At the New Hampshire debate on Friday night, presidential candidate Bernie Sanders boasted he would win because he'd drive turnout, especially among young voters. I wondered about that prediction because the turnout in Iowa was just 170,000, well below the 240,000 who voted in 2016. Turnout in New Hampshire may very well be anemic, too.
Amazingly, few news sources are reporting on turnout as I write this, but NPR radio is describing turnout as flat. It reports young and new voter turnout is down as well. Apparently, they don't feel the burn.
If they want to defeat Trump, Democrats should be coming out of the woodwork. The reality is that the field is amazingly weak.
New Hampshire's Sec'y of State had predicted turnout would be 420,000, including 292,000 voters on the Dem side and 128,000 Republicans. In 2016, there was a record turnout of 542,000 votes.
According to an ABC report, turnout last night was at 283,000, presumably just in the Dem primary. The story claims this turnout surpasses the 2016 figures. ABC should re-check its math, Last time I checked, 283,000 is less than 290,000. An NPR story reports a 279,000 turnout and makes the same inaccurate claim.
Turnout is actually below 2016 levels.
Blogger's Note: Originally posted 12:00 am.
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
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Wednesday, February 12, 2020
51 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
Trump had 50,000 requests to attend his rally. Dems had an anemic turnout for a highly competitive primary. No juice. Just dry toast. Biden cut and run like a coward. Didn't even have the integrity to thank his supporters at the watch party. He is a dead man walking. The Hunter controversy has been toxic. Warren is finished too. Couldn't even get 10% of the vote in her neighboring state! The race is narrowing to Socialist Bernie, Mayor Pete, Amy Two-Face and the robotic billionaire Tiny Mike. Pathetic choices from the impeachment party.
ReplyDeleteThe worry for Dems is less about Trump and more about what they want to be. The Party is in a constant state of flux and must prioritize their priorities. Sadly today many dems want a candidate who is a carbon copy of everything they as an individual want.
ReplyDeleteThe Dems lead the country on issues like Healthcare and education. Rather than a;so focus on economics and wealth disparity, dmes are about who screams the loudest and claims victim hood the most.
You want to beat Trump and be taken seriously as a leadership Party?? Get your shit together.
I believe that most democrats and others will vote for anybody but Trump, and are dedicated to defeating him. Come November they will be there, regardless of who the candidate is.
ReplyDeleteYou're wrong about turnout in NH. 270,000 according to NPR this morning.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrat choices are much too radical and unappealing to productive citizens. Even Bloomberg has serious issues that will work against him. First, he’s too boring, next he’s a multi-billionaire who wants to buy his election (Democrats hate that type of person). But, most importantly, two VERY racist videos are out there from his time as New York Mayor. Ugly stuff.
ReplyDeleteBiggest reason Democrats are so much in trouble? Not enough people are unhappy with Trump’s accomplishments here, and around the world. Particularly, his positive effect on employment, wages, and their savings accounts. Rocking THIS boat is for fools only.
TRump will win by a landslide we will take back the house-Pelosi will see to that -the senate will be ours----the left wing radical dems have destroyed the democratic party and that is a fact--Bernie you are a part of the losers
ReplyDeleteOther than Trump's image of being offensive, the conditions in the country are better and most people are optimistic about the future. Other than free stuff, the Democratic candidates have no policies that offer optimism.
ReplyDeleteA heck of a lot can happen in the upcoming weeks and months, and PA's late primary may actually matter this year. However, just like I knew a number of Republicans in '16 who held their nose to vote for Trump over Clinton, thinking (mistakenly) that the Republicans in Congress would temper and check Trump, if Sanders is the nominee I think McConnell and the Republicans hold on to the Senate as centrist Democrats, independents and disaffected former Republicans split their ticket (something that has become near non-existent) to vote Anybody-but-Trump but rejecting the far left of Sanders. As much as I like the grounded positions of Klobuchar, and like the calm intellectual demeanor of Buttigieg, I don't know if K has the force of personality, nor B the experience, to go up against what will no doubt be a brutal campaign. I know colleagues who bristle at someone "buying the election," but if he can get past stop-and-frisk I think Bloomberg in personality, resources, and experience is the strongest to go up against Trump. As to fears of wealth/oligarchs and other class warfare javelins, I say it is best to fight fire with fire on that issue.
ReplyDeleteRepublican voters NEED to turnout in large numbers to defeat the Democrats. Do not take it for granted and just stay home.
