District One: Bethlehem, Freemansburg, Hellertown and Hanover. Incumbent Ken Kraft has already announced his intention to seek re-election on this heavily Democratic district. Though Kraft can be a bit too partisan, he actually contributed to peg Ferraro's Council campaign two years ago. In addition, nobody can cut through the bullshit in contracts like he does. Any Republican who runs in that District will be facing an uphill battle.
District Two: Easton, Forks, Glendon, West Easton, Wilson, Palmer, Stockertown and Tatamy. Though this is thought to be a Democratic district, that really only applies to Easton and the small boroughs around it. The other areas are mostly Republican. Bob Werner is the Council member that Brown barred from a news conference, even though he promised to be good. That alone is a reason to re-elect him. Werner apparently announced last night, but I missed it because I was out with Ron Angle and the Good Mark, stealing Christmas decorations from foreclosed homes in the Slate Belt. Werner may have a formidable foe if former Council President Mike Dowd decides to run.
District Three: Nazareth, North Catty, Northampton, Allen Tp, Bethlehem Tp, East Allen Tp, Lower Nazareth Tp, Lower Saucon Tp and Williams Tp. This district has become much more Republican since the last census, meaning that incumbent Lamont McClure is in trouble. He has been Brown's chied critic, so I'm sure a bull's eye is on his back. Though McClure is partisan, he has been a champion of county workers besieged by benefits cuts. Marty Zawarski, a Bethlehem Tp Comm'r, is rumored to be interested in running. This district also includes former Executive John Stoffa and former Council president John Cusick.
District Four:This is the Slate Belt and northern tier. It is Republican country, but incumbent Scott parsons is fortunate that two Republicans - Nazareth School Board prez Lorin Bradley and tea party darling Matt Dietz - have already announced. Parsons can keep his powder dry while the two Republicans kick the shit out of each other.
Stoffa needs to stay on the sofa, he is no longer wanted. Cusick will run and win in District three.
ReplyDeleteAgree on District three. Matt will win the R primary in district four and glide to victory in heavily Republican four. Lehigh, Moore, twps., solid Republican.
ReplyDeleteDistrict two is really Republican except for Easton. Dowd isn't the guy but the Republican running should beat Werner.
Kraft will probably win in one by default. However, a low Bethlehem turnout can translate to big Republican numbers. Vaughn proved that. Kraft is seen as McClure's puppet, much like Barron.
Overall prediction, Republicans hold county council 7-2 in 2016.
Stoffa is no longer wanted because he was right about selling Gracedale and no tax increase would have been needed along with no outrageous slashing of employee benefits.
ReplyDeleteHe blew the Gracedale scam. Even if he was right, which he wasn't, he could have sold it before the referendum, he had the votes and he blew it. He was incompetent.
ReplyDeleteHe is no longer wanted because the county is tried of his wanting to hang around. He can't stand not be the center of attention. As executive he screwed up the swaption payout costing the county millions and acquired unneeded costly buildings. He squandered a 68 million dollar surplus. He is something we can no longer afford. Lets tell the whole story and be honest about it.
Now go to bed John and get a fricken hobby.
Martin Zawarski lacks the chops and basic knowledge to even be an effective Bethlehem Township Commissioner. He would have absolutely no chance at the County level and be vastly out of his league. He ought to just stay put where he is.
ReplyDeleteI hope all Rs are voted out as a message to JB and crew!
ReplyDeletevote for anyone who wants to eliminate the white elephant gracedale along with it's union thugs
ReplyDeleteDistrict 3: McClure has always been a weak candidate in the past, but perhaps has been in it long enough to evolve into a campaigner? He needs to swim beyond the small circles and connect with more folks beyond daily junk mail if expects enough Dems to actually show up. While Brown has made him look pretty good this year, he's too partisan for most split ticket Rs. He'd have to win solely with Dems, and Indeps unhappy w/NorCo Reps. Would enough actually show up at the polls?
ReplyDeleteMarty Z? Like McC he has the ability and willingness to spend more money than you'd think necessary, and produced some pretty spiffy professional fliers that seemed a little over the top for a local Commissioner race. It would pose a dilemma for Atiyeh as to who to put on his billboard, though, Lamont or Marty-ha.
For the typical voter who doesn't follow County politics closely, and just a vague understanding of Council's role, this match up would certainly keep the mailman busy with all the junk mail--er, campaign literature.
Cusick? If he runs, and gets past the primary, would be the most serious threat to McClure. Unless he's burned some bridges I'm unaware of, he'd obviously get the R vote, and I think enough split-ticket Dems and Independents who find McC too partisan. In a small local way, he's a little like Dent--perceived by many as a centrist, but reliable Repub, but with some cross over appeal.
