January 19: LVDem reports the rumor that Sam Bennett, who has never made it out of an Allentown city primary, is considering a run for Congress. The blogosphere explodes in laughter.February 8: LVDem's famous "odd email" post, telling us that Northampton County Dem boss Joe Long is already "clearing the field" for Allentonian Sam Bennett. Bernie Kieklak, Lisa Boscola's chief of staff, calls Long's venture into political agriculture "so far beyond stupid that it wouldn't surprise me if he wants to be an astronaut some day."
February 22: Bernie Kieklak tips the blogosphere about Bennett's plan to preannounce her stab at congress. "[T]he ONLY reason I think she'd hold it at her house instead of at a better backdrop is that she can't convince 4 people to stand behind her and pretend to be a crowd!" Bennett's barrage draws this response from a commenter. "Bottom Line ... if Sam Bennett was somehow the Dem candidate in the 15th district, I would vote for Dent. And I have NEVER, EVER, voted for an Republican. And I think there are a lot of people just like me."
February 26: Local blogger Richard Wilkins reports "bullying and intimidation" after he dares suggest that the people should select their nominee, not some party boss in a back room. They don't want to see that garbage in print. I immediately ask what garbage is making party bosses so upset. That way, I can write even more.
March 21: Blogger Rising Sun reports, at LV Poliblog, that Bennett will kick off her campaign at an April 2 fundraiser in which you can be her "friend" for $100.
April 3: Green Dog complains Bennett is using Lehigh County Dem committee email to spread the word about her fundraiser, even though she is neither the party's nominee nor its endorsed candidate. Tom Foolery claims she will be the "Democratic candidate for congress. So stop the whining about the little crap." But PO'd Blogger asks, "[S]he's having her breakout fundraiser in Bethlehem? You would think the Lehigh County gang would be whooping up for her. Guess not."
April 6: Joe Long hosts a talk radio show with congressional candidate Sam Bennett, but refuses to accept calls from the public. RadRalph, who listened that day, said this. "If you have a good candidate, they should answer questions from the general public."
May 18: Bennett tells CQPolitics and Bill Cahir she's running against incumbent Charlie Dent. CQ calls Bennett a "consensus candidate." High Priest Long incredibly claims no other Dem plans to compete for the Dem nod. Bennett tells Cahir she's also locked up the support of Rick Daugherty, chairman of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, and T.J. Rooney, former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
Bottom line. Party bosses have done all in their power to discourage anyone who might actually be able to beat Charlie Dent. Bennett, who has yet to win a local race, is at best a second tier Dem. Dertinger v. Dent makes clear that it takes a first tier Dem to beat a first tier R. But if a first tier Dem like Lisa Boscola or Jenn Mann decides to enter the fray, party bosses have virtually guaranteed a nasty primary. Once again, local Dems have maneuvered themselves into oblivion.
The ultimate beneficiary and victor? Charlie Dent, of course.
What happened at Bennet's fund raiser? How much did she raise? How many people actually attended and gave her money? Anybody know? It wasn't in the news as far as I could tell. Bet you it was a bust.
ReplyDeleteShawn Millan and the gang at Precision hate mailings are laughing with glee. Charlie Dent is smiling. Cakewalk to re-election. You would think that the national party would do a better job of vetting a candidate. I guess they haven't seen the tape of Sam's drunken concession speech to "Roy Boy". We will
ReplyDeleteBernie, check with Rick about the locked up support that sam claims to have. Knowing that Rick has refused to do endorsements for local candidates makes me leary of that claim.
ReplyDeletesorry that anon at 8:19 was me... and I should say that that support is different than endorsement. Rick, as every chair should, would likely support any Democrat that seeks office (don't have official word from him on that, but based on conversations with him, that's my impression). Should also note that Rooney is still the chair of the PA Dem party, not the former chair as the article mentions.
