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Monday, October 21, 2024
538 Gives Trump Slight Edge
According to 538, Donald Trump wins 51 times out of 100 presidential election simulations. It considers the race a toss up. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
33 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
This race feels so lopsided its not even funny. Trump by a landslide.
ReplyDeleteWith the two candidates, it's more like throw up.
ReplyDeleteThe Liz Cheney endorsement is a major backfire. All of Cheney's previous quotes about Harris are now surfacing and they're brutal. PA still has a cheating problem, though. We're already being warned about long delays in counting votes, even after all counties modernized in the last eight years. Delays = cheating. Trump will lose PA and lose the election. NorCo's descent from the best in the state to the worst in the state in just two cycles is a perfect example.
ReplyDeleteWell thought out and detailed analysis. Delays = cheating, I'm gonna use that one. Thanks!
DeleteDemocrats pushed A horrible candidate to the forefront in a circumvention of any type of democratic order. And now they’re panicked.
ReplyDeleteThe more she appears in public or speaks, the more the polls shift.
Even with poll reporting like this, it remains totally implausible that Harris would garner more votes (in an honest election) than Trump. Direct reports from the ground, visuals, etc,’ show Trump more popular than ever. He’s clearly made inroads with several key voting blocks.
ReplyDeleteWhatever election result is announced, this will all be heavily contested. I’m almost afraid for what could happen
I'm delivering signs to people around the Lehigh Valley and the Harris signs are getting stolen off of properties within days of being put up. I've personally delivered over 500 and now working to replace them. I can't even begin to estimate how many people have told me they aren't willing to put up signs because they don't want their houses vandalized. If by"visuals" you mean the number of signs, you can't go by that - signs don't vote.
DeleteI'm also knocking doors every weekend and I've going plenty of Rs voting for Harris but not a single D voting for Trump. I'm not sure what direct reports from the ground you've been seeing but the reason the polls are so close is because this is actually a very close race.
I do, however, agree with you that everything is going to be heavily contested.
Harris should do more public speaking engagements.
ReplyDeleteShe’s so inspiring and impressive, especially when she’s nodding her head up and down and pointing a cocked index finger at the people she’s trying to bullsh$t.
I think tRump needs to do more rallies also. Who doesn't love to see him do his double jerk-off dance?
DeleteCNN spent the morning talking about how, if Kamala loses, it will be because of racism and misogyny.
ReplyDeleteSlow walking or grinding counts to a halt in order to figure things out is necessary to prevent a felon fascist from winning. It's technically cheating. But everybody cheats and the stakes are way too high. Blue run counties must save this election. If Shapiro had been the nominee instead of the anti-Jew Harris coup, he'd be ahead by 10 points. But we are where we are. The country hangs in the balance.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit. Bernie, I hope you check the IP of this commenter to make sure its nobody that has a shred of actual responsibility in real life.
DeleteJustifying cheating because of your own demented bias is not only immoral, its boarder line psychopathic.
This is what most honest Americans suspect when swings states take days to report. Cheating.
This isn't 2020 anymore and its as obvious as ever that TRUMP is the favorite.
Not that this is any indication of the outcome, The Harris campaign should be pleased with the results in early voting and perhaps why Trump is now doing three campaign stops in North Caroline today. Democrats are early voting, on average, about 10 percentage points over Republicans.
ReplyDeleteThese are the States that Democrats have outperformed Republicans and vice versa, so far: Democrat outperforming on the left, Republicans on the right:
Wisconsin Georgia
Maine Ohio
New Hampshire Tennessee
Rhode Island Indiana
Vermont North Dakota
Connecticut South Dakota
New York Nebraska
New Jersey Kansas
Maryland Oklahoma
Delaware Montana
North Carolina Wyoming
Florida Idaho
Pennsylvania Utah
Virginia Arizona
Michigan Alabama
West Virginia
Minnesota
Illinois
Iowa
Texas
Colorado
California
Oregon
New Mexico
Nevada
When I posted early voting at 10:25, I put several spaces between the States, but it obviously didn't post that way.
