Guilty Verdict in Trump Case Means Nothing, But Acquittal All But Guarantees His Re-Election

Although former President Donald Trump is currently facing federal and state charges in four different jurisdictions, only the Manhattan case will be concluded before the election. No matter what the outcome might be, I doubt a guilty verdict will change many minds. He will continue to portray himself as the victim of a political prosecution being heard by a Democratic jury and a trial judge out to get him. But if he is acquitted, or even if there is a hung jury, he will certainly claim vindication. Moreover, a "not guilty" verdict will almost certainly win him the Presidential election. 

The Manhattan case, the weakest prosecution against Trump, is like a precarious house of cards. You pull just one card out, and the case comes crashing down. The prosecution must prove that Trump, not his accountant, falsified business records in payments to his lawyer, Michael Cohen, a convicted liar and thief. The government must prove that checks to Cohen for legal services were actually a series of payments reimbursing Cohen for buying off a stripper who allegedly had sex with Trump. What's more, there has to be proof beyond a reasonable doubt that these payments were made for the purpose of influencing an election.   

Lawyers often settle disputed on behalf of their clients with monetary payments. That's how most civil cases work, although the lawyer usually pays with is client's money instead of his own. These are legal services. So what is false about noting the reimbursements to Cohen as such? 

Assuming that these really are falsified records, there is scant evidence that directly ties Trump himself to the falsification. I'm unaware of any evidence from sources outside of an unbelievable liar and thief that directly ties Trump to this notation on the checks paying Cohen.  

Finally, there was evidence from the prosecution that Trump tried very hard to keep this story away from his wife, even to the point of hiding newspapers she might read. 

Though I detest Trump and believe he is a threat to our democratic form of government, I have grave doubts about the merits of the case against him in Manhattan. My opinion might be different if I sat through the trial. But based on what limited information I have, I myself have a reasonable doubt about his guilt. 

The strongest case against Trump is the one premised on his obstruction of federal attempts to retrieve classified documents. But that is years away, if ever. 

Whatever the verdict might be in Manhattan, I see no downside for Trump. If he loses, he can claim he was set up. If he wins, he will be the next President. 

That is why this case should never have been brought.