From Northampton County: Governor Tom Wolf issued a Stay-at-Home order for Northampton County which begins March 25, 2020 at 8:00 PM. To protect the public health and to mitigate the spread of Coronavirus or COVID-19, all residents are urged to stay in their homes and only go out for essential life sustaining services. The order will be in effect until April 6, 2020. It does not apply to businesses or projects that have received waivers.
All County offices remain open although certain facilities, such as the Courthouse, Gracedale and the Northampton County Prison, are closed to the public. The Courthouse is open for people who need emergency services such as Protection-from-Abuse orders and other court required actions.
Individuals may leave their residence only to perform any of the following allowable individual activities and allowable essential travel:
Tasks essential to maintain health and safety, or the health and safety of their family or household members (including pets), such as obtaining medicine or medical supplies, visiting a health care professional, or obtaining supplies they need to work from home
Getting necessary services or supplies for themselves, for their family or household members, or as part of volunteer efforts, or to deliver those services or supplies to others to maintain the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences
Engaging in outdoor activity, such as walking, hiking or running if they maintain social distancing
To perform work providing essential products and services at a life-sustaining business
To care for a family member or pet in another household
Any travel related to the provision of or access to the above-mentioned individual activities or life-sustaining business activities
Travel to care for elderly, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons
Travel to or from educational institutions for purposes of receiving materials for distance learning, for receiving meals, and any other related services
Travel to return to a place of residence from an outside jurisdiction
Travel required by law enforcement or court order
Travel required for non-residents to return to their place of residence outside the commonwealth
Anyone performing life-sustaining travel does not need paperwork to prove the reason for travel.
The following operations are exempt:
Life-sustaining business activities
Health care or medical services providers
Access to life-sustaining services for low-income residents, including food banks
Access to child care services for employees of life-sustaining businesses that remain open as follows: child care facilities operating under the Department of Human Services, Office of Child Development and Early Learning waiver process; group and family child care operating in a residence; and part-day school age programs operating under an exemption from the March 19, 2020 business closure Orders
News media
Law enforcement
The federal government
Religious institutions
Individuals experiencing homelessness are not subject to this order but are strongly urged to find shelter and government agencies are urged to take steps needed to provide shelter for those individuals.
International students, foster youth, and any other students who would otherwise experience displacement or homelessness as a result of campus closures are exempt and may remain in campus housing.
At this time, law enforcement will be focused on ensuring that residents are aware of the order and informing the public of social distancing practices rather than enforcement. To report a noncompliant business, contact your local law enforcement agency’s non-emergency number or the nearest Pennsylvania State Police station. Please do not call 911 or the Department of Community and Economic Development to file reports. Law enforcement officers should refer to Business Closure Order Enforcement Guidance available online.
Bethlehem Closes City Hall
From Bethlehem: Based on Governor Wolf’s “Stay at Home” order issued for Northampton and Lehigh Counties, Bethlehem City Hall will be closed to the public effective 4:30 pm today, Wednesday, March 25, 2020 until further notice.
City Hall will remain operational but closed to the public. City employees will be available to assist residents via phone and email. Until further notice, residents should access information and conduct business by using the City’s website (www.bethlehem-pa.gov).
Bethlehem residents concerned with businesses operating in violation of the shutdown, are requested to call the Bethlehem Service Center at 610-865-7000. Do not call 911 for this issue.
Please monitor the City’s website www.bethlehem-pa.gov and social media for additional information including closures of City facilities, postponement of public meetings and updates on COVID-19.
Allentown City Hall
Allentown Mayor Ray O’Connell closed City Hall to the public this afternoon after Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf issued a “Stay at Home” order for Lehigh and Northampton counties effective at 8:00 p.m.
The closings are in effect until April 6.
More than 800-persons have died in the United States from COVID-19, nearly 200 of them in New York City.
(Updated 5:37 pm)
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
Local Government TV
▼
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
140 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting fed up by the disinformation you post.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteMore disinformation, but do not post things you do not know are accurate.
ReplyDeleteI just hope people can maintain their “cool” if these restrictions are misinterpreted. There has already been civil disobedience in Europe. I expect a continued decline in our society. Why? People need to blame someone.
ReplyDeleteIf it helps, I don't blame you.
ReplyDelete2:05 -
ReplyDeleteGood one! But, it does help me. Thanks.
Guess I can't rake my leaves this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteGrow up.
Deletehttps://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/pa-teachers-to-be-paid-in-full-despite-school-closure.html
ReplyDeleteGood to know Wolf takes care of his union and govt workers first.... AND many schools, including BASD. No lessons is 2 weeks even though they have the equipment, not sure about next 2 weeks. Vacation time for public/govt/teachers/admin..... all on the taxpayers dime.
Should have been a teacher if you think this is a vacation!
Delete2:44 PM
ReplyDeleteBut now they can't conduct any car parades, so he's really punishing them just like the rest of us.
Can anyone explain to me what the latest "Oh my God we're all gonna die" pronouncement prevents me from doing after 8 o'clock tonight that I can't do now?
ReplyDeleteNo more curb-side pick-up?
As far as I can tell, the only thing I can't do that's new is get in my car and just take a ride for the hell of it. I have to pretend I'm going to the grocery store. Yeah, that's the ticket. I just happen to like a grocery store in the Poconos.
basketball ok as long we play zone, and no man2man?
