Northampton County's unofficial results show Charles Dertinger as a 127 vote winner in his congressional race against incumbent Charlie Dent.
Northampton County released their final results on Friday. Contrary to popular opinion, Dent actually won Northampton County by over 3,000 votes. And although Democrats have seized control of congress with a net gain of at least twenty-nine seats, Dertinger lost his home township and even his own precinct.
Last time the House changed control was in 1994, when Newt Gingrich and his Contract with America promised all sorts of reform. In that election, Democrat Paul McHale escaped with a 471 vote margin of victory. Now the tide has turned and Democrats are screaming for reform. Dent is swimming upstream. Yet, unlike Paul McHale, he still achieved a near 20,000 vote margin of victory. This is certainly no landslide, but the race was never so close as originally believed.
Anyone who minimizes Dent's ability to draw votes is making a mistake. To beat him, Democrats are going to have to produce a serious candidate, like someone who just drew 72% of the votes in her race for state senate.
yep it was an all out slaughter of anyone other than incs,dems and Casey
ReplyDeleteGreendog, I wouldn't call it an "all out slaughter." But when the dust had settled, Dertinger lost Northampton County. This is contrary to the unofficial results still posted on the county web site.
ReplyDeleteso is the close to 600 vote victory by Orloski in accurate as well in Northampton county and how in the world did they screw this up?
ReplyDeleteWell it also didn't help that dent had close to 1 million dollars and Dertinger had the funding of a well funded state rep campaign
ReplyDeleteGreen Dog,
ReplyDelete1) I'll check out Orloski as soon as I can get my excel program to work again.
2) Gee, now let me think. We have vote tallies not done until 4:30 AM, unanswered phone calls in the register's office, machines freezing up, elections worker who don't seem to know they are required to offer provisional ballots to voters who do not appear on the poll books, etc., etc. Shall I go on? If any office needs scrutiny, it is that office.
Votes are a little more important than money.
3) Dent had well over $1MM. More money would have helped, but I don't buy the argument that more $ means victory. Dent beat a candidate (Driscoll) last time who was better funded.
Driscoll also was an outsider who only moved into the district so he could run for office, something he had no business doing and if he had asked anyone before he did it he would have known better.
ReplyDeleteFed up with Republicans in Congress and the White House, he decided his first run for elected office would be for the U.S. House _ and initially looked into a run from the 6th District, where he lives.
ReplyDeleteBut state Democratic party leaders, who already had a preferred candidate in the 6th District, had other plans. They pointed the wealthy and telegenic Driscoll to the 15th District in Lehigh Valley, where Democrats hold a slight voter enrollment edge over Republicans _ and where party leaders had repeatedly failed to field a candidate.
Driscoll quickly rented a townhouse in Upper Macungie and commutes to the Lehigh Valley from his home in Haverford, Montgomery County, where he lives with his wife and two children. He has said he does not believe his residency will be a major factor in the race.
well it did matter
ReplyDeleteyou have to have money and be a local one without the other won't beat dent
ReplyDeleteThere were state house races better funded. This wouldn't even be considered well-funded by their standards. If Bernie's numbers are correct and Dent won Northampton County, that is a failure by the party. To win the 15th over Dent, any Democrat must win Northampton County, and by thousands, not hundreds, of votes.
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree with Bernie that this race wasn't necessarily "close" (it wasn't like we didn't know who won until morning), I think your overlooking something about the results. Dent scored 59% in a Presidential year in 2004, a year in which many of the voters are considered "super-partisan" and only show up to vote for their party's presidential nominee. Considering his 20 point win in that environment, Kerry carried the 15th District at the same time, Dent's win was considered historically strong. On this election night, he still only achieved 53%, in a mid-term election, a much different environment than 2004. It was still a pretty decent win, but one must assume that with a "tier one" candidate, this would have been a nail biter, or a Democratic pick-up. He did not overachieve this time. While he did win Dertinger's home municipality, that is in the Slate Belt, fertile grounds for the GOP. Dertinger still, overachieved, and Charlie underachieved, at least according to most expectations going in.