ReplyDeleteIt is not a matter of manuevering. Mann is not going to give up her seat in the house to run for Congress. Boscola will never run because she knows that the R's will revisit her past and smear the hell out of her. Who's left??Callahan would be a possibility but can run once more for Mayor and probably will. I've heard Schweder might consider. He could raise funds easily and his buddy rooney would help but i'm not sure if he is ready to retire from his day job to do this. Morganelli is probably still thinking State and so is Cunningham...Therefore there are no more so called first tier candidates. Was Ritter a first tier candidate when he first ran??
ReplyDeleteNo.. So a secong tier candidtae can run and win if Bush continues to do everything wrong and if Dent continues to follow him as he has been..
Tom!
ReplyDeleteYou, my friend, have not learned the lesson of 2006. But if you're going to run a second tier candidate, you don't do it with someone who has lost every time she ran for city office in Allentown, and who is unknown west of that city. You don't do it by shoving her down our throats, which has happened in this instance. You don't try to scare off potential first tier candidates, which was done locally. You don't do it w/ a candidate who was visibly intoxicated on local TV. It's insanity to think anything else.
And the bottom line is that most local Dems aren't terribly bothered by Dent. They don't identify him w/ Bush or Cheney. You claim Dent follows Bush by the nose, but when he forms a group for some frank discussion with W, others call that politically motivated.
Dent's record is actually fairly moderate. He's slightly right of center. He might actually be more liberal than Boscola. There's lttle difference between his views and those of most Pa. Dems. I'll have more about Dent's record later.
Bennett's run is ok by me. The more the merrier. But partry osses have done their best to discourage others. Dent will kill her, and I'll vote for him over her in a heartbeat.
Bernie,
ReplyDeleteLove your blog buddy, but what have you been smoking? ..The era of the party boss died long ago. You really think that any party chair can stop someone, especially a first tier candidate, from running these days. They'd laugh at him. That is just crazy.
Never said Sam doesn't have negatives. She does indeed and they will be exploited. All I'm saying is a second tier candidtae can win.
Charlie Dent, who is a super guy personally, has moved light years from moderation. Ask any Union head. They have his record. He might have been somewhat moderate at the State House but that has long passed. I've voted for him myself the first time around. Can't see it happening again..I'd be willing to bet that he's voted with the White House over 80% of the time. Certainly on major issues..If anyone has data to support anything otherwise, i'd love to see it. Anyway, even voting with this crazy administation over 50% of the time is nuts..
So I guess we were right in that little observation that Lamont McClueless was doing the bidding of a higher authority in that mudswipe with Lisa Boscola's dead brother.
ReplyDeleteSo here's the issue, in 2006, we couldn't get a candidate, so we had to write one in.
In 2007, we already have one for 2008, unfortunately, many, myself included, think we could do better.
I'm willing to listen as to why Sam is better than Lisa, and mind you, I have a copy of Sam's concession speech. I like Sam, but if I have a tape, anon 7:59 is right, you know damn well the other side does. WFMZ will sell anybody a copy for $30.
The game for 2008 is starting early, and the full contact crackback blocks are already taking place. This is going to be horribly bloody
Above average Jane has some financials, says Charlie raised $220,000, while sam has raised $184,000.
ReplyDeletesam can and will raise money. that will make her formidable for any other second tier candidate that might pop up in the primary.. i'll stick to my original prediction that she'll be the democratic candidate.
ReplyDeleteSo she was drunk when she made her concession to Roy. I'd get drunk too if I lost to Afflerbach. Most of the Allentonians who voted for him must have been drunk also.
Maybe if Dent wouild start drinking he would stop voting with Bush!
TomFoolery,
ReplyDeleteI'm glad you like my blog. But it is not me who makes it good. It is people like you, who'll give me an honest opinion even when it's different from mine. I have no lock on the truth.
I wish I could agree with you about the power of party bosses, but I do think they are actively trying to discourage other candidates. That was part of the reason for McClure's vicious smears on Power, at least in my opinion.
The era of the party boss is alive and well in NC. They predecide candidates. Dems from Beth actually selected Maher as the poster boy for county council in the slate belt. Bill Hall was left by the wayside. That seems like machine politics to me.
