: cases 15.0%, deaths 22.8%
So using the Washington Post “bad state” measuring stick, PA’s not looking too good at the moment, even though they had an earlier and more aggressive "lockdown."
Bear in mind that Florida has a lot more out-of-state and international visitors in March than does Pennsylvania, and may very well have had as many people coming from New York.
Most talk is about flattening the curve on new cases and new deaths.
ReplyDeleteBut there is another curve which, so far, is very steep and shows little sign of flattening any time soon.
That is the learning curve on this novel virus.
If you believe our scientists, epidemiologists, doctors and health care providers are smart, well-trained and operating in good faith (as I do), it is very clear that even the best minds are struggling mightily with getting a grip on Covid-19. Especially in a society unmatched anywhere else in the world with its level of freedom.
As the number of new cases and deaths grows, there is also growing frustration with figuring out what works and what doesn't. The curve on new cases and deaths won't flatten until the learning curve flattens.
I decline to post an obviously partisan comment that holds up Italy as an example for other countries. Obviously, that is nonsense.
ReplyDeleteOne chart from the ‘experts’ at CDC is related to the ‘curve’ of pneumonia. It shares the SAME time coordinates as the much discussed data ‘curve’ for the new COVID-19.
ReplyDeleteOverlay one curve over another. You will notice, as pneumonia numbers drop, the COVID-19 numbers rise.
This one small example MIGHT only be related to coincidence. Coincidences are everywhere in life. This same small example COULD also be related to a changed method in how data is logged, and where.
Everything seems so ‘sketchy’ right now.
8.59
ReplyDelete"
Since excess deaths due to economic hardship is only in older people, it doesn't matter?
not at all.
the study refers to folks losing their jobs and their struggles after that occurs.
it is based on unemployment figures from states that for one does not reflect people may move to a new job out of that state.
so the basis they are working from is incomplete.
the worst case the study claims to reduce life expectancy 3 to 6 months.
Genetic differences in people could account for that or a myriad number of other causes.
Trying to apply that study to corona and it's effects is even more of a stretch.
10.58
ReplyDeletetry
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
compare total deaths between Florida and PA.
Pa is much lower.
We just left grocery store shopping for basics wearing masks and gloves. Noticed many without masks and gloves, many touching food and putting it back down, not staying away from each other, crowding aisles and being impatient. If observing safe practices is necessary for us to defeat this thing , we are fucking doomed.
ReplyDeleteThe spike would have been far greater if not for shelter-in-place. You are correct that there was a huge failure by not having enough tests available and not taking this seriously in the very early stages, which surely lead to many deaths. But, given that the tests weren't available, shelter-in-place was the correct decision and prevented the curve from being exponentially higher.
ReplyDelete