According to the most recent data maintained by Pennsylvania's Department of State (9/7/20), there are 8,748,726 registered voters in the Keystone State. These include 4,125,889 Democrats, 3,376,463 Republicans, 840,816 no-affiliation and 405,558 minor parties. So Democrats have a registration edge. But they did in 2016, too, when Donald Trump was elected President, At that time, there were 8,646,238 registered voters consisting of 4,172,826 Democrats, 3,280,202 Republicans and 1,193,210 unaffiliated or minor party voters. There are fewer Democrats now than there were four years ago, when Trump won a state he should have lost. Despite all the claims about a blue wave, Pennsylvania is increasingly a purple state.
In the Lehigh Valley, the data shows that Lehigh County Democrats have improved their position while Northampton County Democrats are losing ground.
In 2016 in Lehigh County, there were 109,353 Democrats, 78,062 Republicans and 37,293 others. Now there are 115,862 Democrats to 81,677 Republicans. Both parties have gained, but Democrats have done slightly better.
The situation is the reverse in Northampton County. In 2016, there were 98,929 Democrats, 73,638 Republicans and 39,026 others.
After four years of Donald Trump, the Democratic registration has barely budged. There are 99,253 registered Democrats, an increase of just 324 voters. In the meantime, Republicans have slowly but surely been increasing their numbers. They now have 77,532 registered voters, an increase of nearly 4,000.
The fact that Democrats have done so poorly at attracting new voters in a blue collar county is a bad sign for those who think NorCo is going blue this year. The numbers don't lie.
Democrats need to take a good hard look at their priorities. The party of the working poor has increasingly become a clique of elitists who have no understanding what it means to have no job.
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
Local Government TV
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Monday, September 14, 2020
50 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
In the list that you provided are also Democrats that switched to the Republican party. Why did they switch, many democrats are embarrassed to be a Democrat, when you have Democrats like Nancy, Chuck, Omar, Cortez, Tlaib and Pressley just to name a few that took part in the impeachment fiasco that cost millions of dollars. Then you have the women of the house of representatives that were told to wear all white clothes and that was an order during the presidents State of the Union address. They look like they were waiting to drive ice cream trucks to sell ice cream to the children, totally embarrassing.
ReplyDeleteYou hate the fact that progressives left women are the future . Tara Zirinski and others are the rising stars in Northampton County for the democrats. Even though all you do is push McClure and his cronies, she will prove it on November.
ReplyDeleteThe democrats are no longer the party of the common man, they have become the party of the fringes of society and the government worker unions. they also have attracted much of international corporations and silicon valley.They are all about more taxes, more government, less freedom. Also seem to be willing to trash any values that have been the bedrock of america.
ReplyDeleteThe republican party which used to be the party of big business has become more aligned with small business, the self employed, construction, and generally people who make things, including manufacturing unions. They are increasingly less supportive of foreign wars and more skeptical of trade agreements that favor international corporations. they have also been more supportive of family and traditional values.
There is definitely a re-alignment in the parties, Trump has just voiced that re-alignment and it will likely continue after Trump.
Also
I am an “old white man”, as I have been told again and again. The party that I have belonged to my entire life doesn’t want my vote.
ReplyDeleteNo problem, they won’t be getting it.
How can anyone vote for a dem-their plat form will destroy the USA,
ReplyDeleteLaw and Order. Stop the VIOLENT Protests. Free Health Care is not Free. Free College is not Free. Get a job. Even a $9.00 an hour job if you have to until something better comes up. Legal Immigration. No High Taxes. Save some money and stop buying $200.00 or more Air Jordan's, LeBron lives in a 100 million dollar mansion, (Yeah, he's oppressed), Don't fight the police, Don't shoot the Police, ... If you do the crime then do the time, Man up. All Lives Matter........
ReplyDeleteFor the past 10 years or so th Democratic Leadership in Northampton County have been uninspiring and lacking in any substance
ReplyDeleteI guess four years of being called racist, sexist, homophobic retards did not succeed in bringing back those disaffected voters. Weird, huh?
ReplyDeleteThen, local Dems defended Wolf as NorCo families lost loved ones at Gracedale because of his deadly mismanagement of the virus. All the while, Wolf and Ds and men in dresses wagged their fingers and lectured about crowds and masks and misgendering (whatever the f that is) and blah blah blah.
Just when you though Wolf couldn't possibly do more to re-elect Trump, bam! He closes bars at 10 PM. Wolf has been a one-man, Republican registration dynamo.
