As of noon on April 2, the state Department of Health reports 378 Covid-19 cases in Northampton County, with 9 deaths. In Lehigh County, there are 479 cases but just 5 deaths. In the Lehigh Valley, the current mortality rate is 1.6%. Statewide, the mortality rate is 1.3%. Nationwide, CDC reports a 2.1% fatality rate as of yesterday.
This is about ten times the fatality rate of seasonal flu, but does not include people who were never tested for Covid-19 and who had the virus but were asymptomatic. According to aggressive testing in Iceland, as much as 50% of those with Covid-19 never know it. If this is corroborated by additional testing, this would mean the fatality rate is actually much lower, but still far more lethal than seasonal flu.
In addition to testing at least 13% of its population thus far, Iceland also does contact tracing with all persons who have been in contact with a positive result. It also employs a strict quarantine on those infected. As a result, it has been able to avoid the lockdowns and business closures that have been prevalent in much of Europe as well as the United States. What Iceland does is similar to the practice employed in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, a public health official at the spearhead of the virus crisis, has conceded CDC's "failure" to develop and implement a test.
This failure has devastated the economy and the normal functioning of government. State Governors like Tom Wolf are imposing business shutdowns that have been unevenly enforced and with no consideration to the millions who have been negatively impacted. Yesterday, it was impossible to access the state benefits site for food stamps and cash assistance, while the unemployment site has crashed repeatedly.
Local government has been more responsive. Many municipalities, with some glaring exceptions, have extended tax deadlines and are still trying to serve their communities.
Most recently, Northampton County's Judge Craig Dally still convened Drug Court at a time when those in early recovery are tempted to stray. The County Government has dedicated a floor at its nursing home as an isolation unit. It has gathered and distributed personal protective equipment to numerous first responders. All inmates have been moved from the Work Release facility in West Easton to a building on S. Union Street in Easton. West Easton's Center for low-risk offenders is being prepared in case Northampton County requires a staging area or field hospital as it responds to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The West Easton facility has an open barracks set up. If any inmate tests positive or showed symptom of Covid-19, the entire facility would have to be quarantined. At the Community Corrections facility on S. Union Street, inmates can be housed in smaller groups and will be closer to medical resources in the Northampton County Prison.
The Work Release Facility in West Easton has a 120 bed capacity, a large classroom for briefings and a kitchen which can be used to warm food. It can be used for medical needs or as a quarantine site.
130 comments:
The actual "denominator" - the number of actual cases - is likely substantially greater than the reported denominator, the number of cases confirmed by testing. The CDC always gives an estimated range of actual influenza cases each year because the number of actual cases is unknown.
More interesting, perhaps, is the "numerator" - the actual number of deaths from coronavirus. It is likely that this number may either be underreported or overreported. In the US, some jurisdictions may underreport because the deceased suffered from other potentially fatal conditions. Some may overreport - crediting coronavirus with the death when other illnesses may have caused the death. Underreporting or overreporting may occur because many deaths involve patients with compromised immune systems.
We will never know for sure.
I'm really quire happy that Wolf closed down a lot of businesses and invoked a stay at home order. It will save lives and less people will become ill. Better safer than sorry.
He/She said as the economy collapsed around him/her.
12:23 AM- Very good post. There is much more than meets the eye. particularly when many media outlets have dedicated their efforts to a focused ‘blame game.’
Bernie, please continue on with your efforts to clarify this situation a little better. A free exchange of helpful information is what is needed. Everyone can do their own fact-checking away from their usual source. Hopefully, they will. The truth is out there, but it’s not easy to find.
4:48AM- Good post Komrad, Just lie under your bed in the fetal position sucking your thumb until they come for you. Nothing to worry about here!
From our nation’s very beginning, when we organized as a group committed to federalism, each state assumed greatest responsibility for the health and welfare of its citizens. Now, 50 separate State Governors have accepted MOST control over how prepared it is in a time of crisis.
It was ALWAYS intended this way.
Remember, though, most State Departments of Education have stopped teaching History as it once was. Probably a reason why so many young citizens are attracted to fully authoritarian governance, it’s the EASY route.
Federalism means the Pennsylvania Governor is PRIMARY HERE, before and after a situation like this. It is his responsibility to maintain an adequate supply in advance of such an incident. Running to the White House is not the first step. Knowing what’s on hand, where it is, and how to get it around quickly is the responsibility of our State Department of Health.
Disappointed in your state’s performance? Under federalism, you have 49 alternatives to living here and finding something better. Millions are already doing this . . . If they are able.
In contrast, what can the people of China do? Throw rocks and bottles.
I also agree that Wolf's stay-at-home directive was necessary.
The feds get a D, at best. Too little, much too late.
We had heard from every leader except one...Ray O'Connell. Every Mayor and every County Executive was making comments about Covid 19 from the outset except for O'Connell, who was probably curled up in the fetal position under his couch. Finally, 2 days ago he did a podcast, probably because his handlers told him he had to do something....anything! He is an empty suit, not a leader.