ReplyDeleteYou needn't just sit at home. You can mail in tax payments.
ReplyDeleteI was told some municipalities are removing the hoops from parks to prevent kids from playing basketball. It's for their own good, they say.
ReplyDeleteI'm just grateful that we have a governor who cares for us.
ReplyDeleteHey, what happened to all the "We're united and pulling together" talk? is it possible that we're only supposed to unite behind Orange Julius?
ReplyDelete2:44 PM
ReplyDeleteCorporations, hotel industry, airlines are all getting 100s of Billions in bailout money after spending the last 3 years buying back their own stock with their tax savings they got from the new president to boost their earnings reports. But you are bitching about teachers salaries being paid as they teach remotely moving forward.
Got it.
Not going into the courthouse now are you BO?
ReplyDeleteNo. I'm going into the kitchen. Want anything?
ReplyDelete3:55 PM
ReplyDeleteNext time you're looking for a job, apply to a teacher.
Some day we'll look back on this.
ReplyDeleteToo soon.
ReplyDelete3:12 PM
ReplyDelete"As far as I can tell, the only thing I can't do that's new is get in my car and just take a ride for the hell of it. I have to pretend I'm going to the grocery store. Yeah, that's the ticket. I just happen to like a grocery store in the Poconos."
I hear you, loud and clear. But, just wait until Herr Wolf encourages, then urges, then orders people to snitch on their neighbors. Not far down the road.
Doc Rock said...
ReplyDelete3:12 PM
"As far as I can tell, the only thing I can't do that's new is get in my car and just take a ride for the hell of it. I have to pretend I'm going to the grocery store. Yeah, that's the ticket. I just happen to like a grocery store in the Poconos."
I hear you, loud and clear. But, just wait until Herr Wolf encourages, then urges, then orders people to snitch on their neighbors. Not far down the road.
March 25, 2020 at 4:44 PM
I'm just glad we have a governor who cares for us.
Bernie what's your take on democrats trying to put wording in that puts stimulus monies into there personal accounts?
ReplyDeleteAll I see is poor leadership in Northampton County. Do they even care about the employees?
ReplyDeleteNot as much as they governor, I'll tell you that.
ReplyDelete@3:54..... Oh yeah.... I got it.... Feds are structuring something for everyone, yet WOLF has to prioritize his bill so his UNION buds get covered right away.... Nothing else is immediately pressing for him, right? No other legislation the NEEDS looking into?...
ReplyDeleteWell how about SCHOOL TAX REFORM.... You know that bill? The one that stops school districts from maxing out their increases EVERY year, and gives the taxpayers a say.....
but of course, you don't like THAT bill............... Got it..............
A bigot?
ReplyDeleteIf I get stopped driving to the laundromat then I will show the cop a pair of my dirty underwear. Wasn't it Trump who led those rallies claiming that there was no danger from this virus and didn't the FOX news hosts repeat the claims that the virus threat was all a Democratic hoax? You Trump supporters are nothing but worthless pieces of shit. You helped to create this mess.
ReplyDeleteEver hear of the Trump Virus?
ReplyDeleteYeah, for some reason, it's what YOU call a virus that started in China.
ReplyDeleteYou seem to be the only one though.
If David Carradine still was alive, I bet he would, too.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah.... I got it.... Feds are structuring something for everyone
ReplyDeleteI don't know what you got, but it isn't brains.
BILLIONS to corporations, some that are sitting on billions in cash reserves (Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Hilton). You bitch about tax money being spent on teachers, but have no problem with it being spent by CEOs buying back their own stock to improve their earnings reports to drive stock prices up.
You must be a Libertarian.
6:33,
ReplyDeleteHilton only has millions not billions. They are in trouble because they bought back to much stock and didn't save enough. The bailout will help them immensely.
$25 billion for passenger airlines, $4 billion for cargo airlines, and $3 billion for industry contractors.
In addition, another $25 billion for passenger airlines and $4 billion for cargo airlines will be available in the form of loans or loan guarantees.
$454 billion given wide latitude to provide loans to businesses, states and municipalities.
No Banking?
ReplyDeleteIt's time.
I'm going for Ice Cream...haagen dazs!
ReplyDeleteMoosetrax
DeleteEvery suicide and every case of domestic abuse is now blood on the hands of Herr Wolf.
ReplyDeleteI will defy his enforced imprisonment on me whenever I damn well please.
This is America. Not Red China.
And don't sing the song of totalitarianism. I'm not listening.
I'm so conflicted.
ReplyDeleteOn the one hand I wish nobody sickness, on the other hand I hope the, "I'll do as I damn well please" assholes find themselves needing a respirator.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteI'm so conflicted.
On the one hand I wish nobody sickness, on the other hand I hope the, "I'll do as I damn well please" assholes find themselves needing a respirator.
So tell me, Mr. Know-it-All, how a drive in the country - when I have no contact with anyone else - will spread the Chinese virus?
I'm waiting. But not holding my breath.
One good thing about this mess. The NRA is slowly going down the dumper. Big-time money problems, laying off employees. The NRA and their jack-booted thug members had a large part In electing President Trump.
ReplyDeleteDoc Rock said...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
I'm so conflicted.
On the one hand I wish nobody sickness, on the other hand I hope the, "I'll do as I damn well please" assholes find themselves needing a respirator.