Yes, little Northampton County, PA could vote to return Donald Trump to office for a second term. But, it’s the much bigger national picture that counts most. Unfortunately, for Biden supporters, enthusiasm for Trump is at extremely high levels all across America. Forget the phony polls, just watch the videos on YouTube and elsewhere. Your favorite nightly news source is hiding plenty. Decide for yourself.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me, the current Democrat Party has allowed itself to be taken over by extreme radical elements. Does anyone really know who’s designing and paying for the messages being sent?
I’m hopeful the voting/counting process is clean. This nation is at an historic crossroad.
Trump and Kushner are both compromised financially, Russian and the Saudi's. How can anyone vote for him?
ReplyDeleteAll of the above spout the FOX talking points very well. You would think someone other than Donald J. Trump had been in charge for the last 3 1/2 years. Making America Great Again???? We are in the shitty situation we are in because of his lies, corruption, and divisiveness. He has sown distrust and left chaos in his wake. We are no longer the respected world leader we once were. We are distrusted by our allies and cheered by those who relish our dysfunction. Putin, Xi, Kim welcome the conman that sits in the White House. They've come to enjoy watching him do to us what they dream of. Destroy us from within.
ReplyDelete7:22, PA is a swing state and NorCo is pivotal. I am very concerned that after four years of Trump lies, there are only 324 New Democrats. Clearly something is wrong with the Democratic message and our local party leadership.
ReplyDeleteDemocrats are babykillers. Get your party to start protecting innocent life, and maybe some of us could consider voting for your candidates.
DeleteI think calling Northampton County "Blue Collar" is a bit antiquated anymore... Definitely more a mix of white collar commuters moving in over the past 30 years along the 33 corridor. That would tend to play well towards Republican registration, but on the other hand, many of those commuters have come over from heavily Democratic NJ/NY areas.
ReplyDeleteLooking at county wide races since the blue wave in fall 2018...
2018 - Northampton voted for Casey (54% - 44%), Wolf (57% - 41%) and Wild (52%-45%) over their Republican opponents.
2019 Primaries - Dems 15.4% turnout Reps 12.6% turnout.
2019 Fall - District Atty = Houck (D) 55.5% Carroll (R) 44.5%
Controller = Bassil (D) 52.4% Phillups (R) 47.5%
Not sure if Superior Court and Common Pleas were countywide results
2020 Primaries - Dems 38% turnout Reps 35% turnout.
That all said, Trump is definitely outperforming Biden in the all important election indicator of "flag and apparel sales" in Northampton County, that is simply undeniable.
Anyone who thinks the Carney Huckster is helping the common worker needs to get their heads out of Hannity's ass and research the facts. I can see it now if Cadet Bone Spurrs wins: "What do you mean I don't have any Social Security? What happened to Medicare? Why are there even more homeless vets on the streets?" The Orange ONe is absolutely awesome at pointing out the working man's problems (except of course the current plague which he will let spread across the land) but has done nothing but get his daughter patents from China while filling his own pockets.
ReplyDeleteI have seen sleaze on both sides of the political spectrum but the slime I have seen the last 4 years has shown that the "Artist of the Deal" has turned the Swamp into a Cesspool.
Local Democrat party leadership, We don’t got no Local Democratic leadership, we don’t need no stinking Local Democratic leadership.
ReplyDeleteYou nailed it Bernie, the Local Party is full of fools, why would anyone want to be involved with them?
ReplyDeleteEven Morganelli, a life long D, Switched his party affiliation
9:53, and how many of these transplants even bother to vote? My guess (and I admit it is just that) is that very few commuters are in the least bit interested. The Dems have really.been pissed off by Trump and his mankurts, but the Rs who support Trump are very enthusiastic about him.
ReplyDeleteI support Biden. I think we are in trouble.
We're in trouble for the mere fact that anyone in his right mind would support Biden.
DeleteMaybe Trump should get a second term. It might wake up the old bigots when Trump cuts their Social Security benefits as he intends to do. He's got to find the money for that wall.
ReplyDelete10.15 correct but it also pertains to national leadership, the two top candidates were near 80 years old and the younger candidates dont have any experience or knowledge of anything. How has this happened?
ReplyDeleteLets face it, JFK could not win a primary today in the new democrat party. Nor could bill Clinton. They would be classed as right wingers. No one wants to admit it, but Obama moved this party so far left that it no longer believes in the promise of america.