ReplyDeleteThe only time young voters showed up and over-delivered were evangelicals for Bush the younger in 2004. That was the exception that proves the rule. From deficit spending, to depletion of SSI, to the cost shifts of ACA, reliable older voters have their way with younger voters on issues that are leaving a huge tab for the no shows.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg 2020...a real businessman and billionaire willing to put his money up against the freak reality tv fraud
ReplyDeleteMM is partially right. The tribes will certainly lock in by November. But the general campaign will be a battle for a small bunch (<10%?) of independents and undecideds. Polls indicate he made big gains with these voters in swing states during impeachment. Gallup gave him a 10-point pick up in several key states. The degree to which impeachment was a gift to Trump cannot be overstated. Democrats' three-year campaign of calling these voters racist retarded homophobic nazis has certainly been curious. I guess it could work.
ReplyDeleteOpen primary state. Trump's vote totals were higher than any incumbent president in the last 40 years.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg is a lovable authoritarian:
ReplyDeletestop and frisk (because we know who the trouble makers are)
soda and salt restrictions (because we know what's good for you)
$50 million campaign to stay in office past the two-term limit (because authoritarians do what they do)
gun confiscation (because only his security should have guns)
Go ahead Dems, do it to Bernie Sanders again. He already has more popular votes and is tied with or losing to Buttegieg in the delegate count.
Never forget, if Trump loses the next election everyone with investments will see a significant drop in value. How much? Maybe 25 % taken off from the present value of savings accounts, IRAs, 401k and other type pensions. They will also see higher taxes cutting out even more net
ReplyDeletefamily worth.
Some of those losses MIGHT slowly recover, but it could take years to catch back up. The loss of compounded interest on your present nest egg will take decades to return to where you would have been. PRODUCTIVE citizens will know this.
Not sure what article you are citing, but this ABC article states it is close to the 2008 primary, which was record setting for New Hampshire.
ReplyDeletehttps://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hampshire-democratic-primary-turnout-2008-levels/story?id=68930015
This NPR article also cites near-record turn out, attributing it for Mr. Sander's win.
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/12/804940104/6-takeaways-from-the-new-hampshire-primary
You want to beat Trump and be taken seriously as a leadership Party?? Get your shit together.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who follows the history of past presidential elections it's always been chaotic. Take a look at all the past DNC conventions. Very few have been neatly organized or without controversy. It's been the pattern because most members have a wide span of ideologies. Seldom do party followers march in lock step yet somehow manage to remain viable. I don't see why in this round we could expect anything different. How that works out we shall see.
The democratic socialist are really communist--A vote for them is an anti America vote--the dems were worried about Russia--they should really be worried about Bernie and his communist. The impeachment dems have destroyed their own party--good job Pelosi. If the republicans get their act together--and I do not mean PRESIDENT TRUMP--they can rule for the next 100 years.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what article you are citing, but this ABC article states it is close to the 2008 primary, which was record setting for New Hampshire.
ReplyDeletehttps://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hampshire-democratic-primary-turnout-2008-levels/story?id=68930015
This NPR article also cites near-record turn out, attributing it for Mr. Sander's win.
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/12/804940104/6-takeaways-from-the-new-hampshire-primary"
I was citing no article as I was unable to find anything re turnout last night, which in itself was disturbing and shitty journalism. But I was listening to NPR radio, and turnout was trashed. I am going to check your stories and look again. Thanks.
The economy is good, people are working and despite what the media tells you, there is wage growth at all levels, especially the lower economic levels.
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the day, a lot of people vote based on their pocket and sander's advocating higher taxes to fund greater governmental programs is just not appealing.
To those who think turnout was great and provided links, I checked again this morning. It is actually below what it was in 2016. I am having trouble understanding why it is being reported differently by major news sources. Perhaps I am missing something.
ReplyDelete"With 97% reporting as of 6:25 a.m. ET, the current New Hampshire vote tally stood at 283,440, which already surpassing the 250,000 people who voted in the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic primary." - ABC News article https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hampshire-democratic-primary-turnout-2008-levels/story?id=68930015
ReplyDeleteThe Wikipedia page for the 2016 Dem Primary, which sites the New Hampshire Secrtary of state, puts the total vote count at 253,062.
288,000 voted in the dem primary in 2008, which set their record.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary
ReplyDeleteCandidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 15 9
Popular vote 152,193 95,355
Percentage 60.14% 37.68%
"I believe that most democrats and others will vote for anybody but Trump, and are dedicated to defeating him. "
ReplyDeleteI believe the Dem field is incredibly weak, but will vote for any one of them over Trump.
I'm no Sanders fan, especially with his call for free college education BUT if he is the choice of Democrats when the dust settles, he'll get my vote. The fascist must be removed from the Oval Office. I'll grudgingly pay higher taxes to keep America a democracy.
ReplyDeleteIdiot: America is not a democracy; it is a constitutional republic. There is a difference, and our founders knew it.
DeleteOvem, I understand and share your admiration for Bloomberg, but personality? Lol, that's hardly his strong suit.
ReplyDeleteI love Joe Biden, but my fears about him appear to be correct. He is not up to being President, and I actually think he doesn't want it.
