Steve Thode has been performing a true public service by keeping track of the LV's COVID-19 numbers. Here's his latest report. In a word, depressing.
As of Sunday, December 12, Lehigh and Northampton County combined have reported 4,094 new COVID cases the past 7 days; and, NorCo set a new 7-Day record with 1,959 cases.
The DoH doesn't report statewide cases on weekends, so I don't have an update on the statewide rate.
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
How do these Cases map to actual morbidity and mortality by clinical / demographic category?
ReplyDeleteIn other words, how many of the individuals counted as a case were elderly? Juveniles? Working age?
How many had one comorbidity? Two? Three?
How many were asymptomatic? Had short term minor symptoms? How many were hospitalized? How many died?
Lacking that specificity, a count of "Cases" tells us very little. Alas, because of that, it is a metric often used to enflame rather than inform.
The public deserves better, but public health organizations aren't providing it -- even though they easily could.
Bernie,
ReplyDeleteCan Steve give a further analysis of the numbers?
It would be nice to see how many of the new COVID cases are from vaccinated vs unvaccinated persons.
Then break it down vaccinated 1st, 2nd or 3rd shot.
Unvaccinated and those who believe they have natural immunity.
Has any local health system or Pa. state system started to regularly test samples? I am assuming these positive cases are the Delta.
ReplyDeleteI would expect that all positive tests are not conclusive with what variant this is from. This may be different for people actually admitted into the hospital were more conclusive tests may be had.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that if anti-body tests were polled, we would find that many more people have been infected. I suspect that this crisis will not end until the vast majority of the population will have been infected and recovered from covid. We could know a lot more about this if the NIH and CDC would actually do surveys on how many have been infected?, how many have been re-infected?, how many have been vaccinated and infected?
ReplyDeleteIt seems they consider this unnecessary and irrelevant information, just keeping getting more shots is their plan.
I think 1:23AM asks VERY important questions. These are not just relevant questions, but questions that REQUIRE more complete answers. Numbers are just numbers. They are pretty useless without relativity and context. Without supportive detail, these sums and charts can be spun into just about anything that suits one’s mission.
ReplyDeleteWhat mission? Are the presentations intended to provide comfort, or fear?
No one should decide the best course of action for themself without knowing much more than provided here. Still, we do need data to consider. But, what of it? Simply do your own additional research and choose what is best for YOU. You can’t possibly know enough about other individuals to simply criticize and call those people disparaging names. Foolish effort by anyone who chooses that approach in response. But, we see it all the time, sadly.
My "thanks" goes out to the unvaccinated and unmasked. You're doing a terrific job!
ReplyDeleteWe are told to keeping getting more shots, without much in real data, just increase or decrease in cases. Now we are told it will take 75 years to provide the details of these vaccine studies and discussions. 75 years, just that revelation, that everyone living today will likely be dead is a very scary thing to contemplate. What the hell are they doing?
ReplyDeleteThe chart shows a similar blow up in cases at about this time last year; just before vaccines were widely available to all. Like last year, I'm now hearing of numerous friends and acquaintances who are at least mildly ill. It seems we've made little progress in 12 months - even with vaccines - and I wonder if we'll be repeating this thread in another 12 months. The history of the numbers give little hope. This all just sucks.
ReplyDeleteSo, 9:41, who's telling you 75 years--the scientific likes of Kanye West?
ReplyDeleteOh, if only there was a vaccine and maybe also a thingy that we could easily put over our nose and mouth!
ReplyDelete9:41 - Could you elaborate?
ReplyDeletePfizer BioTech's original filing asked for 55 years. I believe, but cannot cite, that they've asked for an additional 20 years. There is cause for concern re: transparency. This is a Nov op ed distributed via Reuters ...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reuters.com/legal/government/wait-what-fda-wants-55-years-process-foia-request-over-vaccine-data-2021-11-18/
If you want to know what effect a drug will have after 20 years, you COULD wait 20 years. Of course, that doesn't really work in an emergency, does it?
ReplyDeleteIn the alternative, I'm willing to rely on what the reputable scientists say about what shorter-term tests--and the related science--indicate. That's why I'm fully vaxxed and boosted. Nothing is foolproof--but we know A LOT about the harm that Covid causes, especially to the elderly.
NOT a difficult choice, frankly.
@1:23 & 8:46 - while answers to those questions can be informative and possibly illuminating in their own right - the basics of the #'s presented are equally important. Higher case loads regardless of comorbidities, mortality or age, means further stress on our medical community.
ReplyDeleteFewer beds in ICU, fewer doctors/nurses available for other non-COVID ailments, reduced availability of medical equipment and supplies, which means longer waits for patients, longer hours for medical staff, which in turn creates a domino effect of reduced services for folks who actually need attention.
Yes for the bulk of society, many will tough it out at home for a few days with basic fever and chills, lack of smell or taste for some time afterwards, but for some the situation will become much more dire.
Its very easy to dismiss or minimize COVID when the only impact on you and your loved ones is inconveniences to every day life, having to wear masks, requirements for vaccination for employment, etc., but that really pales in comparison to someone who has to wait an extra hour for an ambulance or a bed in an emergency room.