ReplyDeleteAs for Trump, if the democrats really wanted to make changes they had a guy there for 4 years that would have made a deal on DACA, healthcare, foreign intervention and bringing working class jobs back to america and prison reform and rehabilitation. Instead they so poisoned the system that we are on the verge of civil war and no matter who is elected president it will be chaos for decades.
ReplyDelete10.55 stop with the social security nonsense, this line wore out years ago.
ReplyDeleteAnyone one that would vote for such a deceitful person especially after all of the dishonest things that he has done should get their heads checked. Yes, I know "He's not a politician?" That's the republicans answer to all of his shady dealings. Our great country has become a laughing joke to the World. Its a sad day in American when politics become more important than integrity and respect for the office of the presidency. Trump has shown where his priorities lie. Those who vote for him will one day see that their ill fated trust in such a person be a failure beyond belief.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete10.55 stop with the social security nonsense, this line wore out years ago.
Has it really? Wake up. He hasn't been keeping it a big secret, depite his staff trying to shut him up.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/08/12/489401/trumps-plan-defund-social-security/
@11:14 - He is not a politician and has no desire to be a politician. He wants to be a dictator, semi jokingly asking for a term beyond 8 years, which his supporters just laugh off as him tweaking the nose of "The Libs".
ReplyDeleteIn the end, MAGA's will happily trade "American Democracy" (Yes, we all know its a Republic) in favor of a Dictatorship/Oligarchy, because their favorite would be Dictator/Oligarch hates the same people that they do and that is all they want.
Although yard signs can certainly be misleading, I live in A-town’s West End, which is heavily populated by “educated” people. Yards are crowded with Biden Harris signs. Three miles west of here in “working class” neighborhoods there are wall-to-wall Trump Pence signs. The “Trump Pence people” mow the lawns and fix the pipes for the “educated” class.
ReplyDeleteSome of the “educated” people have even gone to great pains to explain that “Defund the Police” doesn’t mean defund the Police, but merely to “repurpose” funding. Even though polls show large numbers of Black and Hispanics value a Police presence, and even though public figures like Congressman James Clyburn and Al Sharpton have gone out of their way to point out what a stupid slogan it is, the “Latte Liberals” (using Sharpton’s phrase) feel the need to white-splain what the words really mean, and how important the movement is.
Biden is finally scrambling trying to distance himself from the loony left members of his party, but we’ll see how well he can do so when he’s directly challenged on it in a debate and can’t hide behind polished ads and softball interviews.
Historically, to win an election each Party states “Here is our candidate, and here is why he/she is better for your future.” Better BECAUSE . . . . .
ReplyDeleteIt’s the “BECAUSE” part that fails for the Democrats this year. After 4 years, the latest Democrat Party has been unable to explain why their candidate is better. All citizens ever get is Trump is no good. Every time I ask someone to explain why Biden is the better choice, the responder stumbles and quickly resorts to the usual name calling and false allegations. You see proof of that here every day!
Trump has a solid record of achievement. People know why they prefer Trump. On the other side, Biden’s accomplishments, and now Biden himself, are kept hidden away. That strategy just isn’t working.
@BO 10:33AM - I would guess/assume a similar level of participation of these "New" transplants as the National average or really, what the last 2 year trends have shown.
ReplyDeleteAgain, no denying that the Trump Base is highly motivated and will absolutely turn out for him in November.
Trump won in 2016 by nearly 5,500 votes out of 146,000 votes cast (70% overall turnout). 2018 only had 117,000 votes cast (56% turnout). *MAYBE* a lot of Trump supporters sat at home in 2018 and that 14% difference is heavily Republican.
The one significant difference in polling #'s right now versus where they were at this point in 2016 is that the "Undecided" voter was in the high teens with a lot of people not liking either Hillary or Trump. Those voters eventually broke heavily for Trump or cast votes for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein (a little over 5,000 votes). The "Undecided" voters in 2020 are down to 7% now.
Both sides are motivated - it will be close in Northampton County, but definitely would play the "Under 5,000" margin of victory for either side.
And who is the head of the NC Dem's? Who has failed to gather more people to register as D's? Muncy should be fired asap cause he really is an independent pretending he is a true blue D. He could care less and the numbers prove it. Shame on the county D's for propping up this goof ball all these years. You get what you ask for D's. A loss to Trump in your own back yard.