I'm curious. I've read NY state had about 2,000 ventilators in stock for its 19 million citizens. Their own emergency manage plan called for over 15,000 to be purchased. Instead, citing budget restraints they decided to stay with 2,000 and develop a triage/rationing plan for them. How many did PA have ready for it's 12 million citizens and what was our plan?
It also seems to me that several states have not planned properly to distribute the federal aid they receive. Some states are very good at doing this. I was certainly no admirer, but Bill Clinton and James Lee Witt rewrote the book on proper state level response in Arkansas. A lot of southern states copied them. Northern states apparently haven't.
York Daily Record reported over 2,000 statewide on 3/24. Many of them are owned by hospitals.
PA was in the same boat as NY and utterly unprepared. The guy in a dress from the Dept of Health refuses to say how many the state has in its stockpile. That's because the honest answer reveals shocking negligence.
When this if finally over, I’m anxious to read an analysis of how Pennsylvania Senators Toomey and Casey helped support their own states.
Both Senators are long-time political animals beholden to special interest groups who fund their elections and buy influence. This IS relevant to better understand how career politicians make decisions, and the issue of term limits.
8:27 you make a good point. It's times like these that I miss FedEd. Say what you will, he was a hell of a lot better Mayor than dopey O'Connell. Ray is an embarrassment.
8:43 - I think you are on to something about state preparedness. For those of us lucky to be able to view the ENTIRE daily press briefings, this very same void is discussed. Unfortunately, many common news outlets are deciding to STOP covering these critical updates. Other common new sources, like our own Morning Call, is avoiding accurate portrayal.
Representatives participating in those White House events are stating they are requiring each state to indicate the amount of product on hand and what steps were taken to find more. The National Stockpile was never intended to be a first level response, for those who actually CAN meet present needs now.
It is indeed TRUE our national stockpile was not replenished after the large H1N1 flu a few year ago. Now, in mid-March, when the World Health Organization finally labeled this event as a PANDEMIC, more than the usual seasonal flu.
A bit off-topic, but next time people rant about the age of our presidential candidates, note that Dr. Anthony Fauci is 79 years old. He's the guy leading the nation on the medical front.
Your grade is failed. this is a unique event, I like all the back benchers, critiquing everyone. There are probably mistakes made. Thats what happens the first time you do something. We see many trying to pass the buck to someone else. These governors need to be governors and make the best decisions they can. I assume they are doing that. Everyone needs to work together , not sitting on their ass criticizing everyone else.
Anonymous said...
York Daily Record reported over 2,000 statewide on 3/24. Many of them are owned by hospitals.
PA was in the same boat as NY and utterly unprepared. The guy in a dress from the Dept of Health refuses to say how many the state has in its stockpile. That's because the honest answer reveals shocking negligence.
April 3, 2020 at 8:43 AM
It says a lot about you that you repeatedly disparage the personal attractiveness of one of the state cabinet members. I'm guessing 7you picked that up from the Disparager in Chief.
And the ventilator information has been released.
I think it is appropriate to say, “ POLITICIANS are operating at the fullest capacity their mind and soul is willing to tolerate.” Sarcasm, of course.
USA TODAY:
U.S. exports of surgical masks, ventilators and other personal protective gear to China skyrocketed in January and February, when the coronavirus was wreaking havoc in the country where it began and as U.S. intelligence agencies warned it would soon spread.\
American companies sold more than $17.5 million worth of face masks, more than $13.6 million in surgical garments and more than $27.2 million in ventilators to China during the first two months of the year, far exceeding that of any other similar period in the past decade, according to the most recent foreign trade data available from the U.S. Census Bureau.
9:58 - and up until yesterday, one huge American company, 3M, was STILL selling first to foreign nations, rather than to America. That’s the Business Roundtable model.
"It says a lot about you that you repeatedly disparage the personal attractiveness of one of the state cabinet members."
This is fair. The dress notwithstanding, that the state's top mental health official is a man so troubled he lopped off his privates is rather disturbing to many. Any death figures from official sources are broken into male and female. If this cabinet member were to tragically succumb, it would be classified by that department as a male death. We're all about science until it comes to 27 genders, whatever those are.
Not a good look. Spotlight PA reports our Governor is shutting down the Shutdown Waiver Program at 5:00PM today. No doubt, way too many requests to process. The program was much too confusing in its description and execution.
“[if] we have between 100 and 200,000 [deaths], we altogether have done a very good job.”
Anonymous said...
"It says a lot about you that you repeatedly disparage the personal attractiveness of one of the state cabinet members."
This is fair. The dress notwithstanding, that the state's top mental health official is a man so troubled he lopped off his privates is rather disturbing to many. Any death figures from official sources are broken into male and female. If this cabinet member were to tragically succumb, it would be classified by that department as a male death. We're all about science until it comes to 27 genders, whatever those are.
You have an obvious preoccupation with the genitals of others. I say you're a dick.
Anonymous said...
Not a good look. Spotlight PA reports our Governor is shutting down the Shutdown Waiver Program at 5:00PM today. No doubt, way too many requests to process. The program was much too confusing in its description and execution.