So tell me, Mr. Know-it-All, how a drive in the country - when I have no contact with anyone else - will spread the Chinese virus?
I'm waiting. But not holding my breath.
March 25, 2020 at 8:23 PM
You'll be texting on your phone to post here and run over a goat-herder.
9:20
ReplyDeleteI'm betting the state will go bankrupt first.
"Bernie what's your take on democrats trying to put wording in that puts stimulus monies into there personal accounts?"
ReplyDeleteYou are spewing nonsense and should learn how to spell.
"Good to know Wolf takes care of his union and govt workers first.... AND many schools, including BASD. No lessons is 2 weeks even though they have the equipment, not sure about next 2 weeks. Vacation time for public/govt/teachers/admin..... all on the taxpayers dime."
ReplyDeleteMarch 25, 2020 at 2:44 PM
The state workers are on no travel restrictions, their consultant counterparts are being forced to travel. They are visiting different facilities, in essence picking up and passing germs. That's wrong.
Is the text of the relief bill available anywhere? I can't find it and have emailed both senators' offices and Susan Wild. They say they want to read it before voting, which is why they're withholding aid to American citizens. I'd like to read it, as well, because something tells me they won't. Where's the bill?
ReplyDeleteJust think about POLITICIANS. Many in our Congress have now delayed relief to YOUR families for at least a WEEK LONGER while they fight over including their NON-ESSENTIAL, and selfish pork projects. Including responding first to the needs of the special interest puppeteers who control them.
ReplyDeleteIf we are going to throw items into this RELIEF BILL to help average, everyday citizens, Here’s an important one. No politician can serve more than ONE TERM.
Interesting read about UK's top doc. He's positive for the virus. He originally made apocalypse predictions of 500K deaths in the UK. He's rolled that back to 20K and says most of those people would have died from illness and old age by the end of the year, anyway. He says they have enough beds. Don't know whether to believe him, as he was ridiculously wrong in the first place. But it gives pause re: whether or not we're overreacting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
As for that extra $25 million thrown in there for The Kennedy Center . . .
ReplyDeleteI’m calling on the Kennedy Center to spend the new funds for Ventilators.
I’m calling on our BIG MOUTH Entertainment Personalities (HOLLYWOOD) to say “Don’t Worry, Mr. President , we’ll replace that amount with our OWN donations!
Also know, fellow citizens, our President DOES NOT have the power to strike-out any single item from this new Document. Further, now that Congress passed this UNANIMOUSLY, he can’t even VETO the whole thing. Any Veto would be easy to overrule in the Senate!
Thanks again, CONGRESS Person.
He credits the UK's lockdown, but it only started a couple of days ago. And this: estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
ReplyDeleteCorrect, 8:28. I’ll add, even if someone does get infected, the cure rate is nearing 90%. Other than the ability to catch this virus being greater than the seasonal flu, the mortality rate is pretty much the same,
ReplyDeleteEstimates of mortality rates inevitably make assumptions about such matters as the availability of ventilators or health care providers. At this point, those assumptions presumably fall into the rosy scenario.
ReplyDeleteThe democrats are nothing but losers look aT THEIR TRACK RECORD the last 20 years
ReplyDelete9:26 - I’m thinking the amount of ventilators ON HAND before all of this was based PRIMARILY on the normal need to cure Pneumonia. Maybe why the New York Mayor refused to purchase more ventilators right before this Administration took over.
ReplyDeleteNow, Ventilators and other things like Face Masks are being churned out in amazingly high numbers. Millions of additional units of such things are already delivered, with more on the way, arriving every day.
We have a DISTRIBUTION problem.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteCorrect, 8:28. I’ll add, even if someone does get infected, the cure rate is nearing 90%. Other than the ability to catch this virus being greater than the seasonal flu, the mortality rate is pretty much the same,
March 26, 2020 at 8:41 AM
This suggests a mortality rate of 10%. Given the infection rate, that's quite a death toll.
Your happy talk is patently unfounded, as I think we're about to find out the hard way.
Neil Ferguson thought that too. He's made a stunning turnabout, lowering his prediction from 500K deaths to 20K, and saying the UK has enough beds. And they only began shut downs two and half days ago. Flu to CoViD-19 comparisons are tricky. But the apocalyptic death and hospital predictions about CoViD-19 seem overdone, at this point. We'll find out for real in the next two weeks. I admit I don't know what to believe. I've been self-isolating as a lifestyle since 1987.
ReplyDelete9:46 - Neither one of us knows the correct answer.
ReplyDeleteDuring the OFFICIAL Press Conference yesterday, it was announced by the Dr. Fauci -types, we are running now about 3.5 % and dropping.
@6:33... Brains.... lol.
ReplyDeleteGot lots, which is why if you used yours, you would note that my comment was about the FED taking care of everyone, including the illustrious teachers, yet Wolf steps in and does his OWN thing for teachers (at full pay). Did he help restaurant workers out? Gas station attendants? Factory workers? NOPE.... Just his UNION backers.... while everyone else has to wait and go on unemployment at partial pay....
What a joke he is..... completely obvious who ranks in his book. Oh, and for your info...
PA teachers ranked 10th NATIONALLY in compensation.... yet kids performance ranking? 30th.
