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| Joe Welsh (left) and Judge-elect Sam Murray |
Unofficial results give Murray, an Easton attorney who lives in Hanover Township, a 19,959 to 18,115 edge over Bethlehem attorney Vic Scomillio, who resides in Palmer Township. That's what appears to be an unassailable lead of 1,844 votes. The elections office began its own canvass of the votes on Friday, and should complete its work in about a week, after receiving what it predicts will be a handful of military ballots.
Welsh's strategy was to win big in Bethlehem, Easton and traditional Democratic boroughs, and to "keep it close" in the municipalities around Bethlehem's urban core. He believed Murray would win in a very close election if at least 35,800 people voted. But with the "added benefit" of 72 degree weather, 38,082 people voted in the judicial race.
Murray won big in Bethlehem. He captured every precinct and 66% of the 5,213 votes cast, far beyond his county-wide percentage of 52%. Though Easton is much smaller than Bethlehem, he got 72% of the 2,258 votes cast in the judicial race.
He also did well in what Welsh calls the cap communities around Bethlehem and Easton. He won in Bethlehem Township (1832-1472), a Republican Township that has suddenly turned blue by electing two Democratic Commissioners. Scomillio lost Palmer Township (1543-1483), where he lives, and Murray won a close victory on his home turf in Hanover Township (1130-1093). Murray even won in Williams Township (561-454), which is considered a Republican stronghold.
Murray also won in Freemansburg (139-64), Glendon (24-6), Hellertown (417-258), Lower Mt. Bethel (226-162), Nazareth (427-345), Northampton (617-445), Stockertown (98-78), West Easton (117-58), and Wilson Boro (434-198).
Scomillio won in Allen (331-323) Bangor (295-247), Bath (150-115), Bushkill (640-410), Chapman (20-9), E Allen (400-321), E Bangor (75-38), Forks (1052-973), Lehigh (826-575), Lower Nazareth (488-427), Lower Saucon (1237-922), Moore (908-662), N. Catty (224-204), Pen Argyl (310-204), Plainfield (652-436), Portland (48-24), Roseto (175-105), Tatamy (110-66), Upper Mt Bethel (617-395), Upper Nazareth (398-370), Walnutport (94-86), Washington (364-268) and Wind Gap (170-160).
Bethlehem gave Murray a 1,649 edge. Since he won by 1,844 votes, he clearly won this race in the Christmas City, where he once took Lehigh Little League to the World Series. .
Research:
Scomillio wins Allen (331-323) Bangor (295-247), Bath (150-115), Bushkill (640-410), Chapman (20-9), E Allen (400-321), E Bangor (75-38), Forks (1052-973), Lehigh (826-575), Lower Nazareth (488-427), Lower Saucon (1237-922), Moore (908-662), N. Catty (224-204), Pen Argyl (310-204), Plainfield (652-436), Portland (48-24), Roseto (175-105), Tatamy (110-66), Upper Mt Bethel (617-395), Upper Nazareth (398-370), Walnutport (94-86), Washington (364-268), Wind Gap (170-160)
Scomillio loses Bethlehem Township: 1-1 181-165; 1-2 156-224; 1-3 80-81; 2-1 78-162; 2-2 82-155; 2-3 71-102; 3-1 128-155; 3-2 99-94; 3-3 44-63; 3-4 106-131; 4-1 192-198; 4-2 155-169; 4-3 100-133.
1472 to 1832 in favor of Murray. Vote total 3304. Murray percentage of victory. - 55.4%
Murray win in Bethlehem 1 (73-20), 1S (50-19), 2 (56-13), 3 (46-13), 4 (69-15), 5 (91-27), 6 (136-64), 7 (180-50), 8 (133-45), 9-1 (65-18), 9-2 (38-19), 9-3 (175-65), 14-1 (198-118), 14-2 (280-234), 14-3 (233-166), 14-4 (152-98), 14-5 (204-110), 14-6 (209-129), 14-7 (198-177), 14-8 (174-82), 15-1 (171-71), 15-2 (246-131), 15-3 (133-38), 16 (71-51), 17-2 (34-5), 17-1 (16-4) 3431 to 1,782 in favor of Murray. 5,213 votes. Murray percentage of victory. - 66%
Murray win in Easton. 2 (74-29), 3-2 (271-157), 3-3 (56-28), 3-4 (156-62), 4 (98-46), 5 (60-9), 6 (73-16), 7 (75-23), 8E (88-18), 8W (87-56), 9 (242-62), 10E (53-21), 10W (100-48), 11 (121-39), 12 (69-21) 1,623 to 635 in support of Murray. 2258 votes total. Murray percentage of victory - 72%
Murray wins Freemansburg (139-64), Glendon (24-6), Hanover (1130-1093), Hellertown (417-258), Lower Mt. Bethel (226-162), Nazareth (427-345), Northampton (617-445), Palmer Tp (1543-1483), Stockertown (98-78), West Easton (117-58), Williams (561-454), Wilson Boro (434-198).