April 3, 2020 at 10:42 AM
Thank you, Gov. Wolf, for taking decisive action even though we all knew that there are many knee-jerkers who'd complain.
A better ‘look’ during a Panic Virus would be to let the waiver program continue on. Less anxiety producing for confused, struggling small business owners.
The Hill:
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) is requesting an investigation into reports of "mismanagement" of ventilators in the Strategic National Stockpile amid growing demand for the equipment as the coronavirus spreads across the country.
The feds apparently HAVE done a bang-up job on body-bags, so long as we don't exceed 100,000 deaths/
Are you tired of winning?
many of you deserve to die.
"More of the angry old men bitchin about the virus. You are all right, it is all propaganda. You should go and lick that doorknob and prove to the liberals and mainstream media you are right. Open the gyms and sweat om each other again."
This has nothing to do with the liberal v. conservative ideology, which I frankly find tiresome. I am dealing with facts, and base conclusions on those facts. Before I go any further, let me add that there is no virus in another person's sweat. It's disgusting, but there is no virus. The reason a gym can be dangerous is because of droplets caused when someone sneezes or coughs. There is some evidence that it could be spread by aerosol particles from someone's breath, but there is disagreement among experts on that point. So I see no reason for closing down any business so long as social distancing measures are enforced. This would likely make it much more difficult for a restaurant to turn a profit, and it is likely most gyms would still close bc they would be unable to follow CDC guidelines, but that should be THEIR choice.
I am very leery of a government that injects itself into our personal liberties. I believe far less draconian measures would have been far more successful, as they have proven to be in other countries.
#film your hospital
Dying with corona, is not the same as dying from corona.
The Suicide in place order is ravaging the country. Flu season or a tough corona season will not cause the damages that this shutdown has, a media made disaster, the consequences of which will rarely be reported.
Here are more collateral deaths.
https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-morning-call/20200401/281492163420983
All inmates have been moved from the Work Release facility in West Easton to a building on S. Union Street in Easton...
Is McClure laying the groundwork to get out of West Easton when the lease expires?
To those who feel our very existence as a species depends on preventing people from going to the gym: How do you feel about Ruth Bader Ginsberg insisting on getting her exercise in at the gym? I’m betting I’d know how you’d feel if it was Brett Kavenaugh.
For the record…GOOD FOR HER!
Bernie -
I think you intended to insert "Northampton County" somewhere in your opening sentence of this post.
It's missing.
"This has nothing to do with the liberal v. conservative ideology"
True, as to the virus.
If the american public had not been saturated with bogus stories about Russian involvement in our elections to explain a weak challenge from an unpopular scold. Bumpered by Ukrainian phone calls and grifting, and then a bogus impeachment.
Along with being told a high valued child molesting human trafficker on suicide watch, with ties to ex-presidents and Royals somehow kills himself.
When you "cry wolf" enough no one will believe you anymore. I find people who believe this shit pitiable. What would it take, how much more can they lie to you before you realize you been had?
Abe Atiyeh just increased the rent by $50K per month.
I would not blame Trump and Pence and his whole cabinet to resign and let Nancy run the country, that is what you people on this site want, You should really have it.
You are getting info from BO... a well read, expert on nothing except his opinion
"I think you intended to insert "Northampton County" somewhere in your opening sentence of this post."
I did, and just fixed that rather significant error. Thanks for telling me.
if you think there is no politics involved here you are delusional. It is 80 politics and 20 percent virus reduction. If the Democrats could loose 1 million citizens to regain power they would go for it in a heartbeat. You have to be kidding me. Adam Schiff is forming a committee as we speak to subpoena members of the task force to reveal all their conversations etc. If they do this, they should all resign but refuse to comply.
Anonymous said...
To those who feel our very existence as a species depends on preventing people from going to the gym: How do you feel about Ruth Bader Ginsberg insisting on getting her exercise in at the gym? I’m betting I’d know how you’d feel if it was Brett Kavenaugh.
For the record…GOOD FOR HER!
April 3, 2020 at 11:40 AM
She appears to be the only one using the gym.
And we can have all of the social distancing guidelines we want in place, but that doesn't mean that people will comply. The immediate public health need is so dire that a broad ax is being wielded. Sometimes rules need to be broad in order to be simple and for the objective to be clear. We can relax these practices once real progress has been made, whatever that is defined to be.
Anonymous said...
I would not blame Trump and Pence and his whole cabinet to resign and let Nancy run the country, that is what you people on this site want, You should really have it.
April 3, 2020 at 11:55 AM
I would be happy to have virtually anyone other than Trump as president. And it's not like Pence has distinguished himself, although it's arguable that Trump is the problem there, too.