ReplyDeleteTara will get romped in that red district. You know nothing about that region of the county if you think she has a prayer of winning. The local D party could care less about that region and they put no money into it and write it off as a loss every cycle. Muncy is a useless tool. Start at the top and surgically remove all the deadwood and burn it.
ReplyDelete12:18 - Regardless if your numbers are accurate, or not, I would think the amount of “undecided” would most definitely be smaller this time. The “unknown” guy (Trump) then had no record of accomplishment while working in Federal government. Big difference now. Trump has proven he can manage the job and fulfill the majority of his many promises. In addition, some of the promises Biden is making now are things Trump has already been doing successfully.
ReplyDeleteI just don’t think Biden is as necessary in the minds of as many voters as you believe. Had Biden been the candidate last time, instead of Clinton, I believe he had a much better chance to win. Now, he just appears as a short term placeholder for someone else.
i talk to a lot people on both sides, the overwhelming trait is republicans are generally happy and have a positive attitude, most democrats are unhappy and miserable, often times it is not a matter of wealth or financial security.
ReplyDeleteIf someone could explain what it going on here I would like to know.
turnout will be the key.
ReplyDeletetrump has to answer for Covid and his handling of this pandemic.All of his smoke and mirror games does not let him off the hook.He is the Captain of the ship.
I would like to thank trump for him gladly putting his supporters health and even their lives at risk.
He was willing to let others sacrifice for his political aims.
Or to prevent a panic---- What a guy.
From a couple of indications I have observed, Palmer Twp. management probably figures 1,000-1150 people would show . Yes that acceded the 250 rule and all that. Welcome Nazareth. My humble prediction. The Republicans will be out in that park. Trump , I predict will “thump” his opponent when dust settles. Bloomberg spending 100 million in Florida, wow. .
ReplyDeleteGood God.
ReplyDeleteReading these comments from Trumpsters touting how much he has done, accomplished, fulfilled, and the rest of the BS is mind boggling. The man is a disaster in both domestic policy and foreign policy. Other countries consider him an embarrassment to the U.S. and a true idiot incapable of leading the world. He is a joke among foreign heads of state, as they recognize how he can be manipulated easily with praises. He has filled his administration with "Yes" men and women. The smart ones who had loyalty to the Constitution and not the President got out. There is nobody left to steer the ship, or keep us all off the rocks. FOX has become his personal advertising network, with only a very few who call him on his blunders. Those that do, Trump wants fired.
Trump for another 8years could most likely drain the swamp creatures from the DC swamp!
ReplyDeleteThree predictions:
ReplyDelete1. There will only be one debate and it will be interrupted by some unforeseen "technical problem" and that's good enough for Joe.
2. Republicans will vote in person and overwhelm the mail-in clusterf**k the Dems thought will save them.
3. House, Senate, WH, and Norco will be as red as the stripes on the flag Dems keep hating.
Trump now says he knew the virus was deadly in February and yet told the American Public it would go away quickly!
ReplyDeleteHe is not the Leader our Great Democracy needs no matter what Party you are!
Time for a Change, and November 3rd can’t come too soon!
I believe America has had it with Trumps cons!
We are smarter than he thinks we are!
Democrats are not miserable, but tired of lies and deceptions by our so called leader!
Bullying will not be missed!
I have no idea of the promises that Trump has kept! Wall not built, He has not gotten rid of the Obamacare Health care as he promised!
His reality show won’t be renewed!
Scientific American from 2017 had article about pandemics . I personally am an hard R . I personally don’t Trump is the best leadership. My favorite of all Presidents of any anybody still alive to view Bernies Post Is — Harry S (no period) Truman . This was a man with integrity.
ReplyDeleteA lot of mix information from scourges that doesn’t matter. If your bright enough to own a home in Palmer or Forks and pay that mortgage,I’d think you would vote for yourself And get to school board meetings where their hyjackin your tax dollars on a Football field that’s cost $20,Million bucks for 16 hrs a year! And not Former VP and a prostate woman who is totally incapable.
ReplyDeleteTrump will win Northampton. The next year the Republicans will sweep Northampton County. Even with McClure handing out millions of free dollars it won't help. His incompemtemce is evident even with your daily ass kissing. The progressives' and labor shills on council will be gone. There are no real competent moderate democrats left. They have been and will be purged by the new leftist progressive in the county.