As a taxpayer, I am not happy about paying for a Ferrari, with yearly increasing payments, and getting Volkswagen results............... ciao
9:59 - I wouldn’t lay too much of this on the feet of classroom teachers. Although, the NEA, the union group of teachers, donates nearly all of it’s political ‘bribes’ in only ONE direction, despite about 30% of it’s teachers voting in a different direction.
ReplyDeleteYes, you would think they could find a different union group, but that’s been made 85% impossible by the current union group.
School tax by the state is forgotten again -the 30ty at least year in a row the state will never correct the unfair school tax law--they leave local school boards level taxes each year---the taxes go up up and up--they ate taxing the people right out of their houses and the local board do not care at all--they will not cut one thing from the budgets--it must be stopped
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete9:46 - Neither one of us knows the correct answer.
During the OFFICIAL Press Conference yesterday, it was announced by the Dr. Fauci -types, we are running now about 3.5 % and dropping.
March 26, 2020 at 9:54 AM
That's about 35 times the seasonal flu, yes? And with a much higher infection rate.
And we're getting lots of reports of health care workers becoming infected and hospitals running low, if not out, of ventilators.
Not good, not good at all.
8:41 and 9:43 andothers
ReplyDeleteI believe it’s important to talk in terms of % of cases requiring hospitalization and cure rate for those hospitalized.
This is preliminary and I’m sure changing quickly, but CDC estimated about 20-30% of confirmed cases were hospitalized and 10% of those died.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
Bear in mind that many additional people with symptoms weren’t tested and were told to self-quarantine. Conversely, deaths may continue to climb even after new cases start to drop. Short answer-nobody should be super confident with predictions at this point.
Perhaps the most important consideration is level of care available. Those numbers are harder to come by, and that’s where “flattening the curve” comes from. Under the best of circumstances, the media will find scary stories to report.
For perspective, Lombardy in Italy, the region hardest hit has a death rate of 0.05% of the population, and growth rate of new cases and deaths is falling fast. Yes, that’s 4500 people, but if we like to think of ourselves as being for the “greater good”, sometimes we need to look at numbers in perspective.
In anticipation of the comments by the morally superior, I AM NOT DISMISSING THE TRAGEDY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL’S DEATH AND SUFFERING!
Please read and re-read that before you accuse me of being a heartless bastard because I’m “only looking at cold hard numbers.”
So what's your point about "the greater good"?
ReplyDelete11:22, I don't get your point either. Yes, there's some uncertainty. I think we all got that long ago. Central to that is the inexplicable failure to have responded more urgently on the testing.
ReplyDeleteBut it's inexcusable that someone who needs hospitalization can't get a respirator, because that certainly lowers your chances. It's also inexcusable that health care workers must be unnecessarily exposed to the virus, which lowers both your chances and theirs.
11:26 - I’m not that poster, but MY take on what is the ‘greater good’ is that, unfortunately, it tends to vary according to one’s politics. NOT real math used in a funny way.
ReplyDeleteSome believe we are overreacting to the coronavirus. They may be right, but for the past several weeks, many epidemiologists across the globe have produced startling research about this disease. These are the men and women in university laboratories who will write the book on this disease. If you argue that we are overreacting, the world wants to see your epidemiological projections and cost estimates. If you don’t have any, follow Abraham Lincoln’s advice and remain silent.
ReplyDeleteNote: Mathematics of epidemiology are similar to mathematics of economics. Perhaps that why a very large share of economists have called for rapid, and expensive, intervention. Economists can see their work and put dollar figures to the epidemiological estimates. Without these aggressive actions, the costs of the most optimistic estimates of this disease in the U.S.A. exceed $5 trillion. Medical care costs will add perhaps another $2 trillion. Maybe, this is on the optimistic side.
11:26, obviously one's values enter into any consideration of what is good, etc. So who's using real math in a funny way?
ReplyDelete"So what's your point about "the greater good"?"
ReplyDeleteMaybe you should ask all those folks who insist it's OK to deny people their personal freedom and livelihoods in order to attain it.
Of course that would involve a deeper level of thought than "If only one life is saved..."
11:47, you are not being clear at all. Neither are you being attacked, only asked to clarify what you mean.
ReplyDelete11:45
ReplyDeleteSo why use math at all?
So you're anti-counting? It's one way that we make sense of the world.
ReplyDelete11:47 AM
ReplyDeleteSorry, I assumed "so what's your point" wasn't a friendly salutation. I often make that mistake.
But I used the term because people on this blog had used the term to justify shutting down the economy to address the crisis, without any thought to the eventual consequences.
But if you're uncomfortable using google...
"the greatest amount of good for the greatest number"
An easy example of using ‘funny math’ is when most of our news media chooses to over-emphasize NEGATIVITY in what numbers they focus on - without needed further explanation of what it means in context.
ReplyDeleteYou will notice how many news sites have decided to STOP allowing open comments after stories. They don’t want to be challenged.
Perfect example,
The Morning Call continues to promote ONLY the good about the POLITICIAN- DESIGNED Neighborhood Improvement Zone(NIZ). They choose not to tell you spending like that has now resulted in an ENORMOUS loss of what state tax revenues would have been without the NIZ ever being put into place. A couple hundred million deficit of what ‘would have been.’ That will worsen when the new facilities begin to require upgrades and renovations. Like, very soon!
counting and math make me think this is certainly serious, but not nearly as serious as dire predictions. numbers to this point don't nearly add up to 1.5 to 2 million us deaths - even over three cycles.
