Below are Northampton County's unofficial results, broken down by municipality in each of the four Council districts. Here's my analysis.
Biden's biggest victories were in the cities. He won convincingly in both Bethlehem and Easton, and this in turn gave him Districts One and Two. Trump crushed in the slate belt and northern tier.
District One was nearly 2-1 in Biden's favor and District Four was nearly 2-1 in Trump's favor. District Two was slightly in Biden's favor while District Three gave Trump a 2,000 vote margin.
Turnout matters. - This was a turnout, not a persuasion, election. There were few undecideds. Turnout was very high, at 74.19%. Given an extremely close race in a Democratic majority county, this means that Republicans turned out proportionately more voters than Democrats. Four years ago, GOP turnout was 90% in a race in which total turnout was 70%. Right now I am unable to obtain a precise number of Democratic and Republican turnout. There is little doubt in my mind, however, that GOP turnout was 90% or even more. I say this for two reasons. First, turnout in heavily Republican District Four was extremely high. It was highest in Kesslersville precinct, at 87.57%. In contrast, the turnout in most of the heavily Democratic South Bethlehem districts was pathetic. In the 3rd ward, it was just 28.86%.
Where are the Latinos? - A few years ago, some Latino hotshot had a meeting with NorCo pols and said he could deliver the Latino vote, but had some demands. He went on to list about 7,000 things that had to be done. This NorCo pol, who shall remain nameless, told this VIP to take a hike. "Contact me when more than three of you vote in an election," were his parting words.
The Latino vote last week was, as usual, nonexistent. Turnout in Wards 4 and 5, the most heavily Latino districts in Bethlehem, was 49.47% and 50.48%.
I get that there is no monolithic Latin vote. Some might support Biden. Others might like Trump. But they stayed home.
Ironically, Bethlehem has two Latin Council members.
Boroughs are Becoming More Republican. - Historically, boroughs have been home to many of the blue collars who work in the mills or cement companies that once dotted this county. They voted Democratic. That's changing. Trump captured the vote in Bangor, Bath, Chapman, East Bangor, Glendon, Nazareth, Northampton, N Catty, Pen Argyl, Portland, Roseto, Stockertown, Tatamy, Walnutport, West Easton and Wind Gap. Biden won only in Freemansburg, Hellertown and Wilson Borough.
Townships are Becoming More Democratic. - Just as boroughs have been home to blue collar Democrats, townships have been the home of Republican farmers. But farms are being replaced by warehouses (they call them "fulfillment centers") and massive residential developments for NYC commuters, and Republican farmers are slowly going extinct. Some traditionally Republican townships are now voting blue. This includes Bethlehem Tp, Hanover Tp, and Palmer Tp. Lower Saucon is on the verge.
Win the battle, lose the war? - Though Biden won the battle for Northampton County, it is clear that Democrats are losing the war for the hearts and souls of ordinary people. Republican voters tend to be more motivated. Urban voters may simply be unable to vote because they are more transient and generally have to work several jobs. They may think it makes no difference. Blue collars in the boroughs appear to be alienated by the elitism expressed by some Democrats as their jobs have disappeared. And as that happens, Democrats are disappearing, too.
Please feel free to provide your own insight. While this post does involve our political parties, I will refuse to publish any comment that makes sweeping generalizations. No tribalism, please.
Bethlehem Results
District Two
Easton Results
District Three
District Four
Trump was outside the normal world of politics. Unrestrained by any common decency he threw every conspiracy theory and personal attack at his opponents. People seem to love conflict and they lapped it up the same way the National Enquirer sells magazines.
ReplyDeleteBiden is old school and stuck to the issues which made him boring. Trump's failures as a President were ignored by his voters, believing he kept his promises only because Trump told them he had.
Trump will be a case study on America on the edge of fascism and how close this country came to losing democracy, had he been re-elected.
Forget it Bernie. The democrat's are toast in the county in 2021. Your boy will not win. In fact it is hard to see any of the county democrats' running in a party lead by Tara Zirinski as winning. These uber-left wing liberals in the county are out of touch with the average county resident. They are anti-law enforcement and all Green New Deal. They will find ways to defund the police.