ReplyDeleteDelusional anti-Trump zealots are blind to his accomplishments over the past 4 years. Despite vicious attacks from the press and Dems, a bogus impeachment hearing and useless Mueller investigation, pre-pandemic our economy was the best it had been in decades, we all benefitted from tax cuts, the military has been rebuilt, the VA overhauled for the benefit of veterans, ISIS was defeated, two major terrorists taken out, justice reform passed, new peace deals in the Middle East. What are these Trump-haters smoking? And you can believe in your tiny minds that we are the "laughing stock" of the world if that further fuels your hatred of Trump. We are at least respected now by NATO countries that are finally paying their fair share. They, like many other countries like Iran walked all over the kiss-up Obama administration and his nepotistic sidekick, Sleepy Joe. They screwed this country to gain the love of foreign countries. Those on the left who claim to be "woke" are really in their own fantasy lands. But on November 3 they will wake up. From a nightmare of four more years of their boogeyman, Donald Trump.
ReplyDeleteThe slatebelt will vote for Trump because they havent figured out yet that he is screwing them. Easton and Bethehem will overwhelm the GOP and Biden will carry the county.
ReplyDeleteLove that Trump's cracker jack team put out a "Support the Troops" ad yesterday and the geniuses used Russian fighter jets in the picture. Good fucking grief.
ReplyDeleteThere are plenty of fighter jets out there to choose from, many actually made here in the USA and actually used by our military. Even some of our traditional allies have their own jets they could have mistakenly used.
But Trump used Russian jets. Honest mistake, subliminal slip, or just planting a big smoochie on Putin's tushie?
MAGA's you at best love a total fraud or worse a traitor to the country you think you love.
Today it was noted that the Orange One and anyone who gets close to him gets tested everyday as he holds rallies where people with no masks are cheek to jowl spreading the deadly virus to each other. He makes sure that no one sits or gets closer than 10ft to him including his staff at the table. Prez "Not Responsible" does his reality show sitting out of reach of harm while he watches the lemmings go over the cliff with a big smile on his face.
ReplyDeleteTrump drives me crazy but he has made some accomplishments. Obama was the worst foreign policy president in history. He left a middle east on fire, ISIS (remember, the JV team Obama said) posting videos of beheadings every day, a civil war in Syria where Assad was gassing his own people, (remember that red line Obama drew, then quickly ignored) North Korea shooting missiles over the Sea of Japan, Russia took the Crimea, a bad Iran Nuke deal, hostages all over the place, (remember Daniel Pearl being beheaded?)
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame that Trump is such a horrible person, because he has made better trade deals, has the UAE and Israel signing a historic agreement today at the White House. I just wish he'd shut the eff up and stay of twitter!
Trump needs to market his accomplishments every way he can, including Twitter. He has millions and millions of followers. Far more than he would have daily viewers on corporate television and radio.
ReplyDeleteThe usual messaging outlets have been shown to be 95% negative to whatever he does, and ignore any progress he has made as much as they can. Using Twitter is one way to work around his liberal media opponents.
Stupid is as Stupid does.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who votes for the fake Billionaire:
-who screeched that every candidate should release and show their taxes, then won't show his own (wouldn't want to show that Russian Oligarchy laundered money don't you know. For that matter, how many billionaires need to scam suckers out of 10K for a fake university?)
-who bellowed how Obama should show his school grades, but then threatened to sue the schools he attended if his grades were released and showed what a moron he was (is)
-who loudly proclaims his patriotism as he humps the flag but was an obvious draft dodger who calls vets and fallen soldiers "losers and suckers"
-who even more obviously shovels shit down his cult followers' throats about the Mexican Border being "almost done" with only 3% more wall added and 85% of the border still unfenced (and still waiting for that check from Mexico to pay for it)
-who claimed he would give us the bigliest healthcare ever, but so far the only action being taken is trying to eliminate the pre-existing conditions clause
-who knew the current plague would be devastating but "downplayed" it with the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives (of course now says he "uplayed" it, please ignore the taped interview. Remember what the Great Orange One says: "Don't believe what you see and hear. Believe Me").
-who has turned a large fraction of our citizens into cult followers who will ignore facts, evidence, and science and are proud of it waving their MAGA hats and flags as our country goes down the toilet and the rest of the world laughs at us and won't even let U.S. citizens in their countries despite the loss of revenue due to their fear of the pandemic.
The Cult has only two real reasons to follow the bloated one:
1. his hatred of the black and brown people.
2. They love to see people with sound minds, "the elite", upset and angry over the insane actions of our reality show prez.
It's pretty apparent who has the "delusional syndrome".