People wonder why Buttegieg is unpopular among blacks. It has NOTHING to do with his stint as Mayor. It's bc he's gay. Black people tend to be liberal, EXCEPT when it comes to social issues. They are not ready to see two guys openly kissing each other. Many white and Latino voters, who are trying their best to be tolerant, are also revolted by that image.
Bernie Sanders claims to be energizing young and first-time voters. While he has a strong core of true believers, it appears to me to be shrinking. And most of America is ardently opposed to his views.
Elizabeth Warren has less support than Bernie and is fading away.
Gabbard is smart and articulate, but her foreign policy views repel me.
Amy Klobuchar is the best of the bunch. I thought she was condescending in the first debate, but I really have grown to like her. I believe she could sink the SSTrump, but she has insufficient money and organization.
If Dems want to take out Trump, a Bloomberg-Klobuchar team is the best way to do it.
Bloomberg 2020....More money than Trumpy and no fear of retribution..he will clean the mess up
ReplyDeleteHaha- you must be joking.
DeleteTrump will be making America even better for one more term. The Democrats have no chance of winning the election after that debacle of an impeachment issue. Sleepy Biden bailing on the New Hampshire primary, Crazy Sanders with his socialist agenda, Pocahontas Warren almost a carbon copy of Crazy Bernie and on and on ……… Republican all the way.
ReplyDeleteAmerica will soon be a Socialist nation. With all the forced wealth transfer, high taxes, and oppressive government control that comes with Socialism. Why? We are about to cross that line when most people living here will NOT be paying any Federal Tax.
ReplyDeleteCan we, at least, elect Trump for another term to delay the inevitable Venezuela-like situation coming for the current generation of young adults?
7:18
ReplyDeleteTwo farmers are sitting on a porch watching the rain. One farmer says, "Do you think it will ever stop?" the other says, "Well, It can't rain forever"
Moral of the story - The market will fluctuate, as it has over the course of history. Saying that it WILL crash if Trump is voted out is the type of fearmongering we are all getting so used to. Its an oversimplification of the mechanics of our markets and for that matter, the global markets. It's just not that simple and Ovem Lupo is correct. Plenty of time for things to happen in the next few months.
Sorry, 11:49, I’ll stand by my prediction. The generation of investors who have built-up their nest eggs can be expected to panic and exit quickly. We see that every time the market drops 2% now. Expect a much bigger drop should Trump be defeated and the prospect of gaining it back under the current Democrat vision is seen to be unlikely.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the market does fluctuate. But, these nest eggs have grown substantially now because of Trump’s financial savvy, domestic and foreign. Take that away and watch what happens.
MM 3:48 said:
ReplyDelete"I believe that most democrats and others will vote for anybody but Trump, and are dedicated to defeating him. Come November they will be there, regardless of who the candidate is."
I agree that the hard-core Left/Progressives will vote for anybody but Trump, provided that Bernie Sanders is the candidate. That will change if the Democrat establishment steals the primary from Bernie again. The Left would much rather have a clean shot with no incumbent in 2024, than to have to wait an ADDITIONAL four years till 2028 (since they'd have to support the democrat establishment incumbent in 2024 if an establishment democrat wins in 2020).
More problematic is the large number of blue-collar union members who have seen Trump fighting for them while their own party supports open borders (which takes their jobs away). Many are quite honestly appalled by the turn towards socialism by ALL the Democrat candidates. These are hard-working Americans, not communists energized by hearing "workers of the world unite".
Similarly, a growing number of African Americans are waking up to the fact that the democrat party might care about them, but only at election time. They're seeing real improvements in jobs and in their communities as a result of Trump's policies.
Many in both groups (union members and African Americans) are realizing that despite their rhetoric, democrats are more in line with billionaires than representing the little guy. And they're also waking up to the fact that because of Democrat/Socialist policies, the democrat-controlled areas of the country aren't the utopias that the democrats had promised. They're the ones already living the Socialist experiment in America, and it isn't good. Who in their right mind would want to institute that at the national level?
So while the hard core Trump haters might unite in November, a good number of those two groups (among others) will break his way.
Those who voted for Trump knew what he was....no excuses. Regarding Bloomberg, not sure that if he is the nominee that progressives will work hard to get him in. They will see a billionaire as part of the problem, not the solution. Of course they will vote for him reluctantly bc the constitution shreader that currently sits in the White House is anathema to most thinking people.
ReplyDeleteAnon 10:52 said:
ReplyDeleteI'm no Sanders fan...(but) if he is the choice of Democrats when the dust settles, he'll get my vote. I'll grudgingly pay higher taxes to keep America a democracy.
America is a constitutional republic, not a democracy.
But vote for ANY of the Socialists/Democrats, and you'll be left with neither.