ReplyDeleteThe system is built to deliver divided government when people are divided. It's beautiful. But great works of art are regularly defaced these days. Ds were punished at the state and local level after Obama's re-election. Rs were punished in each election since Trump's. The pendulum swings. This trend doesn't bode well for Ds in the upcoming off-year and mid-term. But it never does for the party with the most power. There's great bitterness, just as there was four years ago. Rs will act like #resist Ds on steroids and our divisions will widen. The bitterness and division drove record numbers to the polls. The system works. We were never better than this. Trump's greatest accomplishment is that he made America vote again, bigly.
ReplyDeleteI believe your numbers show an accurate snapshot of what exists in late 2020 but the future remains very unclear. Trump is a cult like charismatic leader who took over the Republican Party and brought many older blue collar former Democrats into his group of strong supporters. Many of the latter never did identify as traditional Republicans whatever their current registration. This leads to three questions about future trends. First what role will Trump have in the immediate future and also four years from now? Many people believe he will become a right wing media star in the short run but no one knows if he still could be a viable candidate in 2024. Second what happens to the Republican Party if Trump is no longer a viable candidate? There is no clear heir apparent who can match Trumps current appeal to the base that now dominates the Republican voting group. Third, what will changing demographics them self do to the bloc of Trump influenced voters? This group appears to be dominated by older white voters with less wide spread support from younger people. Trump himself made little effort to widen his base other than to get more of his existing base to actually vote, and there is little evidence that his base is growing in any demographic sense. Trump changed the face of the Republican Party both locally and nation wide. As both Trump and much of his his base grow older, Republicans may need to reinvent themselves to find new candidates and form new groups of voter support as today's conditions and numbers become things of the past.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff as always Bernie! Hopefully the turnout is the start of a nationwide trend, the more people who vote means the more politicians have to pay attention to them instead of just caring for a small segment of voters.
ReplyDeleteThe boroughs aren't a big surprise considering the way identity politics have been playing out the last 30 years. I will be interested to see the demographic breakouts to see what the margins were for women and college educated which is what probably tips the townships.
The USS America effectively shut off the radar and sonar systems on November 3rd. As the crew slowly deserts the bridge, the ship will strike the looming iceberg on January 30th. Fortunately, by sheer luck, the swamp had been held back enough to enable the ship to become stuck, not sunk, until the troops regroup under the newly diverse coalition led by Private citizen Donald J. Trump, and arrive in the nick of time in November 2022 to begin the process of righting the ship. As the tech sectors rejoice by raising the stock market in the next week or so, Team Biden has set in motion the derail option by excessive government spending and re-regulation of economy killing business operations, health mandates, and lockdowns. Gonna be a tough two years, but we will pull through. America First is still our plan.
ReplyDelete" The democrat's are toast in the county in 2021. Your boy will not win. In fact it is hard to see any of the county democrats' running in a party lead by Tara Zirinski as winning. These uber-left wing liberals in the county are out of touch with the average county resident. They are anti-law enforcement and all Green New Deal. They will find ways to defund the police."
ReplyDeleteZrinski is not the leader of NorCo Dems. I think that McClure woukld more appropriately be considered their leader. I do agree that he and the other Dems on Council will and should be tagged with some of her more ridiculous last-minute resolutions.
I do think McClure is safely on his way to re-election. Had the House and Senate flipped, the GOP would take it out on him. That has happened before. When Congress and President were Democratic, they tended to jam things down our throats. Voters took it out on county Democrats. But we do not have that scenario. Voters dumped Trump, but they kept a divided government. Republicans gained seats in the House and may have maintained their majority in the Senate. So there will either be gridlock or something we have not had in forever - bipartisan government. Biden has always worked well with Rs, so I suspect we may get some things done and the hard feelings should diminish over time.
