... according to The Morning Call's latest poll, which now shows LV Congressman Charlie Dent has a 49-39 lead. Independent Jake Towne is polling at just 3%.
Now I'm no polling expert, but pollster Chris Borick asks this question of Callahan, "Where is he going to make up that ground?"
Updated 9:51 PM: CQPolitics concludes, "Dent in a strong position in a district President Barack Obama won by 16 points in 2008."
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
Local Government TV
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Sunday, September 19, 2010
27 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
Why should we believe anything the Mcall says?
ReplyDeleteTheir reporting is mostly like yours at times, speculative!
Callahan is toast. He's an empty suit who has badly mismanaged Bethlehem. All D's will pay the price for Obama's failed economic recovery strategies.
ReplyDeleteLets see.. Bethlehem is in the red now and not paying its bills. Library, Pension etc... Next year it is expected to have an $8.5 million gap to fill. This is all despite the casino revenue, host fee etc... Just imagine Bethlehem's finances if there were no casino. This is all on the current City administration's hands. Too bad for the the City residents, sooner or later, you will have to pay. A huge tax increase is looming to pay these debts.
ReplyDeleteThat Borick quote jumped out me too when I read the article.
ReplyDeleteAs for Towne: I was critical earlier when Dent had actively tried to keep Towne out of the debates. To me it looked like the political maneuvering of someone concerned about lost votes. However, this close to the election, and only pulling 3%, I now think it is reasonable that he not be included in debates per the sponsors' guidelines.
Finally, the numbers are obviously very good news for Dent, but not so dominating that he risks supporters staying home thinking its in the bag. That is good. Though a related variable, of course, is overall voter turnout...we do also have the Toomey/Sestak, and Corbet/Onerato races.
Fall back and punt, like any good democrat, play the race card!!!!!
ReplyDelete"Why should we believe anything the Mcall says? "
ReplyDeleteAre you saying the MC would deliberate;y fabricate poll results?
Not saying they would deliberately fabricate results it's just that their fact finding ways are subject.
ReplyDeletebernie , you said the morning call polls don't mean a thing remember ? you said if they meant anything ron paul would be president ~ just saying ~
ReplyDeleteThat's not exact;y right. What I did say is that online polls, whether they are here or at TMC or ET, are completely meaningless. If thry did, Ron Paul would be President bc he won those unscientific online polls.
ReplyDeleteThis poll is a horse of a different color. I'm still a lttle leeery of it, but appears to at least have an objective basis.
You could get a more valid survey with a link to Survey Monkey. At least you could be honest about the bias.
ReplyDeleteThen you do not know what some of us do about Pollsters in the LV.
ReplyDelete"You could get a more valid survey with a link to Survey Monkey."
ReplyDeleteYou're probably right. Given the Morning Call's bias against Dent, the actual numbers are probably much worse for Callahan.
So the incumbent is uhder 50%. The independents know Dent better than Callahan yet they haven't swung to him.
ReplyDeleteCould spell trouble for Dent.
"Could spell trouble for Dent."
ReplyDeleteYoure clearly reading the wrong poll, or are delusional.
7:44, your statement is frequently made at LV Independent, that if Dent isn't above 50% he's in trouble.
ReplyDelete1. the poll showed that with Towne out, he would have been.
2. Regardless, considering that Callahan was in the 30s, and only in the 65% range in his OWN party, I don't think Dents 49% should "spell(s) trouble for Dent"....its not over until its over, but the mantra of Dent is vulnerable if not over 50% is weak and wishful thinking.
3. FYI, that the popular (amongst Dems) Bill Clinton won the 1992 election with a wopping 43% of the popular vote (thanks to a viable independent candidate who pulled votes from Bush I. Dent is at 49% to Callahan's 39%. If Callahan can't carry more than 65% of his own party, I can't imagine him capturing 100% of the remaining undecided voters.
Couple the Democratic numerical advantage in registered voters (at least in the NorCo part of the 15th), the fact that the Democratic mayor of the nicest of the Valleys three cities can't poll more than 39%.....
ReplyDelete"Bernie O'Hare said...
ReplyDeleteThat's a bullshit number from an online poll. As I indicated last night, if online polls had any validity, Ron Paul would be President. 1:40 PM"
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"Bernie O'Hare said...
"Anyone know why 70 percent of valley respondents oppose privatization of Gracedale? That is a significant percentage"
That's a bullshit result bnased on an unreliable online poll, the kind that elect Ron Paul President. 9:20 PM"
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Bernie, do the above quotes look familiar to you?
Well they should....they are DIRECT QUOTES FROM YOU!!!!! They clearly express your feelings about "online polls"
I happen to agree with the feelings you expressed in the above quotes FROM YOU!!!!
Now that the "online polls" favor your argument you are willing to support them and use them for your blog and your argument.
This is typical of you and your lopsided and biased blog that supports only what you want it to. You are a hypocrite in its truest form.
Either you like the polls, and believe in them or you don't!!
I don't know if you're being purposely thick or if you're just plain stupid. I do not trust online polls because they are unscientific. But The Morning Call poll IS NOT an online poll, but a scientific poll.
ReplyDeleteTypical O'Hare fact hiding...you don't like my point so you delete or exclude it.
ReplyDeleteI would have hoped you have changed your tactics from when you duped that woman out of money and lost your license to practice law.
What a shame...we are all given a chance to change, yet some take it, and some continue on the same road.
I wish you the best.
May your cholesterol level be your downfall.
ReplyDeleteSix more weeks of negative ads. Let me see a poll a week out.
ReplyDeleteI think the Mcall poll is spot on concerning DENT/CALLAHAN, but I question the methodology and their approach, as to how it pertains to Jake Towne. I feel they may have skewed it to lessen his numbers, what I see and what they are saying don't add up.
ReplyDeleteIn Fairness to Callahan, wasn't this poll done with only a small number of phone calls?
ReplyDeleteOur Charlie, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy kingdom come, thy will be done, in the Valley as it is in Heaven. Give us this day, our daily veterans' certificate of appreciation, and forgive us our medical bills as we forgive those who can't get medical insurance.
ReplyDeleteThat's pretty good.
ReplyDeleteChris Casey said...
ReplyDeleteI think the Mcall poll is spot on concerning DENT/CALLAHAN, but I question the methodology and their approach, as to how it pertains to Jake Towne. I feel they may have skewed it to lessen his numbers, what I see and what they are saying don't add up.
11:58 PM
WHY would the morning call "skew" their poll to reduce Jake towne's numbers? It's not like hes competitive in any sense of the word, even thogugh he's probably crazy enough to believe he is.
Dont know that your seeing where, but all the rest of us are seeing is a self-important pompus blowhard with delusions of grandeur.
"Dont know that your seeing where, but all the rest of us are seeing is a self-important pompus blowhard with delusions of grandeur."
ReplyDeleteYou described Angle to a tee. Now tell us how you feel about Towne!!