Why Did McClure Finish Third in Pa.07 Congressional Race?

On his Facebook page, Lamont McClure wonders how he could have lost the Pa.07 Congressional race in the face of a poll right before the election showing that he had the highest net favorable by about 5%. His favorables are actually much lower than those of John Morganelli when he ran for Congress a few years ago, and he lost as well. The polling might be wrong, but I believe that there are three reasons why McClure fared so poorly. First, Brooks' portrayal of himself as an Everyman resonated. Second, though McClure likely had nothing to do with the negative campaigning by LeanLeft against Brooks and Croswell, it probably backfired. Third, McClure himself made unnecessary enemies during his eight years as NorCo Exec. 

Results are still unofficial, but the combined four county result shows that McClure actually finished 3rd of 4 candidates. Brooks (28,078); Crosswell (14,528), McClure (13,724) and Obando-Derstine (12,136).

A Morning Call account claims McClure lost every district in NorCo, his home county. That is inaccurate. He certainly was blown out in Bethlehem and Easton, but did manage to pick up some voting districts in Bethlehem Tp (where he lives), E Bangor, Lower Saucon, Plainfield, Upper Mt Bethel, Upper Nazareth, Washington and Williams Tp. He lost Wilson Borough, where he was an ardent advocate for the Dixie tax break. His showing was certainly disappointing, but his message reached some voters. Perhaps he should have done better in his home county, but that is Brooks' home county as well. 

Where he really got hammered was in Lehigh County.  Ryan Crosswell, who just moved to the Lehigh Valley in January, beat McClure by 804 votes. McClure was even beaten by Obando-Derstine, and finished 4th in the county that matters most. 

McClure and Crosswell are both attorneys. Their polished style ordinarily would help them, but voters were looking for someone with whom they could identify. Rightly or wrongly, and I believe wrongly, that found that person in Bob Brooks. He had the right message for this race, to say nothing of money and endorsements. 

This campaign was marred by a slurry of negative attacks from a PAC calling itself "LeanLeft". They were aimed at Brooks and Crosswell and attempted to prop up McClure. This group is thought to have been a Republican front, although hard proof is yet to be found. While negative campaigning usually works, it appears to have backfired. I think many voters may have been turned off by the over-the-top attacks as well as the portrayal of McClure as the "progressive."

Finally, McClure has been his own worst enemy. In his eight years as county executive, he made many enemies he never needed to make. He actively worked against the re-election of Lori Vargo Heffner, who as NorCo Council President, voted with him 90% of the time. His frosty style with people who do not know him alienated many county employees, and yes, some of them vote. And I don't know what he was thinking, but it was amazingly stupid for him to call the boss of a county council member just weeks before his election in an attempt to pressure that person to vote for a tax break to facilitate the building of luxury apartments. 

This was McClure's race to lose, and he did.