Will Gov't Shutdown Boost LV Dems?

I voted for Romney. I opposed Obamacare, which obviously needs a major overhaul. But like most Americans who believe in the democratic process, I am offended that some three dozen tea party Republicans would attempt to hold the country hostage because of their disdain for a law that withstood a constitutional challenge in a conservative Supreme Court. They've looked ridiculous. "You don't negotiate by putting a gun to the other persons' head, or worse, putting a gun to the American people's head," President Obama said yesterday. House Republicans have a year to repair the damage they've done to themselves. But Lehigh Valley republicans are not so lucky. Just as many Democrats were swept out of office locally four years ago, many Republican hopefuls are in a bad way.

In Lehigh County, the Commissioner races are for district seats, not at-large. So the power of personality should be more powerful than political party. But in the Executive race, Scott Ott should be worried.

There are no Republican City Council candidates in Allentown. There are no Republicans running for Commissioner, either. That's no mistake. GOP Chair Wayne Woodman would probably deny this, but I believe that the reason no Republicans are running is to depress the turnout in a heavily Democratic city. The fewer Democrats who vote in Allentown, the better Scott Ott's chances of being elected Executive.

But the best laid plans of mice and party bosses gang aft aglay.  Michael Donovan decides to run for Allentown mayor as an independent, which will increase turnout. Then incumbent Mayor Edwin Pawlowski decides he'd like to be Governor, which means he has to win in Allentown convincingly to prove he's popular. That means even more Allentown voters and more democrats. Then, tea party Republicans decide to shut down the government, and do it in a way that makes them look like idiots. That makes Democrats, even contrary democrats like me, more likely to vote for a Democrat.

So just as Scott Ott gave Don Cunningham a scare four years ago, Democrat Tom Muller could easily eke out a victory in Lehigh County's Executive race.

In Northampton County, things look much worse for Republicans. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan got a majority of the votes in a three-way primary, and is already steamrolling his way to victory over relatively unknown Republican Bangor mayor John Brown. County Council candidates are latching onto his coattails, and have belatedly realized that it's better to run together than splintering off.

To make matters worse, all but Peg Ferraro of the Republican candidates are tied to the Lehigh Valley Tea Party. Mat Benol is a former Chair, while Hayden Phillips likes to talk about Agenda 21 and gun rights. In the eyes of most Democrats and many independents, this will be unhelpful. It's conceivable that Democrats will walk away with all five Council seats, although Republican Peg Ferraro should survive the onslaught.

This is not a good thing. Candidates should be elected or defeated based on their own positions on the issues, not what some goof in Washington is saying. It's how a bad Democrat like Tom O'Donnell can get elected.