ReplyDelete11:47, I got the reference to utilitarianism. But that's very much in the eye of the beholder.
ReplyDeleteIn the context of coronavirus, I think there's rather a false choice being posited here. The question essentially is how much risk do we trade for how much economy, and that's got a lot to do with how we assess the risks.
12:04, your example doesn't match your principle: it's one of under-emphasizing negativity in favor of over-emphasizing positivity. But if NIZ works, then it's a net economic benefit to the community, such as through new jobs and he eventual payment of taxes.
ReplyDeleteYou seem to assume that without the NIZ, a particular business would have located here anyway.
Stuff like NIZ get used, I think, because the development people want to show that they're trying SOMETHING.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeletecounting and math make me think this is certainly serious, but not nearly as serious as dire predictions. numbers to this point don't nearly add up to 1.5 to 2 million us deaths - even over three cycles.
March 26, 2020 at 12:04 PM
So? What's the breaking point for you in terms of deaths, then?
Michael Struck, director of economic policy studies at the far-right American Enterprise Institute: “A warning to the president. Trying and failing to reopen the economy before economic activity is organically ready to resume could have dire economic consequences.”
ReplyDelete12:04
ReplyDeleteAgree. I too am puzzled by these projections. Even if the entire country gets as bad as Lombardy (currently at ~450 deaths per million and slowing), let's triple that to ~1500/million. That's about half a million for the US (note to Value Police: I did NOT say "only" half a million).
To get to 1-2 million deaths for the US, the rate would have to be about 2900-5700/million.
Italy itself is about 125/million and starting to level off. The next-to-worst country is Spain at about 80, but it's still rising quickly.
Never say never, but right now, those projections seems quite odd.
12:48 -
ReplyDeleteCorrect. People tried to do something, as they should. But, THIS something was not properly studied ahead of time. I will also add, the vast majority of business who located there were ALREADY in business in some other place in Pennsylvania! For example, nearly all waiters and other restaurant workers were already doing those same low-paying jobs in Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, and elsewhere,
The key to success is measured in NEW DOLLARS brought to state coffers. In that regard, the NIZ is a huge loser.
"The question essentially is how much risk do we trade for how much economy, and that's got a lot to do with how we assess the risks."
ReplyDeleteA good starting point is to use math to get an idea of how big the problem is and how bad it's likely to get. Realistic numbers. Some here seem to think numbers are evil.
You can't assess risks without at least trying to be quantitative.
An economist would ask: what was the benefit from the new businesses and how does that compare to the cost of the lost taxes?
ReplyDeleteI agree that both figures are relevant. Do you know?
1:07 - I can only know what I believe to be true. You believe something else. If the goal was to increase revenue to everyone who actually pays for this, then the NIZ plan has failed so far, and will take many more years to break even.
ReplyDeleteNow, I’ll no longer discus my view of this, as it’s not really relevant to the health crisis we are dealing with. It brought it up to illustrate a way ‘numbers’ can be managed in a preferred way. I’ll stop now. Thank you for asking for clarity.
Imagine if we'd had an eight week headstart on this. When Trump was initially briefed, he blew it off and asked about flavored vaping legislation. In his defense, he and all world leaders were listening to the WHO parroting lies about no human-to-human and no big deal. He still lost 10 valuable days before stopping flights from China, a move he was lambasted for at the time. China's lies for seven weeks and Trump's travel ban delay cost eight valuable weeks.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete"The question essentially is how much risk do we trade for how much economy, and that's got a lot to do with how we assess the risks."
A good starting point is to use math to get an idea of how big the problem is and how bad it's likely to get. Realistic numbers. Some here seem to think numbers are evil.
You can't assess risks without at least trying to be quantitative.
March 26, 2020 at 1:05 PM
I agree with your last sentence. My hunch is that you are not a fan of the governor's current order, and I should tell you that I am.
I believe that the COVID-19 problem probably is going to be with us until there's a vaccine, and we aren't going to continue with the current partial shutdown for a year or more. So, understanding our shot at "maximum" containment to be limited, should the governor have acted when he did?
This is where I'm so angry with Trump due to his failure to handle the testing issue. The governor simply didn't have the data necessary to make a more reliable decision, so I think he was right to act relatively early as he did.
As to when it's best to lift the order, it remains to be seen whether Trump will yet have resolved the testing problem to the extent that a reliable decision can be made. Easter seems awfully optimistic to me at this point, and I don't think that Trump has a clue about the numbers and what they mean.
At the moment, I continue to prefer to err on the side of public health.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete1:07 - I can only know what I believe to be true. You believe something else. If the goal was to increase revenue to everyone who actually pays for this, then the NIZ plan has failed so far, and will take many more years to break even.
Now, I’ll no longer discus my view of this, as it’s not really relevant to the health crisis we are dealing with. It brought it up to illustrate a way ‘numbers’ can be managed in a preferred way. I’ll stop now. Thank you for asking for clarity.
March 26, 2020 at 1:19 PM
You suggest that I have a particular position on this issue, but I don't. I'm just telling you how I think it should be analyzed. Your math is extremely vague, so I certainly haven't been convinced by anything you've said here.
And of course numbers can be manipulated. Who disputes THAT? But you haven't shown that you know how to recognize when it's happening. Better luck next time.