I say vote all of them out. They have done nothing but play political games and have only made the county worse. Time to give someone else a crack at improving the county.
ReplyDelete1:38 AM Rumor has it there is a local Bethlehem trash hauler who has been in Bethlehem since birth going to take a shot at Kraft's seat. He is a very successful business man, has the right backing, should be interesting.....
ReplyDeleteryan
The slate belt has a Democratic registration advantage, but the Republicans come out to vote at a higher rate. Parsons will probably win because he appeals to both sides. He is a conservative democrat.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, we saw what money can do in this area. Mark Aurand, an unknown with an unpronouceable name, came out of nowhere to beat Parsons. Yea I know that Joe Cap took many of his votes. But it was the MONEY. Aurand spent the most and he spent it in the last week. He sent me more mailers the last week then the other 3 combined.
Then just as Aurand outspent to win, Mario (Scario) Scavello used his vast fortune to crush Aurand. Scavello had been raising money for years. The mailers and signs alone cost more than Aurand, Parsons and Cap spent combined.
So you wanna win, spend the most money. Knocking on doors is over-rated.
Ryan, rumor has it that a local trash hauler is going against the one guy (Kraft) who has stood up for local hauler over single hauler for the past 20 years. Wonder why he would want to run against a vocal supporter like Kraft for his own business?
ReplyDeleteActually Parsons won in the Norco part of the Senate district in that primary. Aurand won Monroe and Joe Cap cut into Parson's strength in the Slate Belt. Either way this district performs very Republican and it will be a tough hold for Scott.
ReplyDeleteQ:Why didn't BO report on the 192 retirements in Lehigh County?
ReplyDeleteA: Doesn't fit his hateful agenda.
McClure is a weak candidate who SHOULD lose against a decent R opponent, but who knows? Any R will have to battle the Brown backlash. The voters feel betrayed by Brown's arrogant antics and incompetence. McClure has been his most vocal critic on council. So voters may send a message to Brown by re-electing one of his most articulate foes.
ReplyDeleteThe "Brown Backlash" is wishful thinking from the same losers who voted for Callahan. The backlash will be against all the whining and wailing from the usual McClure/Barron/SEIU/AFSCME suspects. This is the same crowd that had already planned Callahan's inaugural celebrations before he was handed his electoral ass. R's are crazy, but not stupid. The thought of Rs voting for McClure is preposterous. Funny. But preposterous.
ReplyDeleteMcClure and Barron did not support Callahan even I the General election you are now making stuff up 11:00am
ReplyDelete9:01, I did not report on LC retirements bc i did not know about them.
ReplyDeleteLet me add that workers in Lehigh County are concerned abiut the conservative board, and they have certainly discussed doing some of the things that Brown in NC has done. In both Lehigh and Northampton, employees are registering their displeasure with their employers.
ReplyDeleteOvem, I have not discussed this with mrty, and am only reporting a fairly reliable rumor. Martyis supposedly being encouraged to run by none other than Abe so i think he's decided who to feature on his billboard. he wants someone in there to protect his interest in continuing the West Easton treatment center.
ReplyDeleteKraft is rumored to have a female opponent with very good name recognition from Hanover in the General.
ReplyDelete11:00, R voterswill not vote for McClure, but may stay at home out of disgust for Brown, while the D's will be able to get their base out in opposition to the Brown regime.
ReplyDeleteScott is a common sense guy.Maybe we more like him!Do not under estimate him, he has a lot of support on both sides.He'll be tough to beat.
ReplyDeleteKraft needs to worry about Jim Gregory. If Gregory gets out in time he may run as a Dem in the primary. If he isn't out in time he may run as an independent in the Fall. He was a help to Brown last year and Brown could use him in government.
ReplyDeleteGregory is well known and liked in District One and would get many votes. Either way he would take votes from Kraft and could win.
Cuckoo!!!!
ReplyDeleteAmen.
ReplyDeleteJim Gregory??
ReplyDeleteOh please! I can only hope. A just God would have both Jim Gregory and Ron Angle run the same year. Those two guys are the tops in political theater and clownery. Both great political sideshows unequaled by anyone.
We can only dream.
Can a convicted felon still vote?
ReplyDeleteIs Jim Gregory considered a felon?
ReplyDeleteThree out of four go Republican next year.
ReplyDeleteHow do you figure? Kraft, Werner, and Barnie Rubble should all win.
ReplyDeleteanon 12:59.
ReplyDeleteScott is a Democrat in District four and vulnerable. Ron Angle fatigue beat Ron Angle, as opposed to Parsons winning. Solid Republican wins in a solid conservative Republican District. Up there they do not believe in such a creature as a conservative Democrat.
Werner only winds with phenomenal
Easton turnout, otherwise a good Republican slides in.
As to Kraft, agree, for the moment he is safe.