Unintended consequences. Wisconsin dairy farmers forced to dump 43 million gallons of milk. Due to the impact of such a deep shutdown, the shorter shelf life of milk has created a massive glut of milk at the point of processing. Source, Madison.com
"You are getting info from BO... a well read, expert on nothing except his opinion"
True. My opinions, and I have many, are based on verifiable facts. In this post, I relied on facts gleaned from the state DOH; CDC; reports on the aggressive testing done in Iceland and some Asian countries; Wolf's executive orders, Spotlight Pa. reports on the hypocritical and uneven use of waivers by Wolf's DCED; news reports about Pa benefits sites being overburdend, which I subsequently confirmed myself; and news releases from NorCo.
I rely on these unassailable facts to assert, as a matter of opinion, that there has been a monumental failure of leadership on both a national and state level. The only governments who have been effective have been our local governments.
You can dislike me, as you obviously do. You can disagree with my opinions, as you obviously do. But facts are the basis of my opinions, while ideology or partisanship form the basis of yours.
12:00PM
If you think this is just a Democratic ploy you are delusional. They couldn't organize bathroom breaks without help. This is clearly bigger than just democrats.
Which is exactly why it's not about R's and D's...it's about that pesky constitution power hates so much.
Anonymous said...
if you think there is no politics involved here you are delusional. It is 80 politics and 20 percent virus reduction. If the Democrats could loose 1 million citizens to regain power they would go for it in a heartbeat. You have to be kidding me. Adam Schiff is forming a committee as we speak to subpoena members of the task force to reveal all their conversations etc. If they do this, they should all resign but refuse to comply.
April 3, 2020 at 12:00 PM
Get real, Mr. GOP. President Censor won't let anyone testify about anything if he can prevent it. So Trump muffs the response but suddenly it's Democrats who would be happy to see 1a million die unnecessarily.
We are so ON to you people. See you in Nov.
I do now believe the best course would be to lift all restrictions, go back to business by choice, and let nature take its course. If you want to go to the gym, go. If you want to work, do it. I am sick, not from the virus, but from the back stabbing vicious politics. We should force congress back into session to make all the decisions they want to criticize and lets start thinning the herd starting in Washington D.C. Like all bureaucrats, they really do not want to make any decisions, just criticize those who do.
Just like most of those on this blog. They want everyone else to take care of them and decide for them. Then criticize. Really a good definition of cowards, afraid of life. Sick people.
"it's arguable that Trump is the problem there, too."
Trump certainly was a problem at the beginning of this crisis, and he still makes unhelpful statements. He has improved, but is still petty and thin-skinned, too concerned about his ratings. He thinks this is a TV show. I believe he is now trying, though. I would add that Pelosi's statement that Trump has blood on his hands is outrageous. I dislike the guy, but this is no time for partisan politics. And this national failure goes back decades. It is not just Trump.
On the state level, I reported accurately when Wolf closed nonessential businesses that there was no order. News outlets reported it as an "order," and I was the only one who accurately observed there was no order, a point he later conceded. His precipitous actions caused panic buying on no less than three occasions. He laid off state workers and made no preparations to help the people who would be destroyed when he actually did issue executive orders. He took the most draconian actions he could without preparing the infrastructure for the massive claims he knew would ensue. In fact, and here I go again with facts, he just froze the pay of 10% of the state workforce after laying off another 2,500. This does include people who would be processing unemployment. The "reform" governor, who hasn't reformed anything, is a walking disaster.
Local governments have been far more helpful.
Time to remind everyone, the current federal administration will be in power until late January, 2021. If this situation is not resolved adequately by then, anyone else at the controls (another 2 months transitional time) it very well could be too late to help most citizens.
Now is the time to SET ASIDE political conflicts. No time for playing meaningless games.
2:14....media. “Blame game”. C’mon man. We are in a global crisis and we NEED thev media. Without scrutiny, it becomes all cofefe and Jared.
"We can relax these practices once real progress has been made, whatever that is defined to be."
As defined by whom? You have some all-powerful source that we're "not allowed" to question?
What do YOU think?
If you think progress means "no new cases", say so.
If you think progress means "less than xxxx deaths", say so.
Too many here are hiding behind a false cloak of moral superiority, and imply that anything worse than perfection is equivalent to murder.
The number 100,000 is being mocked by one of our Mr. Perfects. For the US, that would be 285 per million population. I wonder what number "Mr. Perfect" considers to be acceptable. When he comes up with one, maybe he can look around the world and tell us which countries are likely to achieve that.
Since most countries still have rapidly increasing numbers, he's going to just have to guess, but since he's perfect, I'm sure he can up with a number.
Anonymous said...
I do now believe the best course would be to lift all restrictions, go back to business by choice, and let nature take its course. If you want to go to the gym, go. If you want to work, do it. I am sick, not from the virus, but from the back stabbing vicious politics. We should force congress back into session to make all the decisions they want to criticize and lets start thinning the herd starting in Washington D.C. Like all bureaucrats, they really do not want to make any decisions, just criticize those who do.
Just like most of those on this blog. They want everyone else to take care of them and decide for them. Then criticize. Really a good definition of cowards, afraid of life. Sick people.
April 3, 2020 at 12:19 PM
If you could limit the increased risk of your behavior to yourself, I would be happy to, let Darwinian principles rule. But you can't, so I won't agree. I ask the government to protect me and others from people like you.
