2017 Election - Winners and Losers

Winners

1) Civility.- Tuesday's election was a firm rebuke, not of Republicans per se, but of Donald Trump's presidency and authoritarianism. In the NorCo Exec race, Democrat Lamont McClure defeated Republican incumbent John Brown with 53.8% of the vote. Democrats captured four of the five county council seats up for grabs. The balance of power has switched from a 7-2 GOP majority to a 6-3 Democratic board.

In Lehigh County, Democrat Phillips Armstrong defeated Republican Brad Osborne in the Exec race with 52.69% of the vote. 

This Democratic surge was seen elsewhere in southeastern Pa. According to The Inky, two Delaware County Council seats - the only two up for grabs - went blue for the first time. Four Chester County row offices also went Democratic for the first time.* Bucks County elected four Democratic row officers for the first time in over 30 years.

Democrats also made inroads in Pittsburgh 'burbs.

What happened in the Lehigh Valley and Pennsylvania is also what happened in Virginia and New Jersey, although New Jersey may be more Democratic.

Last year, billionaire Donald Trump attracted Lehigh Valley already conservative Democratic voters by appealing to their darker natures and appearing less elitist and out-of touch than Hillary Clinton. But after a year's worth of ugly tweets that have made us a laughing stock internationally, citizens have become Trump-weary. Their vote on Tuesday is an early indication that Season 2 of the Trump reality show may very well be cancelled.

"This was a rejection of anger and narrowness inside the Republican Party," said Ohio Governor John Kasich, who is rumored to be interested in Trump's job. "I think the party has to sit down and look at itself and say, 'Who are we appealing to?' If we're just appealing to a handful of people in our own base, I think you don't win. You have to be broader than that."

2) Women. - Though a woman was rejected as a presidential candidate only last year, they were quite popular in this year's municipal and judicial races. Three women - Peg Ferraro, Lori Vargo Heffner and Tara Zrinski - were elected to Northampton County's nine-person county council. This is a first. in Lehigh County, Amy Zanelli was elected as a Lehigh Commissioner, representing west Bethlehem and Allentown's east side. But the big story is that women, Democrat and Republican, swept in the statewide appellate court races.

This was bad news for Northampton County Judge Emil Giordano, who unfortunately came up short in his second bid for the Superior Court. But without question, women are under-represented in Pennsylvania government. According to a recent study by  Representation 2020, Pennsylvania ranks #49 out of 50 states in terms of the percentage of women in elected office.

We did beat Mississippi.

3) Facebook. - Although anyone in high school seems to hate Facebook, we baby boomers in particular  love it. This was the first municipal campaign I've seen in which a concerted effort was made through to reach voters via Facebook, primarily in Lamont McClure's executive campaign. He used it to boost messages and create more of a buzz.

I decided to try it myself.

I created a "Say NO to Seth Vaughn" Facebook page, drawing attention to his abysmal 64% attendance over the past three years and his "So what!" "Who cares!" attitude about his duty. "I'm still going to win the election next year, pal," is what he said to me last year after I took him to task for missing the most important budget hearing of the year, i.e. the one in which Council members propose amendments. I boosted a post on that page on the Friday before the election. It reached nearly 2,000 Northampton County Facebook users over the next two days, resulting in 61 "likes" and 21 shares.

Total cost to me? $32.13. Cost to Seth Vaughn? Hard to say, but he finished ninth of 10 candidates in the NorCo County Council race.

But that's nothing compared to a devastating Facebook video posted by the Northampton County Democratic Committee on election eve. (You can see that video on YouTube). In the span of just three or four days, that video was viewed by 27,000 Northampton County Facebook users. This resulted in 410  "likes" and 99 shares.. This video was created by former Easton City Council member Jeff Warren, a principal at Progressive Consulting Strategies. 

4) Dr. Paige Van Wirt -  She staged an unsuccessful write-in campaign in Bethlehem for City Council against four incumbents who had no challengers. Although she knew she had little chance of succeeding, she gave Bethlehem voters something they previously lacked - a choice. She energized pockets of Bethlehem, especially in the north side. This increased turnout of Democratic voters made her an instant friend with Lamont McClure, whose victory margin in Bethlehem was 1,902 votes.

In addition to promoting her own campaign, Dr. Van Wirt made it a point to stand by other women who were running, and attended the County Council debate.

Although she may have fallen short in her quest for City Council, there may be vacancies in the County soon. She would make an excellent Director of Human Services, and has very specific ideas about combatting the opioid crisis, a topic that stumped everyone else.   