As for your assertion that we will need a very strong candidate to beat Charlie, I agree. If the candidate you mentioned is going to run, she certainly qualifies as the kind of "tier one" candidate we're talking about. I just hope that the decision is made soon by at least one of the tier one's to hop in, in fact, if their going to, then they should by early next year so they can start raising money. The candidate who beats Charlie Dent will fundraise like Joe Driscoll did, but win Northampton County cleanly and poll much better in West Allentown than Dertinger did. If not, Charlie will be re-elected in 2008 and move towards his statewide run in 2010. Do I think Lisa is capable? Yes, I agree with you there. It just has to get done though.
I may be wrong, but I think Charlie Dent has his eye on replacing Snarlen' someday. But that's just my observation.
ReplyDeleteI count 3 fingers on that hand...
ReplyDeleteThat's why it takes us so long in this county. We're still using fingers . . . and toes.
ReplyDeleteAs I pointed out before you must be from this area to win or have live here a long time as well. Plus have the money. It's something I don't think the people at the DCCC understand. It's part of why Lois Murphy also lost. The DCCC needs to give Lisa Money then get out of the way. If they don't if they try to insert themselves into the race or try to tell her how to run it you will end up with another Lois Murphy instead of a Chirs Carney election.
ReplyDeleteSo your blaming the DCCC and not Lois Murphy and her campaign staff themselves? That's an interesting and different take than I'm getting anywhere else. I think it's worth pointing out she's a second time candidate, and usually second time candidates end up losing worse the second time around (i.e.- Ed O'Brien). She benefitted from being a target in a Dem year. I don't think she was the right kind of candidate for that district. They probably messed up by anointing her and not Driscoll in 2004 for THAT district. It would have been interesting.
ReplyDeleteI've been told my many people and many
ReplyDeleteof the candidates that had dealing with her staff they were rude condescending, They didn't know how to deal with the locals. etc etc etc etc.
She didn't show up to scheduled interviews, events that she had agreed to be at.Of course the insiders will never admit the Dccc ever does anything wrong. They are yes men and women who are trying to keep their positions.
Secondly where do you think Louis Murphy's staff came from.
ReplyDeleteI had no contact with her staff, so I don't know? the DCCC probably wouldn't consider me and insider, so I won't insult them with saying I am, but for how bad you imply they are, they did just win 30 seats plus away from the GOP, many of them in rather rabidly-red areas.
ReplyDeleteIn 2002, the O'Brien Campaign was targeted by the DCCC, as was the Driscoll 2004 race most of the way. The DCCC did not hire all of the staff, or even the bulk of it, for those races, they were mostly locals.
I'll fault the DCCC for what they did wrong (not targeting the 15th), but not for everything. Their not that bad.
I'm reposting this from pa progresive which sort of sums up everything i heard about the Murphy camapign
ReplyDeleteOne, run by the DCCC and the Washington insiders, flooded a District with staffers from outside the area. Heck, most weren't even from Pennsylvania. The other, farther off the radar and huge media markets, was staffed mostly by locals from the District. What a world of difference in the way these were run!
The first campaign, for Lois Murphy in the 6th, was a textbook case of incompetence. I love Lois and she'll make a great Congresswoman, but her campaign staff was awful. Her very average website was the extent of her internet outreach and her people, many from DC, completely out of touch. This district stretches from just outside Philadelphia, including the Main Line, to Reading and Kutztown.
I'm sorry folks but the Pennsylvania Dutch have nothing in common with Main Liners but Lois' staff were clueless to this. They didn't hire a single staff member from Berks County. Not one person who understood the Dutch. They ignored the county until August and by then had ticked off half of them. Their rudeness was legend and any attempts to provide feedback about the situation was met with more rudeness.
One Saturday I was enjoying the Pennsylvania Dutch Festival in Kutztown when I ran into Lois surrounded by about eight staffers. She had an entourage everywhere she went. I couldn't believe she was wasting a Saturday campaigning at an event that mostly had out of town people. Heck, most were from out of state! To make matters worse, with all the photo ops the festival presented, not one staffer had thought to bring a digital camera.