Bernie O'Hare said...
"it's arguable that Trump is the problem there, too."
Trump certainly was a problem at the beginning of this crisis, and he still makes unhelpful statements. He has improved, but is still petty and thin-skinned, too concerned about his ratings. He thinks this is a TV show. I believe he is now trying, though. I would add that Pelosi's statement that Trump has blood on his hands is outrageous. I dislike the guy, but this is no time for partisan politics. And this national failure goes back decades. It is not just Trump.
April 3, 2020 at 12:25 PM
When did he place his first order under the DPA for ventilators?
Why aren't tests widely available yet?
He's only admitting to massive potential deaths now so that we can come in under that and he can say "See, not so bad."
Bernie O'Hare said...
On the state level, I reported accurately when Wolf closed nonessential businesses that there was no order. News outlets reported it as an "order," and I was the only one who accurately observed there was no order, a point he later conceded. His precipitous actions caused panic buying on no less than three occasions. He laid off state workers and made no preparations to help the people who would be destroyed when he actually did issue executive orders. He took the most draconian actions he could without preparing the infrastructure for the massive claims he knew would ensue. In fact, and here I go again with facts, he just froze the pay of 10% of the state workforce after laying off another 2,500. This does include people who would be processing unemployment. The "reform" governor, who hasn't reformed anything, is a walking disaster.
April 3, 2020 at 12:25 PM
You are arguing legalistics, not epidemiology. Even as to the legalistics: the state Supreme Court says otherwise.
12:14 - no one has to have the government protect you from this (other than offering advice). People who feel as you do can handle this on your own! Just stay home. Order everything to your door. If you do need to exit your home, keep a correct distance from others, cover your nose and mouth, try not to touch so many things. When you get back inside the home, thoroughly wash your hands often.
Anonymous said...
Time to remind everyone, the current federal administration will be in power until late January, 2021. If this situation is not resolved adequately by then, anyone else at the controls (another 2 months transitional time) it very well could be too late to help most citizens.
Now is the time to SET ASIDE political conflicts. No time for playing meaningless games.
April 3, 2020 at 12:25 PM
By all means, President Nitwit still has enough time left in his term to kill even more of us. I'd love to see the Toddler in Chief get it together, but I've been waiting 5troo long now to get my hopes up.
12:38, I believe that "real progress" ultimately will be defined by the state governments. Hopefully that will be in genuine consultation with and considerable deference to scientists. I am not one of those scientists.
It is not affecting "moral superiority" to argue that Trump failed us but to not offer you the number of "acceptable deaths" that you demand. I'd say that it should've been as few as there can be, and my government has failed to get that done. And now, we pay the price--in bodies--for Trump's incompetence.
"You are arguing legalistics, not epidemiology. Even as to the legalistics: the state Supreme Court says otherwise."
Try again. My opinions are based on facts, not law. I laid out those facts. There was no legal argument. So your reference to a 4-3 decision of the state supremes is inapposite.
"No order" is legalistics if ever I've heard it. The Gov.'s close-down order was challenged in court and that challenge was rejected. Case closed.
The disjointed response is based upon models that have been demonstrably false. What models are still being used for decision making? We've gone from 2 million expected deaths to 100K-240K. Why are any numbers to be believed? How many ventilators did the state have ready? It's a straightforward question. We appear to have been woefully unprepared. We're not getting straight answers. Official information is propaganda and should be ignored at this point.
Newsweek:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), has admitted the U.S. is "not even at half-time" in the fight against coronavirus and that more time is required for the country to turn the corner against the pandemic.
"I do now believe the best course would be to lift all restrictions, go back to business by choice, and let nature take its course. If you want to go to the gym, go. If you want to work, do it"
Testing, contact tracing and strict quarantines of those infected has worked well in other countries. Lockdowns have been a disaster, both economically and from a public health standpoint. Those are all facts.
Anonymous said...
The disjointed response is based upon models that have been demonstrably false. What models are still being used for decision making? We've gone from 2 million expected deaths to 100K-240K. Why are any numbers to be believed? How many ventilators did the state have ready? It's a straightforward question. We appear to have been woefully unprepared. We're not getting straight answers. Official information is propaganda and should be ignored at this point.
April 3, 2020 at 1:22 PM
After originally ignoring them, I believe the WH now uses the models from scientists at the U. of Washington. Two million was the upper range of the death estimate if we don't mitigate, which we certainly are doing in part. One hundred thousand to 245 thousand is if we adopt the stay-at-home and other measures.
It's my understanding that because the latter has not been done uniformly, the 100-240k range apparently is about to be updated to higher numbers, I'm sorry to say.
Bernie O'Hare said...
"I do now believe the best course would be to lift all restrictions, go back to business by choice, and let nature take its course. If you want to go to the gym, go. If you want to work, do it"
Testing, contact tracing and strict quarantines of those infected has worked well in other countries. Lockdowns have been a disaster, both economically and from a public health standpoint. Those are all facts.