In the meantime, McClure should win re-election. Zrinski is insane, but has a large following. If she seeks re-election, she only has to come in fifth to win. But I agree she needs to go. Believe me, I'll have more to say.
" Ds were punished at the state and local level after Obama's re-election. Rs were punished in each election since Trump's. The pendulum swings. This trend doesn't bode well for Ds in the upcoming off-year and mid-term. But it never does for the party with the most power. "
ReplyDeleteYour point is valid, but I think it is inapplicable when there is divided government at the national level. Hopefully, there will be more of a bipartisan approach. If the county were smart, which it is not, it would appoint Republican Cusick as next Council President and govern from the middle.
@9:55 - You're entitled to that opinion, but that is probably a bit optimistic.
ReplyDeletePrivate citizen Trump faces a mountain of debt and legal issues that will probably neuter his influence to begin with, and make no mistake, there are plenty of Republicans waiting in the wings with knives behind their backs waiting for an opportunity to take his throne.
A party that has won just one national popular vote since 1988 and seemingly doubled down over the past decade to appeal to white, rural, less educated voters is not a great harbinger of future success.
Whether people or dems want to admit it or not, Trump will have a long lasting impact on the country. He has revealed much of the corruption in our government and media. They can deny it, but many now see and understand. His last revelation in office may be the corruption in the election system. Now, it also seems that the elitist's in Washington hope to engage in retribution on Trump's supporters. If they believe they can do it in the dark they are mistaken.
ReplyDeleteThere's nothing middle of the road with Cusick. The constituents of Northampton County leaders, esp on County Council are seeing them for who they really are, selfish and self-serving. They prove how out of touch they are at almost every public meeting by there words and actions. Just look at the acceptance of the George Floyd artwork. There many people upset about that! Thank goodness for the transparency of their YouTube channel!
ReplyDeleteSadly, McClure may win re-election. But, he is losing support due to his actions. People are tired of his crying and hissy fits over NC not getting it's fair share of money. He comes off very blunt, rude and uncaring in his stories. It was said he emotes and I couldn't agree more! He and his administration are being seen for who they are, all about doing what has not been done in Northampton County by those before him.
The acceptance of the $100,000 for a garden at Gracedale seems to go hand in hand with the award he received for being 2019 Legislator of the Year by a LV labor group. He talks a good game about no warehouses, but pushed for job growth in the slate belt. But, what are they building there warehouses!
His support of Don Cunnigham and the LVEDC is suspect. At the same time, he started a war with the LVPC and Becky Bradley over funding issues, esp over a bridge that's on a Historic Register. He claims he has spoken to the Valley's Federal legislators about circumventing the normal means of transportation funding and leaving the LVPC and the LV Transportation Study because of a deal he made with Becky Bradley and the fact he says she's not keeping it- to tear that bridge down.
Hopefully some day Lamont will see himself as those he serves see him.
Biden won, but down ballot D's did not do well. PA will have a republican Auditor General, and most likely, a Republican Treasurer. Democrats were hoping to flip at least 4 state houses in the country, including PA. It looks like they didn't flip any, and in PA R's actually picked up seats. 2021 is a redistricting year so who controls state houses is very important. The other interesting thing is Trump got 32% of the hispanic vote. He got 18% of male black vote. Alarm bells should be going off at DNC headquarters about that. To say this country is divided is putting it mildly, there were many split tickets throughout the country, people voting for Biden, but voting for R's down ballot. As I see it the D's need to address their AOC left flank because I think some of the crap those socialists are trying to sell nobody wants to buy, like green new deal, socialism, and defund the police. For some reason those 4 squad members get way too much media coverage and suck all the air out of the room, driving more moderate people away.
ReplyDeleteIf, and this is a big if, if someone comes along that can keep the Trump working class coalition together while getting more traditional republicans back in the fol, and continue to grow the hispanic vote, they will have a strong future.
@10:43, if the immigration issue ever gets settled you will see many latino/hispanics vote republican. Spanish folks are very family oriented, religious, hard workers, and tend to be pro life. Trump got many more hispanics votes than anyone ever could have imagined. That's where the future of the R party is. Whether they realize that or not remains to be seen.
