The Washington Post reports today that Biden-Harris has a 12-point lead over Trump-Pence among likely voters. But counting Trump out would be a terrible mistake, especially since this is a race that will be won or lost in swing states, including Pennsylvania.
As loud as I am on this blog, that's how quiet I am when I visit my local diner. I keep my ears open, and my impression is that many of both the patrons and servers support Trump. I am beginning to see the home-made signs again, but something really amazed me when I started my long bike ride on Saturday.
On the Lehigh River, there was a flotilla of at least ten rubber rafts making its way downstream. On one of these rafts was a gigantic Trump-Pence flag.
At this point, I think Trump still has a good chance of winning.
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
Local Government TV
▼
Monday, August 17, 2020
36 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
I understand this is a touchy subject but, yes, Trump should win easily. Hiding Joe Biden so much makes that whole candidacy suspicious. And, really, the VP choice isn’t the best. Now for the hard part . . . The only thing that can push Biden to victory is election tampering. I do expect it to be a factor.
ReplyDeleteI will vote for anyone or anything over Trump. And I love the Harris pick. But I agree, I think it is Trump’s race to lose. Very difficult to unseat an incumbent. And this incumbent is a master of manipulation who has many tricks in his toolbox. Undermining the USPS is only a tip of the iceberg.
ReplyDeleteTrump-Pence is the only choice if you don't believe in baby-killing.
DeleteChris E - "I love the Harris pick." Why? Didn't the primary process illustrated her popularity among fellow democrats.
ReplyDeleteKamala Harris is the final straw, now I just can't. I was always an independent that eventually knuckled under and defaulted to the democrats...but the Corona-tion of Harris by the party, as if pushing Biden wasn't enough, has left me only Trump if I wish to participate at all.
I used to support the Electoral College as a means to help the less populated states to still have a voice and not be mistreated (an example would be that a majority decides that one state will now be the country's garbage dump), but after seeing an election with the majority of over 3 million more votes for the LOSER...I think it's time for an amendment.
ReplyDeleteAnd while we're at it, how about a primary race with all the states on the same day?
ReplyDeleteI see the polls, which look eerily similar to '16, and wonder how he possibly wins PA again. Then, I think of day to day interactions (admittedly, mostly in the business world) and wonder how he doesn't win PA in a landslide. Everybody's mask wearing opens a political discussion that I prefer to avoid in business. But people aren't shy and the ones I encounter are highly motivated to make Ds pay for exploiting a tragedy to the detriment of elderly, school kids, and the state's economy.
ReplyDeleteSame poll, 2016
ReplyDeleteClinton 55, Trump 35,
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821
Because the collective Main Stream Media behaves like a Rwandan radio station, it's clear, just like in 2016, the democrats are not going to accept the results of the election unless, Hedge fund and voting machine maker, Election Systems & Software, gives them the victory.
9:41 AM
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'll bet he'll question the legitimacy of the election if he loses. Might even lead an impeachment based on made-up charges.
How could anyone be that evil?
There is definitely a quite rage out there, from a crooked FBI, arsonists and looters, and a corrupt media, If there ever was a silent majority it is now. The democrats put their hope in the black vote and suburban white women, then destroy the livelihood and safety of black city folks, and scare the hell out of white suburban women. I wish someone could explain this strategy to me.
ReplyDeleteGee, aren't you the one who pontificates that national polls are meaningless?
ReplyDeleteMake up your mind.
Trump is sabotaging the election. He has no scruples. He is anti-democracy. I am surprised you don't like him O'Hare. You are a lover of strong one man rulers.
ReplyDeleteHe has no chance if the elections are done properly without interference by his hence*man. RESTORE INTEGRITY TO THE OFFICE !
ReplyDeleteThe riots in chicago and portland. The collapse of resident safety in cities like Philly, NYC and San Francisco have my moderately liberal parents scared.
ReplyDeleteThey are in the voting block that always votes, the retirement/near retirement crowd and as they lose the ability to defend themselves due to age, the democratic push to de-fund the police pushes them more to the right and voting for Trump.
The national polls again are offering perception of a one national election ... Because of the electoral college we have 51 presidential elections becoming one in the electoral college ... Now if PA has a compact in regard to honoring the national count ... That is against the Constitution especially if the state gives its electoral votes to the national count because of the compact when the real PA electoral winner should have been someone else who had more votes than the national winner in the state.
