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Friday, October 17, 2014

How Will The State Races Play Out This Year in the Lehigh Valley

I recently had a discussion with one of those evil political consultants who get paid zillions of dollars to give politicians advice. He talked to me for free, or at least I hope it's free. Here's what he tells me about this year's state races, as they play out in the Lehigh Valley. The Wolf-Corbett race is the biggest one, so naturally, I forgot to ask him about it. But he talked about the others.

Scavello v. Aurand. - Mario will crush, possibly by as many as 20 points. The reason? Monroe County Democrats. They like Scavello.

Browne v. Felton. - Walter Felton, who is also the Lehigh County Dem Chair, alienated nearly half the Lehigh County Democrats in that race. I question why he's really even running, unless it's to prevent anyone of substance from challenging the State Senator who served as J.B. Reilly's NIZ architect.

McNeill v. Molony. - Though Danny McNeil should easily win this race, lots of people don't know him in the new district. He will still win comfortably.

Harhart v. Powell v. Molovisnky. - This will be another in a long string of cakewalks for Julie Harhart, an incumbent who does not offend. Powell will be crushed and Independent Michael Molovinsky is not even a factor. I spoke to Molovinsky about this prediction, and promises to defy the odds.

Hahn v. Altieri. - I neglected to ask about this one, but think Marcia is a safe bet.

Scwheyer v. Ramos. - The first race in a new, predominately Latino district, will go to the Gringo.

Simmons v. Beyer. - This is a race Beyer can win. His supporters are all motivated, but they need to bring Democrats who do not usually vote in these off-year elections.
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 17, 2014 at 1:02 AM

    Bernie you left out the Alteri-
    Vaughn race. I think it is a slam dunk but your seer didn't see that one.

    As for McNeil, I agree. It shows that even someone who is functionally itinerate can hold public office. So maybe
    Alteri has a shot.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousOctober 17, 2014 at 1:20 AM

    Beyer has no shot. Bar Johnson needs to get over her Simmons obsession, it's kind of creepy. He's down double digits and Allentown is out of district now. Sorry Bar.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Bernie O'HareOctober 17, 2014 at 1:29 AM

    1:02, After writing about both Hahn and Altieri this week, you'd think I'd remember that one. I forgot to ask about it. But i added a sentence stating Marcia should cruise. That's me speaking, not an expert.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousOctober 17, 2014 at 7:34 AM

    "This is a race Beyer can win."

    No it's not. 1:20 is spot on. The district used to be competitive, but it is now a Republican gerrymander.

    Interesting analysis in SD-40 because it was Monroe County Dems that voted for Aurand in the primary. Rather than focus on real issues facing the district and state Aurand chooses to focus on abortion. Aurand seems far too liberal for that State Senate seat. I predict he will lose both counties handily despite Wolf's strong showing for governor in the same district.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousOctober 17, 2014 at 7:39 AM

    Parsons and Joe Cap both had a better chance of beating Scavello than Aurand. The Dems in Monroe who like Mario swung the vote. Prediction Scavello 56% Errand 44%

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousOctober 17, 2014 at 7:47 AM

    Another observation: Many of the voters in SD 40 have no clue about the new district. They don't know the candidates, or don't trust either one. Expect many write-ins. In addition to the primary losers, Lisa Boscola will get votes. So will the other re-districted senators. The total percentage for the 2 main candidates may dip below 100%.

    I also expect write-ins for Grucela, Emrick, Micky Mouse, donald Duck, none of the above, and anybody but Scavello.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousOctober 17, 2014 at 7:07 PM

    The active Democrats in Monroe County cannot stand Scavello and his bully tactics and two faced flip flopping. Mario has a track record of twelve years on achieving none of the things that voters sent him to Harrisburg for. Seniors who looked to Scavello for property tax relief have figured out he can't deliver, passed on or moved to another state. Certainly Mario has made thousands of birthday phone calls, hosted many a school group in Harrisburg and laid on senior and veteran fairs for 12 years. He has the name recognition in Monroe County. The Northampton County part of the 40th is virgin teriitory for Scavello and for 10 years he's tried to shut the county out of Casino Gaming funds and prevent NCC from getting Monroe County money. I think its much tighter than your GOP consultant says.

    ReplyDelete

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