The Dutch are a different breed. The extremely negative campaign tactics backfired here. These people hate negative campaigns. You cannot sell them, they have to be convinced to buy. Because there was no one local no one understood this. In one week I watched the Lurphy campaign blow off every media outlet covering the area. At Saturday's rally in Norristown I watched as her staff erected their banner on the stage after the time the event was to have started. Bad advance work. Very bad.
I remember the first time I met Lois Murphy. It was January or February 2004. She was just beginning her quest for the 6th CD seat against Gerlach. I was the Democracy for America organizer in Berks County and she was addressing our group on what may have been her first public appearance in the county. I was impressed, as I always have been with Lois personally. I've seen her many, many times since then and have come to know her. Lately I wonder if she remembers who I am.
Maybe the biggest sign of the futility of their effort here this year was with her first field rep. He was trying to set up a campaign office and sent emails through one of the committee people (for some reason he was incapable of sending emails himself) announcing where the office would be. I put together a bunch of stuff to loan to them to get the office going and headed over. No office. A few days later I tried again to no avail. Meanwhile no emails or phone calls (he didn't know how to call people either) letting me in on what was happening. I gave up and the stuff has stayed unused.
Seeing him later I mentioned how dysfunctional their campaign was. His reply was that Lois spoke with Rahm every day, they were getting their advice straight from the DCCC. My reply: that was their problem. Washington D.C. and out of state staffers don't know the local ground, the local people. They only know how to run campaigns "by the book." The extreme level of negativism in the 6th District here has gotten people where they don't want to vote for either candidate.
GreenDog, Orloski still won in NC,
ReplyDeletegreat they messed up the posting too because the site now says orlaski lost
ReplyDeleteGreen Dog,
ReplyDeleteI think you have to be careful with opinions about the DCCC from 'the net.' There seems to be a very clear divide between the "Dean" and "Emannuel/Clinton/Carville" crowds. The points may be valid for that race, I didn't study it enough to know. I just know the DCCC did something right to win 30 seats. It can't all be attributed to GOP follies can it?
Rich
I'm unsure how much credit the Dccc deserves for winning the seats. A number of the wins were complete shocks to them. A number of the candidates were funded directly and almost entirely off of actblue. Quite a few of the candidates the DCCC directly interceeded to get nominated lost. I hope they learned to stay out of the primary process in the future
ReplyDeletewhat DCCC does well for candidates is fund raise. I remember the Kennedy event from O'Brien in 2000 and the other events. It was all DCCC. When DCCC is allowed to take over other operations (field, management, communications), that's when things become dicey. The candidates that use DCCC effectively keep a divide between the two.
ReplyDeleteOh, if you want an example of a second time around candidate winning a congressional seat, Joe Hoeffel did it. He actually ran in 1984 and 1986 and lost twice. He ran again in 1996 and lost. He ran again in 1998 and won.
I stand corrected. LVDem is right, Joe lost first. The rate is low though the second time around. It takes a gifted politician to pull it off.
ReplyDeleteAs for the DCCC's issues with running field operations, I'd agree with that. I think the same goes for the HDCC. I don't think you can apply a "one size fits all" to every district in the state. It doesn't work.
I think the DCCC overall did a fine job though and all the whining about Emannuel is because some of the more liberal elements of the party don't like how moderate this caucus looks.
No my "whining" is based on his overspending on races that we couldn't win or the extra spending made little or no difference in the end. Lois Murphy could have had the same results with probably a million less since she had close to a million left in the bank at the end
ReplyDelete... and if he had spent a million less on Lois, and she had the same result, many of the blogosphere critics of Rahm would have blamed him for not trying enough for her. The race was close, we lost, they may have been over involved, but I don't buy that it was stupid spending. It was a tight district and remains one.
ReplyDeleteThe money is still sitting in her bloody account not spent.