ReplyDeleteI too, will vote for Biden/Harris!
ReplyDeleteYes signs, big ones with Trump, mostly in rural and some suburbs!
His base of 38 won’t leave him even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue! His repeated calling women Nasty, is not helping his case! Independent Women p, I talk to have had enough!
50% or more of people who believe in values of a Democracy will vote Trump out!
Voting is the key for this group!
Trumps biggest failing for some has been his ignoring the Virus and not leading our country in this Pandemic!
He has moved on!
Don't worry Trump will be out of the Whitehouse in time for the 2028 election to commence.
ReplyDeleteTill than just keep rolling on the floor frothing at the mouths not working just creating tension and chaos in America.
"Joe says he needs the 18-24 while Kamala says 18-24 are "STUPID"... yeah, thats a great ticket right there...
ReplyDeleteTrump 2020"
https://www.instagram.com/p/CD7ii2FAPqb/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading
ReplyDeleteCardi B interviewed Biden. He came out of the basement. I want her guidance as to who I should vote for. And Biden is really showing his supporters who his followers are and how they should act. Besides the regular Burn, Loot, Murder.
Yes any reasonable person would vote for him. https://www.salon.com/2020/08/14/mueller-prosecutor-glenn-kirschner-trump-is-a-career-criminal-guilty-of-negligent-homicide/
ReplyDeleteThis is 2016 all over again! the silent majority will come out in droves again.I said it be fore in this blog, and i will say it again, it won't be close! Demorats, your party is an absolute mess.Your leader Polosi is an absolute hypocrite, deplorable person! The Party needs an absolute overhaul! You need to get rid of the Establishment Democrats just like Trump did to the republican party!
ReplyDeleteI would say most Trump support will not poll to start with. Many are keeping quite. About 40% of all background checks from 01 may to 30 June apparently went to1st. Time gun owners out of 1.6 million and I got to believe their were a lot of Dems in there. That may signal converts .
ReplyDeleteI'll never say never, but if there is ANY integrity left in our democracy then Trump suffers a historic loss on November 3rd.
ReplyDeletePredictions:
-Barr announces some ridiculous, trumped-up investigation into some alleged misconduct by Biden mere days before the election ala Comey
-Young Black voters turn out in shocking numbers despite repubs' best efforts to disenfranchise, suppress and otherwise cheat
-Biden\Harris win both the popular and the electoral
-Trump cries it was rigged and further divides our country
-Trump spends the weeks after the election pardoning more disgusting criminals and lining his own pockets while he still can
The Constitution simply gives PA its electoral votes to cast. Nothing says that a state can't award its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, which is a fine idea whose time has more than come.
ReplyDeleteLook for this starting in 2024.
The Constitution simply gives PA its electoral votes to cast. Nothing says that a state can't award its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, which is a fine idea whose time has more than come.
ReplyDeleteLook for this starting in 2024.
1:22pm - Trump defunding social security and medicare and ignoring a pandemic bc only people who are already "compromised" aka old will die doesn't concern your parents?
ReplyDeleteBut citizens exercising their 1st amendments rights to express that police officers should not be allowed to kill people like animals in the street has them scared???
Somebody please make it make sense smdh
Every day for the last 75 days there has been constant riots that started out in major liberal cities and have moved to the suburbs. The destruction, the violence is a constant. The hate is (I don't even have a word for it. I am at a loss of words.) Basically there are two sides to every issue. White/Black Good/Bad Hate/Love Sadness/Happiness Law Abiding/Criminal, Freedom Loving/Socialist Lightness/Darkness Up/Down. I am sure you understand my point. And what I am seeing is a small minority is pulling a group who seems to be in lockstep with everything that is going on. Defund the police, tear down all statues, burn buildings, attack police. Destroy, destroy, destroy. And this side stays silent, they act like it doesn't even occur. I believe if you vote for the side who will not raise a voice against what is dark, criminal, socialist, evil ect. you are accepting of these values. There are not 3 or 4 sides to what is happening. This election is critical, Trump has some faults, yes he tweets too much. But most of you don't understand 10% of what he is trying to accomplish. A vote for someone other than Trump will bring the America to its knees. Both here and abroad, and The President has done so much to restore Obamas miserable foreign policy. We will be a banana republic. And God help us then, because with what is happening in the big cities will spread to all communities. I talk to everyone concerning politics. I have a several good friends who are considered Independents. They have friends on both the left and the right. I hear they know of no one who supports what is going on in the big cities and they will not vote for the political party that walks in lockstep with the true evil that is going on.