DeleteTo reiterate, Democrats have outperformed in Wisconsin, whereas, Republicans outperformed in Georgia.
After Michigan (Democrats) and Alabama (Republicans), the rest of the list favors Democrats.
I hope this makes more sense.
God help us should Trump win. He’s the most despicable person on earth. I don’t understand his appeal
ReplyDeleteThat's because you're a brainwashed far left nut job.
Delete@2:07
DeleteStop. MAGA is the epitome of being brainwashed by a system that caters to oligarchs and corporate greed on the backs of the working class. The law of so-called law and order is literally voting for a convicted felon. But that's okay with you because he's rich and white.
Liberals don't worship our politicians, we hold them accountable and vote them out if need be.
Now who's been brainwashed again?
Trump barely won in 2016, then MAGA/GOP lost in 2018 the house in, 2020 White House and Senate & again in 2022. The fact that people are deluding themselves into thinking Trump is going to win is hilarious. Go ahead Charlie Brown, kick the football.
ReplyDeleteIt looks close, but I smell a sizeable win for Harris over that fat ass tangerine fecal stain piece of human shit tRump.
ReplyDeleteIt's not the appeal, asshole. It's the straight forward policies.
ReplyDeleteTrump's "straight forward policies." Now that's some funny shit right there!
DeleteTrump is fat, old and tired. Put him out to pasture already. He's only running to try to avoid going to jail. The GOP is utterly wrecked. His voters are pathetic. Yup, I said it. They should be ashamed. Voting for a felon who has declared bankruptcy four times... because he's a great business man, haha! These folks are so dense as to think Trump cares about them. His own wife -- oops, his own THIRD wife -- doesn't even like him. The rest of the world thinks Trump voters are the dumbest people in history... putting up all sorts of silly ass signs in their yard. Not for the rest of the GOP candidates, just Trump the con man, who sells them shoes and watches and fake money, bibles, fabric that might maybe possibly be part of a suit he wore (but probably not). He's got all these poor fools over a barrel. He's going to fix everything! Haha. Dumb as dirt.
ReplyDeleteHe'll fix everything, but only after you buy his bitcoins.
DeleteUnbelievable and predictable. Democrats, whenever frustrated in their attempts to convince others of a view they espouse, immediately switch gears. They become juvenile playground bullies. They fall back to name-calling and outrageous claims about people they never even met.
ReplyDeleteTotal frustration breaks them. They’ve simply run out of intellectual means of defense. Check some of these replies! Hopefully, it’s all from the same person. But, I doubt it. Yuk!
Your hyperbolic rhetoric is meaningless, at least we're not voting for a convicted felon.
DeleteThe time for convincing has passed. Trump voters had their chance after JAN6. Instead they attempted to pretend it didn't happen. They're still living the lie that Trump won in 2020. Newsflash: he lost. It's time to tell it like it is. The MAGA faithful are dumb as dirt. They are being duped on the daily. Their leader has been disgraced in so many ways. In the last few days, he stood on stage swaying for more than 30min playing songs he didn't have artist approval to play instead of hosting a townhall on national policy issues. Trump embodies the worst of America, and it's time for the nation to move on.
DeleteI want to give a big shout out to all those living in an echo chamber thinking that Trump is going to win in Pennsylvania.
ReplyDeleteOh, you have no idea...
Anyone who would vote for Harris is mentally retarded
ReplyDelete...says the typical, uneducated, low information, deplorable red hat cult member
DeleteEverything about Trump is seedy and sketchy. Here's his chief accountant at the Trump Organization.