April 3, 2020 at 1:24 PM
Lockdowns (which are a matter of definition) is what governments consider when there are no testing data. We're flying blind.
You're not kidding. Closing the State Stores is an all-time classic, as it immediately turned consumers into bootleggers who took to the roads to purchase in NY, NJ, DE, MD. WV, OH. I wonder if Tommy Wolf had a snifter of brandy as he made that ridiculous, costly, and dangerous decision.
Bernie is exactly right about the lock-down in place strategy. It has become an order that creates even more illness and difficult complications. My felling is, in just 2 more weeks, we will have enough evidence to decide to open-up from the current regulations. Now that the financial help to individuals is rolling out, a gradual opening, at the very least, is doable. Add to this, more of the manufacturing and supply chain limitations will be solved.
"After originally ignoring them, I believe the WH now uses the models from scientists at the U. of Washington"
That model is six days old and was proven wrong by a factor of five within 72 hours. If that's what we're using, all this chaos makes perfect sense.
We are 20 days into the self-isolation, and it is really upsetting to me to witness my wife standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into the space with tears running down her cheeks. It breaks my heart to see her like this. I have thought about how I can cheer her up. I have even considered letting her in - but rules are rules.
Husband of the year, I'm sure. Not to mention stealing someone else's material.
https://www.concordia.ca/research/migs/resources/rwanda-radio-transcripts.html
How the media can kill.
Anonymous said...
"After originally ignoring them, I believe the WH now uses the models from scientists at the U. of Washington"
That model is six days old and was proven wrong by a factor of five within 72 hours. If that's what we're using, all this chaos makes perfect sense.
April 3, 2020 at 1:35 PM
A model simply is an estimate of what will happen, within a certain confidence level (which produced a range), if certain assumptions are correct. Them models certainly would work better if we had instituted a better testing program. Trump and Pence promised but failed.
The models get updated as events transpire so that the assumptions are adjusted. I believe an update is coming that inflates the numbers that result from a high level of mitigation, precisely because those particular assumptions have not proven to be accurate.
LA Times:
Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.
PA now up to 8,420 confirmed cases and 102 deaths.
Too many people in government want to do in our ruin the economy so we change our government to the new world order so this virus played right into their arms--so they stop the great economy we had and this will help them get rid of President Trump==so Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, and Nadler can take overr.
Yes, the Democrats certainly are having fun lately. Why didn't we think of this sooner?
Dumbass.
It's too bad for the GOP that our Nincompoop in Chief didn't handle the Trump virus problem competently. I don't think he can insult his way out of this one.
He shoulda grabbed it by the coronavirus.
We will get through this. We are in much better position to defeat it than any other nation. This will become a learning experience for the generations that will follow us. They are learning never to allow your own nation to be so dependent upon other countries for critical needs. The lure of cheap labor and materials has helped to bring us down this time.
Yeah, America First ain’t such a bad idea after all. There’s promise going forward, though. The Globalist Model is imploding.
Panic is always used to curtail liberties. The saddest part is how quickly we surrender those liberties. But we live in a country were half the population believes in ghosts. We're easily frightened.
Rumor is that Easton has furloughed most of the City’s workforce with the exception of public safety.
Bad news breaking, trump is still alive!
I wonder if people in Italy and Spain are calling this the "Trump Virus."
Probably not, but hey, they don't have TDS.
While the name game is interesting, nobody doubts it's a Chinese virus and nobody doubts Dr. Levine is a man.
Ruth Bader Ginsberg should workout with Bernie the Blogger = around the same age & an upgrade for Bernie the Blogger over Mezz.
"Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat."
And just like that "Voila". No rabbit, no hat ,no dove, no magic wand.
There's so many Chinese they have to eat bats.
How do you cook a $200 million awareness program?
Media and democrat panic again, they all accused Trump of down-playing, so he out moved them by expecting 100,000 deaths, now they question the numbers, because they know Trump will tell the world that he and his staff saved tens of thousands of lives. Next move, another Schiff inquiry, Ha Ha.
Anonymous said...
We will get through this. We are in much better position to defeat it than any other nation. This will become a learning experience for the generations that will follow us. They are learning never to allow your own nation to be so dependent upon other countries for critical needs. The lure of cheap labor and materials has helped to bring us down this time.
Yeah, America First ain’t such a bad idea after all. There’s promise going forward, though. The Globalist Model is imploding.
April 3, 2020 at 2:13 PM
Self-sufficiency is one thing. Having constructive alliances with other countries also can strengthen us. They are not mutually exclusive.
Anonymous said...
Panic is always used to curtail liberties. The saddest part is how quickly we surrender those liberties. But we live in a country were half the population believes in ghosts. We're easily frightened.
April 3, 2020 at 2:14 PM
Yeah, a few hundred thousand predicted deaths will do that for you. The ghosts are a joke, of course, but the Trump virus is very real. No amount of smart-ass comments by you is gonna change that.
Anonymous said...
Bad news breaking, trump is still alive!
April 3, 2020 at 2:19 PM
I don't want to kill him just retire him. I figure he'll revive Hollywood Squares.