AAJ is simply quoting the same article I link on my blog. Dent has raised $184k. Bennett claims to have pledges. Let's see what the FEC report tells us.
"And the bottom line is that most local Dems aren't terribly bothered by Dent. They don't identify him w/ Bush or Cheney. You claim Dent follows Bush by the nose, but when he forms a group for some frank discussion with W, others call that politically motivated."
ReplyDeleteBernie, where the hell do you get that notion? He pulled in 53% of the vote in 2006? Most democrats don't a problem with him? Sounds like most Dems do have a problem with him based on that number. In fact the more he holds his seat, the more we regret shrugging at him in 2004.
Every passing day has placed Dent closer and closer to Bush. Tom is right: the further Charlie has gotten from his roots in Allentown (he no longer lives in his original house district btw), the more he has retreated from moderation in his politics.
Charlie Dent is the master of moderate rhetoric, but look at his entire voting record in Congress. Not his rhetoric, but how he actually casts his votes. I don't have the numbers, but I can guarentee that he'll be closer to Rick Santorum than to a candidate Democrats can deal with.
Sorry Bernie, but you are too kind to this guy.
LVDEm,
ReplyDeleteThose election results actually prove my point. In November, at a time when most Rs running for federal office were falling by the wayside, Dent did remarkably well. In LC, Santorum pulled down 42%. That copmpares with Dent's 56%. In his freshman term in Congress, Dent did side with Bush on a number of key issues, and is only now beginning to return to his traditionally moderate nature. The arguments against Dent in '06 will lose a lot of their steam in '08.
I agree we should be looking at his entire voting record instead of cherry-picking individual issues to make partisan points. That's exactly what I intend to do in a post this week. Guess what? He's not a bogeyman. He'd be very tough to beat with a first tier candidate. But with a Bennett, he's unstoppable.
He's also simply the better candidate. Let's not forget that. But voters, who aren't rabidly partisan one way or the other, will see that.
I think Mayer would have won with or without an endorsement. Did dollars or mailers come with the endorsement? If not it was essentially useless. However, the danger of endorsements are that the one not endorsed can join with the opposition in the fall. This makes the original endorsement( if it came without perks) not only useless but harmful.
ReplyDeleteIn Power's race, the endorsement was a waste of time. With McClure's resources he didn't need the endorsement or the nastiness. Still haven't figured out what that was all about..Either way, I think endorsements in the primary, unless
backed by money or paid mail, are a waste.
To get back to Dent, you are right
to say that he will be formidible for even a first tier candidate. That is because his ability to market himself as a moderate is enhanced by all the money he'll have to spend. If people were able to get through the smoke that will be thrown up and see how he actually has been voting , he'll be in trouble. However, to get through that smoke while also responding to the negatives thrown out also, will be very tough thing to do. You cannot afford to have a candidate with many negatives..
Actually, your point about Dent returning to his moderate roots is exactly supportive of my overall point: Dent is all about political opportunity, never about principle. He should never have to return to any kind of roots if he was about principle. He'd already be there.
ReplyDeleteBut I will return to the conversation about numbers. Dent is from Lehigh County, was a state rep and state senator for several years and he did out-perform santorum (who got squished). But for Dent, a brand-name product, to finish with the numbers that he had, tells me that Democrats are getting tired of him. If he was a brand-name moderate that D's could tolerate, as you suggest, then we would have seen much better numbers... say something like the 2004 number (well, maybe in between 04 and 06). Yeah it was a bad year for R's in general, but saying he did better than Santorum is like saying the he also did better than Bush while completely ignoring that over time, Dent's numbers are seeing a decline in his home base of Allentown. And I'll also point out he ran against a low-tier candidate with no money and did what he did. Imagine if he would have faced a top tier candidate in 06. If he was that close against a poor opponent, against a strong opponent he'll really start having to answer questions about his record.
Hey, I voted for Dent when he ran for state senate in 2002 and when he first ran in 2004. I'm one of those D's that can vote for an R when I feel comfortable. That comfort is long gone.