5) Steve Barron -  Northampton County's Controller, Steve Barron, purchased an autodialer several years ago. He has used it to help Democratic candidates reach voters through polling and robocalls. Although campaign finance reports show payments to him, he does not benefit personally. He uses the money received to purchase minutes.

He helped with several robocalls for McClure, including one prepared by DA John Morganelli.     

6) The Lamont McClure campaign. -  Whether you like him or not, McClure's executive campaign is the most masterful executive race I've ever seen. If his stewardship of the County is anything like the way he managed his campaign, the people of Northampton County can rest easy for he next four years.

McClure's opponent, John Brown, used precious campaign funds to repay debt to himself. He also paid out large chunks for a campaign manager and a consultant.

McClure, in contrast, did everything himself. His webpage as free. He wrote his own ads, though he did use a designer. He paid no consultant or campaign manager. He relied on volunteers like Jim Schlener, who planted the signs you saw placed every three feet, and Barron. The money he saved went to more mailers and TV time.

McClure engaged in a classic negative campaign, and was able to paint Brown into a corner on a new jail. Brown, who likes to play his cards close to his vest, was revealed as nontransparent and secretive. By the time he finally ruled out a jail at any location other than where it already is, it was too late.

McClure also is the first executive candidate I've seen to make heavy use of Facebook. By contrast, brown had three different Facebook pages, which just confused people.

7) Northampton County employees and retirees. - There are 2,200 Northampton County employees, and close to 1,000 retirees. They were on the receiving end of numerous county vacancies. At the jail, corrections officers were placed on mandatory overtime as vacancies hit 30. This endangered lives. In addition, Brown decided unilaterally to cut health benefits paid to county workers. Most people in the private sector would have no empathy on this issue, which was rarely mentioned by McClure's campaign. But he made sure that these employees voted. 

8) John Morganelli. - Northampton County's affable District Attorney has been sought out as a Congressional candidate who will bring the same civility and decency to the office that Congressman Charlie Dent has done. Dent is a centrist who leans right. Morganelli is a centrist who leans left. Morganelli is actually popular in conservative circles like the tea party because of his tough stance on topics like crime, the death penalty and illegal immigration.  He has been waiting for this election to decide whether to run.

He has his answer.

Losers

1) Northampton County GOP - Last year, General Lee Snover and the Northampton County GOP delivered the county to Trump after an energized election that included flash mobs and numerous volunteers. That seemed to go to her head. Snover lost sight that her main function is to recruit Republicans and get them elected in her own county. She instead alienated Congressman Charlie Dent, the most popular Republican in the Lehigh Valley. She followed that up with a "Chairman's Dinner" in which she promoted supposed Trump acolytes like Justin Simmons for Congress, while snubbing three of the four GOP Council candidates.

2) The Express Times.  - This supposed daily newspaper provided no pre-election coverage and only began writing about municipal races on election day. The Morning Call provided excellent coverage of the Allentown Mayoral campaign, and there was some exposure of the Northampton County races. Tom Shortell covered the Executive debate and columnist Bill White wrote several columns. But his column focusing on Ron Angle's last place finish in the Council race strikes me as mean-spirited. I admit I am a bit biased here and consider Ron a close friend  But what was the point, except to gloat? Angle has been out of office for several years, so Bill White was hardly afflicting the comfortable.     

3) Justin Simmons. - Simmons has predicated his opportunistic Congressional gambit on the theory that he is a Trump acolyte who will drain the swamp. He thought nothing of trashing Charlie Dent, who helped him raise money and endorsed him in the past. By now, it should be dawning on Simmons that the 15th Congressional district includes numerous Republicans and Democrats who detest Trump, as well as numerous ordinary citizens who will be put off by the way Simmons went after Dent.

4) John Brown. - During his first term in office, NorCo Exec John Brown ran for state auditor general. During his second term, he was going to challenge Matt Cartwright in the 17th Congressional District. His poor showing in Northampton County is going to force him to rethink that strategy.     

5) Allentown - What can I say?  Leave it to the people of Allentown to elect the worst possible candidate for Mayor despite being provided with 54 good reasons from no less an authority than the United States of America to vote him out.
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* An Inky news account indicates that in 1799, these seats were won by the Democratic-Republican party, and confuses that with the Democratic party. In reality, the Democratic-Republican party is the party formed by Jefferson and other Southern aristocrats to espouse state rights, and by extension, slavery.

Updated 8 am. In my original story, I incorrectly stated that Democrats gained a Lehigh County Comm'r sear.