Updated: Dent to Step Down! Who's Next?

Charlie Dent

Lehigh Valley Congressman Charlie Dent (R Pa.15) has decided against seeking re-election next year. His full statement, which you can read here, indicates he made this decision over the summer One of the few adults left in Washington, Charlie sad he will continue "giving voice to the sensible center and working to solve problems for the American people through smart policy - the product of negotiation, cooperation and inevitably, compromise."

A seven-term Congressman, Dent has dedicated 27 years of his life to public service.

Dent has previously claimed that authoritarian Donald Trump is "destroying the GOP."

I disagree. Trump is destroying the country, not just the Republican party.

According to Politico, Dent is the third centrist Republican to decide against seeking re-election next year. Washington State's Dave Reichert and Florida's Ileana Ros-Lehtinen are also stepping down.

Justin Simmons, the only announced candidate against Dent so far, is patting himself on the back. "Mission accomplished!" he crows. Known as a negative campaigner, he named his website "simmonsnotdent."

It's a sad day for America when someone as knowledgeable as Charlie decides he's had enough. Who but Charlie would go to bat for a Syrian family being denied admission to this country, despite having permanent resident status?

It's hard to quantify what Dent has meant to this district and country. My own grandson could tell you. I'll tell you that story some other time. Right now, what you want to know is what does all this mean? Will Justin Simmons will be the next Congressman? Will he cruise on, as he seems to think?

Probably not.

Republicans may be angry at Dent, but it's doubtful many of them will support a political opportunist if they have a choice.

They do. Which brings me back to Charlie Dent. He fired back at Simmons' political opportunism, and very publicly showed that Simmons is a hypocrite. Why say anything? He already knew he was stepping down.

The reason, as one political observer suggested to me, is that Charlie has already picked his successor. He was slamming Simmons, not for Charlie's benefit, but to help someone else.

That person is Ryan MacKenzie, a State Representative in South Whitehall. His campaign team has been calling donors to tell them to keep their powder dry. MacKenzie and Simmons really dislike each other, so if MacKenzie runs, this is going to get ugly.

There are also numerous other Republican possibilities. There's Marty Nothstein, a popular Olympic cyclist serving as a Lehigh County Comm'r. There's Dean Browning, a former Lehigh County Comm'r who is now active in the tea party. He was at NorCo Council tonight, urging them to endorse Kate's Law. Then there's State Senator Pat Browne, who would likely beat them all, if he were so inclined.

Democrats have largely avoided Charlie Dent in recent races, offering only token opposition. But a disputed Republican primary with weak candidates like Simmons and MacKenzie is likely to draw some top tier interest.

John Morganelli and Lisa Boscola, conservative Democrats, would easily crush someone like Simmons. Boscola is known as a maverick. Morganelli is one of the few Democrats who will accept invitations from the tea party and get standing ovations when he's done.

Whitehall Mayor Ed Hozza would also be formidable.

There are also "B" level possibilities like Mike "Darth Voter" Schlossberg. But you would need a top tier Democrat to win.

Originally published 9/7/17 at 7:48 pm and updated.