Chris Casey Predicts Hyman Will Win Allentown

(from Doug Slifkin's Facebook page)

Abraham Lincoln is thought to have once said, "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt." I prove this truism on a near daily basis here. But fellow LV Blogger Chris Casey is blogging less and researching more.This includes polling. On the basis of three polls he's conducted since the primary, he believes Nat Hyman will win the election. He has kindly agreed to allow me to reproduce his analysis below. .

Here is an explanation showing how the five mayoral candidates trended during the three October Polls. The first and easiest is Solomon Tembo, who went from one of 300 voters in the first poll, to three in the second, and 4 in the last. So going into election day, Tembo is at 1.3 % If my baseline estimate of 11,000 voters participate in Allentown, Tembo would likely get somewhere between 125 and 150 votes. As a candidate, Tembo's sole function seems to be taking much needed votes from candidates not named Pawlowski. In each poll. all those who said they were voting for Tembo were registered as members of the Democratic Party. That is not to say there are not voters registered as Independents out there who would vote for Tembo, but of the 300 likely voters we received responses from, that's who said they were voting for him.

Next up is John Ingram. Ingram has shown the most improvement percentage wise of the two Non traditional candidates actually on the ballot. He started out at 13 of 300 voters in the first poll, 21 of 300 in the second, and then 29 of 300 in the last one. In the first poll, Ingram had 10 Ds, 2 R's, and 1 Indy. In the second, he had 18 D's 2 R's, and 1 Indy. In the last poll, Ingram had 20D's and 9 R's and no Indy's. I can't explain the jump in R's, but I will let others make conjecture on that. Could be a statistical anomaly, or not. Ingram is at 9.6 %, and extrapolating that with likely turnout, Ingram will likely get somewhere between 975 and 1050 votes.

Now to our biggest climber, Write in candidate and current President of City Council, Ray O'Connell. He went from 42 to 53 to 61 over the course of the three polls or from 14% to 20%. In the first poll, Ray had 38 of 200 D's, 2 of 60 R's, and 2 Indy's that said they supported him. In the second poll, he had 49 D's, 2 R's, and 2 Indy's. In the last poll, Ray had 59 D's, I R and I Indy. The number of D's apparently willing to write in Ray's name seems to be climbing, and a large in kind donation from area Democrats is helping him with his cause. If Ray maintains this amount of support thru election day, I can see him possibly getting somewhere between 2200 and 2500 votes. That won't be enough to win, but if he really is pulling most of his support from Democrats, The pain he is causing both Pawlowski and Hyman will cut across both equally, and maybe, just maybe, hurt Pawlowski more than Hyman. This one is just too fluid to call.

The most controversial and interesting candidate is obviously incumbent Mayor Ed Pawlowski. Ed started out at 98 of 300 in the first poll, 87 of 300 in the second, but has dropped to a distressing (for him) 77 of 300 in the last one. I believe this might be why he launched that "Hail Mary" of a legal counter attack a few days ago asking that the indictments be dismissed. It is my opinion that he is trying to reassure his base of true believers.

Pawlowski has seen his support in October drop from 32.6 % to 25.6%, and that puts his likely vote totals UNDER 2750 votes. He needs a minimum of 3300 to have a shot at this race, or a turnout under 10000 in Allentown. HE NEEDS his base out there, and he needs his opponents to play dead. I do not think that will happen. In the last poll, Ed had support from 58 of 200 D's, 9 of 40 R's, and 10 of the Indy's. All of his lost support (21 of 21 voters) came from his D support. I believe his strong R and Indy support is likely rooted in the Syrian and other minority communities. His R and Indy Support never wavered, staying at 9 and 10 respectively.

Finally, we get to Republican Nat Hyman. Like Pawlowski, as time went on, and the three other candidates started campaigning heavily, his initial support eroded. Nat started out with 121 of 300 40.3%), dropped to 109 (36.3%) in the second, and now 102 of 300 (34%) In the last poll Nat had 47 of 60 R's, 27 of 200D's, and 28 of the 40 Indy's.

In the first poll Nat had 42 of 60 R's, 52 of 200 D's and 27 Indys. But while his R support rose from 42 to 44 and then to 47 of 60, his D support shrank drastically from 52, to 39 to finally 27 of 200 D's. His Indy support barely wavered, starting at 27 of 40, down to 26, then up to 28 of 40.

So right now, with no major shifts taking place, I think I can safely predict that Nat Hyman will receive in excess of 3500 votes and likely win a plurality, and the Mayoral election.

Almost all of Hyman and Pawlowski's lost support went to O'Connell and Ingram, which I think is a true indicator that more and more voters are looking to alternatives to the two established mainstream political parties, But for them to actually chose an outside option at the polls, that is another thing.

HOWEVER. There are at least TEN PERCENT of the voters who are yet undecided, and will likely make their choice while standing in front of the touch screen. I feel pretty strongly that Hyman will win a narrow victory, but I would be remiss to ignore that statistically it looks like around 1000 likely voters are still up for grabs, and there's no telling what a few extra hundred people at the polls due to GOTV efforts on Tuesday can do to tip an election this difficult to predict. But I am putting my hard thought out data out here for consideration, so have at it.

My Take:  My greatest fear is that Fed Ed will be re-elected. I love Ray O'Connell, who embodies everything that is right about Allentown. Ray has every right to continue his campaign as a write-in candidate. But he can't win. He needed far more support from the Democratic party, including some of its failed candidates, than he received. Also, I doubt that more than half of those who said they would write in Ray will make the effort.

What I like about Hyman is that he is committed to Allentown. Unlike many business leaders who relocated to the 'burbs, he stayed in the Queen City and raised his family there. He has managed to run two very successful businesses because he is smart, energetic and takes a creative approach to problems. His biggest obstacle is that Allentown is a one-party town, which is precisely why it became politically corrupt. Under these circumstances, a vote for someone who can think outside the box is a no-brainer. But Allentown voters have proven time and again tat they have no brains.