Has Scomillio conceded? Is he challenging? What's going on with that?
ReplyDeleteHe as not conceded, which is a tad tacky.
ReplyDeleteI did my part - congratulations Sam. Scomillio should have recognized Murray as the winner, and himself as the loser. Good ship Brownstain claims another victim.
ReplyDeleteTell me you didn't hand-type all of those voting stats!
ReplyDeleteI did. In places like U Mt Bethel and Lower Saucon, where there are several precincts, i added them all up several times. It's a project, but really sheds light, at least in my mind, on where candidates are strong and weak.
ReplyDeleteCute how these people believe the annoying people standing as a gauntlet at the polls influence votes.
ReplyDeleteWhat's that saying: "may the best man win"?
ReplyDeleteHe did!
"Cute how these people believe the annoying people standing as a gauntlet at the polls influence votes."
ReplyDeleteI have heard of studies indicating that posting people outside of polls have a 2% positive effect. In a close race, that is a nice edge to have. I personally have seen both the annoying typess as well as people who really have an impact. Charlie Roberts, for example, could probably turn a precinct around. He did that in BT during the open space referendum.
I think local people who know the voters and can talk to them about their kids and their other interests are very beneficial.
Thank you for crunching the numbers and reporting this in! Wish this was done by the major press but that would actually be reporting which they never do. Big Kudos to you Bernie for the work!
ReplyDeleteBut who stops to chat? I've never seen anyone do anything but take the flyer and deposit it in the trashcan once inside.
ReplyDeleteInteresting analysis. Here's a simpler one: The closest thing to a generic D/R race in Norco would be the Commonwealth Court. Not many voters could idetify Wojick or Lalley in a lineup. It went 51.3/48.7 Sam over performed by about 1%, Barron under performed by about 1%. Sam was a better candidate who ran a better campaign.
ReplyDeleteSam would have had one more vote in Hanover Township if not for my 2-year old daughter. My wife took her into the booth and as she was eating a cookie that one of the nice poll workers had given her, she hit the 'VOTE' button after my wife made just one selection (for PA supreme court). Thankfully, it did not come down to just 1 vote.
ReplyDeleteFunny!
ReplyDeleteAs a Republican Im proud to say I voted for Sam Murray. I like the guy. My vote was two fold. One to send a message to Mr. Brown...... your not gonna get my vote to put out the trash next election as a fellow REPUBLICAN and I would not vote for anyone associated with you or your administration NO MATTER who it is and Sam Murray is definitely the right candidate and I am, glad he won. In reading some of the goings on at the Courthouse this Scomillio guy was Solicitor and was involved the county in? He isn't judge material and should get his job back with the brain child from Bangor.
ReplyDeleteanon 9:49 the MC had all the numbers by precinct in Thursday's paper. Research ten speak.
ReplyDeleteActually, the numbers are available online at Northampton County's election sitte. What made this story a bit more is adding up the totals in each municipality and putting it together to see where Sam was stroing and weak. The newspapers do not do this sort of analysis locally.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the above comment that Mr. Scomillio is not judge material, and probably never will be, no matter how much "experience" he accrues. My impression of him is a shallow hot-shot hustler. He has no sincere aura about him. And, I am hugely surprised that the race was as close as it was. Mr. Murray's fitness for the job seemed an open-and-shut case.
ReplyDeleteDid Scomillio use his cell phone to call Sam Murray to congratulate him on his victory?
ReplyDeleteANON 9;47 Charlie Roberts is one of my hero's he was a bomber pilot and drove his Ford Mustang like a madman ,he was the man .
ReplyDelete