11:51 - The article revolves around a FOIA request to the FDA. The request covers 329,000 pages which need to be redacted to protect identities of people enrolled in the trials and trade secrets. Thinking out loud, I'd rather have the FDA pour resources into reviewing submissions for life saving drugs.
ReplyDeleteYou need to read between the lines. Your original post suggested something nefarious, turns out it's related to staffing. "The FDA proposes releasing 500 pages per month on a rolling basis, noting that the branch that would handle the review has only 10 employees and is currently processing about 400 other FOIA requests."
This has nothing to do with Pfizer asking for 55 years in their original filing. Try reading it again.
Stop testing people who are vaccinated and have no symptoms.
ReplyDelete3:11 you are a idiot
ReplyDeleteHe really isn’t. It’s 100 percent true. You dumb rednecks have the brains of amoeba, it’s easy to brainwash you with “patriotic” Christian nationalism and talk about “GUNz” and you dolts fall for it every time.
Delete@6:37: Truth hurts. It's not to late to admit that the grifter is gonna grift to the simple minded...
ReplyDeleteI really get a kick out of all these SO CALLED professionals giving us their opinions on your blog. They are opinions and like an asshole, everyone has one. When the doctors at the hospitals tell you that 100 people died today from a form of covid and all of them "were not vaccinated" that doctor is giving you a clear message. This is going on all over the country. What do you need to hear from these doctors? They are telling you that if you are not vaxxed the chances of you, your children, your mothers and fathers, and family and friends are in the high risk category for getting and spreading the virus and maybe even dying from the virus. You have only yourselves to blame when you or your family suffers illness and aybe even death. Get vaccinated you morons.
ReplyDeleteIt seems all our best efforts and brightest minds have apparently failed. Yet, we're about to reimpose the same measures that have apparently failed. Can we change direction and hard at antibodies testing and therapies? Probably not because those are not profitable paths, and require an admissions that we're going to have to live with this for a long time and strategies to stop the virus in its tracks are folly. I blame everybody, including myself.
ReplyDeleteYes 6:56 you come up with a god thought but also how about if we change a path and segregate all those that have gone unvaccinated. And anyone that lies about their vaccination goes to jail from the time it becomes apparent until such time as COVID magically disappears. AND IF THEY CREATE OR PRSENT A FALSE DOCUMENT THEY DO JAIL TIME ON TOP OF THAT FOR FRAUD.
ReplyDeleteWow ... I appears that 2:12 has never heard of the Constitution, let alone read any of it. It's dangerous ideologues like you that truly endanger our freedom. Please don't ever run for office.
ReplyDelete@2:12 LOL philly closing in on 550 murders this year and you want to lock up people who don't want to get vaccinated LOL. In NYC you have to show your vax card to get a sandwich but ask to show a photo ID to vote and it's somehow an assault on democracy.
ReplyDeleteMy spouse works for the federal government. They had to be vaccinated and they are. Why not make every single person who gets government assistance get vaccinated or lose it? My friend was apoplectic, she stated that those people would starve. So you can lose your career and starve and that's ok though LOL. Why limit private companies that employ 100 people, why not just mandate the entire country to get vaccinated? Biden seems pull this shit out of his ass, picking and choosing arbitrary numbers and groups to mandate. It's crazy!
Agree with 8:04 AM. We are in early stages of losing our freedoms in America. It happens in small steps. This handling of the Covid situation is a key point in the decline. Of course, because of big media and lousy politicians, you can’t mention what’s right before our eyes because you will quickly be called a kook. It’s much too disturbing a thought for many to handle. So, they discount the possibility and go about their merry way.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I’m concerned, hospitals and urgent care facilities are busier mostly due to unwarranted panic. Even individual physician’s offices are moving to online first appointments to help lessen the load. There’s revenue in that, too.
An N95 mask worn properly and faithfully will nearly certainly keep you from getting COVID. A military surplus M40 (about 50 bucks online) will do even better. Wearing a mask that actually works means you don't have to pester anyone else to wear a flimsy paper one that that barely works if at all.
ReplyDeleteIf, despite mounting evidence to the contrary, you believe the "vaccine" actually works, by all means get it -- and all the boosters you want. No one is trying to dissuade you (sane people don't care what you do as long as you don't inflict yourself upon them), but how 'bout mind your own business? My lovely wife was pressed by a few women as to whether she had the "vaccine," so she, in turn, asked them if they had ever aborted a baby or had the clap. That seemed to me the proper response.
The other thing that will make any significantly negative COVID outcome very unlikely is being healthy and under 65. Such people have every right to shrug off their very minimal COVID risk if they so choose, just as they are at liberty to shrug off the greater risk of driving on I95 or walking through Philly.
Given that, why do we have so many people so eager to control the actions of others? It seems that pathological disorder is really the point, not a virus that, for the most part, harms only those with one foot in the grave to begin with who are either improperly cared for or who fail to properly care for themselves.
The real "pandemic" here is one of wannabe totalitarians. *That* is spreading like wildfire...