ReplyDelete@11:32 - very plausible. The first party that can openly and overtly pivot towards the center and demonstrate that they can govern from there will reap their just rewards.
ReplyDeletePandering to radical fringe elements like Antifa, & Greenpeace, or QAnon & Proud Boy militia types completely alienates suburban moderates and independents.
All Americans simply want is a level playing field for everyone, seeing the rich and/or the lazy get unneeded advantages in life builds resentment.
Government should protect and provide security for all of its citizens and finance/build/provide infrastructure that makes life, commerce and leisure more accessible to all.
"He talks a good game about no warehouses, but pushed for job growth in the slate belt. But, what are they building there warehouses!"
ReplyDeleteThey are not building anything yet. But land with close access to a major interstate is where warehouses belong.
There is probably going to be more division, you would not think it possible, but many are hard at work looking for any inkling of diversity that can be pitted against each other.
ReplyDeleteNow the sowers of division have even gotten to the point where a borough, will be contrasted with a township, when most folks can't tell the difference, a difference will be offered.
One thing we will likely never see again is a person with no political career, an outsider, run for national office again, especially the presidency. You'll have to come up through the ranks of politics, bury a few bones yourself, so as to never give up the game the way Trump has.
Even hardcore Trump supporters must recognized that Donald Trump has ruined his life, when he could have stayed in the game and just bought the politicians the way he used to, that's what K-street is all about.
I for one am looking forward to the possible entertainment of the Trump News Network that will likely replace Faux News so that the outlet can be brought back into the fold of Main Stream Media respectability.
Get ready for something called Trumpism, they will need that with him gone.
Also with Trump gone, mapping the silence will be more important than ever to chart a course forward. Mapping the silence so you will not trip over that which goes unseen and unheard right in the middle of the room.
I always thought a supervisor from Hanover or Bethlehem Township should run for council. They have name recognition. Hanover is run well & heard good things about Merhoten in Bethlehem Township, he is out and about in the community with a young family.
ReplyDelete2:18 why would they take a job that pays pennies on the dollar compared to the township pay they already have?
ReplyDeleteMcClure hate's Cusick and has told numerous people that eve thing Cusick does is for political gain. I doubt that a McClure Cusick marriage would work. Besides you would have to pick between Cusick and McClure when they disagreed. You love them both so that would be tough. Is Heckman not seeking it?
ReplyDeleteWhile you will be promoting McClure next year I am sure a republican will run. The way McClure is spending down the cash reserves will be a big issue.
@2:42 How much money do you think the townships "pay" them? Think they get like 4K a year. Council gets like 8K a year. Both before taxes. Unless you really need the money, don't think anyone does it for the "pay".
ReplyDeleteSo Bernie, it sounds like you think your man McClure will walk in next year. What about the comity council people? Are they running for reelection? Can they win or are the dems outside of McClure, toast,
ReplyDeleteI never said McClure "will walk in next year." I fully expect that his candidacy will be opposed. He might even have a primary opponent. I do think he's in good shape bc (1) Democrats in Washington are in no position to ram unpopular bills down our throats; and (2) He has a very good record in his first four years for getting things done and helping people during the pandemic.
ReplyDeleteAs for Council, I expect Bill McGee to win bc he has union money. I expect Zrinski to win (unfortunately) bc she has a following and only has to place fifth. Lori Vargo-Heffner is hard-working but is rather snide to people and has no following. I am not sure Heckman is even running. Peg is not. So those are the five at-large members.
https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/2020-11-09-complaint-as-filed.pdf
ReplyDeleteIf Lori Hefner has issues with being 'snide' then MvVlur will have issues with his arrogance and rudeness.
ReplyDeleteMs. Vargo-Hefner, snide? You have two of the most mean and nasty people heading the Adminntrations and you call her snide? Oh, that's right she should not be probing issues when your boy snows council. Since employees are not allowed to talk to council members how can they learn what is going on?
ReplyDelete