Anonymous said...
While the name game is interesting, nobody doubts it's a Chinese virus and nobody doubts Dr. Levine is a man.
April 3, 2020 at 2:31 PM
You should get out of her pants.
3:07, you should be happy, most deaths are old white men, the cause of most of the worlds problems.
Anonymous said...
"Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat."
And just like that "Voila". No rabbit, no hat ,no dove, no magic wand.
April 3, 2020 at 2:49 PM
No prevention. No early warning. No effective response.
"Panic is always used to curtail liberties. The saddest part is how quickly we surrender those liberties. But we live in a country were half the population believes in ghosts. We're easily frightened."
You will not understand what is happening if you don't believe there are spooks.
Anonymous said...
Media and democrat panic again, they all accused Trump of down-playing, so he out moved them by expecting 100,000 deaths, now they question the numbers, because they know Trump will tell the world that he and his staff saved tens of thousands of lives. Next move, another Schiff inquiry, Ha Ha.
April 3, 2020 at 3:03 PM
Trump admitted he didn't take the Trump virus seriously enough by conceding the potential number of fatalities. That just put more attention on him to actually, you know, try to DO something. Of course, he's not pulling it off. The death toll will be the proof.
Anonymous said...
3:07, you should be happy, most deaths are old white men, the cause of most of the worlds problems.
April 3, 2020 at 3:10 PM
Unfortunately, I'm in that demographic. But you can't blame me for Trump, that's for sure.
Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader:
Due to rising coronavirus cases in Hazleton, city Mayor Jeff Cusat has imposed a curfew starting at 8 p.m. Saturday and other measures to force social distancing.
The move comes a day after Cusat and area legislators and health care officials issued an alert that accelerating cases and other dynamics have made the city a Luzerne County coronavirus hotspot.
“The spread of this pandemic and potential risks to the city of Hazleton are just too great not to take these actions,” Cusat said in a release.
"No prevention. No early warning. No effective response."
And still no numbers wrt to what's "acceptable" from "Mr. Perfect."
Oh, Boy! At his press conference today, New York Mayor Andrew Cuomo announced he will send the National Guard around his state to seize unused ventilators from other hospitals and users. Earlier this week, 40,000 ventilators were located in a New York City-owned warehouse in New Jersey. Glad New Jersey didn’t already seize those.
Anonymous said...
"No prevention. No early warning. No effective response."
And still no numbers wrt to what's "acceptable" from "Mr. Perfect."
April 3, 2020 at 3:22 PM
I answered you a long time ago. Learn to read.
KMBT news:
MONTGOMERY, Ala — More than 5,000 medical masks that Montgomery County received from the national stockpile were rotted, the local emergency management director said Thursday.
Hmmm...
Is this the TDS version of a number?
"It is not affecting "moral superiority" to argue that Trump failed us but to not offer you the number of "acceptable deaths" that you demand. I'd say that it should've been as few as there can be, and my government has failed to get that done. And now, we pay the price--in bodies--for Trump's incompetence."
I know math is hard, but I guess words are easy.
Philly Inquirer:
"About 377,000 Pennsylvanians filed unemployment claims during the first week of coronavirus shutdowns, more than twice as many people as in any other state. As bad as the first week was, even more Pennsylvanians — 406,000 — filed for benefits last week."
Can we call it the Wolf Depression?
3:07
Let us wait until Trump bankrupts America like he has done throughout his business career.
By far this is the worse administration in the history of our country.
You asked for a small government and I hope you are happy with the results.
If President Obama was in office we would not be in this current quagmire.
State Government of PA is doing a great job but the Federal Government is failing America! Is Kushner for real?
Coumo’s pronouncement this afternoon reminds me of that line in the novel Animal Farm. “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”
Anonymous said...
Can we call it the Wolf Depression?
April 3, 2020 at 3:36 PM
You can try, but no one will care.
Anonymous said...
Coumo’s pronouncement this afternoon reminds me of that line in the novel Animal Farm. “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”
April 3, 2020 at 3:39 PM
So you would have him pursue a different policy? Or do you just want to complain about a Democrat who's trying to save lives?
3:42 - If you ask a New Yorker living in Rochester or Syracuse you will get a better answer. Try that.
3:41 PM
I figured it was worth a try. The fact that no one without TDS is using the term doesn't stop some idiot from endlessly spewing "Trump Virus."
Anonymous Anonymous said...
3:42 - If you ask a New Yorker living in Rochester or Syracuse you will get a better answer. Try that.
April 3, 2020 at 3:50 PM
I think the one New Yorker who really counts is the one who lives in Albany.
Unity and all that, right?
Hey, if you want the real story, turn off MSNBC and watch the experts & Trump at 5, They will tell you all you need to know. And likely more than you can understand.
More people on CNN now have the virus, better stop watching, you may catch it.
Falls result in more than 2.8 million injuries treated in emergency departments annually, including over 800,000 hospitalizations and more than 27,000 deaths.
https://www.ncoa.org/news/resources-for-reporters/get-the-facts/falls-prevention-facts/
I'm comforted that Rep. Bob Freeman and Rep. Mario Scavello are leading from the front on this. Wut?