1:23 - Not quite true. On January 14, the WHO told the world there is no evidence of person-to-person transfer. Plus, the infection had not yet reached our shores. About 10 days later, he formed a response team. Two days more, he banned all flights to/from China. I think it’s more reasonable to say he acted very quickly. He didn’t cost our response for 8 weeks.
ReplyDeleteNow, just think if building a SECURE Border structure would have been permitted by Congress much sooner!
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteImagine if we'd had an eight week headstart on this. When Trump was initially briefed, he blew it off and asked about flavored vaping legislation. In his defense, he and all world leaders were listening to the WHO parroting lies about no human-to-human and no big deal. He still lost 10 valuable days before stopping flights from China, a move he was lambasted for at the time. China's lies for seven weeks and Trump's travel ban delay cost eight valuable weeks.
March 26, 2020 at 1:23 PM
Absolutely, including giving some credit to Trump for the China travel ban.
However, he needed to lead by doing more, including awakening us better to the problem rather than downplaying it. And he's still doing it.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete1:23 - Not quite true. On January 14, the WHO told the world there is no evidence of person-to-person transfer. Plus, the infection had not yet reached our shores. About 10 days later, he formed a response team. Two days more, he banned all flights to/from China. I think it’s more reasonable to say he acted very quickly. He didn’t cost our response for 8 weeks.
Now, just think if building a SECURE Border structure would have been permitted by Congress much sooner!
March 26, 2020 at 1:42 PM
Why don't we have the testing results we were promised long ago?
1:36 - the health and other government officials claim our standing amount of health tests was allowed to decline. They were also producing 40% false negatives. Fixing that, and getting it all out there, has taken much longer than many want to accept.
ReplyDeleteI can't address your factual contentions at this pint, but let's assume for the moment that what you say is true: explain why S. Korea did so much better with testing.
ReplyDeleteTo follow-up, 1:47, not only were the existing amounts in short supply for something like this, they required 4 days to be given, sent for analysis, and return results. NOW, we have new tests that can give results far more quickly. Why? Trump cut through a big chunk of standing government REGULATIONS that made everything move too slowly.
ReplyDeleteThe President is handling this all fine, at least according to his RISING public approval ratings being reported. But, who really knows? Polls are easy to fix.
"I think it’s more reasonable to say he acted very quickly. He didn’t cost our response for 8 weeks."
ReplyDeleteThat wasn't what was posted. China owns seven weeks of the delay. Trump own 10 days. In his defense, he and all world leaders were operating on false information from China and the WHO. And he was killed for stopping flights when he did. His only mistake was to not stop them immediately.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteTo follow-up, 1:47, not only were the existing amounts in short supply for something like this, they required 4 days to be given, sent for analysis, and return results. NOW, we have new tests that can give results far more quickly. Why? Trump cut through a big chunk of standing government REGULATIONS that made everything move too slowly.
The President is handling this all fine, at least according to his RISING public approval ratings being reported. But, who really knows? Polls are easy to fix.
March 26, 2020 at 1:58 PM
Hospitals don't have what they need, so clearly Trump failed to get it done. That he was downplaying the problem all the while only indicates that it was intentional.
And those polls naturally will rise a bit in a time of crisis. Wait until the crisis is reflected by caskets, and they'll go the other way. Then what will you say?
1:54 - I can only assume South Korea did NOT allow its stock of relevant test kits to decline to a dangerous amount. They must have anticipated an ENORMOUS health threat could easily happen, like a Bio-Weapon being released by its adjacent neighbor, North Korea.
ReplyDeleteI've read S Korea has only tested .006 or six tenths of one percent. That's a remarkably small sample to get credit for their good results. Also, if the UK doctor's new numbers are to be believed, that's still 80K to 100K dead in the US - by pencil whipping their population being 1/5 of the US. That's a big number compared to 20+K flu deaths per season.
ReplyDelete2:04 - then I would say, it has ALWAYS been the responsibility of each state Governor to keep his/her state prepared. The New York Mayor has been shown to have blown one chance for more crisis response response materials.
ReplyDeleteI prefer a situation like this can better be handled by an internationally known businessman, and not a typical politician. I remain positive about the way this is being handled.
1:36 PM
ReplyDelete"I believe that the COVID-19 problem probably is going to be with us until there's a vaccine, and we aren't going to continue with the current partial shutdown for a year or more. So, understanding our shot at "maximum" containment to be limited, should the governor have acted when he did?"
I agree that "getting to zero" isn't going to happen until either there's a vaccine or an adequate "herd immunity" is built up. Ironically, delaying the build-up of herd immunity may actually lead to more deaths. I don't know that, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
But I'm not arguing that Wolf shouldn't have done something. There should be room to question the extent to which he acted.
Shutting down road construction? A 5 -10 man work crew can lead to the end of humanity?
Shutting down liquor stores that seldom have more than 10 people in them, leading to hundreds of people pouring into them at one time? Now they're floating a "soft reopening" of the liquor stores. What kind of crowds is that going to create?
As has been mentioned before, banning driving unless you're on a "life-sustaining" mission? So the only way to take a drive legally is to stop and go into a store where there are other people?
I agree with about 80% of what Wolf did. I ought to be able to question the part I disagree with without being accused of wanting people to die.
2:04 - I can’t believe ANY President would intentionally do harm to the Americans who voted for him/her. Unless, of course, they are found to have been somewhat Anti-America in their decision-making.