Excellent points, LV Dem. I too have strayed in the past. Not again..However, I would not underestimate Charlie..He'll be tough to beat. I have a hard time understanding all the hits on Sam already. At least she is willing to put herself out there. It takes alot of time effort and money for a race like that. The worst of it is the knowledge that
ReplyDeleteyour opponent will be spending millions of dollars to attack you.
That is why many so called first tier candidtaes won't take him on. They like their reputations to stay intact. It's not fun.. I applaud anyone courageous enough to try.
BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
ReplyDeleteSam, "Lamb Chop" Bennett
I do believe that Charlie Dent will be feating on a meal with fava beans and a fine Chianti!
I like the idea of women Congress people. I hope Sam wins.
The problem you folks have is: whaddaya got on Charlie two step?
LVDem,
ReplyDeleteI know you view Dent as a political opportunist, as do most of us in the blogosphere. He's been called flip-flopper, spineless, etc. Nothing he does is satisfactory. Sometimes, this vicious criticism comes from state employees like BTNP, and he must have to work w/ Dent's office. That blows my mind.
It's a bit unfair when you come down to it. For example, when Dent goes along with Bush on something, he's spineless, an empty suit, wishy washy, etc. Then, when he differs w/ Bush, he morphs into some evil, calculating Machiavelli. You can't have it both ways.
And there's another possibility - he might just be someone who sincerely calls things as he sees them. I, for one, don't like some of his votes. I'd support a real Democrat if the Lehigh Valley produces one that will run. But all these snide conclusions about Dent motives are a real stretch. They just alienate the voters Dems should be trying to attract.
I like the idea of looking at Dent's record to find out whether he really is a brown shirt. I'll do that this week.
Dent has traditionally voted as a moderate. There's little difference between him and most Dems in the LV, who are not really very liberal. That's really why Dent wins. That, and he seems to remember everyone's name.
Most congressman, in their first term, will follow the advice of house leaders. Dent did set out his own course on some issues. Now that he has a little more seniority, he has more of an opportunity to be himself. That's all I meant by what I said about him being able to return to his moderate positions.
What kills me is how this First Tuesday group has been trashed. If Dent were the opportunist he's been made out to be, I would imagine he'd have a number of press releases associated with the event, photos of him wagging his finger at Bush, etc. The truth is something different. Dent never even went to the press. Russert found out about it and started making inquiries. Dent kept it very low key. That's not the sign of an opportunist, no matter how hard Bennett tries to make it so.
I don't vote the party. I vote the person. It doesn't matter whether it's local, state or federal office. Don't kid yourselves, guys and gals. Republicans have no lock on evil. There are some very bad Dems out there. I understand the disenchantment about the direction in which this nation is headed, but both parties are to blame for that. Scapegoating Dent is a just simplistic solution to complicated problems. Voters will see through it, just like they did last time.
Instead of learning a lesson, you're repeating a mistake.
I don't deny Bennett has every right to run. But what I don't like about her campaign is that it is orchestrated in a way to deter other candidates who might be better than Charlie. She's not.
Party bosses and Bennett have combined to make Congressman Charlie Dent our future Congressman.
Once again, my opinion is just that. I appreciate and respect all of your views. I know what I think, and I like hearing from other people with different views.
Congressman Dent won't lose, especially if Sam Bennett is his opponent, is my opinion. Whoever thinks Boss Long is a "leader" doesn't know him very well! A "real" political Party leader would pull Party faithful together
ReplyDeleteand not officially takes sides in Primary elections. The Boss wants recognition for "himself" and could care less about any candidate. All must kiss his ring or what? Problem is: he keeps it in his back pocket and even if you kiss it, he can do nothing but harm any campaign. Sheep biggest problem is association with Boss Long. Get out the shears! www.kisslinger.com
Larry K. right on as usual. What is it about Sam how does she get the $$$ and support. She has never won a thing,talking to her makes Billy Givens sound like Steven Hawkins. There are numerous former and current officeholders who could do better. It's a mystery. Joe Long like Ron A. are legends in their own minds. Tom and LVDem. stop arguing with Bernie on Dent. Bernie has put Dent into his Stoffa catagory, that means he's been sainted and above criticism. Stoffa for congress in 08. Yea!
