Simmons Clinging to Razor Thin, 25-Vote Lead, in Lehigh County

Justin Simmons

State Rep. Justin Simmons represents the 131st legislative, a hodge podge of  blue and red precincts. It includes much of both Allentown's south side and Salisbury Township, areas dominated by blue collar Democrats. But it also includes J.B. Reilly country in the Saucons, dominated by blue bloods as opposed to blue collars. So no matter who sits on the 131st throne, it's best not to get too comfortable.

Two years ago, Simmons came out of nowhere to knock off Karen Beyer in a hotly contested Republican primary. I thought Simmons was morally wounded after that dogfight, but he went on to win the general election against Michael Horton, a weak candidate whose residence there was questionable.

Kevin Deely

In office, Simmons has led by example. He refuses to take a state car, per diems or participate in a pension. He's the state rep who quietly got the ball rolling on the NIZ settlement, in which Allentown and surrounding municipalities were at war over a tax grab to fund a hockey arena and office buildings in the downtown. He even managed to get some legislation passed.

Easton High School match teacher Kevin Deely, in contrast to Simmons, is pretty much a one-issue candidate. At a Business Matters debate a few weeks before the election, it was painfully apparent that, aside from education issues, Deely has no real knowledge or understanding of state issues. You'd think that Simmons would cruise to re-election on autopilot, but something happened.

Barack Obama.

Two years ago, there was no Presidential election driving large numbers of Democrats to the polls. But this time, the lever pullers came out in force. And all of a sudden, there's a horse race.

After being down most of the night, Simmons emerged in the early morning hours with a 562-vote lead. But that's unofficial.

The official vote count began in Lehigh County yesterday. Without the absentee ballots, Simmons would have lost.

Machine Numbers:

Justin Simmons          Rep   12273
Kevin T. Deely Jr.     Dem   12512

Absentee Numbers:

Justin Simmons          Rep   678
Kevin T. Deely Jr.     Dem   414

Total Machine and Absentee:

Justin Simmons          Rep   12951
Kevin T. Deely Jr.     Dem   12926

As you can see, he is up by a scant 25 votes in Lehigh County.

In Northampton County, the official count begins today. It will likely continue for several days because there are over 500 provisional ballots county-wide. Simmons is up by 430 votes in Northampton County, so I think it's highly unlikely that Deely will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

But you never know. Both candidates will be sending lawyers, guns and money to the festivities.

Elections officials in both counties will be unable to conclude the official count until November 13. That's when absentee ballots are due from the military and emergency first responders.

Updated 10:25 AM: I originally called this a "razor sharp" lead. A reader corrected my error, and I have changed my headline to "razor thin." .

Updated 12:15 PM: Simmons Lead In Lehigh County Down to One Vote! - Don't think one vote makes a difference? Think again. After going through the provisional ballots, Simmons' lead in Lehigh County has shrunk to just one vote. His firewall is Northampton County, where he is still up by 430 votes. Provisional ballots are being examined there now, but officials are not expected to hit his district until Wednesday.