Without question, this could be an accurate reflection of three battleground states. It is nevertheless important to note that Firehouse Strategies was founded in 2016 by GOP strategists.
The methodology used in this poll, conducted December 3-5, consists of interviews with 1,759 likely 2020 general election voters in Wisconsin (N = 610), Michigan (N = 551), and Pennsylvania (N = 598.) These were via live landline, live cellphone and peer to peer text message to web. The margin of error is reported as +/- 4.1% in Wis., ± 4.3% in Mich., and ± 4.3% in Pa.
A 538 analysis of 15 polls conducted by Firehouse-Optimus gives this GOP-leaning pollster a C/D rating and notes a Republican bias. But in fairness, an earlier poll in September showed Trump behind in the three battleground states.
Whether the poll is accurate or not, it's a pretty clear reflection of GOP strategy. The overall popular vote is meaningless. What matters are votes in the Electoral College, and that is why the battleground states are so important.
This explains why both Trump and VP Pence will be in Hershey today.
41 comments:
The reason they are going to be in Hershey is to evaluate purchasing the Hershey company. Trump wants to make Hershey bars great again!
We're going to keep on restoring America to the greatness it once enjoyed! Trump/Pence 2020!
The place will be sold out with 10,000 people watching big screens outside. I wish I could go, I was at his last visit a couple months back. Great event!
Trump is our greatest president== loof at all he accomplished even with the anti -American dems - deep state and the liberal left media. Trump will win by a landslide most of the American people see what the left is. look at your major cities run the dems also look at new York and calfornia--what a mess....
I held my nose and voted for Trump. I'll do it again, given the options. I never thought he'd win PA, let alone the election 2016. After what's gone on in the last three elections locally and statewide, I don't see how he possibly wins. Rs haven't just been defeated. They've been thrashed. But I was dead wrong last time ....
"Whether the poll is accurate or not, it's a pretty clear reflection of GOP strategy. The overall popular vote is meaningless. What matters are votes in the Electoral College, and that is why the battleground states are so important."
Duh. Hillary learned that running up the score in 12 counties, doesn't earn an electoral victory across 50 states. Polls are largely nonsense, these days. You cite 538, who laughably blew the 2016 election. If you want a solid indicator, watch the London and Vegas lines. They're set by odds makers with lots of skin in the game. All houses in both betting capitals have Trump heavily favored. They're the same ones who saw it coming last time, when the early, big bets broke for Hillary, but the overwhelming majority of smaller bets showed the Trump victory several months out. Early, big bets have gone to Trump, this time. Later breaking smaller bets are also now trending to Trump, and have been only slightly dampened by pending impeachment.
I will no longer vote For president of the U.S. I may as well put my ballot in the garbage can. My vote doesn't count for President. when a candidate can win by as many as 5 million votes and not be elected the whole process becomes a disgraceful sham. Only in America can an idiot lose an election by more than three million votes and still become president. What a disgrace.
5:46 please enlighten me. Top three, GO!
I would find comments like Anon 655am entertaining if it wasn't so sad and uninformed.
So you're complaining that Trump lost a race that wasn't being run? Instead, you're going to not vote in a state where every vote will count in the race that is being run? Trump won PA by 44,292 votes, a .72% margin.
Yeah your vote doesn't count, sure.
That's just inane.
I don't like Trump, I didn't vote for him, and I won't vote for him again. But people, let's deal in the real world instead of some fantasy land. Every vote counts.
Without the electoral college, a large # of states will not have representation in picking the president and it will come down to whomever California, NY, Florida, Texas wants each year.
812 got it right. Do we really want NYC and LA deciding things for us? Take a look at those cities, that's not what I want running anything.
It IS about the Electoral College! Always has been, and for good reason. California is already screwed-up by Democrats beyond repair. We can’t allow that place to determine how the rest of us live our lives.
8:05 Thanks! I'm all set. Don't know how I missed all that!
Quite the readership you have here, Bernie.