ReplyDeleteYou guys are all off the mark. The only canddiate who can beat Dent in 2008 is Tom Wallitsch.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2:45!
ReplyDeleteI've got to admit I laughed my ass off when I read your post. Dent has not been sainted: he's just at the beatification stage. But the pope himself tells he's sainted Stoffa. Who am I to argue?
Anon 2:57!
Wallitch is a big step towards that first tier. But thanks to Joe Long, Dems will be spending money against each other to get him nominated. There will be division and animosity.
Anon 2:57,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that Wallitsch would have a chance. He was courted to run in 2002. He has a strong background. He would be able use Afghanistan trip as being patriotic and supporting the war against terrorism.
He would also come across as a candidate who won an election in his life.
Wallitsch would be a great candidate. My concern is that candisates like him are being warned off as Joe Long "clears the field."
ReplyDeletebernie...again...you seem to have developed this myth that a first tier candidate is being scared off by a county chair "clearing the field." No one really takes Joe Long seriously and if Wallitsch or Boscola want in the race they will get in the race and stomp all over Joe Long. Whoever said Long and Angle are legends in their own mind...dead on. And that is the ONLY palce they are legends.
ReplyDeleteIf Wallitsch were to get in Bennett should get out, if she has any brains at all. If she doesn't get out then Wallitsch can use her as a practice dummy (pun intended) and get his campaign tuned up for the big show against Dent in the fall. Either way, she will not be a serious problem for him and Joe Long will be as he is right now -- totally irrelevant to the process.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry i can't see any way that Bennett beats Dent. Unless Dent Beats himself. In which case Rick orloski could be the next congressmen from the 15th district
ReplyDeleteactually I think Rick Orolski has a better chance of winning than Sam Bennett he'd be a better candidate
ReplyDelete"If Wallitsch were to get in Bennett should get out, if she has any brains at all."
ReplyDeletePersonally, I hope Tom, Sam, Bernie and Rick all run! Why shouldn't voters get the chance to listen to all of them and make the determination. They all bring something to the table (except Bernie... he comes seeking pity). Rick is the constant candidate that knows how to campaign (and is really sincere), Sam has an energy that would scare a college student who just had a double latte and three energy drinks and Tom brings an interesting resume and story.
And I hope the GOP grows some marbles and runs somebody against Charlie Dent. We should be looking for more options in elections, not less.
First teir, second teir. I wonder what accidents like Truman or unknowns loke Clinton would think of that. I'm a Dem. and one reason is I don't believe in the aristocracy way of the Republicans. You would think if Lisa or Wallitsch don't run we are all doomed. I would love to see 30 Dems in a primary. If you want this congressional seat get an Irishman or a Dutchman. Just kidding, but enough with the royalty. We all know Bernie is the only annointed King around here.
ReplyDelete30, 40, or 50 candidates in Primary
ReplyDeleteseeking nomination to run against Congressman Dent in General election is fine with me! However, anybody supported by Boss Long or Precision Mudsling would be a big loser, is my opinion. www.kisslinger.com
Anon 4:51,
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry. From what I've seen, Boss Long wields a lot of power among NC Dems. But you may be right. In fact, I hope you're right.
Based on our recruiting success in the past couple years, I'd say Bennett passes for a "consensus" candidate. At least until someone with a good chance jumps in. What's the latest news on the other people who are considering the race?
ReplyDeleteOn Dent's moderation, one of my friends argues that moderate for a Dem and for a Rep means two different things (socially conservative/economically liberal for the former and socially liberal/economically conservative for the latter- i.e. Casey and Specter). Thoughts on this?
Bernie!
ReplyDeleteI notice that the # of posts on your blog goes up considerably when the topic is CD 15. That's a very healthy and positive sign for change.
