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Monday, June 01, 2020

Thode: LV Covid-19 Testing Has Dropped

Steve Thode, a retired Lehigh University professor, has been crunching the Covid-19 numbers. He has noticed that, though Northampton County has actually established its own Covid-19 testing center at Easton Hospital, the amount of testing being done has diminished. I believe (do not know) this is because fewer people are exhibiting symptoms, This would corroborate several scientific studies concluding that SARS-CoV-2 is weakened by sunlight, heat and humidity. This is precisely the time to ramp up testing and become proactive, as I suggested last week.

Here's Steve's summary:

Three charts this week for your viewing pleasure:

First, a chart on testing:


Only 286 new positives for Lehigh/NorCo this week, and the percentage of positives continues to decline. However, there were fewer new tests this week than either of the past two weeks. 114 of the new positives were in Lehigh County; 172 were in NorCo. The number of tests was almost exactly the same in each county this week: 1,898 in Lehigh and 1,907 in NorCo.

Here's how the 14-day case rate breaks down between Lehigh and NorCo:


As you can see, Lehigh County has shown a steady decline in daily new cases for the past two weeks while NorCo has shown much more modest declines.

Now, my fearless forecasts:


Because the new case rate in Lehigh has been declining rapidly, but the new case rate in NorCo has been declining much more slowly, my "Weighted" and "Unweighted" forecasts predict July 8 as the date Lehigh and NorCo (combined) would go "Yellow." If we look at Lehigh and NorCo separately; however, it's a different story. Lehigh, alone, is on pace to hit "Yellow" around June 20; NorCo, alone, is on a pace to hit "Yellow" sometime in early-to-mid August!

The governor's forecast; however, remains unchanged: June 5 for both Lehigh and NorCo.
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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 1, 2020 at 6:53 AM

    If NorCo is not to go yellow until August, why is Wolf opening things on Friday and where are his defenders demanding we stay closed until August to keep us safe? They seem rather quiet as revelations about his horrible crisis mismanagement come to light and make his deadly decisions harder to defend. Speak up, defenders. Demand we stay under house arrest until August. Stick to your guns and don't be the cowards your precious Wolf described. Who are the cowards now?

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJune 1, 2020 at 11:41 AM

    Big deal you need a symptom to be tested. Will keep everyone away from getting tested. Not the same for Gracedale or is it?

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  3. AnonymousJune 1, 2020 at 12:55 PM

    The way Northampton County’s testing site was explained in the media, all one needed to do was claim they had a headache! Those sites could have been called upon by many thousands of County residents. There is no doctor on Earth who can prove you do/do not have a headache.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousJune 1, 2020 at 9:42 PM

    All of you open-up-fasters should now insist on staying closed, in order to show that you won't be told what to do by the gubbermint.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousJune 1, 2020 at 10:43 PM

    If protesters can gather in mass, shoulder to shoulder and not wearing masks in some cases, why can't EVERYTHING open up?

    ReplyDelete

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