People need to realize the electoral count only applies to electing the president. Some states count all their electoral numbers going 100% with he majority of voters. Some do not. All the states mentioned are proportionately represented in the House. Each state gets the same number of senators. This is why it's more important to vote for members of congress. So yeah the larger states do actually have an advantage. Boo-Hoo
Are any political polls accurate ?
@7:30 - Impossible to do just 3 so I had to cut it off and then list only those on the top in the jobs area. Would have gone on forever if expanded to the other areas where President Trump has overcome Dem stonewalling to Make America Great Again. So here you go...let me know if you want the rest of the list:
Almost 4 million jobs created.
More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
Without the electoral college, about a dozen counties in NY, CA, and IL will decide every presidential election. The PA vote (which actually mattered in 2016), would be completely worthless. Presidential campaigns will focus money in just three media markets. Third parties will completely evaporate.
9:49 AM -- Come on. You're not giving Trump credit for the Obama admin's economic record, are you? That would be silly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/06/this-is-what-trump-economy-looks-like/
Polls are polls, small data samples and subject to variances, hence the "margin of error", which contrary to 2016 legend, Trump was well within in the days and weeks leading up to election night. Clinton absolutely screwed herself by believing September/early October polls and in an act of hubris ignored MI, OH, PA & WI, falsely assuming wins there and attempted to "run up the score" by diverting funds and energy in a misguided attempt to flip AZ, FL, NC & TX. The Trump campaign smartly took advantage of the blunder and focused heavily in those "Rust Belt" states and got the results for it.
ANYONE expressing confidence in Trumps re-election (or defeat really) are just partisan cheerleaders. Special elections since 2016, the 2018 midterms and recent local elections have not been kind to Republicans and those trends should be a concern to the "TRUMP 2020" posters here. The Trump base is clearly locked in and not going anywhere. He will automatically get 4 out of 10 voters. 5 out of 10 don't like him and won't vote for him. Trump absolutely needs that 1 out of 10 independent/moderate voter. The bad news for Trump is that most "independent/moderates" tend to be college educated suburban voters who are overwhelmingly voting Dem since 2016 (not totally surprising as independents typically vote against incumbents). In Trumps favor is that the 5 out of 10 are nowhere near agreement on who should be the Dem nominee. So if he can pull in a few independents and the Dems/left aren't totally unified there's a solid chance of a 2016 repeat where he loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral vote.
We had the electoral college forever, it gives some power to small states that actually feed the rest of the nation. California and other states allow anyone with a drivers license to vote and give drivers license to non-citizens.
Whenever the democrats cant win the debate, they want to change the voters, the rules, or rely on a left wing court to get what they want. They are more interested in power than in improving the lives of Americans. They would rather have a dependent electorate than a self reliant citizenry.
Democrats in general actually have a distrust of anyone in business, self employed or self reliant. It has become the party of the lazy, dependent and mediocre. The party of government workers and anyone who believes they are owed sustenance from their neighbors.
I am sure the above class will vote for any democrat,to hell with the long term health of the country. Who is going take care of me when mama and pappa dies?
Trump has pursued to deliver on all his promises, this is an aberration in american politics. If he does not win, you better buckle up and be ready to bar the doors, shutter your windows, and sell off all your paper assets, because the democratic socialsits will want it all.
10.32, it is a long way to Nov. 2020 for both parties, polls today are meaningless as is recent elections. A lot is going to happen in the next 11 months. We can expect more of the same from the dems and the media. It has not destroyed Trump yet, may actually have diminished their credibility and immunized Trump.In the end it will be determined who looks to be the best for the future. The dems do not even have a candidate yet and it is most likely not going to be Joe Biden. His time in the barrel has not nearly begun. The outsider is still the favorite and Biden is not one. Obama was perceived as an outsider. One thing for sure it will be a wild and wooly time till Nov. 2020.
Actually is might be a good idea to expell California from the union, then they can vote the popular vote, lets move the wall to their eastern border, maybe Washington and Oregon want to go along. Quickest way to peace in our time.