ReplyDeleteOf course you an argue against the 20% that you dislike, just as you could argue about the 80% if that's what you thought. If you're clear about the 80% that you like, I think you'll get less flack about the 20%. But I wasn't around.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete2:04 - then I would say, it has ALWAYS been the responsibility of each state Governor to keep his/her state prepared. The New York Mayor has been shown to have blown one chance for more crisis response response materials.
I prefer a situation like this can better be handled by an internationally known businessman, and not a typical politician. I remain positive about the way this is being handled.
March 26, 2020 at 2:13 PM
It's POTUS who gets the information and has access to the experts that we employ. He was told and he didn't care.
The most flack I've gotten is from people who insist "lock down until zero" is the only answer.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete2:04 - I can’t believe ANY President would intentionally do harm to the Americans who voted for him/her. Unless, of course, they are found to have been somewhat Anti-America in their decision-making.
March 26, 2020 at 2:21 PM
I'm tired of trying to decide whether he's stupid or evil, And it doesn't really matter, because the effect is the same.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteThe most flack I've gotten is from people who insist "lock down until zero" is the only answer.
March 26, 2020 at 2:31 PM
They need to learn about "opportunity costs". And we all need to be careful to acknowledge the importance of human life compared to money, which I think is what people who are concerned about lifting restrictions prematurely really need to hear.
2:30 - no man can manage 50 states individually, and know everything that goes on there. At this point, I am sure NO ONE knows exactly what to do about California. It’s been driven down that far, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteEach state also has its own brilliant experts on EVERY topic. They each can call in their own experts who also are residents of that state. No doubt, many are doing just that. Some states, maybe not. Who knows?
What I do know is, Communist nations, like North Korea, only listen to ONE person.
The states certainly have an important role to play, but only the president can lead in ways. Trump can't talk about being a "wartime president" but then pass the buck.
ReplyDeleteWhat an epitaph: "Here lies Donald J. Trump, whose motto was 'The epidemic was not MY responsibility.'"
3:05 - I believe you are trying too hard. But, that’s OK, you’re far from alone here. Insert Smiley Face image here.
ReplyDeleteAnd to add: governors don't get reports from the intelligence community. Trump does, but he didn't care.
ReplyDeletenonymous said...
ReplyDelete3:05 - I believe you are trying too hard. But, that’s OK, you’re far from alone here. Insert Smiley Face image here.
March 26, 2020 at 3:08 PM
Well, let's give him a chance to have a real discussion, shall we? If nothing else, there are lurkers who may catch on to what's happening.
3:14 -
ReplyDeleteI fully agree! That’s why I have posted here more this day than any other day in years.
2:33 PM
ReplyDeleteFrom my limited experience, I doubt that most people accept the concept of risk/benefit analysis when it comes to human life (or at all for that matter). It is unpleasant subject, but one governments have to wrestle with all the time.
Here is an attempt to explain it from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life
Scrolling to the near the bottom, US government agencies seem to have settled on a “value” of around $10M/person in round evil numbers.
Hard to say what the cost of the shutdown is at this point, but Germany estimates their cost at 7-20% of GDP, which sounds low to me.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-counts-costs-of-economic-shutdown/a-52890813
Pennsylvania’s GDP is around $800B. Maybe a fairly quick end to the lockdown might limit the hit to 10% for the entire year, but I’m skeptical. Let’s use that anyway.
So the shutdown costs $80B, at $10M/life, that’s 8,000 lives. Will his actions cost only $80B. (Note that jobless claims in PA jumped by 500K today. At $40K/job, that’s $20B/year right there. Don't forget wages have a multiplier effect on the economy.) Will his actions save 8,000 lives? How many lives would 80% of his actions save? Are these all evil questions?
A mind fills more quickly when OPEN.
ReplyDeleteOur state's top mental health official is a man so disturbed he cut off his privates. Think about that.
ReplyDeleteOH, MY !
ReplyDeleteGive the latest post on ProPublica a read.
3.23
ReplyDelete" Will his actions save 8,000 lives? How many lives would 80% of his actions save? Are these all evil questions?|
The US spent upwards of 6 trillion dollars over the World Trade center attacks.
So ignoring those deaths would have avoided all the combat deaths along with saving trillions of dollars.
Would it be evil to do that?
Would it be a responsible act?
Was spending those trillions worthwhile?
Why would fighting a virus be so different?
the enemy is a virus and the US is at war.
If we did a proper survey, I think we'd find a very high correlation between one's position on Trump and on how to approach the pandemic. The real question is whether we'd change our position on the public health and economic issues if we had a different president. Personally, I don't think I would.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteOur state's top mental health official is a man so disturbed he cut off his privates. Think about that.
March 26, 2020 at 3:47 PM
You already seem to be doing enough of that for all of us.
5:39 -
ReplyDeleteFor several days, I’ve been waiting for an answer (with reasonable proof) what any other President would have done differently to have gotten us to this point of response any quicker.
It’s easy to blurt out stuff. That’s not very helpful, though.
"Was spending those trillions worthwhile?"
ReplyDeleteYou tell me. I'm guessing I know your answer, so you want to use that as justification?
Anyway, assuming your $6 trillion is accurate (I'm guessing you threw a few Pelosi/Schumer kitchen sinks in there, but I'll give you the benefit of a doubt), that's about $320 billion a year for the whole country.