ReplyDelete...a grand jury heard evidence against him. Weisselberg surrendered to the Manhattan District Attorney's office in New York City on July 1, 2021, hours before the grand jury's indictments against him and the Trump Organization were unsealed. Weisselberg was charged with 15 felony counts for evading $344,745 in taxes over 15 years. He initially pleaded not guilty, but on August 18, 2022, he pleaded guilty to all 15 counts of grand larceny, criminal tax fraud and falsifying business records. As part of the guilty plea deal, he agreed to testify against The Trump Organization at trial and to pay "almost $2 million in back taxes, interest and penalties and waive any right to appeal."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Weisselberg
I'm seeing pretty negative posts on this thread. The tone is heading downhill. Thing is, we need to be able to get along. I love my neighbors, even if I know some of them don't agree with my outlook. I live right in Nazareth Borough. I'll be straight up with everyone here. I'm voting for VP Harris, and love it or hate it, here's my reasoning. Feel free to scream at me and call me names, but just do it after you read. ;)
ReplyDeleteI think the biggest problem we face as a nation is affordability and economic inequity. We have tremendous wealth, great companies, A+ energy sector, B+ infrastructure, lots of millionaires and billionaires, but for example, 25% of our seniors live in poverty. It's terrible. Yes, our southern border is a problem. Immigration policies have needed an overhaul for decades. Yes, crime and disorder in cities are a problem, but (A) no, those are not being caused primarily by illegal immigrants, and (B) city crime is a problem that mayors and governors need to manage, not the POTUS.
Inflation over the past few years has been absolutely awful. It caused my family to forgo purchases, change our plans, adjust our grocery list, and pare back on non-necessities. The thing is, it was a global phenomenon resulting from COVID shutdowns. It wasn't Biden's fault. It wasn't Trump's fault. The POTUS is not really responsible for inflation. It would be great if the White House could use a magic wand to set prices, but that's not how US capitalism works. We rely on a non-political entity (the Federal Reserve) to manage that with long-term stability in mind, and they have, but it took years to get inflation under control. Interest rates are sinking now. Prices are more stable. Eggs and bread and milk are still too expensive, but at least prices aren't rising.
So now we're at a decision point, and the main question for me is, who will look out for the folks who need help? For me, that's the Democrats. Lower taxes for the average family. Support unions trying to get better pay from management. Figure out how to help families with children afford childcare. Reduce the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs. Also, tone down the harsh rhetoric.
Trump has made a case for a set of major economic moves. He wants to cut taxes, but GOP tax cuts have always tilted to the rich. Rich folks don't need the help. He wants to slap huge tariffs on all imported goods. What will that accomplish? It will cause destabilizing inflation in the short term, just like the COVID inflation. It sounds like he wants to save money by pulling us out of NATO, but again, a very destabilizing move that will cede power to Putin and Xi, unfriendly trading partners.
Trump is also promising to do some very drastic things domestically I don't think we need. Using the military to deport thousands of folks out of Allentown (which is now majority Puerto Rican/Dominican)? Sounds horrible to me. Abolish the Department of Education. Why?
On abortion, I lean left. On climate change and environmental concerns, I lean left. But the main thing is helping middle class folks. Helping folks who are trying to make ends meet. Like look at Governor Shapiro working to make state college cheaper (https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/josh-shapiro-overhaul-pennsylvania-higher-education/3757910/). Believe it or not, the Dems are for working people. Thanks for reading.
Fellow poster, I appreciate your reasoned contribution. I believe some of your assessments are incorrect and am fine with you voting according to what YOUR research has shown to YOU to be true.
ReplyDeleteVoting is what matters most. If that final selection is different from mine, so be it. I understand no candidate ever wins unanimously. I do KNOW, however, in today’s America, our elections are tampered with. There really IS a problem with cheating here, and that problem is getting worse. That’s not fair to either of us. Denying the issue helps no one.
My assessment is, Donald Trump is clearly the best candidate to bring about the changes I want to see. Donald Trump will get my vote.
Fingers crossed, both of our votes are counted as we intended.
If Trump wins, so be it. I'll keep on trying and pushing harder the next time. Eventually, you'll recognize how despicable he truly is.
ReplyDeleteUntil then, I cannot help you.