So in a recent Morning Call / Muhlenberg College poll, LV Congressman Charlie Dent beats challenger John Callahan by somewhere around 12 points. With the election still six months away, that poll is about as exciting as a kiss from Queen Elizabeth. Anything could happen, but 12 points are still 12 points.If this were a Little League game, it would be time for the mercy rule, but we're not in the fourth inning.
One of Callahan's shills, who is apparently an expert at polling as well as everything else, insists this is proof that Dent is vulnerable. Callahan's spin machine calls these poll results “some exciting news”, and is begging everyone to send him $100 by midnight so he "can send Charlie packing." Hey John, do the math. 12 points are still 12 points.
Tory Mazzola, NRCC firebrand, fired off this volley.
"Huh? He’s talking about a poll that shows him trailing by double-digits and garnering less than a third of support (27 percent). We already know that John Callahan is Rahm Emanuel’s hand-picked candidate, but now we also know that they’re drinking the same Kool-Aid."
The Morning Call's Scott Kraus has picked up on Callahan's faux optimism as well as the Republican reaction, and makes the perfectly reasonable point that it's a tad early to be calling this one. Of course, it is his newspaper that decided to conduct this poll in the first place.
What this poll means is exactly what it says. 12 points are 12 points.
How is 43% not vulnerablevulnerable? The incumbent's top line is much more important than the spread, because it means 57% of the electorate is could be persuaded to vote for his opponent.
ReplyDeleteMr. Geeting, Like I said, you are an expert on polling, too. 12 points are 12 points.
ReplyDeleteAny incumbent below 50% should be worried. That plus a large number of undecided between a well known incumbent and a little known challenger with money.
ReplyDeleteThis will be the toughest race yet for Dent. He better have a great slogan or some dirt on team Callahan, cause this is gonna be a close one by November.
Yeah, a 12-point lead is real cause for concern.
ReplyDeleteBernie,
ReplyDeleteAfter your past performance in calling elections, I think the opposite of your pics are reality!
Let's see, in the last race, I picked Cunningham, Stoffa, Eckhart, Creighton, Dougherty, Jones, McCarthy, Cusick, Ferraro, Dally. I missed on 3 NC Rs. 10 out of 13 is not all that bad. But what the hell do election picks have to do with poll analysis?
ReplyDeleteMy simple observation is this - 12 points are 12 points.
bernie - your butt kissing for dent is shameful almost as bad as it is for angle. BUT in the end dent beats the boy mayor who then becomes county exec and bans you from all county buildings
ReplyDeletebernie - your butt kissing for dent is shameful almost as bad as it is for angle. BUT in the end dent beats the boy mayor who then becomes county exec and bans you from all county buildings
ReplyDeleteBernie,
ReplyDeleteThere is a larger dynamic to the political process; the public mood has changed dramatically. Names on the ballot will matter less than party affiliation this November. The public mood has changed dramatically and it will be a Republican year.
Scott Armstrong
What the poll shows is there are alot of votes out there to be decided yet.
ReplyDeleteDent got over 50 percent of the votes in all his elections, but can crack 50 in this poll. He is vulnerable, if Callahan can get the undecideds.
12 points is 12 points but it would embolden me if I were Callahan only because if the spread is that close with Callahan practically doing nothing and not getting aggressive...how easy is it for him to close that gap if he actually takes some stands on something?
ReplyDeletedent's campaign saw those numbers, crapped their pants and realized they were in trouble. Against bennett, the spread was like 24 points at one time and I wonder what the numbers were against Dertinger.
ReplyDeleteYou don't need to be a polling expert to do the math. Dent has a problem on his hand and he knows it. It's a bad year to be an incumbent in Washington.
" your butt kissing for dent is shameful"
ReplyDeleteActually, I waited until Kraus posted about this before doing so myself. In the meantime, there were several other blogs claiming how rosy things look for callahan. Funny how those pro-Callahan posts are not shameful, but this is. Funny that Scott Kraus makes pretty much the same observation as me.
12 points are 12 points.
"Names on the ballot will matter less than party affiliation this Novembe"
ReplyDeleteAlways a mistake. Lever pullers.
Bernie are you just trying to be snarky with your 12 = 12 drumbeat.
ReplyDeleteThis is not really good news for Dent - but then again the poll has a margin of error of 6 points which is way to high to really trust the numbers.
This poll will help Callahan raise money with dems who know how to read polls and may hurt Dent with GOP who do not know how to read polls because they think it is the bag.
Callahan is a douche.
ReplyDeleteRealClear Politics: 5 GOP House Seats Dems Could Win
ReplyDelete"The public mood has changed dramatically and it will be a Republican year."