America will soon be a Socialist nation
ReplyDeleteYou're overreacting. You should be in greater fear of a president (Trump) who feels he is above the law. Who is in the process of ignoring half of the country's wishes who didn't vote for him trying to silence them any way he can. Someone who just makes stuff up contrary to 100% provable facts that speak otherwise. His unhinged tweets are increasing. This leads me to believe he will only become more chaotic. Are you sure this shouldn't be your greater fear?
BTW: I follow Trump's White House schedule. Trump used to start his work day with 11:30 AM briefings now it's late in the afternoons which last only minutes. (None are scheduled for today).Nearly every weekend he has nothing on his schedule. Tonight he'll be down the street at his hotel again for another fundraiser which will bring in some more loot for his business. Not just the campaign. He plans to spend more time there then meeting with the president of Ecuador this afternoon.
Bernie, first off I'd like the new look as was mentioned before in another article. As for reporting differently than facts, it's simple fake news.
ReplyDeleteLVCI- if Trump was the tyrant/dictator you claim he would never have allowed all the scam attempts to remove him. He would have shut down all of the media opposition. Trump has done a fantastic job against heavy odds. Enough Americans realize this to get him re-elected.
ReplyDeleteTotal number of votes for Trump in New Hampshire this year was the HIGHEST number of all 5 incumbent presidents before him in that state!
ReplyDeleteLVCI 12:51 said:
ReplyDelete"His unhinged tweets are increasing.
BTW: I follow Trump's White House schedule."
This is very telling of why the Left has gone insane.
Tip #1: Lay off the Twitter. It does nothing to further the public discourse, and Trump loves to use it to trigger his opponents on the Left.
Tip #2: Following the President's schedule isn't healthy. Find a hobby. Get a life. If your life revolves around what goes on in Washington (in general), or what the President's daily schedule is, you're doing something wrong.
Geez.
Trump’s tweets are the most effective way for him to bypass the major media outlets that sometimes twist his words and put a negative spin on everything he does. One other way to cut through the attacks is to give direct press conferences outside on the lawn instead of through a spokesperson inside the press room.
ReplyDelete"if Trump was the tyrant/dictator you claim he would never have allowed all the scam attempts to remove him. He would have shut down all of the media opposition."
ReplyDeleteHe has tried. He has referred to the press as "enemy of the people," when that description more properly refers to him. He has suggested revoking the licenses of critical news outlets and referred to a whistleblower as a traitor. He is exacting revenge against those who dared tell the truth.
In a second term, he will be emboldened and will almost certainly cross the line. He is a banana republic dictator.
February 12, 2020 at 3:06 PM Anonymous said... This is very telling of why the Left has gone insane. Tip #1: Lay off the Twitter...Tip #2: Following the President's schedule isn't healthy. Find a hobby. Get a life.
ReplyDeleteI should just ignore him. Stick my head in the sand. Nothing he ever does or says will ever affect me, right?
Pardon me for being as involved citizen. My bad!
He has interfered with the criminal justice system with his henchman Barr. He is a major threat to the republic and sees himself as a modern Caesar.
ReplyDelete7:18/12:04
ReplyDelete"Of course, the market does fluctuate. But, these nest eggs have grown substantially now because of Trump’s financial savvy, domestic and foreign. Take that away and watch what happens."
I'll take it this is trolling at its finest? "Trump's financial savvy" You have any idea of the acceleration of our national debt under Capt. Savvy? Funny how fiscal conservatives have abandon beating that drum under a Republican president. If you trust your nest egg to the market you're crazy. Might as well put that egg in the fireplace and heat the house.
Sorry I couldn't respond sooner, I was being PRODUCTIVE between lunch and now :(
The Fed Chairman is warning people about our burgeoning national debt Have no fears Trumps new budget plans to cut a billions out of Social Security and Medicare. Yeah, he is a real great guy. So seniors your alleged pension is safe for the moment but you will get your Medicare and Social Security slashed. Trump is a proven liar.
ReplyDelete10:05
ReplyDeleteThat would only be to the people that entered our country eleagally and pilfer American systems.
anon 10:46, That is bullsht. It is from Medicare and Social Security, neither go to illegal immigrants. Trump said he will solve his deficit and he will do it on the backs of the senior citizens. He certainly isn't going to do if to his brethren that he gave the tax cuts to. Wake the hell up!
ReplyDeleteTrump has stated over and over he wants to cut out waste, fraud, and abuse from various social welfare programs. He particularly notes the massive abuses going on with Social Security Disability payments to the young and able people with “back problems.”
ReplyDeleteNo one should oppose the kind of cuts/limits being proposed. Unless, of course, you are someone who thinks we have no waste, fraud, and abuse in government.
Decent people don't vote Democrat anymore...
ReplyDelete