@10:17 - No mention was made of WHO created more jobs but, rather, how many jobs President Trump has created. Misstating the points to create a comparison in an attempt to make it a mistake would be silly.
Would you now care to comment on the other 5 points made?
Politics aside (I hate both parties and every single candidate), the Vegas odds are interesting. With Trump holding at a 110-120, there's serious money to be made if he loses. The odds aren't prohibitive, but they're fairly stout in his favor. Polls are interesting. Odds are fascinating.
@10:43 - Dismissing recent election results as meaningless would be foolish. They aren't polls about what might or might not happen, but actual, tangible results of how the country voted. Granted, 11 months is a long way to go, but there currently is no significant difference in the economic environment than there was at the times of any 2017-2019 elections which would/should be a major Trump strength, but it does not seem to be translating to political victories outside of his base which should be a concern to Republicans.
Again, still a long way to go, but the confidence expressed and the assumptions made by either side right now are hilariously naive. Either way the TDS in this country will be off the charts next November. With the D being either Derangement or Detachment...
He is wrecking the opposition with there OWN criminal enterprise! The Dems party is destroying any shred of life left in there OWN party with Hillary going to be strung up for high treason.
11.49. Voters now have the shortest attention span in history. big stories are now insignificant in a week, I believe that voters are now suffering a form of PTSD, likely from daily bombshells and breaking news. The frequent news that Trump is now ruined and destined for jail or worse.
It is possible that we may see the biggest turnout in history or we could also see many voters just tune out completely, and see a very weak turnout. It could definitely go either way. One thing is for sure. Politics as usual IS a thing of the past. Voters are likely to not stand for the likes of Clinton, Bush, Romney, McCain or Biden types in the future.
If you think trump ran a harsh campaign in 2016, you probably have seen nothing compared to what is to come. Last time was a lot of fun for Trump and his supporters, this time there are lots of scores to be settled. It will be a no holds barred fight to the death. The dems and media decided to engage in a winner take all strategy with hopefully no survivors, not Trump, his cabinet or his supporters. They all have it coming.
@12:52 valid point. I do wonder though if there isn't an element of "drama fatigue" that could ultimately be in play next November. Dems are very guilty of fanning the flames, potentially to the point of backlash over any number of supposed Trump transgressions, but without a doubt Trump has routinely given them the material to work with.
I don't think Trump has won over enough of the middle ground to offset portions of the "Never Trump" Republican old school. I think they, along with most independents and moderate Democrats could have been won over with a quiet, professional and less combative White House these past 3 years that worked on easy bipartisan efforts like infrastructure projects and stayed away from court stacking and unfunded tax cuts which got the left screaming to begin with...
My guess is that a lot of people will view the last 4 years as an experiment, where the country tried something new/different that got some results, but the sideshow that came along to get those results not being worth the cost of the aggravation, and voting to reboot the system again.
@1:01 - you care WAY too much about politics. If Democrats and Libs get you that upset you need help. Seriously, get a life.
The padded rooms for these here deriliks posting there incessant babble. The guillotines blades are sharpened like a razor and oiled for the comming extravaganza of trumps 2020 win.
Don’t get mad Bernie get used to it for another term.
Trump 2020
Aww... poor little snowflake.
As "The View" gives Trump yet another hour of free Trump media exposure and hands off to "The Rachael Ray Show" where she does a segment on how "not to feel the bern" in the kitchen.
I looked up puppy rescues on YouTube and auto-play took me right to the Trump show-a-thon it's nearly impossible to get away from folks talking about Trump.
At least Trump supporters don't need to send Trump money the Main Stream Media has it covered.
Now that Trumps owns the media, if only Trump could come up with a way to keep his most likely media blackedout senatorial rival Bernie Sanders in Washington and off the campaign trail.
Trump/Pelosi until we are all equally unworthy and hated, a misanthropes playground.
Damm the campaign concert was standing room only in Hershey!
fake news
The Republicans won the impeachment hearings because they yelled their questions and had mean faces.
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