NPR, which just featured Lehigh Valley blog Junk Drawer, has commissioned polling firms (Democrat and Republican) to survey sixty Congressional battleground districts – including the Fifteenth. The result is good news for Charlie Dent.Of voters in the districts with a Republican Congressman, 49 percent would definitely re-elect the incumbent while only 37 percent think it’s time for “someone else”. If the election were held today, voters in those same districts would re-elect their Congressman by a margin of 52-39. Even more impressively, in those same districts, Republican candidates generically hold a 16-point lead, 53-37.
Earlier this year, an internal poll by the Dent Campaign showed Charlie Dent with a commanding lead of 53-27 over Democrat John Callahan in a three-way race. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll later showed that Charlie Dent enjoys a 12-point lead over Callahan. The NPR poll is consistent with results showing Charlie Dent well ahead of John Callahan.
“This verifies that local voters still view Charlie Dent as the best candidate to represent them on the important issues of the day in Congress,” said Dent guru Shawn Millan in a news release. “And it’s bad news for John Callahan, whose campaign is run by a national party operative and has done nothing but recycle Washington talking points. His campaign is out of touch and sinking fast.”
Just checked out the poll you posted. What seems even more damning for the Callahan camp is that the 2 of the Rep districts (20% of the poll) are heavily D (LA-02 and HI-01). That must skew the numbers.
ReplyDeletewhat you say may be true, but polls that are not specific to this congressional district are simply an act of mental maturbation.
ReplyDeleteBernie,
ReplyDeleteMaybe a pollster will dissect the results for those of us who don't have an understanding of how political polls work? We'd love to learn more about the process?
Also, is this an appropriate use of taxpayer funds for NPR to conduct a poll of this nature in the first place? Anyone...
Obviously the Dent campaign is doing some narrative-setting with this poll, which of course is their right since every campaign cherry-picks the parts of polls that favor their candidate. But back in reality, people should understand that the political science research is pretty clear on this topic. If an incumbent is polling under 50%, the race is a toss-up, no matter how large his lead in the spread. Also, polls conducted before September are notoriously unreliable. So until September, if you're looking to tune out the spin from both sides, the number to focus on is Dent's topline number, and whether or not it's over/under 50%.
ReplyDeleteJonathan, the simple reality is that this is the third poll in which Charlie Dent has a very commanding lead over Callahan. Double digits. I'd agree that polls conducted closer to the election are more reliable. That makes sense.
ReplyDelete"Maybe a pollster will dissect the results for those of us who don't have an understanding of how political polls work? We'd love to learn more about the process?
ReplyDeleteAlso, is this an appropriate use of taxpayer funds for NPR to conduct a poll of this nature in the first place? Anyone..."
1) I am unqualified to really dissect polls results. Not one of my strengths. Like you, I'd be happy to hear from someone who understyands the process better than I.
2) NPR using taxpayer funds to pay for a poll? Since they are not advocating for either side, it is legal, but I's agree they should use their resources for other journalistic efforts.
like a million other things, I have examined the constitution and I'll be damned if I can find any authority for the federal government to fund something like NPR.
ReplyDeleteIf it's important, people who love it shoudl pay for it.
I guess they fund this stuff in Europe, so we have to also
Do you realize how silly that sounds? Can you imagine how long the Constitution would be if things like that had to be spelled out?
ReplyDeleteNPR has no constituitional right to taxpayer funds and nobody ever made that claim.
Also, is this an appropriate use of taxpayer funds for NPR to conduct a poll of this nature in the first place? Anyone...
ReplyDelete7:42 AM
We need some wealthy lawyer to challenge this issue.
"Also, polls conducted before September are notoriously unreliable."
ReplyDeleteWow, talk about in depth analysis. Is this really where Callahan apologists are stooping? That's like saying, the MLB standings in June do not necessarily represent who will be in the playoffs in September...well duh, no kidding. (But, notice the Yankees are tied for first) Maybe these polls arent perfect, but i dont think they should be discounted.
it's a generic poll and never states the names of the candidates. several weaknesses in addition: are the D candidates credible candidates?, how much more name recognition do each of the R's have, how much money has been raised by anybody?
ReplyDeleteAll of these questions have far greater impact than generic R vs D polls. This election will be closer than the 2006 election with no name/money Dirtypol. Will it be enough for Callahan? Who knows right now.
Looks like the Tea Baggers are still upset that Dent won the primary.