1) Candidates have been threatening to "smear" Lisa for years. Cycle after cycle, their polling shows that it's impossible to smear someone with a 75% positive name ID. Not only doesn't it matter to voters or move them out of her column, it's tantamount to someone being so stupid that they would pull the pins from 5 grenades and stick them all down the front of their pants. If it was THAT easy to beat her, jerkweed, any jackass could've done it by now.
2) The more exposure Sammy Bennett gets, the lower her support goes. Like most political opportunists, people can see right through the phony, plastic facade.
3) Lisa spoke with Tom Wallitsch months ago at the request of Jenn Mann. He's not running, trust me.
4) Shawn Millan is the best at what he does, is a personal friend of mine, and is someone I admire and respect. When you must live by the laws of nature ("survival of the fittest" & "kill or be killed") in a nasty, brutal political environment, you can't cheat or lie your way to power. In the animal world, the weak get weeded out quickly. You might shudder at the thought, but it's been that way for millions of years because it's proved to be an efficient way for society to survive and advance.
5) Lisa is more conservative than Dent could ever pretend to be. That's why Pat Toomey and his Brown Shirts will probably take Charlie out in the Primary next year. (THIS will prove to be Shawn Millan's greatest challenge. And he knows it.)
6) Dent has a MAJOR problem with Democrats (hence his 30% negative name ID). They are pissed at him for continuing to support Bush's blunder in Iraq. How the hell do you think an underfunded, DCCC-ignored, write-in candidate like Dertinger got so close last year? By attracting Republican votes? Duh!! Do the math, sparky!
Trample the wounded, hurdle the dead,
Bernie Takes NO Prisoners
Anon 10:12, Your questions are answered on Tuesday's post!
ReplyDeleteBTNP,
ReplyDeleteI knew it! Lisa is probably a bit more conservative than Charlie. Bennett's whatever she has to be to get elected. But she won't.
Bernie. I have a proposition that will never happen. I bet If 'Boss Long' put Sam on the ballot and did everything he could for her and Glenn Reibman was on the ballot and did nothing he would get more votes. That would mean you and the Emporer would have to declare a cease-fire on Reib. for the primary. If that were to occur and Sam won I would buy you both the dinner of yopur choice as long as I didnot have to eat with you. Please don't go nuts, take a pill, this is not an endorsement of Reib it is just a straight assessment of the power of Sam-Long. You know that sounds so cool I might just start circulating petitions.
ReplyDeleteAnon 12:36,
ReplyDeleteI actually agree w/ you, but I'll take a pill anyway. In fact, I'll take a few.
But if you lose the bet, you're eating w/ us. I'm tired of being Angle's official food-taster. I was really sick Thursday night, and could swear I saw Grube run out of Tic Toc, laughing his ass off.
Bennet is a self centered opportunist of the first class. She will use anybody and everybody just to keep the attention on herself. The problem is that she talks a good line and impresses people at first blush but when you see her act more than two or three times you realize that she is just a con artist starving for attention and brings nothing of real substance to the table. That's why she was never able to win a Democratic primary election even against candidates like Afflerback and Pawlosey. Anybody who takes her seriously as a Congressional candidate needs to have their head examined -- same with anybody who gives her money. If she runs Dent wins, no doubt about it.
ReplyDelete"At the request of Jennifer Mann?"
ReplyDeleteHmm... Is Rep. Mann showing any interest in the Dem. nomination for PA-15?
Ding Ding Ding....Let the Smearing Begin. This is why opinion based rant has tainted and slandered honest people. Great, politics at its best. I'm sure all the undercover republicans who are blogging (as supposed Dems) in here are roling there eyes with a "whatever". Come on guys. Who are you fooling! Since its inception, instant messaging and blogging have always been about illusion, deception and whos who who said what where and when, no bother..today i am andrew, tommorrow i will blog as tina. Most of these fictional opininated comments should be thrown into the blog SPAM bin! Most opinions are High in Saturated BS and self-righteous ego
ReplyDeleteLike yours? Afraid of a few opinions? Words never hurt anybody. But pols who make decision behind closed doors do.
ReplyDelete