ReplyDelete75 days and counting. When is enough enough????? This election will be a landslide I predict. I pray every night for this country that I so love. I have personally helped my political party and have done things on my own to help towards the election. I have paid for 4,000 copies of ArchBishop Vigano's letter (dated June 7) to the President sent to Catholic voters. This is a must win election for Trump and for our Country. I hate to be around if Trump does not win.
It's fair to say Trump will be declared the winner by Trump. If he does win with votes he stays in office. If he loses with votes he stays in office. He's been priming the pump for the last few months trying to get his white supremacist base into a lather of how the election is rigged.
ReplyDeleteIf he remains in office another 4 years this country will be ruled by a dictator who will have lost what little cognitive ability he has left. A third grade mentality with a 7th grade education. God help us.
Because a minority of the country is enthusiastic about an illiterate buffoon being re-elected to keep racism great, and are waving flags and making signs, you think he has a "good chance of winning"?
ReplyDeletePlease. You're smarter than that, Bernard. Just imagine what a disaster this country will be after another 4 years of Trump. A real Trumpster bonfire.
Yes, I still think he has a good chance of winning. Some of my closest friends will be voting for him, and Democrats have squandered their advantage with violent protests, "Fuck the police," and a stalemate with stimulus talks. It is going to be very close. Again.
ReplyDeleteI disagree, BO. No protester speaks for all protesters, much less all Democrats.
ReplyDeleteThe polls will ebb and flow for the next 80+ days that much you can count on.
ReplyDeleteCounting on a repeat of 2016 is a bad bet. This isn't a race between 2 non-presidential candidates this time. Trump is now running based on his 4 years in office. He is no longer an outsider, he has a track record, some good, some bad that he is now accountable for, he can brag about it and also be attacked on it - that's politics.
His approval #'s have been a set of train tracks since June 2017, where he has been underwater by an average of 10% (which is sort of the same average spread we're seeing now in the election polls). That means opinions of Trump are pretty well set. 4 out of 10 love him and fly flags with his name and 5 out of 10 want him gone. Then you have the 1 out of 10 sitting on the fence. Trump needs 100% of those fence sitters to come over to his side over the next 3 months.
The good news for Trump is that he does have time. The bad news is he has a lot of work to do and needs to start seeing the needle moving soon. It will all come down to 6 states where he is currently down; Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - all states he won in 2016. #'s from Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Utah and Texas are also nowhere close to being considered "safe" for Trump at this point.
You need 270 Electoral Votes to win the White House. Right now, Trump has 119 in his pocket and they are going nowhere. If he holds GA, IA, OH, UT & TX that gets him to 203. He needs 67 more votes.
State EVs Recent Election Poll
Arizona = 11 (Biden +2.5)
Florida = 29 (Biden +6)
Michigan = 16 (Biden +5)
North Carolina = 15 (Trump +0.5)
Pennsylvania = 20 (Biden +4)
Wisconsin = 10 (Biden +4)
Trump needs some combo of the above 6 states to go his way and it must include either Florida or Pennsylvania, otherwise he loses.
For all the bluster I am reading from the far Right on here you would think the Great Orange ONe, who hides his taxes and school grades and medical records, would not try desperately to stop people from voting thru the mail where no major fraud has ever been found. Someone mention banana republic? You're living it.
ReplyDeleteThere is no silent majority or shy Trump voters not being counted, and expecting or counting on them to save Trump is child like wishful thinking.
ReplyDeleteThe legendary Shy Trump voters were basically undecided independent voters who didn't care for either Trump or Hillary and broke late and heavily towards Trump because of the Comey letter and the natural inclination of independent voters to go against the incumbent party.
Predictions or expectations of a Trump landslide win are comically misinformed. Not saying he won't win, but assuming there aren't any shenanigans, he has a clear win probability of 15%. Trump supporters need to start accepting that he is more likely to lose than win.
The silent majority will win the day.
ReplyDeleteIts going to be a popular and electoral college beat down to the point where even Trump won't be able to muddy up the results.
ReplyDeleteThen all the flag waving rally folks won't know what to do with themselves. Its going to be an ugly 2-3 months watching them flail around.