ReplyDeleteScott Armstrong
Bitterweet, though. Because if we take the house with a mod squad of R's, we'll give it right back, just like the last time. They were all conservative going in, governed like D's and got sent packing. Though I will have to vote for Dent, the benefit of returning him may really come from
keeping Callahan or anyone to the left of Dent out.
12 points is 12 points but it is waaayyyyy early to take any meaning from it. And as for Mr. Armstrong @ 6:05am, even if the R's do win back the House and/or Senate, they have no clue how to govern. Very good at slogans and saying no, but terrible at governing (remember 2001-2006). You unadbashed partasins are truely sad.
ReplyDeletePublius
This is a 12 point lead, prior to a contested Republican primary, and immediately following a Biden visit on behalf of Callahan. I'd be willing to bet that the actual number is at least 5 points higher. In any case, the bulk of the undecided will break toward the Republican party this year.
ReplyDeleteAlso, 8 days for a 300 person poll seems like an incredibly long time. Most polls I see are 3 days or less.
"unabashed"
ReplyDelete"truly"
ReplyDeleteWhat is so sad, again?
ReplyDeleteFrom PoliticsPA.com:
ReplyDelete"7. Charlie Dent, (R-15). Previous ranking: 6. Dent, who represents the Lehigh Valley, remains the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the delegation, though the past month has brought him both good and bad news. On the upside, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll put Dent up by 12 points. On the downside, Dent, with 43 percent, failed to crack the 50 percent barrier considered crucial to incumbents seeking reelection. In addition, Bethlehem mayor John Callahan, Dent’s Democratic challenger, has matched the incumbent in cash on hand down to the dollar, with $825,000 for each candidate. And unlike many battleground districts for this fall, the playing field is actually somewhat favorable to the Democrat, with the Morning Call poll finding a 55 percent job approval rating for Obama, slightly higher than the approval rate for Dent himself. Continued support for Obama in the district could pose problems for Dent if voters express frustration with his support for the GOP agenda, including his “no” vote on health care. Still, Dent can take some comfort in the historical pattern that wave elections tend to hit only one party and leave the other party unscathed."
...with 43 percent, failed to crack the 50 percent barrier considered crucial to incumbents seeking reelection.
ReplyDeleteA salient point and an obvious one to anyone interested in politics. (Obviously, Mr. O'Hare and Mr. Armstrong have their heads firmly planted in the sand.)
12 points are 12 points.
ReplyDeleteAnon 3:22
ReplyDeleteSo they were so concerned about his chances that after the poll he went from 6 to 7?
12 points are 12 points. But the 43% is light for an incumbent and indicates potential vulnerability in a three-way contest.
ReplyDeleteHe likely wins, but he's not a shoo-in. If Democrats would stop running stiffs they'd have a shot. In reality, Dent's positions are not far from those of moderate Dems. This is the real reason he wins in this blue district. And it makes the far left cRaZy.
And Specter seems to be smoking Sestak. PA Ds love Rs.
ReplyDeleteIs Dent worried? Take a look at a recent photo instead of his official portrait.If you think he hasnt done much under Bush what can you expect under Obama.Lets face it moderate reps are out of style.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteAnd Specter seems to be smoking Sestak. PA Ds love Rs.
Really? The daily tracking poll had it at 4 points today! Within the margin of error. That is a dead heat! Go Sestak!
Dent was up by 26 in a poll he released in January. Looks like Callhan cut that in half, not bad for a candiadte spending little money and having little name recognition.
ReplyDelete"The poll, conducted by the Alexandria-based Tarrance Group, found Dent garnering 53 percent of the vote, compared to 27 percent for Callahan, according to a poll memo released by the National Republican Congressional Committee"-pa2010.com January 26, 2010
Now we know that when you run for Congress, it's really exciting to be down by 12 points.
ReplyDeleteLatest poll shows Specter by 7 and making more distance.
ReplyDeleteO'Hare, explain why Dent can't crack 43%? Explain how that is good for him. He is the incumbent, he is suppose to be over 50%.
ReplyDeleteCallahan has not campaigned yet. All he has done is raise funds.
Look at the Sestak-Spector race...the last 30 days is all that matters.
Bernie, I no you supported Dent in 2008, you still supporting him this time around?!? I hope so!
ReplyDeleteYes, I support him. I think John Callahan is a good man but Charlie Dent is simply the best the LV has to offer. In my opinion, he belongs in th Senate. So yes, I will support him.
ReplyDeleteCharlie surely does envision himself in the Senate but He is going to have to wait 6 more years because Casey will never be defeated.
ReplyDeleteThis has been a pretty civil commenting effort - What's wrong Bernie?
Donald, I don't know. They must have me mistaken with somebody nice.
ReplyDelete