ReplyDelete"Also, is this an appropriate use of taxpayer funds for NPR to conduct a poll of this nature in the first place? Anyone...
7:42 AM
We need some wealthy lawyer to challenge this issue.
9:37 AM"
Ironic that Geeting comments about the unreliability of this poll when not 2 weeks ago he blogged a hit piece on Dent based on some ABC News/Washington Post national poll.
ReplyDeleteGeeting uses the results in that poll to say "this is clearly a terrible mess for Charlie Dent." NOW, however he wants you to dismiss these results because it isnt September??? Typical extremist, only sees what he wants to see, and then dismisses anything that contrdicts the narrative. Hypocrisy.
If this is true
ReplyDelete"NPR has no constituitional right to taxpayer funds and nobody ever made that claim." as BO stated,
Then why are they receiving taxpayer funds?
"If this is true
ReplyDelete"NPR has no constituitional right to taxpayer funds and nobody ever made that claim." as BO stated,
Then why are they receiving taxpayer funds?"
You don't need a constitutional right to taxpayer funds to receive them. You would only need a constitutional article denying funding to not exist. The constitution is an open ended document. The government doesn't need express permission in order to give funds, it just needs the constitution to allow it by not definitively denying it the ability.
If we heard it only once, we'd ignore it but several posts lately have hinted that Bethlehem's chief executive officer is not doing his job at all but rather someone else is handling matters. If this is so, aren't Bethlehem's taxpayers getting short-changed?
ReplyDeleteDialog a little off topic of the NPR poll itself, but11:05's view would be a very loose liberal reading of the Constitution, which has been the norm of BOTH parties especially since the New Deal. If one has a liberal ideology that government should fix all problems in society, then one has to believe that as 11:05 says, "the Constitution is an open ended document" in order for the government to have the power to do so. If you believe the government should be limited, then one would have a stricter interpretation. Most Americans fall in the gray shades between those two points, though the popular rhetoric seems to swing like a pendulum between the "poles".
ReplyDelete11:05 here.
ReplyDeleteLighthouse, you're right. Both parties have been using very liberal readings of the Constitution. To me though, it's not so much my view as what I've witnessed. I've never seen the Constitution strictly followed, and thus understand it as an open ended document, at least it is at this point in our nation's history. Additionally, one doesn't require a stricter interpretation of the Constitution to practice limited government, just a different judgement of what government should be able to do. I don't believe that the government should fix all of society's problem and that it currently is not limited enough, however, I don't think a strict view of the Constitution is entirely necessary. Overall though, your analysis was spot on. Now I'll let everyone get back to their discussion of the actual post.
NPR using taxpayer funds to pay for a poll? Since they are not advocating for either side, it is legal, but I's agree they should use their resources for other journalistic efforts.
ReplyDeleteNPR journalistic efforts is as riotous an oxymoron as "jumbo shrimp," "government help," and "rap artist."
Callahan will lose and run for County Exec in 2013.
ReplyDeleteWe are not the only ones. In Luzerne County the following exchange was reported:
ReplyDelete"Urban has said the county should eliminate full-time tipstaff jobs. He said judicial tipstaff employees should work part-time and only on days with jury trials.
The annual salary for a tipstaff employee is $39,000 or more. They also are eligible for health benefits.
Each judge usually has a dedicated tipstaff employee. A tipstaff assists a judge, announces court is in session, swears in witnesses and escorts jurors.
"What do they really do, stand in the back and whisper in the judge's ear?" Urban asked Deputy Court Administrator Jack Mulroy back in 2007.
Mulroy responded, "Well, I don't think I would present it in that manner, commissioner. But I do think they have a function in the court system to keep the court system moving properly.""
What is with this wiseass Shawn Millan character? I wouldn't vote for Dent just because of that asshat.
ReplyDeleteDouble digits.
ReplyDeleteAsk Arlen Specter about "double digits."
Anon 8:31, I'd be willing to bet you've never voted for Dent your whole life.
ReplyDelete"Ask Arlen Specter about "double digits."'
ReplyDeleteArlen lost in a primary after switching parties. Nice try Callahan camp. I'd say the situation is SLIGHTLY different.
Unless Dent murders someone or molests a child, Callahan is toast.
ReplyDeleteAnon 10:00
ReplyDeleteAnd he led by double digits and had the overwhelming support of the machine. Then people realized there was an alternative and it was all over. Dent=Incumbent=Back to selling TVs.