"That's Mr. Idiot" to you."
My my, dumb AND pompous.
California has lost 0.000005375 % of its population. Let's shut everything down. Math is hard.
That's 5.3 millionths of one percent. Shut it all down now you crazy deniers!
New World Order. Sounds a little scary a little spooky and maybe even a little fun! Tell us how it works!
Globalist model is imploding. Sounds kinda hot! Tell us how that feels!
Don't forget, falls are highly contagious,too. I bet the real annual number of falls is actually much higher.
Bernie who? Asking for everyone.
I see that the City Of Easton had furloughed 30 percent of the work force. I suspect it's mainly the blue-collar workforce. IN times like this why does the city need an "administrator" like Luis Campos? Panto is getting a huge salary, let him take care of things. Are any city hall big wigs taking a salary cut?? And over at the State Theatre I wonder if Shelly Brown is taking a dent in her six-figure salary.
This has nothing to do with the Democratic's ability to do anything. I will render a carefully scripted series starting tomorrow, Bernie I’m really serious now. A contact I have , a DOD contractor told me Northampton County is going to be in trouble, for reasons. I with Trump on most stuff buy the WH had earlier warnings. On the other hand , the models that were developed earlier came from Chinese and they have seriously— under reported deaths. so the graphics were wrong . I hate MSNBC , but they apparently are privy to one driver alone that knows of about taking bodies to funeral homes for cremation. Another says he witnessed 3,000 urns ,- so 2 events if true excessed reported deaths in China. I’ll let you judge after the fall out.
The mayors pay should have been cut in half after the “new deal” Administration,administrators are to direct daily business. The mayor is now a figure head. This Mayor somehow was on that panel that decided to change the form of leadership while he was without any political influence. So he knew.
Anonymous said...
Falls result in more than 2.8 million injuries treated in emergency departments annually, including over 800,000 hospitalizations and more than 27,000 deaths.
https://www.ncoa.org/news/resources-for-reporters/get-the-facts/falls-prevention-facts/
April 3, 2020 at 4:53 PM
Was that when you fell and hit your head?
By the way: when was the last time you saw semis backed up to emergency rooms to store the dead? I didn't think so.
8:47PM
Morgues are full with the dead not because they have died from corona-virus but because funeral homes are severely limited preparing for funerals and interments.
You seem to think more people are dying from corona than all other medical problems.
Again 27,000 elderly die every year from falls.
Traffic accidents aren't contagious. But every single one is 100% avoidable with a lockdown order. You care about your kids and you put them in cars? Ever? And now you're worried about a virus that kills only a microscopic fraction of the population? The people who are big on science seem to be woefully short on math skills and unable to understand perceived risk.
"By the way: when was the last time you saw semis backed up to emergency rooms to store the dead?"
Chicago '95.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/07/17/chicago-morgue-overwhelmed-as-heat-claims-130/a5020529-be95-4368-92ec-dad705c5c3a8/
After what I read in the news from Saturday 4/5 , the medical people are failing in places as well as the gov't as you say. In Conn. a baby was killed by suffocation and they ( the nurse and hospital) attempted to blame the C19 to cover their ass.
Yesterday in NYC medical people sent multiple C19 cases from the Javits Center to the USN Ship Comfort and now has potentially spread the C19 issue to that ship. This ship was to be used strictly for everyday medical issues. I know things are rough in NYC, but quality, educated people should not and can not make these mistakes. No excuse for poor judgement , lack of oversight and coverups . Very sad the people we need to rely on the most are making life and death mistakes that should not happen.
3.41
"In Conn. a baby was killed by suffocation and they ( the nurse and hospital) attempted to blame the C19 to cover their ass."
try
https://www.courant.com/breaking-news/hc-br-infant-death-coronavirus-positive-20200404-54z75ceqzfei7ajtwskc4ncrua-story.html
" “We define lab-confirmed COVID-19 associated deaths as anyone who has symptoms of COVID-19, tests positive on a COVID-19 test before or around the time of death. We do not determine causality.”
Because the baby tested positive, it was reported properly as a death connected to a positive COVID-19 test result, Cartter said.
" Chief Medical Examiner James Gill’s official cause of death finding is still outstanding."
So claiming suffocation is not correct until the medical examiner rules on cause of death.
3.41
"In Conn. a baby was killed by suffocation and they ( the nurse and hospital) attempted to blame the C19 to cover their ass.
try
https://www.dailywire.com/news/viral-video-candace-owens-accuses-governor-of-lying-about-newborns-coronavirus-linked-death-calls-for-resignation
lets look at her
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candace_Owens
" In February 2020, after the first Americans died in the coronavirus pandemic, she sarcastically tweeted "Now we’re all going to die from Coronavirus."[87] She argued that the United States was suffering from a "doomsday cult" of liberal paranoia."
gee she seems to be a republican activist and she is attacking a Democratic Governor using the death of a child.
Most people would find that repugnant.
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