ReplyDelete1) My DOG could win Northampton County if you gave her $1.2 million and gave Dent $60,000 to spend in the course of a campaign... guaranteed, with one paw tied behind her back!;
ReplyDelete2) The DCCC = a scratched together and shifting set of well-fed, fat white guys in suits (or jeans, depending on the budget for that campaign) with uneven skills and a terminal case of timidity;
3) That's EXACTLY why the race between Gerlach/Murphy got so nasty, so fast... because negative campaigns SURPRESS the vote and gives the advantage to whoever does the best job at BASE-PUMPING and his base was bigger;
4) After 12 years of "compassionate conservative" crap, the political pendulum is finally swinging the other way... and it's not possible that public opinion is suddenly going to swing back the other way in just 2 short years;
5) All those smug and self-important GOP boys and GOP girls that are proud to be part of the Hitler Youth better hope there's room for them in the graveyards in 2008, because they are going to be toast in the machine.
And how is that Rahm's fault? No offense to your point, but he can't help that she's too stupid to run her campaign right on the ground. She lost by the tiniest of margins in 2004, I can't fault the DCCC for funding her to the best of their abilities this time. She should have spent the damn money.
ReplyDeleteMy point is that I think she was a crummy candidate to begin with. She was not in line with that district and couldn't beat Gerlach. But she had such support from our state leaders that there was no room for an opponent, leaving us stuck with her.
I'm judging Emannuel's full body of work, which includes wins in North Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and California. Add to that Senate pick ups in Virginia, Rhode Island, Montana, and Missouri, and I think the party did a damn good job overall.
I like Bernie Takes No Prisoners' thinking tonight.
ReplyDeleteJust a question to Bernie though.... in another post, you talked about the independence of the Lehigh Valley voters, something I saw smack Charles in the face, especially in Lehigh County. Supressing the base therefore seems rather fruitless, so is that why negative campaigns fail so often in the Valley? Or is it just that their done so poorly?
ReplyDeleteGrasshopper, you are wiser than your years...
ReplyDelete1) Dent has ALWAYS followed the same script during every campaign: come out early with an intense NEGATIVE attack and define his opponent EARLY (poison the well);
2) Yes, I said that Lehigh Valley voters are more independent... but I also said that they are MORE educated, which means that a flimsy attack on Dertinger for being in the same zip code as Mike Solomon did NOT inflict a fatal wound on him early on in the campaign;
3) HOWEVER, Toomey's negatives against Ed O'Brien (TV & radio) were VERY well done, but they still did not reach the level of supressing the vote;
4) Dent's negative TV ads did not even come close to the combined TV buys of Gerlach/Murphy on Philly TV (which were 99% negative, except for the 1 where Gerlach looked into the camera and called Murphy a liar)... you CAN'T supress the vote with a puny media budget -- you have to barrage people and inundate them with 16 negative ads in 15 minutes of news adjacencies, until they GET SICK of campaign ads, turn off the tube, and believe that "they're all crooks and liars" and decide then and there that they are NOT going to bother to vote;
5) I personally know GOP campaign managers who have paid telemarketing firms to call DEM voters 8 and 9 times during dinner time just to piss them off and get them to the point where they say, "If you call me ONE more time, I'm not voting for ___!" And, then of course, they call them 3 more times...
Makes sense. I'm taking notes here, so thank you. Experience I am lacking. I always knew that negatives were designed to suppress the opposition's base, as for claiming I'm good with that skill yet, I have some lackings.
ReplyDeleteFeel the force, Luke....
ReplyDeleteOne can only hope....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeletewell I'm going to spend a few days seeing where the money from the valley went I can't imagine that only 23k left the valley and went to Loser Murphy
ReplyDeleteGreen Dog,
ReplyDeleteSince you seem to be on a Murphy kick, let me double it for you. About $10k left in a night to her and Patrick when Don Cunningham held a fundraiser at the new Starter's in Bethlehem for them. You still don't seem to get the point though, it's not the donors fault for giving to her, it's her fault for running a shitty campaign and not spending that money in any kind of effort to make up the small margin she lost by. Good job targeting and fundraising for her, bad job by her.
Yes but that was it for him she didn't stop
ReplyDeleteGood for her. Candidates will fundraise, if people want to sign the check, good for them! The HRCC accepted a $100k check from an oil conglomerate in the last week or two to try and knock off John Siprtoth up in Monroe. Fundraising's only line is the national border, which is rather porous these days....
ReplyDelete