The US government has already allocated 2 trillion dollars and who knows how much the individual states are going to spend.
Don't forget all the money we have to spend on The War on Climate Change, The War on Opioids, The War on Hurt Feelings, and we're still working on the War on Poverty.
The “War on Hurt Feelings”
ReplyDeleteHA! Best name-calling of today!
Way too much personal name-calling on Message Boards.
6.00
ReplyDeleteSounds like you have no problem spending 6 trillion over approx 3 thousand deaths as this was no big deal--yet spending less to save more lives is verboten.
Did those deaths merit the cost?
The costs have just started. You haven't told me whether you thought the 6 trillion was worth it. And that was spent to prevent deaths, not on the 3000. I could just play the game and say the 6 trillion saved "thousands and thousands" of lives, and how could you argue?
ReplyDeleteActually, getting the economy going again will save lives as well. Probably just as many or more. There are arguments on both sides.
ReplyDelete6.40
ReplyDelete"And that was spent to prevent deaths, not on the 3000."
sounds just like what the government is doing right now.
And at a lesser cost.
"For several days, I’ve been waiting for an answer (with reasonable proof) what any other President would have done differently to have gotten us to this point of response any quicker."
ReplyDeleteAny other President would have been honest. Trump was not. It is one of his many failings as a President and as a man. I believe his more recent actions have been much better. But I believe this crisis is not his doing. We have known for years that we would eventually get hit by a pandemic and were poorly prepared. This is on all of us, not just Trump. You could go back a few decades.
6.42
ReplyDelete"getting the economy going again will save lives as well."
How does getting the economy going save lives?
thousands of people are going to die by staying home?
i have not seen that argument explained.
I'm not interested in playing the blame at the moment. Plenty of time for that later. And plenty of blame to go around everywhere. Bill Gates has an excellent TED talk, at least five years old, warning this would happen.
ReplyDelete6.43 PM
ReplyDelete"And that was spent to prevent deaths, not on the 3000."
sounds just like what the government is doing right now.
And at a lesser cost."
OK, although you don't seem to have the guts to say it outright, seems like you are of the opinion that the 6 trillion cost to respond to 9/11 was worth it.
Rather than keep playing games, give me your citation for that cost. How much was for homeland security and how much was for two foreign wars? How much was for infrastructure damage done by the attack itself?
If that's your model, tell us the cost breakdown and how much of it was actually successfully used to prevent a future attack. If you think the two foreign wars did that, stand up and say so, don't throw it back on me or somebody else.
Seems you've already concluded this will be cheaper, even though we've just started the spending.
Official story is that Jeffery Epstein killed himself.
ReplyDeleteNow these same official's want me to believe this shit.
6.43
ReplyDeleteSo you agree spending money to save lives is the correct thing to do.
So why is spending now not correct?
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete5:39 -
For several days, I’ve been waiting for an answer (with reasonable proof) what any other President would have done differently to have gotten us to this point of response any quicker.
It’s easy to blurt out stuff. That’s not very helpful, though.
March 26, 2020 at 5:47 PM
OK, I'll play: I think any president other than Trump, when told by, among others, the intelligence agencies that we were potentially facing a serious epidemic, would've wanted to know more ASAP rather than ignore it.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteThe “War on Hurt Feelings”
HA! Best name-calling of today!
Way too much personal name-calling on Message Boards.
March 26, 2020 at 6:10 PM
Asshole!
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete6.42
"getting the economy going again will save lives as well."
How does getting the economy going save lives?
thousands of people are going to die by staying home?
i have not seen that argument explained.
March 26, 2020 at 6:47 PM
Listen, I'm a supporter, generally, of Gov. Wolf's order, so I'm not from the "Open it up now or even soon" group. Nonetheless, I think that a poor economy does cost SOME lives. If people can't afford nutritious food or their medicine, for example, then they're more susceptible to other medical problems (including COVID-19).
However, the real issue is the tension that can exist between these two objectives. I am concerned that relaxing our preventive measures now only will lead to a real disaster in health care. We should not relax the physical distancing measures until we can see real progress on the virus. I sure haven't seen anyone who can compare the lives lost of those two approaches and convince me that Trump is right, or anywhere close to it.
Luckily, just as Trump didn't shut down places like PA, he can't open them up either. He's sure not some who I would follow over a hill.
You know, 8:29 -
ReplyDeleteYa shoulda just knocked instead of shouting who’s at the door !
8.38
ReplyDeletethose people staying home will most likely not require
https://jalopnik.com/new-york-requests-85-refrigerated-trucks-to-house-the-c-1842508577?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref
"the state has requested 85 refrigerated trailers from FEMA to house the anticipated number of bodies as a result of COVID-19.
New York City has additionally purchased 45 refrigerated truck trailers on its own, Bloomberg says, with each one being able to hold 44 bodies, respectively"
Keeping those empty is the goal if possible
Today’s official press conference hints actual deaths attributed to this will be far less in number than anticipated. Study by Stanford University in California confirms the same. That is, could be no greater mortality rate than a hard, regular season flu.
ReplyDelete"6.43
ReplyDeleteSo you agree spending money to save lives is the correct thing to do.
So why is spending now not correct?
March 26, 2020 at 8:04 PM"
6:43 does indeed say that. Who are you disagreeing with?